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Thread: COVID 19: Beyond the US and China

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I will if i find it, its a screen grab off some presentation.
    Would it kill you to use reliable sources?
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  2. #32
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    DE,
    Would it kill you to post a SOURCE for that graph?
    It's from one of Andrew Cuomo's press conferences.

    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  3. #33
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    The IMF down grades Planet Earth

    The IMF down grades Planet Earth

    As compared to the same IMF analysis released in October 2019, the global economy is now expected to contract by $4.15 trillion in 2020, rather than growing by $3.66 trillion. In other words, COVID-19 will cut the expected size of global GDP by $7.26 trillion this year, and another $5.37 trillion in 2021.

    In real terms, the +3.3% 2020 forecast is now -3.0%, and the bounce back in 2021 is expected to be +5.8%.

    Real GDP Growth _ _ _ _ _ _ 2020 _ _ _ 2021
    World _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -3.0% _ _ _ _+5.8%
    Advanced economies _ _ _ _ -6.1% _ _ _ _+4.5%
    => USA _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -5.9% _ _ _ _+4.7%
    => Euro Area_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _-7.5% _ _ _ _+4.7%
    => Japan _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -5.2% _ _ _ _+3.0%
    China __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ +1.2% _ _ _ +9.2%
    India __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ +1.9% _ _ _ _+7.4%

    In the US, unemployment is expected to average 10.4% in 2020 and 9.1% the following year. The Euro Area will be about the same (10.4% and 8.9%), with Spain and Greece back up above 20% this year.

    The US Federal deficit is expected to be 15.4% of GDP ini 2020 and 8.6% in 2021. It was 5.7-5.8% in 2018 and 2019.

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...weo-april-2020
    Trust me?
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  4. #34
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Long term fiscal disaster

    IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2020
    General Government Balance (% of GDP)
    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2018 _ _2019 _ _2020 _ _2021
    United States _ _ -5.7% _ -5.8% _ -15.4% _ -8.6%
    Canada _ _ _ _ _ -0.4% _ -0.4% _ -11.8% _ -3.8%
    Germany _ _ _ _ _+1.9% _ +1.4% _ -5.5% _ _-1.2%
    France _ _ _ _ _ _-2.3% _ -3.0% _ -9.2% _ _ -6.2%
    United Kingdom _ _-2.2% _ -2.1% _ -8.3% _ _-5.5%
    Japan _ _ _ _ _ _ -2.4% _ -2.8% _ -7.1% _ _ -2.1%
    China _ _ _ _ _ _ _-4.7% _ -6.4% _ -11.2% _ -9.6%
    India _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -6.3% _ -7.4% _ -7.4% _ _ -7.3%
    Trust me?
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  5. #35
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Now your Minnesota doctor just screams fraud to me. Either he is being disingenuous or is an intelligent person who has become stupid which happens all the time. Either or since his story is easy enough to check by talking to all doctors in Minnesota. Heck, check all the doctors in the country since he brings in the AMA. He is someone who needs to meet the virus first hand.
    yes, fraud. That is what he is hinting at.

    Here he is on fox on Apr 09

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/physic...unt-guidelines

    He mentions figures, are those true ? can a hospital claim more if the death was C19 ?

    He happens to be a sitting senator in MN as well.

    Host mentioned Italy is reclassifying how they registered deaths. That is something dig into

    The way deaths are being counted seems to vary across countries.

  6. #36
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    yes, fraud. That is what he is hinting at.

    Here he is on fox on Apr 09

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/physic...unt-guidelines

    He mentions figures, are those true ? can a hospital claim more if the death was C19 ?

    He happens to be a sitting senator in MN as well.

    Host mentioned Italy is reclassifying how they registered deaths. That is something dig into

    The way deaths are being counted seems to vary across countries.
    First I don't waste my time looking at Fox like you do. I only watch the CBS Evening News at 6:30 and that is it.

    So may I remind you that it it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck, it is a duck. He is a fraud through and through and of course would be invited to be on Fox. I can smell him from where I am. Just because he is a doctor does not mean he is above reproach. I can tell you that there are a fair amount who are as crooked as sin so he doesn't get a pass just because he has Dr. in front and MD behind.

    If you want to discuss this guy further then get a mirror.

  7. #37
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    First I don't waste my time looking at Fox like you do. I only watch the CBS Evening News at 6:30 and that is it.

    So may I remind you that it it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck, it is a duck. He is a fraud through and through and of course would be invited to be on Fox. I can smell him from where I am. Just because he is a doctor does not mean he is above reproach. I can tell you that there are a fair amount who are as crooked as sin so he doesn't get a pass just because he has Dr. in front and MD behind.

    If you want to discuss this guy further then get a mirror.
    Reason for posting the Fox interview was she throws back at him what Fauci said.

    You have not addressed anything he said just slammed it.

    The point he makes about how deaths are counted is important.

    Depending on the country there is either a tendency to over state (socialised health care system) or under state (political reasons).

    Neither helps.

  8. #38
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    If you can't measure it, you cannot manage it - Jack Welch

    Counting coronavirus: How are different countries calculating death tolls, and can you trust them? | Telegraph | Mar 31 2020

    Testing capacity, differing public health protocols and political meddling may have distorted coronavirus death counts around the world

    By Roland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT
    31 March 2020 • 6:03pm

    The British government has faced criticism after new figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest the death toll from coronavirus is a quarter higher than previously reported.

    But Britain is not alone in struggling to count coronavirus casualties accurately.

    A mixture of pressures on testing capacity, differing counting protocols, and political meddling may have distorted death and infection rates around the world.

    The specifics vary from country to country, but almost everywhere statisticians have to contend with a shortage of testing capacity, meaning only a small proportion of suspected coronavirus deaths can be firmly linked to the infection.

    Then there is the issue of deciding what exactly caused death when a patient was already suffering from underlying health problems.

    So how are different countries counting? And how trustworthy are their figures?

    Death tolls cited here are officials figures as of March 31.

    Italy
    Official deaths: 11,591

    Italy has reported more than 11,000 deaths from coronavirus, more than any other country in the world.

    But experts say the number may be inflated because of the way in which fatalities are recorded.

    The Italian health system counts not only people who died directly from coronavirus but also who died with coronavirus, regardless of whether or not they were suffering from one or more serious diseases when they contracted it.

    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus,” said Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to the Italian government on the crisis.

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he said.


    Spain
    Official deaths: 8,189

    Spain, which has the second highest death rate in Europe, is like Italy counting all deaths of coronavirus-positive people in its death toll.

    But the number of deaths is still thought to be considerably higher than the official figure because many people are succumbing to the virus in their homes or in care homes for the elderly, without having been tested.

    According to a study by the Carlos III Health Institute and shared with the newspaper El País, there may be up to three times more people dying of Covid-19 outside hospitals than is currently being calculated in the official statistics.

    China
    Official deaths: 3,309

    China has not clarified what cases are included in its official death tally, though families have told the Telegraph that relatives dying from what doctors strongly hinted was the novel coronavirus were never included in the government's count, as they were never tested.

    And like most other countries, China has also had to grapple with limited lab capacity to process tests.

    It has also revised the methods used to count confirmed cases several times, and there are reports Chinese health officials are also not including asymptomatic patients, even if they test positive.

    Nagging doubts about the reliability of the official case numbers and fatality rates has been exacerbated by the country's poor track record with transparency during public health emergencies, such as the Sars outbreak nearly 20 years ago.

    Some have also questioned the convenient timing of shifts in the statistical picture - in particular the war figures began to improve just as ruling Communist Party leader Xi Jinping declared victory in the "people's war" against the virus.

    Could those pressures have led Chinese officials to underestimate the size of the challenge? Some foreign governments certainly seem to think so.

    United States
    Official deaths: 3,170

    In the United States there is some confusion over what constitutes a coronavirus death, with counting protocol varying from state to state and several instances of miss-reporting.

    The US Center for Disease Control compiles a national figure from statistics provided by individual states.

    But while some of them count any deceased person who tested positive for coronavirus as a fatality caused by the virus, while others are more discriminating.

    And the picture has been marred by several cases in which a death was attributed to coronavirus either prematurely or entirely mistakenly.


    For example, in Louisiana a child aged under one was included in the official death toll. It led to widespread reports that the infant had died from coronavirus, when in fact the cause of death was still being investigated.

    In California, reports initially suggested that a 17-year-old had died from coronavirus after being refused treatment at a hospital due to a lack of health insurance. It later emerged that he had died of septic shock.

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    France
    Deaths: 3,032

    Jérome Salomon, France's director general for public health, has acknowledged that nursing homes are a site of high mortality due to the new coronavirus and that "deaths in hospitals probably represent a small part of the overall mortality".

    Like their colleagues in Britain, French health officials have chosen to test only the most serious cases of Covid-19, mainly those requiring hospitalisation.

    And unlike in Italy, France does not carry out postmortem tests, so if someone with Covid-19 symptoms dies before being tested, they are not counted.

    Mr Salomon on Saturday announced a new calculation factoring in retirement home deaths and weekly "excess mortality" locally and nationally detected by INSEE, the country's national statistics office.

    As a result, the number of deaths are likely to spike considerably in France in the coming days.

    Iran
    Official deaths: 2,898

    Access to coronavirus testing kits in Iran is limited, and so they are reserved only for the severely ill.

    This means that even if the figures published on infection rates and deaths in Iran were reliable, the mortality rate would likely be higher because the testing pool consists entirely of people more at risk of dying from the virus.

    Even the figures published by the Iranian regime suggest a very high mortality rate - around seven per cent - which may be linked to an overwhelmed health system.

    There are major disparities in the death tolls reported by Middle Eastern countries.

    Israel, which has some of the most advanced healthcare services in the world, has confirmed around 15 deaths, while in war-torn Syria only one person is reported to have died from the disease - quite likely because of an almost total lack of testing

    Meanwhile Egypt claims it has only seen 36 deaths, and has taken repressive measures against anyone who questions it, including expelling a reporter for The Guardian who reported on a scientific paper suggesting the true rate of infection was much higher.

    Belgium
    Official deaths: 705

    In Belgium, where the death toll stood at 705 since the outbreak of the pandemic on Tuesday, anyone who dies of complications related to coronavirus is counted as a victim of the disease.

    But only hospitalised patients are tested for the coronavirus, which authorities acknowledge means the true mortality rate could be higher. The infection rate is certainly higher than the official 11,899 cases detected in Belgium so far.

    Poland
    Official deaths: 32

    Poland had recorded 32 deaths to Covid-19 by Tuesday - a remarkably low figure for a country of 38 million people, and one that has seen the government accused of cherry-picking fatalities to suppress the true picture.

    There seem to be a couple of reasons for the low figures. Firstly, like France and Belgium, only those who have tested positive - which effectively means only hospital deaths - are listed as coronavirus casualties, excluding anyone who died at home.

    Secondly, even when victims have tested positive for the virus before dying, cases are typically attributed to an underlying illness if other health problems were present.

    This has prompted speculation in the media that the actual death rate to COVID-19 may be 25 to 30 per cent higher than the official statistics suggest.

    Russia
    Official deaths: 17

    Russian doctors do not count every death of a coronavirus-positive person as a coronavirus fatality, and there has been speculation among some that authorities have been turning to creative accounting to suppress the true mortality rates.

    When a 79-year old woman died earlier this month in one of Moscow’s two main hospitals for treating Covid-19 patients, officials refused to log her as Russia’s first victim because she had several underlying illnesses and died of a blood clot .

    Patients who develop pneumonia after contracting coronavirus and die are typically classified as victims of coronavirus.

    South Korea
    Official deaths: 162

    South Korea's aggressive “trace, test, treat” system has been credited with arresting a dramatic surge in cases in February, keeping infections below 10,000 and deaths at 158 - one of the lowest mortality rates in the world.

    The use of mass testing – close to 400,000 have been carried out, the highest proportion of any national population in the world - also gives a much more accurate picture of the number of mildly affected or asymptomatic carriers, allowing them to isolate and curbing the danger of spreading the virus to more vulnerable members of society.

    That also means the death rate is much more likely to be reliable than almost anyone else's, particularly European countries like Britain and France which are still struggling to test anyone who has not been hospitalised.

    Taiwan
    Official deaths: 5

    Taiwan, another global leader in its response to Covid-19, has recorded just five deaths since January, all of them attributed to coronavirus complications but have occurred in patients who already had chronic health conditions, including cardiovascular disease or diabetes.

    Taiwan’s Centres for Disease Control has been praised for its clear communication with the public, and updates the number of detected cases daily on its website and social media accounts, providing details of where and how the virus was contracted, in an effort to reassure the population.

    Reporting by Sophia Yan in Beijing, James Rothwell in Jerusalem, James Crisp in Brussels, Nicola Smith in Taipei, Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow, Matthew Day in Warsaw, Henry Samuel in Washington, James Badcock in Madrid, and Nick Allen in Washington

  9. #39
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Unless counting methods are normalised across countries, it will be difficult to gauge the extent of the crisis. This brings into question how effective counter measures can be.

    Died of Covid, or died with Covid? | TOI | Apr 20 2020

    Rema Nagarajan & Malathy Iyer | TNN | Apr 20, 2020, 07:15 IST

    On Friday Wuhan in China revised its Covid-19 death toll upward by 50% to 3,869 and New York city last week upped its toll by 3,778 after it began reporting deaths of people who were suspected of having Covid but weren’t tested

    UK’s death count of over 15,400 could go up by thousands if nursing home deaths are found to be from Covid, according to multiple reports

    With growing evidence that the virus not only damages the lungs but also the heart, kidneys and other organs, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the US has issued an advisory saying that even cases where the infection is not confirmed by a test may now be counted

    As many countries begin to accept that undercounting of Covid-19 deaths is inevitable and that official mortality statistics could end up excluding many such deaths, public health experts here say this could be even truer in India. Even in non-Covid times, only about 22% of deaths are medically certified in India, while roughly 10 lakh deaths a year don’t even get registered. Thus, not only are Covid deaths likely to get undercounted, even deaths due to other causes with people not being able to access the health system during lockdown or due to the health system’s intense focus on Covid may not get fully counted.

    One of India's most respected epidemiologists, Dr Jayaprakash Muliyal, who was principal of Christian Medical College in Vellore, said unless a patient dies in hospital there is no way of knowing for certain if it was a Covid death.

    “Death reporting in India has always been a problem zone; more so while ascertaining the cause of death,” he said. “We have criteria for everything in India. Chennai eradicated malaria a few years back by classifying such deaths as fever deaths. In order to eliminate cholera, Kolkata decided to classify such cases as gastroenteritis,” Muliyal added.

    The apprehension that deaths could be understated through ‘reclassification’ has reason. There are reports from some states that hospitals are being pressured to keep the Covid toll down by attributing some deaths primarily to other causes, opening up a debate over whether a patient “died of Covid vs died with Covid”.

    Crucial for countries to have reliable mortality data: Experts

    West Bengal has set up an expert committee to ‘ascertain’ whether deaths of coronavirus positive patients are actually due to the virus. Mumbai’s municipal corporation has decided that all suspected Covid deaths will be subjected to an audit before being confirmed.

    Unless countries have reliable mortality data and there is a substantial jump in overall mortality as happened in Italy and the Netherlands, where the mortality data showed twice as many excess deaths as the official Covid count, it would be difficult to even estimate the extent of under-counting, point out experts.

    In India, the chief registrar of births and deaths estimated 70 lakh deaths in 2017, of which about 60 lakh were registered. Of those, only 14.1 lakh or 22% were medically certified. In many states, less than 10% of deaths were medically certified.

    Many co-morbidities, like heart disease, respiratory disease and diabetes, that make people vulnerable to Covid and increase chances of succumbing to the disease are also conditions that account for the highest proportion of deaths in India.

    As per the government’s report on disease burden trends in 2016, about 1.6 lakh died of cardiovascular diseases every month, over 64,000 from chronic respiratory illnesses, and several thousands from cancer and diabetes. Thus, without adequate testing and protocols on death certification, many deaths from Covid could be certified as being caused by the co-morbidities or in some cases vice versa.

    Dr Rama Baru from the Centre of Social Medicine and Community Health in JNU says, “How can you estimate Covid deaths without adequate testing facilities?

  10. #40
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    Found the model Dr Fauci cited

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    Projected deaths on 1 May is 49K (min 25K -max 105K). COVID-19 will peter out around 1 June with 61K (min 26K to 153K), 180K+ is simply out of whack.
    wanted to follow up now.

    it is 4/24 and US deaths are now at 50,369. deaths per day remain steady at around 2300-2500/day.

    new active cases are holding roughly steady at around 30K per day, even as the NYC cluster continues to decline -- that means the other clusters are speeding up in growth.

    in short, by 1 May we will likely be over 60K deaths.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #41
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    ^was going to add, that the model was by Christopher Murray from Washington

    http://www.healthdata.org/acting-dat...s-murray-model

  12. #42
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    indeed, as I said, the IHME was overly-optimistic and flawed due to the inclusion of PRC "data".

    where I went wrong was by saying it was optimistic but realistic. it's become clear it's certainly not the latter.

    they predicted 60,400 deaths -by August-. we'll probably blow past that figure Monday, April 27.

    unfortunately my "possible" guess of 80K by the end of this month will be pretty accurate.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #43
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Great info from Professor Kim Woo-joo, the South Korean version of Dr Fauci. A bit long but well worth it.



    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  14. #44
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Info on vaccines from Dr. Jerome Kim, the Director General of the International Vaccine Institute

    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  15. #45
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    indeed, as I said, the IHME was overly-optimistic and flawed due to the inclusion of PRC "data".

    where I went wrong was by saying it was optimistic but realistic. it's become clear it's certainly not the latter.

    they predicted 60,400 deaths -by August-. we'll probably blow past that figure Monday, April 27.

    unfortunately my "possible" guess of 80K by the end of this month will be pretty accurate.
    Not looked at the model yet, i made that post just to say out of 18 models proposed the WH went with the Washington model, by Chris Murray

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