Pakistani "Dirty" Nukes

Garuda · 05-26-2006, 10:53 AM

Quote:

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2006/20060522/edit.htm#6

The fact that the United States continues to be soft on Pakistan even though its leaders are aware that Pakistan is the epicentre of Jehadi terrorism, is a great puzzle for the Indian government and strategic analysts in India.

The mastermind of the 9/11 attack is a Kuwait born Pakistani. The ISI and Omar Sheikh sent $ 100,000 to Mohammed Atta, the leader of the 9/11 attack. The shoe bomber Richard Reeves and the London train bombers had a Pakistani connection. Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri were permitted to have safe havens in Pakistan and continue to be there.

The US coordinator on counter-terrorism, Henry Crumpton, recently complained about the inadequacy of Pakistani cooperation in hunting down the Taliban and the Al Qaeda. There is evidence of a resurgence of Taliban activity in Afghanistan, mostly with Pakistani help. In spite of all these, General Musharraf continues to be the favourite son of the US administration. He has been able to flout every dictum of President Bush and still is hailed as an ally on the war on terrorism. Why?

For the first time, we are getting a plausible explanation from an American analyst, Tom Donnelly, of the American Enterprise Institute. Donnelly focuses on the US concerns about Pakistani nuclear weapons and nuclear materials. He highlights the role and activities of Dr. A.Q. Khan and his pan-Islamic orientation. He points to the possibility of certain sections of the Pakistani Army and scientific establishment sharing his Pan-Islamic orientation. He draws attention to the US Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) which has a whole section on the threat to the US from loose nuclear weapons and materials getting out of the control of a nuclear weapon state.

Though no state is specifically named, it is quite obvious that the concern is about Pakistan as the QDR refers to a state friendly to US.

Donnelly outlines a plan that the US would perhaps be adopting to deal with such a situation. The plan has all signs of a military briefing. The first assumption is that though the hijacking of a nuclear device or materials may be carried out by a combination of jehadis, extremist oriented sections of the army and the scientific establishment, the Pakistan government and the Army will be with the US and will cooperate in recovering the materials from the jehadi group. This assumption is absolutely basic to the success of the operation. The implication is the situation will be beyond control if the Pakistani government and Army are non-cooperative.

Donnelly’s plan involves deployment of the US Delta force, rangers, infantry and air force elements. The US may have to act alone. While Indian help may be available that will be red rag to the Pakistani government and Army and therefore should be avoided. This operation is detailed in his article in phases and he does not deal with the post recovery phase.

The Donnelly paper needs to be circulated widely and studied in detail by appropriate authorities in India. The important issue that comes out of this article is the imperative need for the US to keep on the right side of General Musharraf and the Pakistani Army because of the existentialist threat of Pakistani nuclear weapons and materials falling into the hands of the jehadis. Because of this compulsion the US has to overlook all transgressions of General Musharraf and the top army leadership. In that sense, the US is under an existential nuclear blackmail by Pakistan.

This gives Musharraf adequate courage to demand economic and military aid and even access to civil nuclear energy from the US, even though he allows a safe haven to Al Qaeda and Taliban leaderships and reneges on all promises to act against jehadis in his country. This existential blackmail has three components- the large scale presence of Jehadis in Pakistan, a reputation for pan-Islamic orientation among intelligence establishments, scientists and the Army, and proved attempts originating in Pakistan and aimed at the US for using WMD. All the three factors exist. There is no need for General Musharraf or any other Pakistani leader to convey any specific blackmail. The signals are all there and the US can read them.

There is no other explanation that can adequately explain the US tolerance of Pakistani behaviour, which has been far more provocative than that of Iran or North Korea. The US also faces an unfamiliar problem. All its nuclear theology was based on the concept of deterrence, which assumed that the adversary valued certain things such as life, property and future of his nation. But the jehadis value nothing and therefore cannot be deterred. Further, the Pakistani leadership deliberately cultivates an image of irrationality. Recently, in an interview, General Aslam Beg elaborated on the advice he had given to the Iranians. Whoever hits Iran, hit Israel and destroy it. He boasted that his strategy for Pakistan was, no matter who hits his country, he would hit India.

In India there is inadequate understanding of the US predicament. The US is in a kind of hostage situation. We should have noticed that there has been very few detailed analyses about reasons underlying the extraordinary permissiveness of the US about Pakistani behaviour. The charges of A.Q. Khan’s CIA linkages have been ignored. Even the monstrous accusation that 9/11 commission members were dealt with by Pakistani lobbyists and persuaded to water down their conclusions evoked no response from the US media or law makers. Pakistan’s defiant non-cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in respect of Iranian proliferation, in which Islamabad is the primary guilty party has been looked away from. In these circumstances, President Bush displayed rare courage in refusing to succumb to the latest blackmail from Pakistan seeking equal treatment with India on access to civil nuclear energy.

How long the US will put up with Pakistani blackmail? Will the US be able to keep blackmail under manageable levels or will it someday or other breach the limits of US tolerance? Will US succeed in democratising Pakistan under these circumstances or will it have to reconcile itself to successive army regimes flaunting its linkages to jehadis? These are the issues that need to be addressed in Indo-US Track II deliberations.

Rather worrying development. Is anybody trying to put the pieces togather?

1. Few loose nukes, probably in Jihadi hands.
2. Gen. Beg's statement (which idirectly hints PA policy) of nuking India if somebody nukes Pakistan (whatever be the source).
3. Discomfort in Washington about the presence of loose nukes.

Scenario 1: Some Jihadi maverick smuggles a crude device to US and triggers a blast. Tens of thousands killed a mid sized city obliterated. Response?

Scenario 2: The loose nuke makes its way to Hamas hands. Detonation inside Israeli territory. Israel nukes Iran?

Scenarion 3: The loose nuke finds a target in India. Response?

Scenario 4: A smart Jihadi detonates the nuke inside Pakistan itself. Pakistan hurls its entire nuclear armoury towards India. Response?

Samudra · 05-26-2006, 11:20 AM

Recall that Musharaff had a fight over NCA with Nawaz Sheriff.

The Pakistani Army proliferates and blames its scientists when its game is up.Will they do the same if a Jihadi delivers a nuke with the approval of PA?

More importantly, will the world buy their story this time?

raj · 05-26-2006, 12:44 PM

sam,
whose tha lady in your avatar, she looks pretty

anand1266 · 05-27-2006, 11:36 AM

one good point there in the article that pakistan is virtually blackmailing abt the possible(or we could say in rare caces)gifting of nukes to extremists , thereby giving musharraf extra strenghth in demanding relief , weaponry , moder planes !!!

but we musnt underestimate USA here... USA must be thinking some plans here to deal with this dangerous situation (or else USA is just stupid) . Remember a pakistani diplomat actually threatened to nuke india if at all india tries to invade her using her superior military strenghth!!!!

i dont agree with one point in the donelly report....if at all nukes are gifted to extremists india shlould never attempt to help USA in the case. Moment these extrimists come to know india is helping USA in finding nukes stolen ....obviously it will be dangerous situation even to imagine ( possible nukes thrown at india

)

so only way to deal with this is to help USA in the mission very very very very secretly , but still a extremely dangerous thing to do.

after all stealing nukes is very difficult. If it has to happen ..permission shld come from musarraf himself coz he controls nuke arsenal there in pakistan.
idont trust musharraf at all....he might gift nukes to extremists one day

UnitedPakistan · 05-27-2006, 11:44 AM

You guys are funny...

He will give nukes to the same people who tried to kill him?

You guys are going to far lengths to destroy our image with your propoganda. The crap you post will remain editorials and news from India. It does not effect the ground realities. Just wait for the mooh thoor jawab!

anand1266 · 05-27-2006, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnitedPakistan

You guys are funny...

He will give nukes to the same people who tried to kill him?

You guys are going to far lengths to destroy our image with your propoganda. The crap you post will remain editorials and news from India. It does not effect the ground realities. Just wait for the mooh thoor jawab!

mooh thod jawab from pakistan....

what a joke

Archer · 05-27-2006, 14:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnitedPakistan

You guys are funny...

He will give nukes to the same people who tried to kill him?

You guys are going to far lengths to destroy our image with your propoganda. The crap you post will remain editorials and news from India. It does not effect the ground realities. Just wait for the mooh thoor jawab!

We are already scared.

Pakistans Muh thoor jawab- "The Whys and Wherefores of Wind: Flatulence Explained"

http://medicalreporter.health.org/tm...ensen0197.html

Ahsan911 · 06-01-2006, 17:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anand1266

mooh thod jawab from pakistan....

what a joke

Joke? Look what your writing. Your own post is a joke than Uniteds posts, he has a point to write, you dont!

anand1266 · 06-04-2006, 07:12 AM

whats so wrong in my post !!!
pak is nothing but an epicentre of terrorism...isnt that an obvious fact.
it will do whatever possible to gain grants from US , whatever ways !!
pak is doomed without US !!

thats what i meant in my post.

and abt the joke !!
if someone asks for moh tod jawab....how can we decline?
and there's no truth in uniteds's post and so is urs.
i didnt post that seeing editorials/articals etc......reason is i dont to consult those...coz everybody in this world knows what pak is worth .
you watch it !!! what u r saying !! and be sure when u come next time!!

Ssg Commando · 07-28-2006, 02:25 AM

Hmmmm.
i think you are not looking on the truth. you says that Pakistan is a terroist country, but first of all what do you think terror is?
if you think terror is to kill Inocent people and kill childrens who cannot speak even their name,kill the women, if you think this is the terrosim then just tell me one thing what are your forces doing in kashmir.
they are killing inocent people. the are killing those who are just childrens,going to their school.women's in their houses.
First think then talk who is terroist and what is terrosim.......???

Ssg Commando · 07-29-2006, 06:06 AM

what happen dont have any answer???

kams · 07-29-2006, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ssg Commando

what happen dont have any answer???

I suggest you watch the program 'Nuclear Jihad' in Discovery Channel, who knows you may learn something. It was not produced by Indians...

SLASH · 07-29-2006, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ssg Commando

what happen dont have any answer???

I actually got confused.Were you talking about Kashmir or Baluchistan

?Than again what they taught you at the madrassa must be true

.

Tronic · 07-29-2006, 13:43 PM

lol... Balochistan... please don't go there... lol, Apache gunships in COIN operations are really bringing the peace to the people there...

Archer · 07-30-2006, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ssg Commando

what happen dont have any answer???

We were all suckered by your magic avatar ..it radiates a green aura that does not allow us to type any hard hitting response...our computers stop working and we are left frozen and trembling in fear...

05-26-2006, 11:20 AM	#2 (permalink)
Samudra *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 09-01-04 Location: North London Posts: 4,437 Country:	Recall that Musharaff had a fight over NCA with Nawaz Sheriff. The Pakistani Army proliferates and blames its scientists when its game is up.Will they do the same if a Jihadi delivers a nuke with the approval of PA? More importantly, will the world buy their story this time? Last edited by Samudra : 05-26-2006 at 11:28 AM.

06-04-2006, 07:12 AM	#9 (permalink)
anand1266 Patron Join Date: 03-06-06 Posts: 154	whats so wrong in my post !!! pak is nothing but an epicentre of terrorism...isnt that an obvious fact. it will do whatever possible to gain grants from US , whatever ways !! pak is doomed without US !! thats what i meant in my post. and abt the joke !! if someone asks for moh tod jawab....how can we decline? and there's no truth in uniteds's post and so is urs. i didnt post that seeing editorials/articals etc......reason is i dont to consult those...coz everybody in this world knows what pak is worth . you watch it !!! what u r saying !! and be sure when u come next time!! Last edited by anand1266 : 06-04-2006 at 15:27 PM.

07-29-2006, 13:43 PM	#14 (permalink)
Tronic Arzi Hukumat-e-Azad Hind *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-27-04 Location: Patiala, India Posts: 5,450 Country:	lol... Balochistan... please don't go there... lol, Apache gunships in COIN operations are really bringing the peace to the people there... __________________ *Nabha Sparasham Deeptam* *-Touch The Sky With Glory*

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05-27-2006, 11:36 AM	#4 (permalink)
anand1266 Patron Join Date: 03-06-06 Posts: 154	one good point there in the article that pakistan is virtually blackmailing abt the possible(or we could say in rare caces)gifting of nukes to extremists , thereby giving musharraf extra strenghth in demanding relief , weaponry , moder planes !!! but we musnt underestimate USA here... USA must be thinking some plans here to deal with this dangerous situation (or else USA is just stupid) . Remember a pakistani diplomat actually threatened to nuke india if at all india tries to invade her using her superior military strenghth!!!! i dont agree with one point in the donelly report....if at all nukes are gifted to extremists india shlould never attempt to help USA in the case. Moment these extrimists come to know india is helping USA in finding nukes stolen ....obviously it will be dangerous situation even to imagine ( possible nukes thrown at india ) so only way to deal with this is to help USA in the mission very very very very secretly , but still a extremely dangerous thing to do. after all stealing nukes is very difficult. If it has to happen ..permission shld come from musarraf himself coz he controls nuke arsenal there in pakistan. idont trust musharraf at all....he might gift nukes to extremists one day

05-27-2006, 11:44 AM	#5 (permalink)
UnitedPakistan Banished Join Date: 04-30-06 Posts: 293	You guys are funny... He will give nukes to the same people who tried to kill him? You guys are going to far lengths to destroy our image with your propoganda. The crap you post will remain editorials and news from India. It does not effect the ground realities. Just wait for the mooh thoor jawab!

07-28-2006, 02:25 AM	#10 (permalink)
Ssg Commando Banished Join Date: 12-12-05 Location: Pakistan Posts: 22	Hmmmm. i think you are not looking on the truth. you says that Pakistan is a terroist country, but first of all what do you think terror is? if you think terror is to kill Inocent people and kill childrens who cannot speak even their name,kill the women, if you think this is the terrosim then just tell me one thing what are your forces doing in kashmir. they are killing inocent people. the are killing those who are just childrens,going to their school.women's in their houses. First think then talk who is terroist and what is terrosim.......???

07-29-2006, 06:06 AM	#11 (permalink)
Ssg Commando Banished Join Date: 12-12-05 Location: Pakistan Posts: 22	what happen dont have any answer???

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