Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Will SARS make a come back?
Collapse
X
-
These are the official stats as of just now
Some people are saying the real figures are much higher. How much higher ?
Lancet put out an article at the end of Jan where they estimated number of infected would double every 6 days
That means 5 doublings every month.
If we assume patient 0 was infected at the beginning of December and we're in March now.
Total number of infected should be 2^15 = 32 k
This number is below the official number
Now if we take November as the start it is 2^20 = 1 million 50k infected
This assumes no quarantine is in place.
But there is one in Wuhan & wider Hubei and people cannot leave home and have to report regularly to the govt they are at home.
So i don't see any reason to think the number of infected is actually in the millions as some seem to think.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Double Edge View Post[ATTACH]48312[/ATTACH]
Italy - 4,636 cases
Germany - 639 cases
France - 613 cases
Italy reports 822 new infections and 49 newly deceased within the last 24 hours (for overall 200). Overall fatality rate in Italy is 4.25% assumed to be due to high median age of population.
Comment
-
Originally posted by kato View PostNumbers are now significantly higher in Europe than in the chart.
Italy - 4,636 cases
Germany - 639 cases
France - 613 cases
Italy reports 822 new infections and 49 newly deceased within the last 24 hours (for overall 200). Overall fatality rate in Italy is 4.25% assumed to be due to high median age of population.
South Korea has completed 100k tests to date.
China's test rate is 1.5 million per weekLast edited by Double Edge; 07 Mar 20,, 00:07.
Comment
-
Germany tests about 11,000 per week.
However tests are only performed if a person with acute respiratory symptoms has either:
- had contact with a person tested positive for Covid-19 or
- has been in a high-risk area of infection (currently: Hubei, Ghom, Gyeongsangbuk-do and some provinces of north Italy).
Of the 639 cases in Germany 329 occured in a single county, with 1 in 773 people there tested positive - a similar rate of occurence as in Hubei.
Comment
-
Here's a comment I caught in Campbell's channel
Here in Germany politicians act as if they were smarter than our best virologists. Economy is more important than health.
Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Mar 20,, 05:38.
Comment
-
The deal with masks from one of the comments on this video
Time for a reality check: No mask will protect you 100% and most masks will do little to prevent you from inhaling the virus, as it is even smaller than what n95 masks filter for. They may reduce the chance of inhaling the virus by a small amount, but only if worn properly. This is because the virus us usually clustered on saliva or moisture droplets when it is exhaled or coughed out into the air. However, once those droplets dry out, the virus is still there stuck to your mask. HOWEVER, masks will do two very important things.
1. They will reduce the chance of touching your nose or mouth. Because COVID-19 and other diseases (such as influenza) survive on surfaces for a period of time, possibly several days, it will reduce your chance transferring it from surfaces to yourself, and of spreading it by transferring it from yourself to surfaces. But this is ONLY if worn properly, removed properly, and disposed of properly. You can still catch it from touching your eyes though, so washing your hands properly and very often is still necessary. Eye protection can also help remind you not to touch your eyes, but some people wearing glasses tend to push them up or down and fiddle with them, which has the opposite effect.
2. Masks can somewhat reduce the amount of virus and bacteria people spread when coughing/sneezing etc. Just as with inhaling, the virus is small enough to be exhaled through any common type of mask. But again, moisture from your breath will cling to the inside of the mask, trapping a small amount of the virus. Because COVID-19 can be spread for 2 weeks or more before people start showing symptoms, anything to prevent the spread is crucial, even if it is only partly effective.
So should you hoard masks? No!!! Many countries have a serious shortage of them, and you want medical professionals to have every tool they can to prevent spreading it among patients. The more effective medical care givers are at containing this, the less risk everyone has of catching it. This may change once they are more readily available, but until there is a surplus, no stocking up.
Should you have a few and wear them in certain circumstances? In my personal (nonprofessional) opinion... probably. If you have been exposed to a person or location involving travelers or sick people, you should stay away from others and wear them when personal contact is necessary. If you are visiting with someone who is ill, elderly, or has long term health problems, wear one. If you are ill, definitely wear one. However, remember they will only reduce the odds of transmission a small amount. If you don't come in contact with at risk people or their living space, you can't give it to them. Isolating yourself when ill is the only 100% effective way to prevent giving it to others.
Ideally, most people circulating in countries with cases should assume they might have a case but no symptoms, and take the same precautions to protect others as they would if they had influenza. This includes staying home/limiting contact with others, excellent hygiene and hand washing, using tissues to sneeze/cough/wipe and as a barrier between your fingers and public buttons/handles/surfaces, cleaning and disinfecting all surfaces with special attention to places touched often (light switches, door handles/doors, appliances, touch screens, keyboards, wall corners/molding/door frames/railings, toilets, sinks, writing instruments, etc.), and following any and all prevention methods medical professionals recommend. In fact, for every stinkin' aspect of disease care and prevention, please only take professional medical advice! (Remember, politicians are NOT medical professionals, and even some medical experts bow to political pressure when making statements.)
Please note that gloves only protect your skin, and unless you have an injury or open sore, you can't catch COVID-19 through your skin... hand washing is actually very effective. If you touch an infected surface while wearing gloves, then touch your eyes/nose/mouth, it will transfer just as well as if you were not wearing gloves. Gloves are only useful if you NEVER touch yourself while wearing them, and properly dispose of them and wash thoroughly when you take them off. As with masks, gloves can be a good reminder though. Stay safe, take care of yourself, use your best judgement, be extra careful, and ignore what anyone else thinks of your informed choices. Educate yourself and do what you believe is right, no matter what anyone else says. :)
Comment
-
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThe deal with masks from one of the comments on this
Back in 2003, during SARS, the best thing masks did was to inform those who didn't pay any attention to the news that Something Was Wrong.
In Hong Kong, spitting almost stopped altogether for about 10-12 years. It started to make a comeback only around 2012-15.Trust me?
I'm an economist!
Comment
-
-
Italy has expanded the quarantine zone to include 16 million people - 80% of those in the wider Milano area, the fourth-most-populous agglomeration in the European Union. Lockdown on travel to and from the region will be effective for 4 weeks for now.
5,883 cases as of yesterday evening. 2,651 of these are hospitalized -
Comment
-
Originally posted by JRT View PostWith people coughing into their elbow, bumping elbows is not such a good idea. A nod and/or verbal greeting is adequate for anyone outside of the household.
In France shaking hands is very common almost expected as is kissing cheeks.
Comment
Comment