What if - Naval showdown in the English Channel

[1979]

There is a real possibility that the germans might view this as a breach of the armistice and occupy all Continental France in 1940 instead of 1942. The bulk of the french navy surrendered to the Western allies in 1942 after Case Anton, the forces which were in British ports in 1940 were mostly merchant vessels and sub chasers (Courbet being a notable exception ).
edit to add.
Suffren and Lorraine were disarmed until 1943 (at Alexandria).

[zraver]

Sir, by being a victory, you mean the Canadians blow up the ports, devastate the German garrison, then sail off to sunset? I imagine all kinds of fits and rant coming out of the Fuhrer HQ to OKH/OKW generals and enormous resources diverted to fortify Europe earlier than the Germans actually did in historical fact perhaps derailing plans elsewhere.

I am not sure German concrete production will allow that. In August 42 the German's were beginning the fixation on Stalingrad, Hitler was focused on the Soviets a minor raid on the French coast might not have much impact. If it did, Hitler's normal reaction was reprisals. A morelikely responce would be a new mini-blitz over British cities or ports. A mini blitz on Dover in 42 would pose serious challenges for the RAF who still cannot effectively counter the FW-190 A-2 and A-3.

Granted if this escalates, there could be serious problems in Stalingrad as Luftflotte 4 loses bombers and fighters to the West.

[clackers]

The OP posited a faulty premise.
the Luftwaffe getting comparatively stronger every day, the German fleet may have had a decent shot at clearing the channel. Especially if the Germans had more air cover than the Brits. Throw in the u boats and you have the makings of a serious problem for the Royal Navy. What do you think would have happened if there was a Jutland or Trafalgar type battle in 1940? Would the Bismarck and the Tirpitz backed by the rest of the surface combatants, u boats and the Luftwaffe been enough to clear a path for the landing? Would Hitler have traded his surface navy for a beachhead?
The Luftwaffe was not getting comparatively stronger, quite the reverse.
The Bismarck's maiden voyage was in May1941, the Tirpitz wasn't ready yet. The two Scharnhorsts were damaged, and the KM was reduced by Norway. A "Jutland" type battle was beyond the KM in early 1941.
I agree, a Channel battle would have left Germany worse off.

Very much so, Tzimisces.

In 1940, there aren't German torpedo bombers, they've got to use the Stukas that suffered heavy losses over the Channel, and what made up most of the Luftwaffe's KG fleet - twin engined level bombers that rarely sank any ships (for any nation) in WW2.

IIRC, during the Dunkirk evacuation, about one RN destroyer was sunk each three days despite often being in restricted waters or even stationary, short of ammunition and loaded beyond capacity.

The U-boats can't operate in the narrow and shallow English Channel, constantly mined by the RN. After three boats hit mines off the Dover Straits, they spent the rest of the war going round the British Isles to get into the Atlantic. They played virtually no role in D-Day.

In 1940, there was also a series of problems with their standard torpedoes (resulting in running too low or premature detonations) that were just as serious as the ones that plagued the US Silent Service early in the war.

As for the surface fleet, it had been mauled at Norway to the point that the thousands of Sealion barges were to be escorted by just nine or so destroyers.

The leftovers, one heavy cruiser and two light cruisers, were supposed to go into the North Sea to distract without dying the Home Fleet's three or four battleships and battlecruisers, aircraft carrier, two heavy cruisers, three light cruisers and two destroyer flotillas operating out of Scotland.

Hitler thought so poorly of the Kriegsmarine's surface achievements that after the Battle of the Barents Sea (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Barents_Sea) he sacked Admiral Raeder and considered scrapping all ships and recovering the steel from them for armaments, but was talked out of the move by those who said it would represent a huge blow to the nation's prestige.

[wabpilot]

[U-boats] played virtually no role in D-Day.

Not for lack of orders. The problem was the orders the U-boats received were suicidal and the U-boat captains were unwilling to wage war that way. A breakdown of the chain of command? Yes it was. On the other hand we were taught in ROTC to never give an order that we did not think would be obeyed. Thus, FdU West should never have ordered his men to commit suicide. He had a dozen U-boats with snorkels and very good torpedoes. Had those boats been sailed before the invasion rather than waiting for the Allies to establish air superiority as well as sea control they could have inflicted significant damage on the first wave of the invasion fleet. Further, they could have sown fear and confusion as DDs and DEs rushed about trying to find the U-boats.

[clackers]

Had those boats been sailed before the invasion rather than waiting for the Allies to establish air superiority as well as sea control they could have inflicted significant damage on the first wave of the invasion fleet. Further, they could have sown fear and confusion as DDs and DEs rushed about trying to find the U-boats.

It would have been suicide, Wabpilot. Those waters are deathtraps for subs, as 23 of the 48 that tried to do anything found .... Google maps of where some of them sunk are here:

uboat.net - The U-boat War in Maps - The English Channel

and background as follows:

HyperWar: ULTRA in the Atlantic: U-Boat Operations [Chapter 11]

[wabpilot]

It would have been suicide, Wabpilot.

Not for the snorkel boats. Of course, if you hadn't selectively read what I wrote, that would have been obvious.

[clackers]

As you can see, Wabpilot, the U-boats tried, they died.

I don't know how many of them were snorkel ones ... about half in the French bases had completed the conversion by D-Day.

The problems are not patrolling in the open ocean subject to lone Allied flying patrols (whose radar normally detected subs at 10km, and even snorkels at 5km).

The problems are asking any slow boat, snorkel or not, to penetrate a shallow body of water effectively sealed at both ends (see Operation Maple - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) and survive against a massive force of naval vessels and their escorts.

And, yes, they had air cover too. The Home Fleet ensured that patrols from three escort carriers and RAF's Coastal Command maintained close surveillance over the Channel.

[wabpilot]

As you can see, Wabpilot, the U-boats tried, they died.

You really don't know what you are writing about. Next.

[ArmchairGeneral]

You're both right. If they'd sailed beforehand, they could have been waiting in place, and probably could have been much more lethal. But it probably would still have been suicide for many, if not most of the subs.

[Officer of Engineers]

You really don't know what you are writing about. Next.

Another case of a bookwarm telling a combat veteran his job.

You're both right. If they'd sailed beforehand, they could have been waiting in place, and probably could have been much more lethal. But it probably would still have been suicide for many, if not most of the subs.

No. There mere presence of u-boats would require the RN to start conducting ASW operations before the first cargo ship arrive on the scene.

[clackers]

You really don't know what you are writing about. Next.

Sorry history got in the way of your U-boat fantasy, Wabpilot!

[ArmchairGeneral]

No. There mere presence of u-boats would require the RN to start conducting ASW operations before the first cargo ship arrive on the scene.

How does that contradict what I said? More effective, still dead.

[Officer of Engineers]

How does that contradict what I said? More effective, still dead.

At the very least, it would delay the cargo ships entry into port. At worst, the u-boats concentrated the RN's efforts into one single area, allowing other wolf packs to have freer reign on now unescourted convoys.

[fredleander]

Hi,

Ive always been curious to know what may have happened if Hitler had been a little more "sea minded". What if he had assembled the German fleet and headed for a showdown with the Brits? At the height of the battle of attrition (before they started bombing cities), with the RAF fighting for its life and the Luftwaffe getting comparatively stronger every day, the German fleet may have had a decent shot at clearing the channel. Especially if the Germans had more air cover than the Brits. Throw in the u boats and you have the makings of a serious problem for the Royal Navy. What do you think would have happened if there was a Jutland or Trafalgar type battle in 1940? Would the Bismarck and the Tirpitz backed by the rest of the surface combatants, u boats and the Luftwaffe been enough to clear a path for the landing? Would Hitler have traded his surface navy for a beachhead?

In 1940 neither Tirpitz, Bismarck nor Prinz Eugen were commissioned. Gneisenau was under repairs till Spring '41.

[fredleander]

Very much so, Tzimisces.

In 1940, there aren't German torpedo bombers, they've got to use the Stukas that suffered heavy losses over the Channel, and what made up most of the Luftwaffe's KG fleet - twin engined level bombers that rarely sank any ships (for any nation) in WW2..

Not exactly correct. The Küstenfliegers were operational with torpedoes on both the He115, He59 and Arado 95. The Stuka force was withdrawn in august to replenish for Sealion. End of September they were more than 300.

IIRC, during the Dunkirk evacuation, about one RN destroyer was sunk each three days despite often being in restricted waters or even stationary, short of ammunition and loaded beyond capacity..

Approximately 200 ships were sunk by the Luftwaffe during the Dunkirk evacuation alone, In addition to many others before and after. Hundreds were damaged. 19 destroyers were sent to the wharfs.

The U-boats can't operate in the narrow and shallow English Channel, constantly mined by the RN. After three boats hit mines off the Dover Straits, they spent the rest of the war going round the British Isles to get into the Atlantic. They played virtually no role in D-Day..

That was before France was occupied and minefields sweeped. 1940 differed very much from 1944. The English Channel has an average depth of approx. 120 meters, deepest 200 meters. Even the narrowest part is 44 meters deep.

In 1940, there was also a series of problems with their standard torpedoes (resulting in running too low or premature detonations) that were just as serious as the ones that plagued the US Silent Service early in the war..

This problem was mainly experienced during the Scandinavian campaign due to the special magnetic conditions up north. Everybody had problems with their torpedoes at this stage but the Germans still sank more than 1.000.000 tons of shipping in the four months before the planned Sealion.

As for the surface fleet, it had been mauled at Norway to the point that the thousands of Sealion barges were to be escorted by just nine or so destroyers..

On Sept. 27th there were available in the Channel 9 heavy German destroyers (the 10th arrived in October), 8 Raubtier/Raubvogel destroyers and 12 T-boats - light destroyers. These were all placed on the western side of the Channel. The whole S-boat fleet was stationed at the eastern side. In addition to these were nineteen 800 tons M35 minesweepers and some smaller ones and a couple of hundred Patrol Boats - Vorposten-boote. The number of barges on the first invasion day was planned to be 1.150. Ready to defend against this was approx. 10 RN destroyers on each side of the landing areas (none in Dover).

The leftovers, one heavy cruiser and two light cruisers, were supposed to go into the North Sea to distract without dying the Home Fleet's three or four battleships and battlecruisers, aircraft carrier, two heavy cruisers, three light cruisers and two destroyer flotillas operating out of Scotland..

This planned operation was "Herbstreise". With the mentioned units were 3 F-boats - light escorts, 4 former Norwegian light destroyers an 9 older light destroyers.