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Thread: COVID 19: Beyond the US and China

  1. #46
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    because it is the most optimistic one. Trump really, really wants this to be over prior to November.

    but wishing can't make it so.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #47
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Trump mentioned at a recent briefing that Cuomo wanted 40,000 ventilators

    Trump told him he could only have 4,000

    Turns out NYC still hasn't gone through that 4,000 : D

    So was that tell you about Cuomo's initial demand

  3. #48
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Trump mentioned at a recent briefing that Cuomo wanted 40,000 ventilators

    Trump told him he could only have 4,000

    Turns out NYC still hasn't gone through that 4,000 : D

    So was that tell you about Cuomo's initial demand
    Hindsight is 20/20.

    In regards to the 40,000 ventilators, better to have and not need, than to need and not have.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Trump mentioned at a recent briefing that Cuomo wanted 40,000 ventilators

    Trump told him he could only have 4,000

    Turns out NYC still hasn't gone through that 4,000 : D

    So was that tell you about Cuomo's initial demand
    It tells me that Cuomo was asking for ventilators to cover 0.48% of potential New York City COVID-19 patients.

    Got that? Less than one half of one percent of the population.

    Donald Trump can't plan 5 minutes into the future.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  5. #50
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Donald Trump can't plan 5 minutes into the future.
    This ^. He doesn't know much of anything. He was born with a silver spoon. Always had maids on his beck and call. He got away with bullying during his younger days, no one reminded him, and bullying became a personal trait.

    If not for the men and women of your administration, he'd be so clueless. How can someone be so out of touch with the world he was born into and the one he lives in. Injecting disinfectant, lol. Oh, and he's winning the next 4 years.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  6. #51
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    This ^. He doesn't know much of anything. He was born with a silver spoon. Always had maids on his beck and call. He got away with bullying during his younger days, no one reminded him, and bullying became a personal trait.

    If not for the men and women of your administration, he'd be so clueless. How can someone be so out of touch with the world he was born into and the one he lives in. Injecting disinfectant, lol. Oh, and he's winning the next 4 years.
    We'll see. He is worried. The Republican Party guys are worried. Many a Presidential election hinges on change. Change from LBJ to Nixon even though Nixon lied about Vietnam. Change from dour Carter to sunny Reagan. Change from Clinton to Bush barely. Change from Bush to Obama. Some of those were subtle changes from one to the other. There is nothing subtle about this election. Trump being the most dysfunctional, disorganized, self-interested man to have ever occupied the office presents the biggest most obvious change since Hoover to FDR.

    Edit: Pollsters doing further research on the undecided who threw the election to Trump have found this. Both Trump and HRC were disliked quite a bit by the undecided which is why they were undecided. The October 28th announcement by Comey that he was going to take a further look into the HRC emails was found to have made many of the undecideds dislike HRC more than Trump. Ergo they voted Trump on Nov.2nd. The lesser of two evils so to speak. Now Trump is going to look pretty evil to that undecided group which is there every election. So who do the undecideds dislike the most this year? Figure that out and there is your 3% to throw the election one way or the other in battleground states. So is it the chaotic Trump or the seemingly calm Biden?

    Trump implies Biden has the foot in the mouth disease. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black as the foot in the mouth disease is plain as day every day now even as Trump tries to blame everyone out there including Snow White. His base doesn't matter here at all. What matters is what the undecideds see and believe.
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 28 Apr 20, at 19:14.

  7. #52
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    We'll see. He is worried. The Republican Party guys are worried. Many a Presidential election hinges on change. Change from LBJ to Nixon even though Nixon lied about Vietnam. Change from dour Carter to sunny Reagan. Change from Clinton to Bush barely. Change from Bush to Obama. Some of those were subtle changes from one to the other. There is nothing subtle about this election. Trump being the most dysfunctional, disorganized, self-interested man to have ever occupied the office presents the biggest most obvious change since Hoover to FDR.

    Edit: Pollsters doing further research on the undecided who threw the election to Trump have found this. Both Trump and HRC were disliked quite a bit by the undecided which is why they were undecided. The October 28th announcement by Comey that he was going to take a further look into the HRC emails was found to have made many of the undecideds dislike HRC more than Trump. Ergo they voted Trump on Nov.2nd. The lesser of two evils so to speak. Now Trump is going to look pretty evil to that undecided group which is there every election. So who do the undecideds dislike the most this year? Figure that out and there is your 3% to throw the election one way or the other in battleground states. So is it the chaotic Trump or the seemingly calm Biden?

    Trump implies Biden has the foot in the mouth disease. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black as the foot in the mouth disease is plain as day every day now even as Trump tries to blame everyone out there including Snow White. His base doesn't matter here at all. What matters is what the undecideds see and believe.
    I don't follow US internal politics as much as you guys do. I comment based on what I read on US media. So the percentage of voters in the undecided lot is 3%. It's too small to be hinged upon. Once (2016) it made a difference, but it won't be the same this time. To be frank, I for a second didn't think President Trump would win in 2016. There is a pattern that whoever becomes POTUS completes his second term, and based on the conspiracy theories and his outlandish talk, that his supporters seem to believe, there is every chance he will get a second term in office.

    Biden is a better choice than Bernie or Warren, IMV. And as far as India is concerned, we've worked with him during the Obama Presidency, so transition would be smooth. HRC is also a better choice given her dislike for Pakistan, but she ain't becoming POTUS.

    We also had PMs like that, the silent MMS, we tolerated him for 10 years. If President Trump gets 4 more years, it's for you all to display your tolerance level. OTOH, there is every chance TH would move to some other country. :D
    Last edited by Oracle; 29 Apr 20, at 03:04.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  8. #53
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I don't follow US internal politics as much as you guys do. I comment based on what I read on US media. So the percentage of voters in the undecided lot is 3%. It's too small to be hinged upon. Once (2016) it made a difference, but it won't be the same this time. To be frank, I for a second didn't think President Trump would win in 2016. There is a pattern that whoever becomes POTUS completes his second term, and based on the conspiracy theories and his outlandish talk, that his supporters seem to believe, there is every chance he will get a second term in office.

    Biden is a better choice than Bernie or Warren, IMV. And as far as India is concerned, we've worked with him during the Obama Presidency, so transition would be smooth. HRC is also a better choice given her dislike for Pakistan, but she ain't becoming POTUS.

    We also had PMs like that, the silent MMS, we tolerated him for 10 years. If President Trump gets 4 more years, it's for you all to display your tolerance level. OTOH, there is every chance TH would move to some other country. :D
    No not 3% total. The country sorts out to be about 43% Republican and 48% Democratic nationally. If the vote were national there would be a big problem for the Republicans which is why they try to limit the vote. Notice how they go crazy over limits to the 2nd amendment but limiting the vote is Ok with them. Personally, the right to vote is far more important than to own a gun but that is Republicans for you.

    Now as to those numbers they can vary a fair amount from state to state which is why the Electoral College is what they chase. California and New York are far more Democratic while Idaho and Montana are far more Republican. Then there are the states that are closer. This is where the other 9% come into play. When polled they say they are undecided or independent. Some of that group have made up which way they lean but just don't want to tell you. Those that haven't decided can be in play to the very end. This is where the polling concerning the negatives of a candidate come into play. One could call it "I just don't like that guy for _______ reason. In the close states they are the ones to throw the state one way or the other. I'm sure Comey's announcement concerning HRC threw a bunch of I hate both over to Trump because they now have a reason to hate HRC more. Frankly both people were polarizing.

    I can safely say that the polling would find that the I hate Biden mood among this group of election undecideds will be much smaller than Trump's. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.71%, Michigan by 0.23%, Pennsylvania by 0.71% and Florida by 1.2%. Just an eyelash change and he loses them. Arizona was won by 3.54% and that state may be in play now. The four states are 75 electoral votes while AZ is 11 more. Trump won with 306 and you need 270 to win. Do the math. He can afford to lose just 35 votes. I'd say he has a problem this time around as his true nature has now been exposed to those who took a flyer on him.
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 29 Apr 20, at 08:15.

  9. #54
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    indeed, as I said, the IHME was overly-optimistic and flawed due to the inclusion of PRC "data".

    where I went wrong was by saying it was optimistic but realistic. it's become clear it's certainly not the latter.

    they predicted 60,400 deaths -by August-. we'll probably blow past that figure Monday, April 27.

    unfortunately my "possible" guess of 80K by the end of this month will be pretty accurate.
    Close as I just checked yesterdays stats and saw 59,266 and we have a death rate of 29% of the closed cases. If we keep getting 25,000 new cases each day we will no doubt blow past 100,000 by Memorial Weekend. See some states are moving up rather than down.

  10. #55
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Hindsight is 20/20.

    In regards to the 40,000 ventilators, better to have and not need, than to need and not have.
    This is my personal philosophy too.

    2 - 3 x more if possible is fine.

    But how does Cuomo get it off by an order of magnitude ?

    I mean they have a certain number, they can see the rate they are getting through them and hence ask for more.

  11. #56
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    It tells me that Cuomo was asking for ventilators to cover 0.48% of potential New York City COVID-19 patients.

    Got that? Less than one half of one percent of the population.

    Donald Trump can't plan 5 minutes into the future.
    If he'd given Cuomo more than he had then other states would have to get by with less.

    So Trump made the right call. Yes ?

    That's why i posted that screen grab.

    The projections are way up here and the reality is somewhere down there.

    Got that ?

  12. #57
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Great info from Professor Kim Woo-joo, the South Korean version of Dr Fauci. A bit long but well worth it.




    First is from end march and covers the basics

    Second from mid April has a lot of interesting info and his explanations are easy to understand.

    Am looking forward to more from the professor.

    These heads of response tend to be excellent communicators. I've seen similar from the Indian side.

    Really awesome people.

    Thing that sticks in my mind is he said there was research that indicated people are infectious two days before they develop symptoms. Incubation period is 14 days. That means they are infectious for only two out of those 14 ?

    What i've noticed is onset can happen sooner than 14 days. A week tops.

    A follow up question that should have been asked is whether asymptomatic people as as infectious ? my sense is no but there is research that says asymptomatic are as infectious which does not make sense to me.

    People develop symptoms when they cross 5,000 units of the virus. Therefore asymptomatic people must carry a lower viral load. Somehow their body manages to fight off the virus to keep them asymptomatic. This is just me speculating btw.

    He says 2 days before developing symptoms is scary, its a lot less scary that people being infectious for longer without developing symptoms.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Apr 20, at 22:08.

  13. #58
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    US supports firms weighing India as alternative to China

    This is once in a century opportunity.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  14. #59
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post


    Thing that sticks in my mind is he said there was research that indicated people are infectious two days before they develop symptoms. Incubation period is 14 days. That means they are infectious for only two out of those 14 ?
    That is not my take on that. More like the people believed they were infectious while showing symptoms and they have found that you can be infectious when not showing any symptoms. Remember we are having health care workers contracting the virus in the hospitals and all the patients there are definitely sick.

  15. #60
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    US supports firms weighing India as alternative to China

    This is once in a century opportunity.
    Would be a win win for sure. Improve your economy for the average citizen like we did for China. Of course, us improving the economy for China has enabled China to flex her newly bought muscle around the world. Initiating some withdrawal symptoms sounds like a good idea.

    Of course a bigger economy leads to more air pollution. It is amazing how good New Delhi looks during the month of March with clear air and April may be better.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/world...hnk/index.html
    Last edited by tbm3fan; 29 Apr 20, at 19:25.

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