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Thread: Covid and TRUMP Stress test

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    Covid and TRUMP Stress test

    I was going to title this the covid stress test and pose the premise that the pandemic has acted and continues to act as a giant stress test of american society, politically and economically and if the US members of WAB have noticed clear cracks and weaknesses that have emerged in your system?

    The probelm I forsee is the conflation of these weakness with the incompetence of the Trump administration. It muddies the waters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tantalus View Post
    I was going to title this the covid stress test and pose the premise that the pandemic has acted and continues to act as a giant stress test of american society, politically and economically and if the US members of WAB have noticed clear cracks and weaknesses that have emerged in your system?

    The probelm I forsee is the conflation of these weakness with the incompetence of the Trump administration. It muddies the waters.
    Well, it does show the weakness of having 50+ different governments trying 50+ different ways of dealing with a pandemic...all while the central federal government is literally working against them.

    I mean, yeah, this a feature (not a bug) of the Trump Administration, but it could clearly be any incompetent and/or corrupt Administration.

    So, there's a weakness of American society: If the Executive Branch abdicates its leadership role, the entire country will suffer.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Well, it does show the weakness of having 50+ different governments trying 50+ different ways of dealing with a pandemic...all while the central federal government is literally working against them.

    I mean, yeah, this a feature (not a bug) of the Trump Administration, but it could clearly be any incompetent and/or corrupt Administration.

    So, there's a weakness of American society: If the Executive Branch abdicates its leadership role, the entire country will suffer.
    Yes its particularly unfortunate for the states in the norteast that have made a strong effort to bring the virus under control only to risk constant reinfection from the other states.

    I think the Trump adminstration draws attention away from other issues within america that would otherwise have grabbed the attention but I understand that the USA's vast size, diversity and strong love for liberty poses challenges in the context of the unique conditons of a pandemic.

    Healtcares link to employment seems tenous in this context and the fact that covid will actually cause many long lasting health effects in a system that is so expensive and inefficient seems unnecessarily cruel.

    In europe we paid people to keep their job and gave generous unemployment benefits. This made it an easy decision for people to stay at home and not spread the virus. In the usa it seems you created conditions that made it intolerable to do so.

    The fact that america has so many people there illegally, working in the gig economy, and below the poverty line made it virtually impossible to ask the populace to do nothing for 2 months.

    It's sad to think of the amount of suffering, anxiety and stress that can go on quietly in the background in the world's wealthiest's society.

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    I'm actually more optimistic than I was heading into this. I figured we'd all be fucked by mid-April because no one would acknowledge the problem until it was WAY too late. However, while we were slow, we started adjusting around mid-March.

    I am obviously concerned about our scientific literacy, especially since health care experts have been quite loud about their opinions...and no one seems to listen. There's the obvious "anti-mask" people, but the Blue Tribe folk in my Facebook feed seem just as bad.

    There's a laundry list of issues, but overall, yeah, still more optimistic.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 12 Jul 20, at 13:19.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post

    I am obviously concerned about our scientific literacy, especially since health care experts have been quite loud about their opinions...and no one seems to listen. There's the obvious "anti-mask" people, but the Blue Tribe folk in my Facebook feed seem just as bad.
    I have heard complaints that some public health officials were weak in explaining that the BLM protests would lead to spread while condenming the anti-lockdowns protests weeks before. I dont't know how widespread this issue was. I have seen surveys which suggest that trust is at historical lows in many american instutuions. I think the military was still faring ok. This is a bad sign. This distrust is not unwarranted as america seems to beoming more polarised politically and social media eats away at society's discourse.

    Also the economic system is failing to deliver on its premise of equal opportunity and income inquality is very high. Wall street insiders like Ray Dalio,Scott Minerd and Jeffrey Gundlach have acknowledged this trend. This is eroding trust in the story that america tells itself which feeds down into the scientific institutions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tantalus View Post
    I understand that the USA's vast size, diversity and strong love for liberty poses challenges in the context of the unique conditons of a pandemic.
    That about sums it up, yeah.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

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    I see this crisis as a test of whether or not you have a working administration for every and any state.

    Can the govt of the day seize itself of the problem, fashion a coherent response and work out a management plan with a singular purpose.

    Move down organisational units from there. Country, state, county, city.

    Mixed record across the world and even within countries.

    Some done well some not so well.

    The question is whether the weaker ones learn from it and get better.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Jul 20, at 20:24.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    I am obviously concerned about our scientific literacy, especially since health care experts have been quite loud about their opinions...and no one seems to listen. There's the obvious "anti-mask" people, but the Blue Tribe folk in my Facebook feed seem just as bad.
    Nothing is wrong with your scientific literacy but it needs to come across coherently

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    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tantalus View Post
    I have heard complaints that some public health officials were weak in explaining that the BLM protests would lead to spread while condenming the anti-lockdowns protests weeks before. I dont't know how widespread this issue was. I have seen surveys which suggest that trust is at historical lows in many american instutuions. I think the military was still faring ok. This is a bad sign. This distrust is not unwarranted as america seems to beoming more polarised politically and social media eats away at society's discourse.

    Also the economic system is failing to deliver on its premise of equal opportunity and income inquality is very high. Wall street insiders like Ray Dalio,Scott Minerd and Jeffrey Gundlach have acknowledged this trend. This is eroding trust in the story that america tells itself which feeds down into the scientific institutions.
    I think the problem isn't necessarily scientific institutions or social media specifically, it's the people using social media. It's not like I totally discount the opinion of experts, and a lot of them are out there offering some good information, coupled with a healthy dose of humility about the stuff that we do not know. However, the "I fucking love science" people on my FB feed aren't really going after primary sources, they are just looking at whatever trends through their social feed and repeat their messages on their own feeds. There's nothing forcing them to do that.

    Pro-tip: you cannot believe Science. You can believe scientists. But scientists, and the institutions that employ them, are humans and can have typical human failings. The reason we need a scientific method is because humans naturally suck at deriving objective truth. That doesn't mean you need to jump off a building because you think gravity isn't real, but if a bunch of ideologues are telling you it's okay to have certain protests as long as they contain the correct content, you can reasonably conclude that their ideology is driving that guidance.

    I am not motivated by income inequality concerns.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    FYI it appears the BLM protests seem to NOT have had an impact on COVID 19 spread...at least in the US.


    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...covid-19-cases

    https://nationalpost.com/news/why-di...study-suggests

    https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-covid19-surge
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    Yeah, it seems that the protests were much less infectious than what I would previously assume. My personal take is that I am waiting for more information before reaching a definitive conclusion. And that if you cannot find a single infection tied to a protest with thousands, tens of thousands of people, there might be something wrong with the diagnostic tool.

    My second take is that if you roll the dice and it comes up 7, that does not mean it was a good decision to roll the dice, particularly when you are gambling with lives and the economy. It's not a responsible decision.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Yeah, it seems that the protests were much less infectious than what I would previously assume. My personal take is that I am waiting for more information before reaching a definitive conclusion. And that if you cannot find a single infection tied to a protest with thousands, tens of thousands of people, there might be something wrong with the diagnostic tool.

    My second take is that if you roll the dice and it comes up 7, that does not mean it was a good decision to roll the dice, particularly when you are gambling with lives and the economy. It's not a responsible decision.
    Well when you are dealing with 4 centuries of oppression maybe a little bit of GFY on the part of a community to finally get some justice is understood.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Well when you are dealing with 4 centuries of oppression maybe a little bit of GFY on the part of a community to finally get some justice is understood.
    If those dice turned up snake eyes instead, most states would be Florida right now.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    FYI it appears the BLM protests seem to NOT have had an impact on COVID 19 spread...at least in the US.


    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...covid-19-cases

    https://nationalpost.com/news/why-di...study-suggests

    https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-covid19-surge
    Surprising find, there's a 60 pg. paper that explains it but from the articles what i got is, every one is outdoors, moving and not sharing anything like they would if they were say at a concert or a ball game.

    This could mean open air markets are safe too : )

    The biggest factor is the protests were outdoors.

    There’s also the fact that people were largely moving and exposed to the sun and wind.

    “In general, being outdoors does help, due to fresh circulation of air and the antiviral effects of the UV in sunlight, as well as the virus’s fragile nature with desiccation,” Rohde said. “This doesn’t mean the virus can’t be transmitted outdoors, but it’s certainly better than being in enclosed, indoor spaces with lots of people and low air turnover.”

    But there are nuances as to why these protests might have been safe while attending an outdoor event like, say, a baseball game or concert might not be.

    Memorial Day crowds at some beaches and parks sparked criticism — and led to cities such as Los Angeles and Miami closing beaches for the Fourth of July weekend.

    But it’s not necessarily being at the beach with other people that is the problem, Shaman said.

    It’s the facilities and interactions that are part of many people’s trips to the beach.

    “Going back to beaches and Memorial Day, my opinion is people out at the beach is not a big deal,” he said. “But ice cream shops, walking on a boardwalk without masks, going into the restaurants [becomes a problem]. So, in other words, it’s really the indoor dynamic that is problematic.”

    He called out bars especially, where it’s usually necessary to be in close proximity to others and to shout — and spread droplets — over music and chatter.

    The same would apply to a ball game or concert. Even though you’d be mostly outside, you’d be sharing bathrooms, shops, and walkways with others.

    And even when outside, you’d be mostly stationary and in a stadium that’s blocking much of the wind and sun
    , Shaman said — conditions that weren’t a part of the protests.
    Who thinks of these nuances between protesting & a ball game without a pandemic in the backdrop : )

    Spanish president's wife decided to go ahead with the biggest ever rally for women's day on March 18 and cases spiked big time after that rally in Spain. Likely weren't wearing masks to the extent these protesters were two months later.

    This is where the thinking that those protests should have had some effect comes from.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 14 Jul 20, at 04:52.

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    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    There's actually a lot of discussion about those nuances on Twitter...again, if you're following the correct people, hahahaha
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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