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Thread: Will SARS make a come back?

  1. #16
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Less than 1% fatality rate outside Wuhan.
    Vast majority of serious/fatal cases are among people with already serious illnesses, or compromised immune systems.
    Only the most severe cases admitted to hospital in China.
    Very likely to burn itself out in 2-3 months.
    Seems to be on the decline

    Cases reported on Jan 21 averaged 200 per day, by Feb 4 it reached 4,000 a day and for Feb 8 its down to 2,700 per day

    Mortality rate of SARS was around 9%, Cronovirus is little over 2%

    Is coronavirus ten times WORSE than feared? | Daily Mail | Feb 08 2020

    There is some more time to go before it burns out

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    Thailand seems most affected going by number of cases reported as of end last month

    John Hopkins interactive tracker here

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    The first lesson learned by those of us living in Hong Kong at the time was not to trust any Mainland Chinese official sources. It took three months for the authorities to inform the World Health Organization of the outbreak, by which time the disease had spread far and wide.
    Implication being this time around the Chinese govt did notify the world sooner than when SARS happened.

    Chinese have slashed tariffs so goods can enter China faster.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Feb 20, at 22:25.

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Thus far Indonesia has not reported a single case. This seems wildly unlikely. Given the generally poor condition of Indonesia's health infrastructure and population size there are concerns that the virus may be spreading there without anyone being aware. If it breaks out there things could get very messy.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  3. #18
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Implication being this time around the Chinese govt did notify the world sooner than when SARS happened.

    Chinese have slashed tariffs so goods can enter China faster.

    I wonder what could be different now, compared to 2002/03 ...

    Maybe I'll just check Twitter to see if anyone has any insight ...
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  4. #19
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    I wonder what could be different now, compared to 2002/03 ...
    There is no comparison

    That Chinese doctor sounded the alarm in Dec, China informed the WHO on Jan 20 or was it earlier.

    That is half the time they took to inform the WHO about SARS

    China has implemented reforms since SARS. There was no CDC then (Centres for disease control) , there is now and that's changed the way they've approached this outbreak.

    Clinical trials started within twenty days of the first case being diagnosed. 114 isolation wards in Hubei to 14,000 three weeks later. Tell me which country can replicate that ?

    China is now two steps ahead of every one when its comes to handling this sort of outbreak i think.

    It's early days but i get the feeling this virus isn't going to spread very far given how aggressive the Chinese have been at containment. They have bought the world time to deal with this epidemic.


    Maybe I'll just check Twitter to see if anyone has any insight ...
    Discussion at the Munich Security Conference

    The WHO rep thinks there is too much panic and credits China with a quick & effective response.

    The population attack rate of the virus in Hubei is 4 per 100,000. Outside Hubei it isn't even 1 per 100,000

    What China needs is masks, gloves and protective gear so health workers can attend to more cases.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Feb 20, at 04:39.

  5. #20
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Didn't realise we had such a ban in place

    To help China fight coronavirus, India lifts ban on export of personal protection equipments | Hindu | Feb 09 2020

    But N95 masks are still banned because we think we might need them

    Exports ban ties hands of N95 mask producers | ET | Feb 12 2020

    Indians are using these as a preventive measure against the virus. But the prospects of Venus Safety and Magnum Medicare to cash in on the opportunity has been stumped by India’s decision to ban their shipments.

    Mahesh Kudav, managing director of Venus Safety & Health, India’s top selling firm in personal protective equipment, said, “People who need masks are healthcare workers who are being coughed on by patients and people in close proximity to patients. The N95 masks originally are used by people working in industrial sectors like automobiles, factories, roads. General public does not need to wear these masks.”
    Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Feb 20, at 11:38.

  6. #21
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    When there is demand, price goes up. Box of simple face masks costs HK$ 40 and N95 are HK $1800 !!

    This man is a hero !!



    DIY!





    Not too long ago Carrie Lam wanted to ban face masks in HK : )

    These days in China, if you get caught on the streets without a mask its mandatory 14 days detention !!
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Feb 20, at 15:18.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    114 isolation wards in Hubei to 14,000 three weeks later. Tell me which country can replicate that ?
    For scale comparison, we have an isolation ward for people flown in from Wuhan. That isolation ward is run by a single standardized unit. Of which my state has 120 ready for mobilization at any time (*). As in, capacity equivalent to 15,000 isolation ward spots. On top of the influenza pandemic plan assigning 18,500 hospital beds to treatment of infected patients. For a state with a population less than one-fifth of Hubei.

    A bit interestingly (didn't know that) the Red Cross in my state is in an official partnership with its counterpart spefically in Hubei since 1989.

    (*) there's a reserve pool of volunteers seven times as big.

  8. #23
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Not too long ago Carrie Lam wanted to ban face masks in HK : )

    These days in China, if you get caught on the streets without a mask its mandatory 14 days detention !!
    Fact of the matter is that these masks work better on infected people infecting others with droplets than the other way around. If you do not have the virus then your best protection is to wash your hands often. When I mention often I mean more than a few times. I wash my hands a minimum of a dozen times a day for what I do. I do not know how long the virus can remain viable out in the open but I would guess a couple of hours. That means you could wash your hands and then touch a door knob to open a door, and now you would need to wash your hands again. Assuming it is viable outside then just imagine the amount of things you handle, and were handled by others, in the course of a day. Then you move your hands to most likely rub your eyes...

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    If you do not have the virus then your best protection is to wash your hands often. When I mention often I mean more than a few times. I wash my hands a minimum of a dozen times a day for what I do. I do not know how long the virus can remain viable out in the open but I would guess a couple of hours.
    Official recommendation from the Red Cross here:
    1) Wash hands regularly with water and soap (or desinfectant).
    2) Keep one meter distance from people coughing to avoid breathing in virii.
    3) Do not touch your eyes, nose or mouth.
    4) When coughing, or sneezing do so holding either the elbow or hand in front of the mouth. Clean hands afterwards. Dispose of tissues.
    5) When running a fever, stay at home and call medical assistance by telephone.
    6) Stay informed.
    7) In contaminated zones: Stay at home with mild symptomes like a headache or running nose.
    8) Keep supplies at home for ten days.

  10. #25
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    For scale comparison, we have an isolation ward for people flown in from Wuhan. That isolation ward is run by a single standardized unit. Of which my state has 120 ready for mobilization at any time (*). As in, capacity equivalent to 15,000 isolation ward spots. On top of the influenza pandemic plan assigning 18,500 hospital beds to treatment of infected patients. For a state with a population less than one-fifth of Hubei.

    A bit interestingly (didn't know that) the Red Cross in my state is in an official partnership with its counterpart spefically in Hubei since 1989.

    (*) there's a reserve pool of volunteers seven times as big.
    Cool stuff. If you can allocate the land as quick then its game on.

    Xiaotangshan hospital built in Beijing during the SARS outbreak formed the blueprint for the ones in Wuhan. Experience helps.





    The first hospital has 1000 beds the second one 1600.

    I don't know where the 14,000 number comes from, maybe a few stadiums here & there add up
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Feb 20, at 03:10.

  11. #26
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    We wear masks these days

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  12. #27
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Official recommendation from the Red Cross here:
    1) Wash hands regularly with water and soap (or desinfectant).
    2) Keep one meter distance from people coughing to avoid breathing in virii.
    3) Do not touch your eyes, nose or mouth.
    Good luck with that one. I can tell you from 40 years experience of watching people, especially watching how they use their eyes, that their hands go there without a second thought about stopping. Human nature to do that and not in human nature to hold back so holding back requires a lot of constant thought.

    4) When coughing, or sneezing do so holding either the elbow or hand in front of the mouth. Clean hands afterwards. Dispose of tissues.
    Spitting is not that rare in some Asian countries. Not at all in Japan or Singapore but common in the Philippines, Indonesia and probably China proper. Try stopping that behavior.

    5) When running a fever, stay at home and call medical assistance by telephone.
    6) Stay informed.
    7) In contaminated zones: Stay at home with mild symptomes like a headache or running nose.
    8) Keep supplies at home for ten days.

  13. #28
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    I had a bird. It's name was Enza
    When i opened the window in flew Enza




    Interesting documentary on how the disease spread. Army barracks in Kansas to Europe and then when the soldiers returned back into the US. From Europe it would go all over the world.

    Philly suffered the worst due to mismanagement. San Francisco did better. They enforced face masks at gun point.

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    The main difference is it killed young adults but the children and older people survived.

    COVID goes after the very young & old but those in between can recover.

    More Americans died in the flu epidemic than all deaths in WW1,2, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan & Iraq combined.

    20 million died in India alone.

    Worldwide the death rate is anywhere from 50 to 100 million.

    The number rose with time. It was estimated to be 20 million which further research turned into 25 million by late 20thC

    It's only in the 21st C that the true numbers come out.

    The name 'Spanish Flu' came about because Spain was neutral in WW1 and had no censorship of the media during WW1 so the Spanish media openly reported on the disease in the country. This created the impression this flu came from Spain but that was not the case.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Feb 20, at 14:38.

  14. #29
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    1918

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    1918 Indiana Uni Student Army Training Corps Assembly Hall

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    2020 Wuhan living room exhibition centre

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    2020 Wuhan Hongshan Gymnasium

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    2020 Convention centre some where in Hubei province

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  15. #30
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Which facial hairstyles work with a respirator and which do not. Find out

    Facial hairstyles and respirator masks.pdf | CDC | Feb 25 2020

    Any kind of beard under the chin is out. Only a little tash is allowed

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