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  • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    And that is exactly why he was replaced. "We are not at war." He abadonned his mission.

    How many have died? How many actually needed ventilators? Capt Crozier had the authority to medevac the infected. He did not. He only had 100 confirmed cases out of a crew of 4000. None of them life threatening.

    Fleet Command had determined quarrantine aboard ship would have worked. Indeed, that is part of the NBC training. Capt (N) Crozier did not find out.
    How many have died? What does a body count have to do with the fact that COVID-19 is highly contagious? Why wait to find out the body count and who will be incapacitated?

    The problem with COVID-19 is that acting on what is known now is a great way to have a morgue full of bodies weeks later.
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

    Comment


    • the thing is, Acting Secretary Modley's response was that the Navy was already planning to remove sick sailors off the ship and that Capt Crozier's letter didn't change anything.

      so you can hardly argue that Crozier was abandoning his mission. in fact, in his letter he gave Navy command two choices: either we remain mission ready and accept casualties, OR we remove the sailors off the ship. he was pinging for instructions. and according to Acting Secretary Modley, they were going to scrub the mission already!

      Modley's argument was NOT that Crozier was "abandoning the mission", it was that 1.) the letter was sent on unclas comms, 2.) Crozier cc'd a bunch of people instead of reaching out directly to him, and 3.) the letter caused panic among the crew and the family. Modley emphasized number 3 as the prime reason for firing.

      Modley said that he gave Crozier his personal cell phone number, and had his Chief of Staff check in with Crozier, and that Crozier did not avail himself of those resources.

      the absurdity of that argument is that if anything, Crozier giving Modley a call on his personal line would be even more insecure than sending a message on NIPR. and I don't see where -anyone- was panicking on account of the letter.
      Last edited by astralis; 04 Apr 20,, 20:09.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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      • Consider also what might be happening in the silent service, on board submarines.
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        • https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...letter/164336/

          Capt. Brett Crozier “demonstrated extremely poor judgement in the midst of a crisis” by sending a four-page request for urgent help to people outside his chain of command, Thomas Modly told reporters Thursday afternoon...

          Modly said Crozier could have “walked down the hall” to his immediate boss, the admiral in charge of the carrier’s strike group, or expressed his concerns in one of his conversations with Modly’s chief of staff. Instead, Crozier sent his March 30 letter over unsecure email to multiple Navy leaders in and outside his chain of command, and it made its way to the San Francisco Chronicle, which published it on Tuesday.

          Modly denied that the letter and its intense media coverage spurred the Navy into quicker action. And he denied that Crozier’s firing was “retribution,” praising the captain for looking out for his crew and sounding alarms.

          “It was the way in which he did it,” said Modly.

          Adm. Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations, said he agreed with the decision.

          Modly said the letter made it look as if the Navy was not helping Crozier. The acting secretary repeated his Wednesday denials that the Navy only took action after the letter, and reiterated that preparations for evacuating the majority of the crew had already begun at that point....

          “And that’s what’s frustrating about it: it created the perception that the Navy’s not on the job, and the government’s not on the job,” the acting secretary said...The secretary alleged it created “a mini-panic” among the crew and their families.
          ===

          so yeah, f*ck Modley.
          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

          Comment


          • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
            My point was that Theodore Roosevelt was mission-incapable due to COVID-19. The only mission left was to get as much of the healthy crew off the ship as possible and the sick crew to the proper medical facilities ashore.

            Which is exactly what the Navy finally did.
            I have to think that this will cause some opponents to increase consideration of biological warfare (eg. Noroviruses) to mission kill CSGs, perhaps also the navy's strategic deterrent.
            Last edited by JRT; 04 Apr 20,, 20:22.
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            • I have to think that this will cause some opponents to increase consideration of biological warfare (eg. Noroviruses) to mission kill CSGs, perhaps also the navy's strategic deterrent.
              unlikely; if this was found out, this would be considered use of WMD. so they might as well just nuke CSGs if it came to that; it'd get the same (nuclear) response.
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

              Comment


              • Originally posted by JRT View Post
                I have to think that this will cause some opponents to increase consideration of biological warfare (eg. Noroviruses) to mission kill CSGs, perhaps also the navy's strategic deterrent.
                My impression is that we can still operate the carrier if necessary, we just need to pack a few bodybags for the crew. That might not be an acceptable trade-off during peace time, but if you actually tried to exploit an assumed strategic weakness, we could still steam the carrier right to where it needs to be.

                Also, this virus is hitting a lot more than just a carrier, likely so would any engineered weapon that tried to do the same thing. The US is currently undergoing an economic contraction not seen since the Great Depression. If you hit the US with that....that's going to provoke quite a reaction. I mean, if we actually find out that this is the result of enemy action, my new guiding philosophy is going to involve mega-deaths and trillions of dollars spent on SDI 2.0.
                "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

                Comment


                • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                  How many have died? What does a body count have to do with the fact that COVID-19 is highly contagious? Why wait to find out the body count and who will be incapacitated?
                  With a 0.2% fatality rate? Risk well withiin acceptable limits.

                  Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                  The problem with COVID-19 is that acting on what is known now is a great way to have a morgue full of bodies weeks later.
                  We do know TODAY that the 20-39 year olds have a 0.2% mortality rate. The morgue WILL NOT BE FULL OF bodies. What will be of concern is a bunch of sailors with high fever and headaches and cannot concentrate enough to do their jobs.

                  Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  the thing is, Acting Secretary Modley's response was that the Navy was already planning to remove sick sailors off the ship and that Capt Crozier's letter didn't change anything.

                  so you can hardly argue that Crozier was abandoning his mission. in fact, in his letter he gave Navy command two choices: either we remain mission ready and accept casualties, OR we remove the sailors off the ship. he was pinging for instructions. and according to Acting Secretary Modley, they were going to scrub the mission already!

                  Modley's argument was NOT that Crozier was "abandoning the mission", it was that 1.) the letter was sent on unclas comms, 2.) Crozier cc'd a bunch of people instead of reaching out directly to him, and 3.) the letter caused panic among the crew and the family. Modley emphasized number 3 as the prime reason for firing.

                  Modley said that he gave Crozier his personal cell phone number, and had his Chief of Staff check in with Crozier, and that Crozier did not avail himself of those resources.

                  the absurdity of that argument is that if anything, Crozier giving Modley a call on his personal line would be even more insecure than sending a message on NIPR. and I don't see where -anyone- was panicking on account of the letter.
                  You also cannot have it both ways. Crozier CC'd people on a non-protected network knowing the shitstorm he was going to stir up. He specifically stated to quarrantine the entire crew, not just the sick.

                  Crozier also did not need permission to medevac people off his carrier. He decided on what he wanted done when he sent that letter.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 05 Apr 20,, 01:32.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • We do know TODAY that the 20-39 year olds have a 0.2% mortality rate.
                    actually, we don't. right now the variables are just all over the place, with mortality rates hugely different even across the developed world.

                    I know you're probably using the Worldometer stats, but those are based off the WHO-China Joint mission and the Chinese CDC. those figures aren't worth the paper they're typed on.

                    You also cannot have it both ways. Crozier CC'd people on a non-protected network knowing the shitstorm he was going to stir up. He specifically stated to quarrantine the entire crew, not just the sick.
                    that was the second COA that Crozier proposed, yes.

                    Modly's response was that Navy was already planning on doing this-- and that Modly had no issue with quarantining the entire ship. that is precisely what is happening right now.

                    Modly's stated rationale for losing confidence in Crozier was NOT because Crozier wanted to quarantine the ship. Modly lost confidence in Crozier because Crozier cc'd a lot of people on a non-secure network, and the subsequent leak supposedly lowered morale among the crew and the crew's families.

                    https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=112537

                    This decision is not one of retribution. It is about confidence. It is not an indictment of character, but rather of judgement. While I do take issue with thevalidity of some of the points in Captain Crozier’s letter, he was absolutely correct in raising them.

                    It was the way in which he did this, by not working through and with his Strike Group Commander to develop a strategy to resolve the problems he raised, by not sending the letter to and through his chain of command, by not protecting the sensitive nature of the information contained within the letter appropriately, and lastly by not reaching out to me directly to voice is concerns, after that avenue had been provided to him through my team, that was unacceptable.
                    The letter was sent over non- secure, unclassified email even though that ship possesses some of the most sophisticated communications and encryption equipment in the Fleet.

                    It was sent outside the chain of command, at the same time the rest of the Navy was fully responding. Worse, the Captain’s actions made his Sailors, their families, and many in the public believe that his letter was the only reason help from our larger Navy family was forthcoming, which was hardly the case.
                    it's pretty clear from the subsequent media that the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt loved their boss, thought well of him for sending the letter, and that there was no loss in morale stemming from the letter. Modly's stated reason for loss of confidence is clearly bullshit. the reason why Modly wanted Crozier's head was because he felt that the media leak made an embarrassment of his leadership.

                    this has been collaborated by subsequent reporting.

                    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...brett-crozier/

                    By Wednesday, Modly told a colleague he was thinking of relieving Crozier and that Trump “wants him fired.” He was advised by several current and former colleagues, reportedly including Gilday, that such a dismissal would be unwise, and that the matter was best left to the military.

                    The situation became more political Wednesday afternoon, when Esper, Gilday and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, attended the daily coronavirus briefing at the White House to join Trump in announcing an oddly timed new anti-drug offensive. The memo about the dire situation aboard the Roosevelt had already surfaced, and Gilday was asked about it in Trump’s presence.

                    Gilday answered that the Navy had made “great progress” and had moved more than 1,000 crew members off the ship in Guam — a number that he said would increase to 2,700 by Friday. As Gilday was explaining these protective measures, Trump interjected: “And not too many people are going to be getting off at various ports anymore. Right?” The briefing moved on...

                    The matter came to a head Thursday. Esper, Milley and Gilday are said to have favored continuing the investigation. But Modly said he wanted to relieve Crozier immediately, and Esper said, “I’ll do what you want.” Gilday argued against the firing but was overruled by the civilians. Baker, the strike group commander, announced the firing later that day.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      actually, we don't. right now the variables are just all over the place, with mortality rates hugely different even across the developed world.

                      I know you're probably using the Worldometer stats, but those are based off the WHO-China Joint mission and the Chinese CDC. those figures aren't worth the paper they're typed on.
                      Chinese numbers have been overtaken by Italian, Spanish, American numbers. Chinese numbers, whether true or not, matter less and less.

                      What is clear, however, that none of the TR infected require extensive medical intervention. No one on the TR crew requires a ventilator as of yet. Crozier may not have known that but he let the fear of one single death dictate his actions.

                      Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      that was the second COA that Crozier proposed, yes.
                      He may or may not be right but he acted way too early and long before his command became combat-ineffective. COVID-19 was a long way away from being out of control. Could Crozier have stopped it? Don't know. Maybe not but he already expressed his own personal inability to effectively contain the outbreak.

                      Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      Modly's response was that Navy was already planning on doing this-- and that Modly had no issue with quarantining the entire ship. that is precisely what is happening right now.
                      So, Crozier was out of the decision making loop concerning his ship before writing this letter? If true, then Fleet Command had already lost confidence in him. If false, it was the shitstorm.

                      Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      Modly's stated rationale for losing confidence in Crozier was NOT because Crozier wanted to quarantine the ship. Modly lost confidence in Crozier because Crozier cc'd a lot of people on a non-secure network, and the subsequent leak supposedly lowered morale among the crew and the crew's families.

                      https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=112537

                      it's pretty clear from the subsequent media that the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt loved their boss, thought well of him for sending the letter, and that there was no loss in morale stemming from the letter. Modly's stated reason for loss of confidence is clearly bullshit. the reason why Modly wanted Crozier's head was because he felt that the media leak made an embarrassment of his leadership.

                      this has been collaborated by subsequent reporting.

                      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...brett-crozier/
                      I agree Modly is an asshole but that does not change the fact Crozier lost his command whether fair or not, A lot of 4 bars are chomping to take his place whether fair or not.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • What is clear, however, that none of the TR infected require extensive medical intervention. No one on the TR crew requires a ventilator as of yet. Crozier may not have known that but he let the fear of one single death dictate his actions.
                        from his standpoint, the number of infected went up from 3 to 100 in less than a week. he was correct in saying that given the tight quarters, almost the entire crew would be open to infection.

                        that's why he asked for instructions with his recommendation-- and it turns out the Navy took his recommendation. that would argue against the fact that "he acted way too early".

                        bottom-line is that according to Modly, had Crozier done nothing else differently but send this direct to his superior or to Modly on a classified network, then Crozier wouldn't have been fired.

                        I agree Modly is an asshole but that does not change the fact Crozier lost his command whether fair or not, A lot of 4 bars are chomping to take his place whether fair or not.
                        sure. life's unfair, i get it, and the Navy's more strict about this than the other Services are (sometimes good, sometimes bad).

                        I understand that Modly has the legitimate right and the power to do what he did.

                        but that doesn't stop me from considering Modly a political puke who crucified an underling because he was afraid of Trump's wrath at the media embarrassment. again, f*ck that guy.
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                          Sir, the moment that COVID-19 was discovered on the ship, the mission was OVER. There was no "mission". The carrier immediately put into Guam, end of story.

                          The problem was the Navy wouldn't allow the crew off the ship, effectively damning every last one of them to be exposed to COVID-19.
                          To be fair to the Captain we have seen what happens when this virus gets onto a cruiser ship and the whole ship gets quarantined; infection spreads rapidly as happened with the cruise ship stuck off Japan. A Captain also has a duty to his crew; they cannot perform their duties when half of them are ill. The Navy should have ordered him to shore when it first broke out on board but Trumps insane concern with numbers - did he not stop a cruise liner docking or something? - forbade it. The Captain did the right thing as a matter of his duty to his crew but payed a political price for it.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                            With a 0.2% fatality rate? Risk well withiin acceptable limits.
                            I would have thought engineers know a little maths; total number of worldwide known cases (and therefore probably incomplete) 1,237,420. Total number of worldwide known deaths from Covid-19 67,260 which makes fatality rate around 5%.

                            Comment


                            • snapper,

                              total number of worldwide known cases (and therefore probably incomplete) 1,237,420. Total number of worldwide known deaths from Covid-19 67,260 which makes fatality rate around 5%.
                              not quite-- that's an apples to oranges comparison, because that includes active cases.

                              the -closed- case ratio is what we should be looking at, because that's the entire cycle of COVID: either you recover or you die in a roughly 14-day cycle.

                              and the rate there is worryingly high: 21% of closed cases end in death.

                              that's why the extremely high infection rates -today- translate to high numbers of death two weeks later. so here in the US, where we're still on the upward slope of infections, means the next 2-4 weeks are going to be very, very bad.
                              Last edited by astralis; 05 Apr 20,, 20:37.
                              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                                I would have thought engineers know a little maths; total number of worldwide known cases (and therefore probably incomplete) 1,237,420. Total number of worldwide known deaths from Covid-19 67,260 which makes fatality rate around 5%.
                                You can't read, can you. The 0.2% is based on the 20-39 year old demographics. Try upgrading your English comprehesion before you try math.

                                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                                and the rate there is worryingly high: 21% of closed cases end in death.
                                Also not quite. The 79-21 ratio is based on the severe cases, ie those cases that relies on hospitalization and does not include those who recovers from home ... and certainly do not include those un-infected which today is numbering at 7+ billion people.
                                Chimo

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