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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #1321
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The rationale for contact tracing in the US

    Contact tracing could help avoid another lockdown. Can it work in the U.S.? | Stat | May 29 2020

    Contact tracing does not need to be perfect to make a serious dent in case counts. If the goal is to keep the number of people getting sick below the point where hospitals are overwhelmed — not to eliminate the virus — not every contact needs to be found and not every person needs to follow recommendations.

    If health officials can identify half of symptomatic cases of Covid-19 (some people don’t show symptoms), and trace 40% of their contacts, “the ensuing reduction in transmission allows the reopening of economic activities while attaining a manageable impact on the health care system,” a preprint of a modeling study found, relying on transmission dynamics in the Boston area.

    If tracing resources are limited, focusing on burgeoning clusters of cases can also be more impactful than taking aim at tendrils of spread, experts say.

    We’re not trying to get rid of Covid-19 altogether — that would be great, but probably unrealistic,” said infectious disease epidemiologist Emily Gurley of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

    “But even if we can’t stop all transmission, it’s still a really important effort to keep case counts low.”
    What is a contact ?

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that in the case of Covid-19, a contact is someone who spent at least 15 minutes within 6 feet of a case, starting two days before that person started feeling sick.
    I find this definition interesting, it means to get infected that 15 mins is the minimum amount of time one requires to be exposed

    https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/...28752516706304

    The why & why not for contact tracing in the US. The way he opens the debate make you think contact tracing will be a fools errand in the US.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Jun 20, at 19:39.

  2. #1322
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    I Cannot Remain Silent
    ADM Mike Mullen (Ret.)
    Seventeenth Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff


    It sickened me yesterday to see security personnel—including members of the National Guard—forcibly and violently clear a path through Lafayette Square to accommodate the president's visit outside St. John's Church. I have to date been reticent to speak out on issues surrounding President Trump's leadership, but we are at an inflection point, and the events of the past few weeks have made it impossible to remain silent.

    Whatever Trump's goal in conducting his visit, he laid bare his disdain for the rights of peaceful protest in this country, gave succor to the leaders of other countries who take comfort in our domestic strife, and risked further politicizing the men and women of our armed forces.

    There was little good in the stunt.

    While no one should ever condone the violence, vandalism, and looting that has exploded across our city streets, neither should anyone lose sight of the larger and deeper concerns about institutional racism that have ignited this rage.

    As a white man, I cannot claim perfect understanding of the fear and anger that African Americans feel today. But as someone who has been around for a while, I know enough—and I’ve seen enough—to understand that those feelings are real and that they are all too painfully founded.

    We must, as citizens, address head-on the issue of police brutality and sustained injustices against the African American community. We must, as citizens, support and defend the right—indeed, the solemn obligation—to peacefully assemble and to be heard. These are not mutually exclusive pursuits.

    And neither of these pursuits will be made easier or safer by an overly aggressive use of our military, active duty or National Guard. The United States has a long and, to be fair, sometimes troubled history of using the armed forces to enforce domestic laws. The issue for us today is not whether this authority exists, but whether it will be wisely administered.

    I remain confident in the professionalism of our men and women in uniform. They will serve with skill and with compassion. They will obey lawful orders. But I am less confident in the soundness of the orders they will be given by this commander in chief, and I am not convinced that the conditions on our streets, as bad as they are, have risen to the level that justifies a heavy reliance on military troops. Certainly, we have not crossed the threshold that would make it appropriate to invoke the provisions of the Insurrection Act.

    Furthermore, I am deeply worried that as they execute their orders, the members of our military will be co-opted for political purposes.

    Even in the midst of the carnage we are witnessing, we must endeavor to see American cities and towns as our homes and our neighborhoods. They are not “battle spaces” to be dominated, and must never become so.

    We must ensure that African Americans—indeed, all Americans—are given the same rights under the Constitution, the same justice under the law, and the same consideration we give to members of our own family. Our fellow citizens are not the enemy, and must never become so.

    Too many foreign and domestic policy choices have become militarized; too many military missions have become politicized.

    This is not the time for stunts. This is the time for leadership.
    _______________

    We have no leadership in this country. Nor will we until Donald Trump and his gang of fellow thugs and thieves are out of the White House permanently.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  3. #1323
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    James Mattis Denounces President Trump, Describes Him as a Threat to the Constitution

    IN UNION THERE IS STRENGTH
    I have watched this week’s unfolding events, angry and appalled. The words “Equal Justice Under Law” are carved in the pediment of the United States Supreme Court. This is precisely what protesters are rightly demanding. It is a wholesome and unifying demand—one that all of us should be able to get behind. We must not be distracted by a small number of lawbreakers. The protests are defined by tens of thousands of people of conscience who are insisting that we live up to our values—our values as people and our values as a nation.

    When I joined the military, some 50 years ago, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. Never did I dream that troops taking that same oath would be ordered under any circumstance to violate the Constitutional rights of their fellow citizens—much less to provide a bizarre photo op for the elected commander-in-chief, with military leadership standing alongside.

    We must reject any thinking of our cities as a “battlespace” that our uniformed military is called upon to “dominate.” At home, we should use our military only when requested to do so, on very rare occasions, by state governors. Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington, D.C., sets up a conflict—a false conflict—between the military and civilian society. It erodes the moral ground that ensures a trusted bond between men and women in uniform and the society they are sworn to protect, and of which they themselves are a part. Keeping public order rests with civilian state and local leaders who best understand their communities and are answerable to them.

    James Madison wrote in Federalist 14 that “America united with a handful of troops, or without a single soldier, exhibits a more forbidding posture to foreign ambition than America disunited, with a hundred thousand veterans ready for combat.” We do not need to militarize our response to protests. We need to unite around a common purpose. And it starts by guaranteeing that all of us are equal before the law.

    Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that “The Nazi slogan for destroying us…was ‘Divide and Conquer.’ Our American answer is ‘In Union there is Strength.’” We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.

    Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.

    We can come through this trying time stronger, and with a renewed sense of purpose and respect for one another. The pandemic has shown us that it is not only our troops who are willing to offer the ultimate sacrifice for the safety of the community. Americans in hospitals, grocery stores, post offices, and elsewhere have put their lives on the line in order to serve their fellow citizens and their country. We know that we are better than the abuse of executive authority that we witnessed in Lafayette Square. We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution. At the same time, we must remember Lincoln’s “better angels,” and listen to them, as we work to unite.

    Only by adopting a new path—which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals—will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad. Link
    ______________

    Thank you General, it's about goddamn time that people of your stature speak up about the national calamity that has befallen us.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  4. #1324
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    I wonder if another Sec of Defense is going to follow him out the door?

  5. #1325
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    I wonder if another Sec of Defense is going to follow him out the door?
    I wouldn't bet against it.

    Only time will tell, but I think Trump is finally, fatally, melting down. He's up against too much right now.

    Even a healthy, functioning human being, in control of their mental faculties, who genuinely cared about this country and its citizens, and surrounded by serious, experienced advistors would be hard-pressed at a time like this.

    Donald Trump is none of those things.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  6. #1326
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    Here in Virginia the two hardest hit areas (Metro Richmond & Northern Virginia) the county & city public health administrations are ALL reporting increases in cases continue to grow daily...some by the hundreds (Fairfax & Prince William).
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

  7. #1327
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    I see we are coming up on our death toll from the 1957 pandemic around H2N2 of 116,000 deaths. Back then the quite equivalent of Dr. Fauci was Dr. Maurice Hilleman.

    For those who never heard:https://www.merck.com/about/featured...l#chapterEight

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