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  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    What got my attention was the 59% infected. This means 7% were either presymptomatic or asymptomatic.
    Nah, 48% of cases were asymptomatic, which is in line with the 50% number.

    Among crew:
    - 714 (41%) not infected
    - 545 (31%) infected and symptomatic
    - 501 (28%) infected and asymptomatic

    On the Diamond Princess people were in single and double cabins, easy to isolate from each other. On the Charles de Gaulle people sleep cramped in 20-man bunk quarters for enlisted.

    For the two other ships that were part of CdG's battle group it ran different:
    • the air defense destroyer Chevalier du Paul had a 10% infection rate (35 cases among 340 crew), suggested to be due to more spacious and separated crew quarters.
    • supply ship Somme apparently lucked out during the port visit and had exactly zero infections.


    Preventive measures taken onboard apparently also included questionaires for all crew members regarding where they were and who they met during the port visit. Based on that 350 crew members onboard CdG (and 60 on Somme) were placed under medical observation, checking for symptoms twice a day.
    Last edited by kato; 25 Apr 20,, 09:34.

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    • This house in Germany will be fenced in tomorrow morning:

      Click image for larger version

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      Two families - eight people - living in it are Covid-19 positive. They did not observe their formally ordered quarantine and still moved within the house and met neighbors. As a result the 450 other people living in this house will now "voluntarily" be tested. Voluntarily as in they put a fence around it and if you're not tested negative you're not getting out.

      The two families have been "moved to another location where health agency officials can ensure they observe their quarantine".

      Comment


      • Originally posted by kato View Post
        Nah, 48% of cases were asymptomatic, which is in line with the 50% number.

        Among crew:
        - 714 (41%) not infected
        - 545 (31%) infected and symptomatic
        - 501 (28%) infected and asymptomatic
        Hrm, let do this again

        Originally posted by kato View Post
        The carrier had 1760 people onboard. Of these 1046 (59%) were tested Covid-19 positive, with 545 symptomatic (52% of infected). The number of hospitalized was initially 24, but is slowly rising (31 as of yesterday). Two men are currently in critical condition.
        1760 (total) - 1046 (positive) = 714 (not infected)

        1046 (positive) - 545 (symtomatic) = 501 (asymptomatic)

        501 (asymptomatic) from 1046 (positive) is 48% of the infected

        Fauci said over 50% tested were asymptomatic, my guy said 67%, so we're in the right ball park.

        The burning question is how many can those asymptomatic infect in turn ?

        If they're asymptomatic, their viral load is low. Not so low as to be undetected but it does make me wonder they cannot be shedding as much to infect as many as one with symptoms.

        Symptomatic can infect others that may turn symptomatic or remain asymptomatic. Same with Asymptomatic infecting others.

        What does the research say ?

        How far can someone without symptoms spread the Covid-19 infection? | IE | Apr 24 2020

        Last week, a study from China concluded that 44% of the cases who had contracted the disease had caught it from an asymptomatic person. They estimated that viral shedding, which is when a person infects another, starts happening two to three days before the onset of symptoms.

        “We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25-69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home,” reported the researchers, including from Guangzhou Medical University and the World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, at the University of Hong Kong. The study was published in Nature Medicine.
        They are just as likely as one with symptoms to infect others : (

        Originally posted by kato View Post
        On the Diamond Princess people were in single and double cabins, easy to isolate from each other. On the Charles de Gaulle people sleep cramped in 20-man bunk quarters for enlisted.

        For the two other ships that were part of CdG's battle group it ran different:
        • the air defense destroyer Chevalier du Paul had a 10% infection rate (35 cases among 340 crew), suggested to be due to more spacious and separated crew quarters.
        • supply ship Somme apparently lucked out during the port visit and had exactly zero infections.


        Preventive measures taken onboard apparently also included questionaires for all crew members regarding where they were and who they met during the port visit. Based on that 350 crew members onboard CdG (and 60 on Somme) were placed under medical observation, checking for symptoms twice a day.
        That should make believers of sceptics of the power of socio-spatial distancing.

        It reduces the odds of infection to a sixth of the risk otherwise.

        The chance of getting infected on the destroyer Chevalier du Paul is 1 in 10 but on the carrier CDG it was close to 2 in 3 !!

        I suppose no masks of any description were available for the sailors.

        A Japanese virologist who visited the Diaomond Princess at the time said no proper quarantine measures were taken. I suppose he thought 15% of the total getting infected was a disaster. It is but when compared to the CDG not so bad.
        Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Apr 20,, 23:57.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by kato View Post
          This house in Germany will be fenced in tomorrow morning:

          [ATTACH]48560[/ATTACH]

          Two families - eight people - living in it are Covid-19 positive. They did not observe their formally ordered quarantine and still moved within the house and met neighbors. As a result the 450 other people living in this house will now "voluntarily" be tested. Voluntarily as in they put a fence around it and if you're not tested negative you're not getting out.

          The two families have been "moved to another location where health agency officials can ensure they observe their quarantine".
          Wuhan style sealed. How long for ?

          But note its only this building that will be sealed off and not the smallest administrative unit in which this building is located.

          If there are not much cases in the surrounding buildings then all good ?
          Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Apr 20,, 23:59.

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          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            I suppose no masks of any description were available for the sailors.
            Click image for larger version

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            They had masks, and were wearing them after they had suspect cases and started isolating them. Photo taken on the bridge on April 10th.

            The fourth ship of the carrier battle group, the ASW frigate La Motte-Picquet (on her last cruise before retirement) also had zero cases like Somme. La Motte-Picquet had already left Brest separately on January 27th (for an arctic patrol) and only joined the carrier group enroute around Denmark in late march without taking part in the suspect port visit.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Wuhan style sealed. How long for ?
              Residents tested negative may leave it after their results are announced in 2-3 days, until then they have to stay in their apartments (not roam around the house). Anyone who refuses testing gets a default 2-week quarantine.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by kato View Post
                [ATTACH]48562[/ATTACH]
                They had masks, and were wearing them after they had suspect cases and started isolating them. Photo taken on the bridge on April 10th.
                Not quite

                there are signs that the vessel was insufficiently prepared for a pandemic that had already laid waste to passengers on several cruise ships around the world. The navy vessel had no masks until late into its mission, and the ship’s command relaxed social distancing rules at a critical point, officials later acknowledged.

                Crucially, military officials now say, restrictions for the crew may have been too lax during a mid-March stop in Brest, on the Atlantic Coast, where sailors were allowed to go ashore, meet family and visit restaurants and shops. That was right before France went into full lockdown, as the number of deaths and cases tied to the virus was still low.

                But it was after President Emmanuel Macron had called the epidemic France’s “most serious health crisis in a century” and the authorities had already banned large gatherings and insisted on social distancing.
                They left Brest on Mar 16, observed social distancing. Two weeks later or end March they pick up masks in Denmark.

                After the ship left Brest, the captain canceled some daily functions and briefings and shut social gathering areas, according to the navy spokesman. Seating in cafeterias, for instance, was spaced out.

                But after 14 days and no visible coronavirus cases, the captain, thinking that the vessel was in the clear, loosened some of those restrictions.

                Like most of France, the ship faced a mask shortage, Captain Lavault said, noting that there were none onboard until it stopped in Denmark in late March, when tens of thousands of masks were brought on.

                Adm. Christophe Prazuck, the head of the French Navy, said on Saturday that the measures onboard were “obviously circumvented” by a “stealthy, insidious virus” and that “we must understand what happened.”

                “Were they badly designed?” Admiral Prazuck told Europe 1 radio. “Were they badly applied? Were they badly verified? Or did the virus bypass it all?”
                Hmm, they followed social distancing for two weeks, then got the masks and then took it easy wearing masks.

                So the virus has spread during the time they were without masks. The ventilation can't be that great on a ship. Spaces are cramped so how well can you follow social distancing any way. Nothing is said about how close they were sleeping. Just that there was spacing in the cafeteria.

                Originally posted by kato View Post
                The fourth ship of the carrier battle group, the ASW frigate La Motte-Picquet (on her last cruise before retirement) also had zero cases like Somme. La Motte-Picquet had already left Brest separately on January 27th (for an arctic patrol) and only joined the carrier group enroute around Denmark in late march without taking part in the suspect port visit.
                Lucky
                Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Apr 20,, 01:35.

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                • They're calling this the Kasargod Initiave. Quite brutal. Bhilwara like. But the outbreak has been contained in the district.

                  No double riding means no pillion or they impound the bike.

                  On the 2nd of April, Kasaragod had 127 confirmed COVID cases (Mumbai had 185). Since April 16th there have been 0 new cases in Kasaragod! How to #FlattenTheCurve? Everyone can learn from #KasaragodInitiative - it's a blueprint.
                  The histogram shows daily new cases. The graph shows moving average.

                  I guess this how we're going to fight this thing. District by district. Village by village. House by house.

                  How Kerala’s Kasaragod has fought coronavirus | IE | Apr 21 2020
                  Attached Files
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Apr 20,, 03:55.

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                  • Wanted to get back to the USS Theodore Roosevelt AC and how its sailors fared compared to the ones on the CDG.

                    We never got to talk about figures because the conversation quickly moved to the controversy with the ships captain and the Navy secretary.

                    Crew 4,845

                    Infected , 856, as of Apr 24, including the ships commander

                    That is a ~18% infection rate so 1 in 5. They seemed to have fared better than the CDG. One death. Four in the hospital.

                    They had no masks whatsoever yet the infection rate is quite low.

                    TR arrives in Da Nang on Mar 5, leaves on Mar 9, arrives in Guam Mar 27, so 18 days at sea.

                    CDG left Brest on Mar 16 and arrived back in Toulon on Apr 12, so 27 days at sea.


                    The Battle of USS Theodore Roosevelt: a Timeline | Defense one | Apr 07 2020

                    How the heck did this virus get onboard !

                    Question was asked at the briefing on Apr 01

                    Q: When we asked about this last week you said that you had no evidence that it was the port visit to Vietnam. Have you changed your assessment in light of the exponentially rising numbers? And was it the letter from the captain that caused you to start to take – move faster to remove people from the ship? And is the captain going to be punished for having raised this in very stark terms?

                    SEC. MODLY: The port call. We don’t have any forensics that would indicate that that was what caused or brought the virus onto the ship.

                    As I mentioned, when the crew came back on the ship we tested certain members that we thought might have an issue. None of those tests came back positive. So as I said before, we also had crew members flying on and off the ship from the air wing, so we’re not really sure where it could have come – someone could have brought it with them from San Diego when the ship actually deployed.

                    We just don’t know. Once the virus gets on a ship like that it’s going to spread, and it’s hard to tell where it actually started
                    Hmm...

                    ADM. GILDAY: Yeah, it was a risk-informed decision to go into Vietnam. So at the time there were about 15 or 16 cases that were up north in Hanoi and the ship pulled into Da Nang. Today there are 203 cases in Vietnam and no deaths. So just to put that in perspective, the WHO has graded Vietnam very highly across 12 or 13 different categories in terms of their reaction pretty early on and their ability to sustain that.

                    As the secretary mentioned, the ship deployed in mid-January. So prior to that period most of the crew and the air wing were off on pre-movement leave, so that would have been over the holiday period. So there could have been asymptomatic cases onboard at some point. There was also a port visit to Guam in February when she was – had been at sea for about a month.

                    So there are other vectors, of course, in which COVID could have been introduced to the ship.

                    Understanding exactly who patient zero is is probably going to be an impossible task. So we are doing our very best to prioritize those that are first tested, those that are symptomatic. And as the secretary mentioned in his numbers, of the 93 cases you have 86 that are symptomatic, which is indicative of the fact that those that are symptomatic go into the head of the line in terms of testing.
                    What we can learn from the Theodore Roosevelt outbreak | San Diego UT | Apr 26 2020

                    Asymptomatic were 50% of the tested. Funny how consistent that number is.

                    If the infected are younger and healthier then the share of asymptomatics increases in a given population. CDC said 25% but on the ship its 50%

                    The Roosevelt pulled into Guam March 28 as the virus spread out-of-control among its crew. The first two cases of the virus were found among two members of the ship’s air wing, a Navy official told the Union-Tribune. However, because the two cases came to light 15 days after a port visit to Vietnam, The Navy’s surgeon general, Rear Adm.Gillinghan could not say how the virus got on board.

                    The Navy expected its survey of the crew to finish Friday. Results from the CDC are not due for at least one month.
                    Did the air wing bring it on ? Meaning it was not contracted in Vietnam.

                    Vietnam isn't a place with much of an outbreak. And on Mar 05 there would be a handful. The time is too little for this much spread to take place by Mar 28 when they started off loading.

                    It was brought on by asymptomatic air wing members earlier on and had a good month to spread.

                    The ship deployed in Mid Jan. How could members have caught it that early ?

                    The first confirmed C19 case in the US was Jan 21 2020.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Apr 20,, 21:59.

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                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      TD arrives in Da Nang on Mar 5, leaves on Mar 9, arrives in Guam Mar 27, so 18 days at sea.
                      CDG left Brest on Mar 16 and arrived back in Toulon on Apr 12, so 27 days at sea.
                      For the caseload of TD you need a daily expansion of average +50% over the rise of the previous day, assuming an onset two days after the relevant port visit (maximum viral load shedding). And yes, those +50% are on the high side compared to landside numbers.

                      Interestingly with those same +50% for CdG you get about 86 cases by March 29th. Half of these would be symptomatic, i.e. 43. The crew of CdG isolated "about 40" symptomatic crew members around that time, fitting right in there numbers-wise. After March 29th for CdG the expansion rate - among the non-isolated, with simple protective measures like masks - drops to an average +25% over the previous day, i.e. the infection reproduction rate is reduced by one-sixth.

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                      • Always helps to have first hand experience with what you are talking about. I know of someone else who could benefit from some first hand experience even though he has a pre-existing condition of obesity.

                        https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/uk/bo...gbr/index.html

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                        • Unpacking time : )

                          Originally posted by kato View Post
                          For the caseload of TD you need a daily expansion of average +50% over the rise of the previous day, assuming an onset two days after the relevant port visit (maximum viral load shedding). And yes, those +50% are on the high side compared to landside numbers.
                          For TR, 856 (infected) out of 4,845 (total)

                          TR arrives in Da Nang Mar 5, leaves Mar 9, arrives in Guam Mar 27, so 18 days at sea.

                          Take away two days leaves us 16 days.

                          To get to 856 requires almost ten doublings. ~29.75

                          This assumes just one person brought it aboard.

                          If there were two or more infected it becomes more feasible.

                          TR case load doubled at the rate of once every 39 hours


                          Originally posted by kato View Post
                          Interestingly with those same +50% for CdG you get about 86 cases by March 29th. Half of these would be symptomatic, i.e. 43. The crew of CdG isolated "about 40" symptomatic crew members around that time, fitting right in there numbers-wise. After March 29th for CdG the expansion rate - among the non-isolated, with simple protective measures like masks - drops to an average +25% over the previous day, i.e. the infection reproduction rate is reduced by one-sixth.
                          For CDG, 1,040 (infected) out of 1,760 (total)

                          CDG arrives at Brest Mar 13 and leaves Mar 16 and returns to Toulon, Apr 12, so 27 days at sea.

                          Unlike TR, 60 new sailors came on board the CDG in Brest. This increases the number of suspects in addition to those that were allowed to go on shore.

                          Mar 16 to Mar 29 the CDG has no masks for 13 days

                          Take the TR's doubling rate of once every 39 hours and by Mar 29 the CDG should have just 256 infected

                          They get masks on Mar 29 and are at sea until they return on Apr 12 which is 14 days

                          How do you get to to 1,040 from 256 in 14 days wearing masks ? not possible.

                          The masks they are wearing appear to be dust masks, they're not N95 grade for sure.

                          Maybe slow the transmission rate down by a third ?

                          That means five sixths or 866 would have to be infected by the time they reached Denmark

                          Mar 16 to Mar 29 is 13 days, the doubling rate is once every 32 hours.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Apr 20,, 23:50.

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                          • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                            Always helps to have first hand experience with what you are talking about. I know of someone else who could benefit from some first hand experience even though he has a pre-existing condition of obesity.

                            https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/uk/bo...gbr/index.html
                            I see a common theme here from the opposition across countries, verbatim.

                            a) Govt didn't act fast enough or take it seriously in time.
                            b) Shortage of PPE & ventilators bla bla.
                            c) Lock down too restrictive and overly long due to (a)

                            Another theme of criticism has been the failure of the UK government to share its thinking with the country on how lockdown restrictions would be lifted. Johnson said such decisions would be taken with "the maximum possible transparency."
                            When will the lock down be lifted is what every one wants to know. We won't be drawing away the curtain and letting the light in that's for sure. It's going to be phased. And the duration of those phases is as yet unknown.

                            In the medium term, concerts, movie theatres aren't coming back any time soon. No idea how to enforce distancing in these venues unless they agree to max 20% occupancy. Restaurants will have to maintain spacing for at least a year.

                            We're not shaking hands and will be wearing masks at least for a year from now.

                            The second wave will be as the weather gets colder ie. next winter. Now is the time to prepare for it.

                            All of this assumes no vaccine available for at least a year.

                            That is to say it will take as long for testing to show it is effective and safe for mass adoption.

                            Whatever second wave that comes with phased relaxation of present restrictions will be smaller than the first peak experienced so far.

                            Because a fair amount of people have been quarantined as infected and people are more aware of distancing norms
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Apr 20,, 00:23.

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                            • India coronavirus: The man giving dignified burial to Covid-19 victims

                              Great guy.
                              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                              • This comes as a big surprise as i thought one of the key symptoms of the disease was fever. As in no fever with breathlessness then not C19

                                Most coronavirus patients in Karnataka who died had no fever | DH | Apr 30 2020

                                Suraksha P, DHNS, Bengaluru, APR 30 2020, 00:34 IST
                                UPDATED: APR 30 2020, 19:41 IST

                                A COVID-19 mortality panel of specialists appointed by Karnataka government to probe all 21 virus deaths has found that most patients did not have fever but had cough and breathlessness.

                                The panel has been tasked to answer questions like why the mortality rate in Kerala is less than in Karnataka. They are studying gaps in treatment and how various district administrations can avoid delays in starting treatment.

                                Dr K S Sathish, pulmonologist at Vikram Hospital, who is part of the panel, said, “What is striking is most patients who died, did not have fever. They only had cough and breathlessness. It is already known that most were above the age of 60 and had co-morbidities. It was assumed that breathlessness was due to a pre-existing disease, for example a heart ailment.”

                                “We are looking at the reason for death, gaps in detection, delay in patient arrival, what we could have done and what we can recommend district administrations and peripheries where there are no experts and what appropriate treatment they should give if there are gaps. There should be a uniform proforma for the information that should be filled in. We have been asked why there are more deaths here than in Kerala,” he added.

                                Dr S Sachidanand, vice-chancellor of Rajiv Gandhi University of Health Sciences (RGUHS), who heads the mortality panel, told DH, “We are looking at whether something could have been done to save the patients. Critical aspects like when a patient can be put on a ventilator or intubated. It is not to find fault. Sometimes, patients may have come in at the last minute or must have delayed his/her treatment. We are not saying there is negligence but we are checking if the protocol was followed.”

                                The panel is yet to get case sheets of 10 patients from the respective districts. But it has analysed 10 patients’ deaths. The panel comprises 12 specialists including pulmonologists, anaesthetists and general physicians. Dr C Nagaraj from Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases and Dr Ravi from BMCRI’s department of medicine are other experts on the panel.
                                Am familiar with Dr. Satish as i had taken a relative to see him over a decade back. As it turns out the case was simple and he wondered why the referral was made : )
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 01 May 20,, 21:52.

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