Musharraf’s system is under strain - A commentary

Ray · 03-05-2006, 10:39 AM

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Sunday, March 05, 2006 E-Mail this article to a friend Printer Friendly Version

VIEW: Musharraf’s system is under strain — Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

The Musharraf government has become a victim of its own policies. It undermined the mainstream political parties and leaders, giving more space to the MMA to organise. The same MMA is now improving its political standing by invoking the cartoon issue to pursue its agenda against Pervez Musharraf. There is hardly any political force available to counter the MMA’s enhanced political clout

Pakistan’s politics is moving towards confrontation. Political developments of the last three weeks have demonstrated that the opposition has gained the confidence to challenge the government in the streets. Though the anti-government movement has not yet reached the critical mass to become a sustained nationwide agitation, the diverse opposition is trying to close its ranks to pursue the one-point agenda of dislodging the Musharraf-led, military-dominated political order.

The statements of the leaders of the major alliances, the ARD and the MMA, as well as other political parties show that despite differences in their long-term political agendas, they all agree on rejecting the present political arrangements. They have also expressed doubts about the capacity of the present government to hold fair and free general elections.

President General Pervez Musharraf has responded to the opposition challenge by giving a tough message that the civil administration and the military stand by him. He presided over three important meetings last week to demonstrate his hold over state institutions. These included: a meeting involving top government officials and the bureaucracy on February 27; the corps commanders’ meeting on February 28; and the National Security Council meeting on March 1. The prime minister presided over the federal cabinet meeting on March 2.

The corps commanders issued a tough warning against using the cartoon issue to pursue “political or vested interests”. They declared that they “shall deal with such unscrupulous elements with a stern hand”. The strong political statement confirmed the growing non-professional role of the corps commanders. The government is confident that the support of the civil and military establishment will discourage the opposition from challenging it in the streets.

The opposition is challenging the power structure in Islamabad marked by the overwhelming role of President-Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf. The system leaves very little space for autonomous civilian institutions and processes, pushing mainstream political parties like the PPP and the PML-N to the periphery. The ruling PML and its allies enjoy the freedom to engage in political activities but they have not carved out an autonomous role. They rely on the blessings of President Pervez Musharraf and support of the state apparatus. In the past, the government and the coalition of Islamic parties, the MMA, worked in harmony because of the latter’s power interests in NWFP and Balochistan. The government’s policy of weakening the mainstream political parties also helped the MMA strengthen its political standing.

However, the MMA and Musharraf drifted in opposite directions when the president refused to give up the command of the army on December 31, 2004, as agreed with the MMA in a deal for passing the 17th constitutional amendment. The MMA was also alienated by the government’s policy of ‘enlightened moderation’, registration of Islamic seminaries and expulsion of foreign students enrolled there. It also has strong reservations about the government’s pro-US policies and participation in the US-sponsored global effort to control extremism and terrorism.

Despite these grievances the MMA could not take on the government because it lacked an issue for nationwide mobilisation. Its capacity also suffered on account of the divergent political styles of JUI-F leader Maulana Fazl ur Rahman, who maintained a low-key interaction with the government despite his periodic tirades against it and Jamaat-i-Islami amir Qazi Hussain Ahmad, who has pursued a strident approach towards the government. The latter is more vocal on the cartoon issue and has unambiguously called for Musharraf’s removal from power.

The cartoon issue was a Godsend for the MMA, helping popular mobilisation and reducing the gap between the political styles of the two leaders. The MMA has now turned the movement into an anti-Musharraf drive. By calling for rallies and strikes on Fridays and Sundays it can now keep the political pot boiling.

The anti-Musharraf drive can become a major movement under two conditions. First, the government decides to use state machinery to suppress it, especially because the opposition is expected to increase pressure on the government through street protests. Second, other political parties join the movement. Major elements of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy and Imran Khan’s Tehrik-i-Insaf are already inclined towards the MMA. Their cooperation is expected to increase.

The Musharraf government has become a victim of its own policies. It undermined the mainstream political parties and leaders, giving more space to the MMA to organise. The same MMA is now improving its political standing by invoking the cartoon issue to pursue its agenda against Pervez Musharraf. There is hardly any political force available to counter the MMA’s enhanced political clout.

The PPP and the PML-N are so alienated from the government that they are likely to facilitate the MMA efforts to take on the government. Currently, several PML-N leaders are in detention and the government’s campaign against Benazir Bhutto and her husband continues unabated.

The current government policy of targeting all opposition parties is ill-advised because it will force the latter to join hands on the one-point agenda of removing the current political arrangements. The government cannot overcome this challenge by relying on the state apparatus alone. Its support has greatly declined. It needs credible political support to effectively engage in governance and political management.

The government needs to recognise that it cannot cope with the current challenge without changing the political status quo in Islamabad. The political arrangements initiated in November 2002 have virtually run out of steam. The process of change should be initiated by opening up the political space to the mainstream political parties. They should have a fair opportunity to function under the leaders of their choice.

The government should also work with the major political parties to create a framework for holding fair and free elections under a credible administrative set-up. All political parties must have equal opportunity to contest the elections.

If the opposition movement persists for over a couple of months, it will be difficult for the government to carry on with the support of just the military establishment. Opposition leaders like Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Qazi Hussain Ahmad and Imran Khan are openly criticising the military’s political role. They argue that for participatory, civilian processes to function this role has to be contained. This sort of criticism will increase as others join the anti-government movement, forcing the military establishment to be concerned about the damage to its institutional reputation for supporting an “unpopular” government in office.

US President George W Bush’s visit is not expected to salvage the declining fortunes of the government. Its prospects depend on its ability to pursue cordial interaction with major political parties. Time is running out for a peaceful resolution of the current political standoff. Delay in addressing this issue reduces the government’s options.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...5-3-2006_pg3_2

Could some Pakistani member or anyone else comment on this?

It appears that the Opposition, even if they have got bolder, is on a very sticky wicket with just a silly agenda - topple Musharraf.

It is one thing to topple Musharraf and quite another and more difficult to have a blueprint to lead Pakistan out of the doldrums they themselves have placed Pakistan in!

I am sure there is more to it than such a simplistic agenda.

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