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Thread: Will SARS make a come back?

  1. #241
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Chinese copies are litterally $1 a piece. They don't meet NBC requirements but for this specific purpose, they more than suffice. I'm not criticizing the cops. They have a job to do but you think their chief would spring $20 for his men.
    I am hoping China will have supplies of these suits. There are Chinese companies absolutely desperate to meet the demand if only they can get their workers back into the factories. As things ease there more get back to work and supply resumes for the very long line of countries facing shortages of critical equipment.

    Many of these companies could not get approval to sell in China because the quality did not meet the grade but that restriction has been waived for exports. For the purposes its here it ok.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Mar 20, at 19:26.

  2. #242
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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  3. #243
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Kato, you're living in a developed country. What's normal for you is luxury for most of us here.
    Umm, i'm surprised he had a BCG injection because TB isn't prevalent in the west. Since when did Germans have TB ?

    It's more common in developing countries with a history of TB to have a mass BCG innoculation program.

    TB killed Jinnah in 1948, oh how different Pakistan's trajectory could have been had he lived longer.

    BCG is almost a hundred years old, its not a luxury to have even half a century back.

    India eradicated small pox in 1979.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Mar 20, at 21:29.

  4. #244
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Care homes, hospitals and similar medical institutions immediately issued no-visitor rules nation-wide. Only staff is allowed in. Since then it is only allowed to enter a senior citizen home to visit a person on their deathbed (literally), and even that would be subject to precautions. Most professional nursing care providers that care for people at their private homes operate similarly - no visitors at their offices, no one coming back from a job or going out to the next one gets in or out without desinfection.
    A simple rule that costs nothing but every country can implement. The result is striking. How many lives were saved due to a simple policy like this. German doctors do not need to make these horrible decisions of who will or will not get to be on the ventilator.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    However residents can still venture out of their care homes - they're not under lockdown - and that's something that operators running such homes do criticize in public. Some get a bit creative in how to keep the people in their rooms, a local large care home for example now has socalled "garden concerts" where they play classic music on loudspeakers from the garden while people can roll out on balconies "to enjoy spring" ... from their safe isolation.

    There are now increasingly outbreaks that are hitting the senior citizen homes though. Usually with over half of residents and staff infected, and 10% fatalities within the first few days.
    So we see the limits of not having a shelter in place policy. The odds of infection rise for the vulnerable.

    What is the problem here ? three generations ago people were asked to sacrifice for their country, this time they are only being told to stay indoors and watch TV.


    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Privately i would say that most people here are self-isolating to a large extent, and in particular older people. As an example my aunt celebrated her 82nd birthday two weeks ago; out of 20 guests only 9 attended (and only 3 of them over 60), the rest was staying home isolating to protect either themselves or vulnerable people in their household.
    This is remarkable. Two weeks ago Germany had around 7,000+ infected yet the party still went ahead.

    I was nervous about letting the maid in today when she showed up as I wanted to limit the exposure of outsiders to the elders. She showed up wearing a scarf which was a good sign. The compliance with wearing masks from what i saw in the neighbourhood last week was quite good considering about 30% were wearing them the weeks prior.

    I gave her a cloth mask to wear and she went on with her job. She can reuse it after washing. I've decided to limit her visits to once a week instead of every three days. I am gambling here but maybe its a low one. We need her to come. Didn't know how to bring her over as all public transport as well as private has been stopped. So she walked.

    Her husband and son were stuck at home without work since the lockdown began Mar 23 so she's desperate to earn something. She had no trouble getting her food so there is no shortage.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Mar 20, at 21:53.

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Umm, i'm surprised he had a BCG injection because TB isn't prevalent in the west. Since when did Germans have TB ?
    In the 1940s and 1950s Tb was relatively widespread in Germany, with 100,000-150,000 cases per year (a similar prevalence to India today). It primarily spread through the 12 million refugees coming from Eastern Europe after the war that were distributed all over Germany.

    Mass innoculation started around 1950 and within the next 30 years dropped not just cases in general, but factually eradicated Tb as a factor in infant mortality (reduction by 97% !). Around the time i was born it was still 30,000 cases per year, nowadays 5,000. The mass innoculation programme was lifted when it dropped below 10,000 cases per year. The overwhelming majority of Tb cases in Germany nowadays are immigrants who aren't innoculated. Among Germans it only occurs in people born before the innoculation programme.

    Between ca 1950 and the mid 80s in most states in parallel to the innoculation programme there was mandatory mass screening of the population - mobile x-ray stations in busses coming into towns and villages and the entire population being required to be tested for tuberculosis. Coverage was 85-90% of the population. In the military we all got this screening as well up until 2000.

  6. #246
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I have 2 scars on my upper left arm. Mom doesn't remember what they're for. Polio was taken care of through drops. So, what are those for? Maybe they made me invincible.
    I have those two as well, they are given to babies.

    BCG will be at the top of the arm. It seems you did not get one as it tends to inflame a bit after and there is pus which heals few weeks later. It isn't painful but it its something you don't forget.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I said muslims as I didn't know BCG (as you're saying now) was a universal policy. I thought it had to be taken orally and the costs were quite high, and so probably only the wealthy would opt for it. But TB cases are still very high in India, why?
    Polio is taken by drops.

    Will answer your question later

  7. #247
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Economic fallout of COVID-19 in Pakistan: People under poverty line may double to 125 million

    Problem is, the dire the economic situation is in Pakistan, the fertile the ground becomes for the PA/ISI to hire unemployed youths for the numerous terror organizations they've created.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  8. #248
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Discrimination amid pandemic, Pakistan refuses to give food to Hindus as coronavirus rages

    A decade from now, the world community will be forced to decide if they want Pakistan to exist as a dysfunctional terrorist state. India will decide much before that.

    Scoundrels. A blot in the name of humanity.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  9. #249
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I have those two as well, they are given to babies.

    BCG will be at the top of the arm. It seems you did not get one as it tends to inflame a bit after and there is pus which heals few weeks later. It isn't painful but it its something you don't forget.

    Polio is taken by drops.

    Will answer your question later
    As I said I have 2. One is at the top of my left upper arm, which is a big scar. Another is at the lower shoulder of my left arm, which is the small one.

    I also had vaccinations for Hepatitis, 23 years back when I was studying B.Tech, as I suffered from the disease badly. I don't think I had a flu vaccination, pretty sure about it actually. Need to make a list of vaccinations available, then take them one by one. That will be the smartest thing to do. Thanks Xi.
    Last edited by Oracle; 01 Apr 20, at 10:55.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  10. #250
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  11. #251
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    As I said I have 2. One is at the top of my left upper arm, which is a big scar. Another is at the lower shoulder of my left arm, which is the small one.
    I'm saying you should have 3 scars rather than 2 if you had BCG.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
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    Are they still allowing Friday prayers ? Is the religious establishment too big a fight to handle ?

    Can't think of any reason why their numbers are going up otherwise. Its not like they are testing more or faster than we are.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Apr 20, at 19:53.

  12. #252
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    What I think is, and this is purely a hunch, the peak will start after 7th April (7th - 14th). So, in no way will the lockdown end on 15th of April. What might be a blessing is that, states which have lesser number of Covid-19 infections, say for example Assam (for now), might end the lockdown, but continue enforcing sealing off the state's borders with other states, so that no new infections cross the border and come into Assam.
    Somebody else said the same thing to me as well today. They feel the thing will burn itself out ie peak.

    We don't have the data to support such a statement so why are you two thinking this.

    It might be political. To continue the lock down for longer entails costs. Political as well as economic.

    Bottom line being will the lock down save more lives to justify the economic costs of extending this lock down.

    The GroupThink bankruptcy of the Mainstream Media – Do your own Coronavirus friends data test! | Tom Winifrith | Apr 01 2020

    So this is the UK govt

    Yesterday the Government said there was evidence that its lockdown measures were leading to a flattening of the curve, that is to say, that the number of new cases was growing at a slowing rate. It did this on the basis of three days data which is, in itself, suspect but the real problem is that the data itself is meaningless. Yet the entire MSM lapped it up as gospel.
    Wait for our health ministry to make a similar claim around the time frame you mentioned.

    Firstly, since there is no blind test going on you cannot say whether it is lockdown slowing any growth – if indeed it is slowing – or that it is just slowing as all viral epidemics eventually do. Peter Hitchens asks you to imagine you telling your Doctor you have a cough. He amputates your left leg. The cough goes away after a few days. Can the doctor claim the amputation cured your cough for sure?

    But there is a more important point which is that, as the UK is doing very few tests ( so far just 143,000 or 0.22% of the population) and is indeed only testing those already in or working in hospitals, its data set is small and massively unrepresentative and thus shows you nothing about what is happening in the population at large. And as such it can make no claims at all about a flattening curve in the wider population.
    Close to 150k tested in the UK so far and he is saying that is completely unrepresentative and tells nothing about the population at large.

    So the govt can say they have flattened the curve and claim success as a result of the lock down. This would then mean they have to relax the lock down. Why would they do that ?

    Because the lives saved won't be that much more compared to the financial cost, the economic cost of continuing the lock down.

    How else do you think the Chinese could lift the Wuhan lock down after two months : )

    Top Virus expert John Oxford says Coronavirus a “media epidemic” will be less UK deaths than normal flu - sub 8,000 | | Tom Winifrith | Mar 31 2020

    This means claims of 25k funeral urns in Wuhan has nothing to do with the deaths caused by this virus. The CCP death figures mentioned aren't too far off either if not completely accurate.

    an Australian Mathematical model paper is published which clearly predicts that compliance with “social distancing” must be 80 or 90% otherwise it will not work. My friend Peter Doherty in Australia has reminded everyone that the positive effects of this intervention similar to which we are trying to do here) will take 2 weeks to filter through to fewer deaths etc, so do not expect instant results! Incidentally Peter has ‘form’ because of his Nobel Prize! There must be 80-90% compliance.
    That is if the leaks exceed 20% it is pointless to continue the lock down. Look around you, are the streets bare or are there a few milling about. If you're out there to see this then what really is the compliance rate ?

    Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good.

    Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!
    Just like the flu then, as Trump said ? : )

    A view from the hVivo / Open Orphan #ORPH Laboratory – Professor John Oxford | Mar 31 2020
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Apr 20, at 20:48.

  13. #253
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Wonder why current smokers are less affected than non-smokers or former smokers

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  14. #254
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The interesting case of Sweden

    No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy | CNBC | Mar 30 2020

    Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said that isolating Stockholm could happen if the outbreak worsens, but that such measures are not currently being discussed. He had previously insisted that successfully combating the spread of the virus was largely dependent on individual behavior.
    Sweden has not completely diverged from the rest of Europe. In a similar way to its neighbors, Sweden’s government has advocated working from home if at all possible, avoiding non-essential travel and the elderly are advised to avoid social contact. Of course, advice to wash hands regularly has also been promoted.

    Restaurants, bars, cafés and nightclubs have been told to offer seated table service only. And as of Sunday, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned (the country had initially suspended gatherings of more than 500 people). It has also closed universities and colleges, but schools with students under 16 years old remain open.

    As such, compared to elsewhere in Europe, life in Sweden feels eerily normal, Stockholm residents say.

  15. #255
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Testimonial from Bangalore's 1st recovered patient : )



    It IS managable.

    A podcast i listened to earlier by some one in the UK said his daughter described like a five day long hangover.

    She was not tested but the symptoms were very similar.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Apr 20, at 01:26.

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