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Thread: German elections 2005

  1. #1
    Patron SloMax's Avatar
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    German elections 2005

    German leaders in crunch TV duel

    German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his conservative rival Angela Merkel have clashed over the economy in a TV debate ahead of the 18 September poll.

    A snap survey indicates Mr Schroeder was judged the winner, but analysts say he failed to deliver a knock-out blow.

    Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), well ahead in the polls, have centred their election campaign on Germany's sluggish growth and high unemployment.

    Mr Schroeder hit back, saying Germany had become the world's top exporter.

    He also highlighted his opposition to the US-led war in Iraq.

    Tussle over reforms


    During the only televised head-to-head debate in the run-up to the election, the chancellor said his foreign policy had "positioned Germany abroad as a middle-sized power for peace".

    He also called on German voters to trust his economic policies, which he said were "aimed at readjusting the social security systems neglected in the 90s".

    But Mrs Merkel, who appeared more combative than expected, argued that Mr Schroeder's controversial reforms had been hampered by his own party, the Social Democrats (SPD).

    "Germany can only be a strong, reliable party in the world if we are also economically strong, and that is where we are lacking," she said.

    "And, unlike the chancellor, I can be sure with my party colleagues that we will support this course of modernisation together."

    Mrs Merkel said the country needed bold steps to revive the country's struggling economy, after seven years of failed leadership.

    "You can't be satisfied with the situation in our country," she said. "We have five million unemployed people. It's not like the sun rises and more and more jobs appear.

    "No, no, Mr Schroeder. And if you don't have an answer to this question - then nothing will happen. But nothing will happen with this government anyway because you won't get another chance."

    'Guinea pigs'

    Analysts said that while the debate was unlikely to affect the outcome of the election, it might determine whether the coalition Mrs Merkel is hoping to form with the Free Democrats will win enough votes to have a governing majority.

    The debate was watched by close to half the nation's voters.

    Mr Schroeder dismissed Mrs Merkel's arguments, saying she wanted to use Germans as guinea pigs in an economic experiment.

    "What you're saying can't work and what you're saying about growth ignores the fact that we have made Germany the world's leading exporter," he said. "This is thanks to our reforms, our corporate tax policies.

    "When you and Helmut Kohl were governing Germany, you were not successful."

    Germany's top-selling newspaper, Bild, hedged its bets after the debate, with a headline that asked: "Man Against Woman - Who Was Better?"

    link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4214222.stm

    If Mrs. Merkel wins these elections (it looks quite certain), will it change something in German foreign policy? Will Mrs. Merkel reforms help German economy to recover, because Germany’s economic recovery is vital for whole European economy?

  2. #2
    Staff Emeritus Confed999's Avatar
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    No matter who wins, I pray they do better than now...
    No man is free until all men are free - John Hossack
    I agree completely with this Administration’s goal of a regime change in Iraq-John Kerry
    even if that enforcement is mostly at the hands of the United States, a right we retain even if the Security Council fails to act-John Kerry
    He may even miscalculate and slide these weapons off to terrorist groups to invite them to be a surrogate to use them against the United States. It’s the miscalculation that poses the greatest threat-John Kerry

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    Patron SloMax's Avatar
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    On the economic front there will be changes and hopefully for the better, but on foreign policy I don't think anything will change.

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    Ubi dubium ibi libertas Senior Contributor
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    "will it change something in German foreign policy?"

    Well I doubt they'll be sending troops to Iraq, but it will likely be less overtly anti-American

    "Will Mrs. Merkel reforms help German economy to recover, because Germany’s economic recovery is vital for whole European economy?"

    Maybe, but as long as they cling to the welfare state, it won't last long.

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    Banned Senior Contributor dalem's Avatar
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    Man, I'd love to work up a nice and nasty sarcastic post about me sticking my nose into the politics of a country not my own, but in the end I just don't care that much.

    -dale

  6. #6
    Ubi dubium ibi libertas Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalem
    Man, I'd love to work up a nice and nasty sarcastic post about me sticking my nose into the politics of a country not my own, but in the end I just don't care that much.

    -dale
    All I really care about is that Schroeder suffers a humiliating defeat. I really could care less who wins.
    "Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have."
    "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"

    NEVER FORGET

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    Banned Defense Professional Bluesman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leader
    All I really care about is that Schroeder suffers a humiliating defeat. I really could care less who wins.
    Actually, if Schroeder wins (unlikely, at this point), it dooms Germany to also-ran status for a very long time.

    After their behavior before OIF, it would serve 'em right.

    But, like dalem, I don't think I've been this ambivalent about a major Eurpean country's elections in a long, long time. They simply don't matter all that much to me or my country any more.

  8. #8
    Ubi dubium ibi libertas Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluesman
    Actually, if Schroeder wins (unlikely, at this point), it dooms Germany to also-ran status for a very long time.

    After their behavior before OIF, it would serve 'em right.

    But, like dalem, I don't think I've been this ambivalent about a major Eurpean country's elections in a long, long time. They simply don't matter all that much to me or my country any more.
    I agree. I believe Europe is becoming less and less relevant.
    "Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have."
    "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"

    NEVER FORGET

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leader
    All I really care about is that Schroeder suffers a humiliating defeat. I really could care less who wins.
    Well, in this case prepare to get disappointed.

    No matter who will win, it won't be humilating to Schroeder. All recent surveys show that it will be a very, very close victory. It's basically still totally open who will win (it may even become necessary for the two big parties of Merkel and Schroeder to from caolition if no side get's a stable majority).

    The biggest inofficial TV survey that is running in Germany even as I write this post actually had the surprising result that Schroeder stay chancellor (although it's questionable how convincing this result it, as every one could vote in this survey, even if he isn't actually able to vote in the real election tomorrow).


    Long story short: Like said above, even if Schroeder loses tomorrow, it won't be humiliating


    Edit: The TV survey has just finished. Schroeder's party won even in states that they usually never win, and beat Merkel's party with 38% to 31.6%. Together with their traditional coalition partners that would make 47.1% for Schroeder and 45.5% for Merkel. Close, but it may be enough for Schroeder.

    Will this result send a shock to all voters and affect tomorrows election? Certainly, the only question is how.
    Last edited by Watcher; 17 Sep 05, at 21:38.

  10. #10
    Contributor JG73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Watcher
    Edit: The TV survey has just finished. Schroeder's party won even in states that they usually never win, and beat Merkel's party with 38% to 31.6%. Together with their traditional coalition partners that would make 47.1% for Schroeder and 45.5% for Merkel. Close, but it may be enough for Schroeder.

    Will this result send a shock to all voters and affect tomorrows election? Certainly, the only question is how.
    ?????Where have you seen that????
    The newest inquiers are:

    SPD: 33%
    CDU: 42%
    Grüne: 6,5%
    FDP: 7,5%
    Linksbündnis: 7,5%

    Normally CDU forms a coalation with FDP. Together they seem to get 49,5%. That would be the total majority.

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    Pro7, just ended a hour ago.

    Victory for SPD.

    The surveys with the CDU/FDP getting a solid majority are long outdated, the most recent ones showed almost a draw. CDU/FDP has lost much of the edge they had at the start of election campaign.

    If anything has been proved recently, that many, many people are still undecided. And with the last results, these people will decide who wins

    Like I said above: It's questionable how significant the results from the Pro7 survey are (it's the largest and most recent, but it also took into account the votes of people entitled to vote tomorrow), but they might send a signal that will get many people to go voting that wouldn't have voted without seeing this

    Well, in less than a day we will know (or not, depending how close it will end, the winner might not be certain until 2nd October)
    Last edited by Watcher; 17 Sep 05, at 22:45.

  12. #12
    Contributor JG73's Avatar
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    What you saw was TV Total. Their survey was absolute crap. TV Total is the biggest comedy show in Germany. I don't know any people of a higher niveau who watch it.
    The people who voted there where mostly children who are not aloud to vote because they are not 18 years old. The others who voted there where degenerated people who don't care of politics otherwise or are frustrated. I ask myself who pays 1€ per call to be part of such a ####.
    The survey I posted is a real represantiv survey of Forsa.
    Here's the link
    http://www.n-tv.de/531158

  13. #13
    Ubi dubium ibi libertas Senior Contributor
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    "The biggest inofficial TV survey "

    So this is a voluntary response survey. I.E. anyone can vote in it. That's useless. And by "useless" I mean completely devoid of any statistical value at all.
    "Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have."
    "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"

    NEVER FORGET

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    Well, we will see.

    The latest surveys showed only a small majority for CDU/FDP, while at the same time many people prefered Schroeder instead of Merkel.

    It's useless to argue anymore, as we all will know the results in a few hours (or at least most of the results).


    Anyway, whether Schroeder loses or wins, it won't be a humilating defeat.


    About TV Total: The question remains: How many of the participants are 18+ and how many of them will go and vote tomorrow just because of this show? Despite not being a serious show, it was seen by millions and things like this can affect a lot of people.

    They may be only "degenerated people who don't care of politics otherwise or are frustrated", but if 3 million of them go and give their vote just because of that show, that can make a lot of difference.

    @JG73
    Don't understimate the influence this clown Stefan Raab can have. While I agree that most of the people voting at his show don't understand the difference between the importance of voting for the singer that should go to the european song contest and voting for the Bundestagswahl, this doesn't mean that a lot of them won't go voting tomorrow just because they saw it at TV and think it's k3wl
    Last edited by Watcher; 18 Sep 05, at 00:48.

  15. #15
    Ubi dubium ibi libertas Senior Contributor
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    "Well, we will see."

    No we won't "see" if the voluntary response survey has any value. It doesn't. That's a FACT. As in proven mathematically. As in 2+2=4. Voluntary response survey = irrelevant.

    "Anyway, whether Schroeder loses or wins, it won't be a humilating defeat."

    I never said it was. I said I hoped it would be because the guys an ass.
    "Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have."
    "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"

    NEVER FORGET

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