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  • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    This comes as a big surprise as i thought one of the key symptoms of the disease was fever. As in no fever with breathlessness then not C19
    Symptoms for all 130,440 clinically reported cases in Germany (about 76% of all cases), as of yesterday according to RKI:
    - 50% coughing
    - 42% fever
    - 21% cold
    - 15% loss of taste and smell*
    - 2.8% pneumonia

    * this is somewhat contested. Streek, the guy with the study in Gangelt, claims this symptoms affects two-thirds of patients in his surveys. RKI started allowing a field for that in clinical reports two weeks ago, the percentage is for cases reported since then.

    WHO has some numbers out there which show high percentages of fever (87.9%). Those numbers are based upon 55,924 Chinese cases as of Feb 20th. These Chinese numbers instead show a significantly lower occurence of colds in connection with SARS-CoV2 (4.8%) compared to the German numbers.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by kato View Post
      Symptoms for all 130,440 clinically reported cases in Germany (about 76% of all cases), as of yesterday according to RKI:
      - 50% coughing
      - 42% fever
      - 21% cold
      - 15% loss of taste and smell*
      - 2.8% pneumonia
      What about breathlessness ?

      Originally posted by kato View Post
      * this is somewhat contested. Streek, the guy with the study in Gangelt, claims this symptoms affects two-thirds of patients in his surveys. RKI started allowing a field for that in clinical reports two weeks ago, the percentage is for cases reported since then.
      From here

      According to ENT UK, a professional membership body, “There is already good evidence from South Korea, China and Italy that significant numbers of patients with proven COVID-19 infection have developed anosmia (complete loss of smell) /hyposmia (reduced sense of smell).

      In Germany it is reported that more than 2 in 3 confirmed cases have anosmia.

      In South Korea, where testing has been more widespread, 30% of patients testing positive have had anosmia as their major presenting symptom in otherwise mild cases.”
      Half as many in Korea compared to Germany

      In a communication with Public Health England on COVID-related anosmia, ENT UK also flagged the fact that many people report only anosmia without any of the more usual symptoms like fever etc.

      “Iran has reported a sudden increase in cases of isolated anosmia, and many colleagues from the US, France and Northern Italy have the same experience.

      I have personally seen four patients this week, all under 40, and otherwise asymptomatic except for the recent onset of anosmia – I usually see roughly no more than one a month. I think these patients may be some of the hitherto hidden carriers that have facilitated the rapid spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, these patients do not meet current criteria for testing or self- isolation,” wrote Prof Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, and Prof Nirmal Kumar, president of ENT UK.
      part that gets me about that article is this

      Chills are associated with many other infections, such as malaria, and muscle pain and body ache are typically associated with common flu. For these reasons, health experts have repeatedly noted that it is impossible to symptomatically differentiate between COVID-19 and the common flu.
      Unless a test is performed its difficult to tell whether one has the flu or C19. Any one with flu like symptoms will be told to self isolate. People that think they have C19 might just have a bad case of the flu.

      Originally posted by kato View Post
      WHO has some numbers out there which show high percentages of fever (87.9%). Those numbers are based upon 55,924 Chinese cases as of Feb 20th. These Chinese numbers instead show a significantly lower occurence of colds in connection with SARS-CoV2 (4.8%) compared to the German numbers.
      The WHO numbers are where that perception of most having fever comes from
      Last edited by Double Edge; 01 May 20,, 22:43.

      Comment


      • Almost 50% of the dead are below age 60, up from 25% | IE | May 01 2020

        OF THE 1,075 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths across the country till Thursday, almost half the patients were less than 60 years old.

        This marks a shift since April 18, when less than 25 per cent of the deaths occurred in this age group.

        On the other hand, those aged over 75 years now account for only 9.2 per cent of the deaths, a sharp fall from the 42.2 per cent earlier.
        Curious development
        Last edited by Double Edge; 01 May 20,, 22:47.

        Comment


        • Was looking for a write up on Portugal vs Spain, Spiegel did one a month back.

          How Lisbon Has Managed the Corona Crisis | Spiegel | Apr 09 2020

          Portugal moved early, meaning they locked down in three weeks of their first case. Other countries took twice as long.

          Supermarket chains like Pingo, Doce, Continente and Lidl began only allowing small groups of customers inside at a time. Shoppers were surprisingly disciplined and the darker the news from Madrid, Barcelona and Milan grew, the larger became the distances between people waiting in line.

          In Portugal, 87 percent of those who have died were over 70 years old and two-thirds were over 80, numbers that are similar to statistics elsewhere.

          The vast majority of suspected cases or patients with mild symptoms are kept at home, amounting to 85 percent of those who have tested positive.

          It is a prudent strategy, given that in northern Italy, the virus frequently spread in hospitals, despite all of the precautions.

          "It is fear that has led to people behaving relatively responsibly," says Ana Girbal, an epidemiologist in Lisbon and director general at the Portugal branch of the Italian pharmaceuticals company Italfarmaco.
          Keep the mildly infected at home. India is already doing this, the results are evident.

          In contrast to Spain and Italy, seniors in Portugal are generally vaccinated against tuberculosis. A recent study has found a possible correlation between countries where such a vaccine is mandatory and a lower COVID-19 morbidity rate.
          The BCG thing which India has too.

          Compliance with lock down is good in Portugal with three quarters hotels & restaurants closed.

          I think this has some how percolated to Goa. Just seven positives out of a population of 1.8 million and not seen a new case in over two weeks.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 02 May 20,, 07:45.

          Comment


          • Thoughts on three pandemics.

            I’ve experienced three pandemics in my life, at least that’s the way it seems to me. I don’t count the biggest killers such as malaria or gun violence because they were always there, and didn’t emerge on the mental horizon quickly.

            The first was HIV/AIDS (I was at Berkeley in the early days), the second was SARS (Hong Kong), and the third is COVID-19 (London).

            It seems to me that they have certain similarities.

            First, pandemics emerge as if from nowhere. In the beginning, there is great confusion as to whether it is really all that serious. Then, there rapidly emerges a consensus:
            This Is Serious.

            Second, we don’t understand them. We don’t know how dangerous they are, and we don’t know what to do about them. In the near-term, we treat the symptoms, because that’s what we know how to do and it seems to help. We think isolation will prevent the spread, even though we don’t know how this particular nasty is passed from person to person.

            Third, in the longer-term we reach for the vaccine solution, and in two out of three cases (that we know of), that was the wrong approach.

            Fourth, and perhaps saddest of all, some people will use pandemics for their own narrow purposes. They will lie and deceive, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives, just to push their own agendas. The worst are the science-deniers who get in the way of understanding and practical solutions. Next are the bigots, who seek to pin the blame on ‘those people.’

            What can we do differently this time?
            I don’t have the expertise to know the answers, but it seems that putting all our eggs in the vaccine basket isn’t the smartest strategy. When HIV/AIDS emerged, we learned to test blood and use condoms. We changed our behavior to better protect ourselves, and that new behavior seems to have stuck with us.

            During SARS, people in Hong Kong wore masks (which were not very effective against that particular bug). That made it more difficult to spit on the street, to cough in someone’s face, or to otherwise blatantly spread germs. We also made it easier to stay at home when one is sick, without being considered a slacker. In the first decade after SARS, the bad behavior faded, but then it began to come back.

            Today, we are again wearing masks and covering our mouths when we cough. We also clean commonly touched surfaces frequently, and are learning to keep our distance whenever possible. In London, buses are free, because the drivers need to be protected from coming into close contact with so many people during the course of a shift (we enter and exit by the side- or back-door). We are asked to pay with a contactless credit or debit card, rather than cash. Deliveries are far more common than a couple of months ago.

            But, we still have with us the idiots who insist that Mother Nature wouldn’t try to kill us off after the lovely way we treated Planet Earth.
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              What about breathlessness ?
              Not a tracked symptom in Germany (probably because it's too unspecific).

              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              That should make believers of sceptics of the power of socio-spatial distancing. [...] A Japanese virologist who visited the Diamond Princess at the time said no proper quarantine measures were taken. I suppose he thought 15% of the total getting infected was a disaster. It is but when compared to the CDG not so bad.
              There is a meat packaging plant about 80 km from me where every third employee is now infected following a first report around Apr 7th. It's a rather major plant, packaging about 50% of all meat sold through discounter supermarkets in the state.

              These people - mostly Romanians - live in rather destitute conditions that the company in true capitalist fashion describes as "like at a student dorm". Yeah, well. What they mean by that is that it's dilapidated houses in which they pack the people at 4 per room. And they have the gall to lay blame for the infection spread on "these people having a very social culture". The company of course isn't really cooperative in tracing the infection, only releasing lists of residences (... and mostly just lists of names of employees) after the health agency threatened a 10,000 Euro fine. There's some dealings involved with local authorities with the company allowed to keep operating and currently "in negotiations" about taking over part of the cost of rehousing the hundreds of infected in quarantine stations.

              According to the Romanian consulate for the state the infection is likely interrelated with a nearby settlement of 300 migrant workers - living in repurposed shipping containers with higher density than the above - where one person has so far died. These migrant workers relatively recently came from Suceava, a district in rural northwest Romania which is kinda under quarantine for their caseload right now. The death is somewhat played down stating that while the 57-year-old was positive he died from a heart attack.
              Last edited by kato; 02 May 20,, 13:50.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by kato View Post
                There is a meat packaging plant about 80 km from me where every third employee is now infected following a first report around Apr 7th. It's a rather major plant, packaging about 50% of all meat sold through discounter supermarkets in the state.
                This seems to be happening in other countries as well.

                More than 4,000 US meatpacking workers have COVID-19 | CIDRAP | May 01 2020

                The CDC said the congregate work conditions in plants, close proximity to other workers, and long shifts, allow for respiratory infections to spread quickly among workers. The CDC recommends a number of corrective measures for plant operators, including keeping employees 6 feet apart, engineering more airflow in plants, and reconfiguring production lines so workers do not face each other.

                Originally posted by kato View Post
                These people - mostly Romanians - live in rather destitute conditions that the company in true capitalist fashion describes as "like at a student dorm". Yeah, well. What they mean by that is that it's dilapidated houses in which they pack the people at 4 per room. And they have the gall to lay blame for the infection spread on "these people having a very social culture". The company of course isn't really cooperative in tracing the infection, only releasing lists of residences (... and mostly just lists of names of employees) after the health agency threatened a 10,000 Euro fine. There's some dealings involved with local authorities with the company allowed to keep operating and currently "in negotiations" about taking over part of the cost of rehousing the hundreds of infected in quarantine stations.

                According to the Romanian consulate for the state the infection is likely interrelated with a nearby settlement of 300 migrant workers - living in repurposed shipping containers with higher density than the above - where one person has so far died. These migrant workers relatively recently came from Suceava, a district in rural northwest Romania which is kinda under quarantine for their caseload right now. The death is somewhat played down stating that while the 57-year-old was positive he died from a heart attack.
                Singapore is facing similar issues with its migrant workers as well. It's curious that these meat packing plant stories are cropping up at the same time in different countries.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                  Fourth, and perhaps saddest of all, some people will use pandemics for their own narrow purposes. They will lie and deceive, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives, just to push their own agendas. The worst are the science-deniers who get in the way of understanding and practical solutions.
                  I'd say the guy in the video would come close to making that charge at the Imperial college lot.

                  Introducing... the Swedish model



                  Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

                  - UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
                  - The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
                  - This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
                  - The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
                  - The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
                  - The paper was very much too pessimistic
                  - Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
                  - The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
                  - The results will eventually be similar for all countries
                  - Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
                  - The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
                  - At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
                  He says they kept the elders in isolation but its obvious Sweden didn't do as good as job as Germany. Sweden's death rate per million is four times that of Germany

                  Germany & Belgium are the two outliers in Europe with death rates per capita on either end of the spectrum.

                  He criticises the Brits for pulling back on their original plan. The so called herd immunity plan. Well herd immunity is the by product not the strategy. he slams the paper that came out of Imperial that was not published but was highly influential in getting the UK govt to lock down.

                  So what was the deal BJ had to consider ?

                  500k Brits dead without mitigation
                  250k Brits dead with mitigation aka Swedish model
                  20k dead with full suppression or lock down.

                  The advantage here is so long as the Swedish health care system does not get overwhelmed they are doing good with less of a hit to the economy.

                  Bars, clubs, restaurants all open. Can hold gathering up to the size of 49 in Sweden.

                  They don't expect a second wave because they never locked down as the rest of us did.

                  Neil Ferguson was allowed an interview as well

                  Which epidemiologist do you believe? | Unherd | Apr 27 2020

                  What i find striking is Ferguson does not believe we can isolate the vulnerable well enough. No country according to him has succeeded. Really ? Portugal, Germany & Japan do not even come up in his talk.

                  What is interesting is how both employ the word pessimism against each other.

                  For Ferguson to say 250k dead Brits with a swedish style mitigation is over blown hype

                  For Gisecke to say lock downs achieve nothing, people will get infected any way and the numbers will come out the same in the end in terms of infected & deaths regardless is also pessimistic. To contain the disease like South Korea is not desirable as it will surely come back. Quite a fatalistic view isn't it.

                  If this were true China's numbers would be over a magnitude more than what was reported. And i find that unrealistic.

                  If it were true China would experience another lock down in the coming months.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 04 May 20,, 13:04.

                  Comment


                  • SARS might make a comeback or not, but wine shops opened today.

                    Click image for larger version

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                    3 full, will last 8-10 days. Let's see.
                    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                    • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                      SARS might make a comeback or not, but wine shops opened today.

                      [ATTACH]48587[/ATTACH]

                      3 full, will last 8-10 days. Let's see.
                      Yeah they will open in Blr as well. How's the ciggy price doing ? last i went i got stiffed 50% over MRP >: |

                      I see these colour coded zones across the city and i'm having a hard time telling the difference between them.

                      In a red zone e-commerce allowed only for essential services. That means grocery delivery is allowed. There won't be hard done by. There's curfew in force between 7pm - 7 am. You're not confined to your home as i thought earlier. All shops open.

                      I don't know how easy it will be to impose that tracking app ie make it mandatory in the country.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 03 May 20,, 22:10.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Yeah they will open in Blr as well. How's the ciggy price doing ? last i went i got stiffed 50% over MRP >: |

                        I see these colour coded zones across the city and i'm having a hard time telling the difference between them.

                        In a red zone e-commerce allowed only for essential services. That means grocery delivery is allowed. There won't be hard done by. There's curfew in force between 7pm - 7 am. You're not confined to your home as i thought earlier. All shops open.

                        I don't know how easy it will be to impose that tracking app ie make it mandatory in the country.
                        Ciggi prices are 80% over MRP. Aarogya Setu app should be made mandatory in the sense that people getting out of their house should have it installed in their phones, this way it will work.

                        Booze is allowed in all zones. Even in red zones, booze shops outside the containment area is allowed according to MHA, but state's make their own calls regarding that. Here curfew is from 6PM - 6AM. Shops close at 5 PM. If any Covid-19 cases are detected, everything will go back to normal. Lockdown is the new normal.
                        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                        Comment


                        • From Apr 16, she is being feted for being transparent with her people




                          From Apr 23


                          not the final phase but still at the beginning..

                          have to live with the virus for a long time..

                          not be lulled into a false sense of security on encouraging infection numbers

                          some governors are opening up too fast

                          biggest test since WWII and the founding years of the FDR
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 04 May 20,, 07:02.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            some governors are opening up too fast
                            German states do not have governors - whether the role of head of state exists depends on their state constitutions, usually it's either unified with the chief minister or the relevant powers are invested in the state government collectively.

                            The federal parliament is pretty constricted in what it does these days anyway. 70% (!) of all draft bills to discussed this week are about the pandemic in one way or another, for stuff that the federal side can influence - mostly financial aid packages, collective reporting duties to RKI and such. The rest to be decided upon is military matters, an expansion of social media censorship laws and more money for parliamentary delegates...

                            Here's the full speech in English btw: https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-...merkel-1746838
                            (was additionally also published in Russian, Turkish and Arabic)

                            Here's a newer one from last week in English (mostly regarding agreed upon loosening of restrictions): https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-...luesse-1749900

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by kato View Post
                              German states do not have governors - whether the role of head of state exists depends on their state constitutions, usually it's either unified with the chief minister or the relevant powers are invested in the state government collectively.
                              Very good, India also has chief ministers.

                              Originally posted by kato View Post
                              The federal parliament is pretty constricted in what it does these days anyway. 70% (!) of all draft bills to discussed this week are about the pandemic in one way or another, for stuff that the federal side can influence - mostly financial aid packages, collective reporting duties to RKI and such. The rest to be decided upon is military matters, an expansion of social media censorship laws and more money for parliamentary delegates...

                              Here's the full speech in English btw: https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-...merkel-1746838
                              (was additionally also published in Russian, Turkish and Arabic)

                              Here's a newer one from last week in English (mostly regarding agreed upon loosening of restrictions): https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-...luesse-1749900
                              She is talking to Germany but on this subject it is relevant for the entire world.

                              the Federal Government and the Länder must take steps to ensure that we notice at an early stage if the curve of infections becomes steeper again. We must therefore have a warning system and be prepared to respond if necessary. I’m very grateful that we agree on this.
                              So a surveillance system. I did not see anything in there about containment. How will Germany deal with hotspots ?

                              Today’s discussions were therefore an intermediate step. After all, the 12 to 14 days before we know what effect all of this will have on our rate of infection will not elapse until 6 May. We call to mind the opening of shops, which is why we will meet again as soon as next week. We have therefore taken individual decisions today, but will be adopting a more far-reaching package again next week.
                              Denmark re-opened a few weeks ago , they've been holding so far. Their deaths have doubled over twenty days. Its a very gradual rise.

                              Presently Germany doubles deaths every 15 days. If you can hold that then it will be good.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 04 May 20,, 13:20.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                I did not see anything in there about containment. How will Germany deal with hotspots ?
                                Hotspots would be handled like in the first wave: By whatever state governments and local authorities decide.

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