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Thread: COVID 19: Beyond the US and China

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    How about we agree to STOP going on incomplete info?
    This is nonsense in itself. This entire COVID-19 situation is extremely dynamic and fluid. There is no such thing as complete info.

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    How about we agree to STOP posting things that have no reliable sources?
    What are reliable sources? Are Dr Fauci and Dr Blix reliable sources? Remember 80,000 American dead by the end of April?

    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    How about we agree that comparing Paul Krugman with Steve Bannon is INSANE?
    What is so insane about showing the projections are wrong?

    Are you that hung up that you refuse to read the enemy?

    Read the intel.
    Read the ground.
    Read the enemy.
    Read the situation.

    Then, decide.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 12 Apr 20, at 18:37.

  2. #17
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    What are reliable sources? Are Dr Fauci and Dr Blix reliable sources? Remember 80,000 American dead by the end of April?
    when did Dr Fauci and Dr Brix say this? as far as I remember, they didn't actually put a time-stamp on the dead count.

    BTW, the US currently has 497,000 active cases.

    if ALL infections were to stop NOW, as in zero new cases starting today, given current completion trends from the already known infected we're going to be at roughly 183,000 dead in roughly 2-3 weeks with the completion of the cycle.

    so even if we were to arbitrarily cut the mortality rate by almost half, that's still 100,000 dead in that period of time.

    80,000 by the end of April is -fully- possible. the currently predicted 60,000 dead is optimistic, but within reality. anything even moderately lower than that is simply fantasy.

    remember, we're -still- increasing some 30K cases every day.

    we're averaging 2K deaths everyday for the last week, and given the 2 week cycle of COVID the newly dead were infected back when the caseload was only 100-150K vs 500K today.
    Last edited by astralis; 12 Apr 20, at 19:37.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    when did Dr Fauci and Dr Brix say this? as far as I remember, they didn't actually put a time-stamp on the dead count.
    I stand corrected.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    if ALL infections were to stop NOW, as in zero new cases starting today, given current completion trends from the already known infected we're going to be at roughly 183,000 dead in roughly 3 weeks.
    Wrong. Read the intel, not the propaganda.

    Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

    Death rate among patients admitted to hospital

    A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. [9]

    A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]
    Days from first symptom to death

    The Wang et al. February 7 study published on JAMA found that the median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days.[9]

    Previously. the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.[6]
    Median Hospital Stay

    The JANA study found that, among those discharged alive, the median hospital stay was 10 days.[9]

    ...

    An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

    CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

    which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

    113,274 / (113,274 + 421,481) = 21% CFR (worldwide)

    If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:

    109,935 / (109,935 + 343,906) = 24.2% CFR (outside of mainland China)
    79/21 death rate is for those admitted to hospital and admitted to hospital only.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 12 Apr 20, at 19:44.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    80,000 by the end of April is -fully- possible. the currently predicted 60,000 dead is optimistic, but within reality. anything even moderately lower than that is simply fantasy.

    remember, we're -still- increasing some 30K cases every day.

    we're averaging 2K deaths everyday for the last week, and given the 2 week cycle of COVID the newly dead were infected back when the caseload was only 100-150K vs 500K today.
    So, containment has failed. Even within NYC. No signs of approaching the peak and drop off after 16 Apr.

    BTW, the low end of Dr Fauci's early projection was 39,000. The high end was 82,000. Has the low end come up as well?
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 12 Apr 20, at 20:06.

  5. #20
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    79/21 death rate is for those admitted to hospital and admitted to hospital only.
    i'm not using 79/21 death rate.

    i'm using 59/41 death rate, and -then- factoring in some optimism. yes, 59/41:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    there's 52,787 closed cases. 31,120 recovered/discharged; 21,667 deaths.

    simply do some extrapolation from when 52,787 closed cases becomes 550,000 closed cases two weeks from now.

    the percentage will come down, because we saw the same with Italy. but the percentage won't come down -that- significantly so that the end death count will be much lower than 60,000.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i'm not using 79/21 death rate.

    i'm using 59/41 death rate, and -then- factoring in some optimism. yes, 59/41:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Which again used hospital visits. Even from straight math alone, there were 150,000 cases two weeks ago. As of today, only 11,000 critical cases. You can't tell me that 100,000 will suddenly become critical.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 12 Apr 20, at 21:26.

  7. #22
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post

    What good were these models in predicting the 2008 financial crisis ? said crisis that created this class of deplorables that voted Trump into office. That have a healthy scepticism of people in white coats saying do this and that or we will all die.

    btw, until 2015, i was a keen reader of the global warming thread, so i'm quite influenced by what i learnt there. Robust questioning of the conventional narrative. That thread pretty much defines what this place is about for me in terms of the thinking and debating style. Good stuff. note how they kept at it for weeks and months, nay, years. You can't get that on social media where people want conclusions and wrap ups in a day or two or they lose interest. Only possible on forums.

    Senator Dr. Scott Jensen of Minnesota came out to expose how the AMA is encouraging American doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the US. He showed a 7-page document coaching him, as a doctor, to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus. Why? Because of the package for this relief, hospitals are paid more to attend this virus. NOBODY is dying of the flu any more – only COVID-19

    The numbers will then be used to justify keeping the money flowing to misrepresent this as an epidemic. This fraud will then come back to justify keeping the economy locked down longer and the AMA is now contributing to the destruction of everyone’s livelihood, pension, and this exposes the corruption that always emerges with government programs.



    People outright calling out corruption in the making and your stance is to brush it aside. Why ?

    Isn't there even a grain of plausibility in there.

    When $20 tr gets wiped off the stock market what does that do to people's pensions. Can they afford to retire at all or do they have to continue working until they drop.

    Every kid born in the US since the last decade has around $80k of public debt hanging over them.

    Some American dream this is.
    You are still a merchant of rumors and you try to cover it up by using an age old tactics just like Trump. I heard it somewhere. I read it somewhere. I thought I'd post it so others could decide for themselves. All very tried and true methods used in disinformation. People just like you have spread the ideas that sunlight can kill the virus. That warm weather will kill the virus. That drinking lots of water will kill the virus. That drinking industrial strength alcohol will kill the virus. Oh, I know it's not true , but. You suck up any pseudo scientific ideas and pass it along. You put a link in with your comment which lends the air of official to it which is another tried and true technique in disinformation. Oh look there is a link by DE so it must be true and I can take his word.

    Now your Minnesota doctor just screams fraud to me. Either he is being disingenuous or is an intelligent person who has become stupid which happens all the time. Either or since his story is easy enough to check by talking to all doctors in Minnesota. Heck, check all the doctors in the country since he brings in the AMA. He is someone who needs to meet the virus first hand.

    To me social media is probably the biggest scourge on the human condition when combined with cell phones. Everyone thinks they are linked throughout the world and can share their ideas no matter how crazy they might be and share they do. That combo has made many an American stupid as they now fall for every trick in the book many times. Actually should say human since the issue isn't confined to America. Thinking has been abandoned by many and turned over to social media. As for me I'm from Missouri and don't believe anything someone tells me and never have. Ask my wife every time she gets pissed off that I double check what she tells me she read. Combine that with the scientist in me and you will know why I consider you to be a prime purveyor of nonsense.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the percentage will come down, because we saw the same with Italy. but the percentage won't come down -that- significantly so that the end death count will be much lower than 60,000.
    Found the model Dr Fauci cited

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    Projected deaths on 1 May is 49K (min 25K -max 105K). COVID-19 will peter out around 1 June with 61K (min 26K to 153K), 180K+ is simply out of whack.

  9. #24
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    How about we agree that comparing Paul Krugman with Steve Bannon is INSANE?
    Steve Bannon is agreeing with the $2 tr stimulus. Telling people not to bash it.

    Not comparing Krugman with him. How to do that. Bannon isn't an economist.

    Bannon was a former naval officer and after served on a trading floor.

    He has an idea of how things work.

    And yeah thanks for stone walling me on the other two.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Apr 20, at 01:10.

  10. #25
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    i know the model that Dr Fauci is using. it's a realistic but optimistic one, skewed because it factors in the screwy data from China. plus, it assumes continued lockdown of the use through 5/31, which is not a given at this point.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-model-agrees/

    Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME model embraces an entirely different statistical approach, taking the trending curve of deaths from China, and “fitting” that curve to emerging death data from U.S. cities and counties to predict what might come next.

    For that reason, many experts saw IHME as overly optimistic when it was launched March 26. Few U.S. states or cities are taking action as drastic as what was adopted in Wuhan, China — the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic — or even Northern Italy in locking down residents.
    Even from straight math alone, there were 150,000 cases two weeks ago. As of today, only 11,000 critical cases. You can't tell me that 100,000 will suddenly become critic
    I don't know that "critical" is a good indicator. it means "critical" at -that point in time- when they were tested. there's a significant number of cases that were "mild" when tested that become "critical" later, otherwise we wouldn't have 22K deaths now based on the 4% (remember, at the time) serious/critical rate.

    closed cases should be the metric used because either you recover or die, and there's one entire loop of data.

    there's no in-between and/or possible changes that you'd get with "mild" or "critical" at time of testing.

    in the end, what we're saying is not that far apart. 60K is hopeful but realistic for this first wave. I think anything under 100K by August or so is pretty good given current models.
    Last edited by astralis; 13 Apr 20, at 03:04.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #26
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    You are still a merchant of rumors and you try to cover it up by using an age old tactics just like Trump. I heard it somewhere. I read it somewhere. I thought I'd post it so others could decide for themselves. All very tried and true methods used in disinformation. People just like you have spread the ideas that sunlight can kill the virus. That warm weather will kill the virus. That drinking lots of water will kill the virus. That drinking industrial strength alcohol will kill the virus. Oh, I know it's not true , but. You suck up any pseudo scientific ideas and pass it along. You put a link in with your comment which lends the air of official to it which is another tried and true technique in disinformation. Oh look there is a link by DE so it must be true and I can take his word.
    I could reply to that rant but i think it would be more productive to get you to focus on the graphic below.

    Name:  total covid beds.jpg
Views: 93
Size:  57.2 KB

    Where is the disinformation in it ? It does seem self explanatory. Wish i could find the clip from where it came from.

    i refuse to believe 100 - 240k americans will die.

    That's just a hustle to me. Scare you enough to get your attention and make you more open to what ever they pitch ?

    How many times have we seen that game being played.


    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Now your Minnesota doctor just screams fraud to me. Either he is being disingenuous or is an intelligent person who has become stupid which happens all the time. Either or since his story is easy enough to check by talking to all doctors in Minnesota. Heck, check all the doctors in the country since he brings in the AMA. He is someone who needs to meet the virus first hand.
    Reporting deaths as C19 is getting contentious. Usually they try to underplay it, here the opposite is being suggested.

    I can't tell right now if that doctor is lying or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    To me social media is probably the biggest scourge on the human condition when combined with cell phones. Everyone thinks they are linked throughout the world and can share their ideas no matter how crazy they might be and share they do. That combo has made many an American stupid as they now fall for every trick in the book many times. Actually should say human since the issue isn't confined to America. Thinking has been abandoned by many and turned over to social media. As for me I'm from Missouri and don't believe anything someone tells me and never have. Ask my wife every time she gets pissed off that I double check what she tells me she read. Combine that with the scientist in me and you will know why I consider you to be a prime purveyor of nonsense.
    I don't have time to fact every single thing. That is where this board comes in. Some will pass muster and some won't.

    Being wrong here is something i'm not afraid of. If you're never wrong, then you ain't trying hard enough : )

    The payoff to online participation isn't when you're right. It's when you learn where you were wrong.

    This is a fast moving topic and things are out of date fast. Not too long ago i thought 50k infected in the US was a lot. That sure changed.

    I track topics so we have a record of what was said and what happened after.

    I intend to continue as is, feel free to join in if you want.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Apr 20, at 03:47.

  12. #27
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    It is far better to do too much than too little; don’t let ideology get in the way.
    What i'm getting from this line is, in the estimation business it is better to over estimate than under estimate ?

    That graph bears this out quite well.

    It's counter-intuitive when we think how it works in other areas

    Under price to get the contract

    Under promise and over deliver
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Apr 20, at 04:05.

  13. #28
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Found the model Dr Fauci cited

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    Projected deaths on 1 May is 49K (min 25K -max 105K). COVID-19 will peter out around 1 June with 61K (min 26K to 153K), 180K+ is simply out of whack.
    You've quoted IHME model, she mentioned another one called Act Now as well.

  14. #29
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    DE,
    Would it kill you to post a SOURCE for that graph?
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  15. #30
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    DE,
    Would it kill you to post a SOURCE for that graph?
    I will if i find it, its a screen grab off some presentation.

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