What if - Naval showdown in the English Channel

[Tzimisces]

The KM did lose heavily in the Norway campaign, which is what I think zraver was alluding to. Loss of surface ships didn't affect Germany near as much as it did England, who was utterly dependent on the sea. A serious loss of men and material would certainly have affected the course of 1941, but I seriously doubt England could have tried to liberate France in 1941.
I don't think that the Dunkirk pocket could have held. Supplies and reinforcements would have had to come by sea in the face of the Luftwaffe. England had a choice of evils-surrender or be destroyed. (Or, of course, evacuation)
England was certainly chronically short of ships, and losses in our scenario would of course have had an adverse effect on English strategy.

[Officer of Engineers]

Then, again, what is the difference from real history? There has to be a reason for either the KM or the RN to offer battle and attrition ain't it. The KM more often than not refused battle until cornered (the BISMARK) because it would lose the attrition fight long before it would begin.

The only compelling reason for the KM to accept battle would be in support of SEALION and again, that was a disaster waiting to happen in which case, the strategic picture would have more than shift to the British favour.

[Tzimisces]

Sealion was only viable if the Luftwaffe could gain air superiority (it may well have never been viable the way it was planned). The limitations of the aircraft available to the Germans made that a very difficult prospect, and by the Spring of '41 it was no longer realistic. Rather than wondering about Sealion, a better question might be "How could the Luftwaffe have won the Battle of Britain?"

[Officer of Engineers]

It is a legitimate question but it does not answer the original question, would the KM be worst off with a channel battle than original history? I think I have answered, yes.

[Tzimisces]

The OP posited a faulty premise.
the Luftwaffe getting comparatively stronger every day, the German fleet may have had a decent shot at clearing the channel. Especially if the Germans had more air cover than the Brits. Throw in the u boats and you have the makings of a serious problem for the Royal Navy. What do you think would have happened if there was a Jutland or Trafalgar type battle in 1940? Would the Bismarck and the Tirpitz backed by the rest of the surface combatants, u boats and the Luftwaffe been enough to clear a path for the landing? Would Hitler have traded his surface navy for a beachhead?
The Luftwaffe was not getting comparatively stronger, quite the reverse.
The Bismarck's maiden voyage was in May1941, the Tirpitz wasn't ready yet. The two Scharnhorsts were damaged, and the KM was reduced by Norway. A "Jutland" type battle was beyond the KM in early 1941.
I agree, a Channel battle would have left Germany worse off.

[Bill]

I think those talking about U boats and an extended happy time are missing the original strategic setup that i described, whereupon ALL the U boats are commited to this mega-channel battle and the destruction of the RN.

This is an all or nothing fight.

[zraver]

I think those talking about U boats and an extended happy time are missing the original strategic setup that i described, whereupon ALL the U boats are commited to this mega-channel battle and the destruction of the RN.

This is an all or nothing fight.

Bill, at the time of the BoB, the Germans and Italians had about 55 ocean going subs between them, most of them Italian. The extended happy times I am talking about is post battle U-boat construction.

[Bigfella]

Just a point on the Italian fleet (I saw it mentioned somewhere). Even if it had been aboe to clear Gibraltar it wouldn't have been the weapon some might believe. its ships were designed for sailing in the Med. Apparently they would have fared poorly in the heavier waters of the Atlantic - at the very least handling poorly, at worst struggling to say afloat. This was particularly true for ships such as destroyers.

[zraver]

Just a point on the Italian fleet (I saw it mentioned somewhere). Even if it had been aboe to clear Gibraltar it wouldn't have been the weapon some might believe. its ships were designed for sailing in the Med. Apparently they would have fared poorly in the heavier waters of the Atlantic - at the very least handling poorly, at worst struggling to say afloat. This was particularly true for ships such as destroyers.

The scenario required that the RN has already lost the med and Gibraltar, maybe the frogmen did exceptionally well.... The heavier Italian ships and even the destroyers would have done fine in the summer around the English Channel.

[Dreadnought]

We are still discussing and answering the original scenario asked? Just wanted to check before reply.

However several questions apply:

Did the French fleet escape Oran and Dakar in 1940? Not to bore ass but there is alot of scenerio that can happen with the possibilities metioned in post #1.

I mean that you mention if Hitler had been more "sea minded". What if in even a smaller possibility the French Commanders dropped their pride and bolted with the ships after this warning instead of scuttling them and having them sunk in port by the British and instead they landed in British ports.
They would have added alot to the Britsh already number superiority and strength and some of these ship were pretty modern for the era along with some of their subs. In addition to this you also had some USN heavy elements already within the Royal Navy at the time.

Having sailed for British ports they would have been supplied/repaired by the Western allies (as history has shown) where as Hitlers Navy was still stretching further and further away from their main sources of resource.

Many questions......Many possibilities..

[Officer of Engineers]

We seen to be going off on a tangent and I can see both sides. I have to ask, what would been the result had Dieppe been a victory?

[Triple C]

Sir, by being a victory, you mean the Canadians blow up the ports, devastate the German garrison, then sail off to sunset? I imagine all kinds of fits and rant coming out of the Fuhrer HQ to OKH/OKW generals and enormous resources diverted to fortify Europe earlier than the Germans actually did in historical fact perhaps derailing plans elsewhere.

[Officer of Engineers]

I can also see Hitler having his hissy fits and demand the KM launch a counter raid just as he did the bombing of London after the bombing of Berlin, perhaps launching SEALION himself.

[Triple C]

Wich wold be totally insane and get SS regiments ripped to ribbons. Speaking of which, since Nazi hold over German people was by no means secure at this point, it's possible AH would face a real political crisis.

[Bigfella]

We are still discussing and answering the original scenario asked? Just wanted to check before reply.

However several questions apply:

Did the French fleet escape Oran and Dakar in 1940? Not to bore ass but there is alot of scenerio that can happen with the possibilities metioned in post #1.

I mean that you mention if Hitler had been more "sea minded". What if in even a smaller possibility the French Commanders dropped their pride and bolted with the ships after this warning instead of scuttling them and having them sunk in port by the British and instead they landed in British ports.
They would have added alot to the Britsh already number superiority and strength and some of these ship were pretty modern for the era along with some of their subs. In addition to this you also had some USN heavy elements already within the Royal Navy at the time.

Having sailed for British ports they would have been supplied/repaired by the Western allies (as history has shown) where as Hitlers Navy was still stretching further and further away from their main sources of resource.

Many questions......Many possibilities..

DN,

Some of them were already in British ports - In the UK & Alexandria that I am aware of. They surrendered to British authorities. I don't know if the ships were turned over to the Free French pr simply sat out the war. i suspect the former.