Page 82 of 92 FirstFirst ... 73747576777879808182838485868788899091 ... LastLast
Results 1,216 to 1,230 of 1380

Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #1216
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    6,518
    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    We have that now, although on a less serious level.

    Green Zone => regular state
    Yellow Zone => warning state, increase testing
    Red Zone => lockdown re-activated

    Zones are political-district-based, i.e. full political entities with about 100,000-500,000 people each with no further subdivision.

    The border line between Green and Yellow is 35 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days, between Yellow and Red it's 50 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days. The numbers on these border lines have to be seen in the context of the pandemic at its height spawning around 200-250 new infections per 100,000 citizens per week (which is where the US is now), and that that scheme was enacted when we fell behind the curve peak and went to around 25 average per 100k per week.
    India did that since the start of May, IIRC, the color coding, and here too it is district wise. I am not sure about the infection numbers needed for orange and red zones, although green zones mean no present infection. The best bet is orange/red zones depend upon infection numbers that the state governments think could be controlled or has to be contained.

    Do remember, we neither have the means (money-wise), nor the health infrastructure needed to test a billion+ people and not go bankrupt of some sort. Lockdown/quarantine is what has worked for us, and will continue until the spread of Covid-19 is contained.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I'm not the one in charge. All I can point to is that this is not the worst case scenario and we still have options.

    Don't know but it should be discussed instead of a blanket rejection. Suggestions of 3000 American dead per day is the price needed to open the economy. If that scares you enough to stay home, then stay home. If the thought of losing your home scares you more, then go find work. It is as simple as that. Either way, it is not painless. You might lose your home or your life. There are huge risks either way.
    Agree.
    Last edited by Oracle; 20 May 20, at 10:15.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  2. #1217
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Aug 08
    Location
    UK/Europe
    Posts
    5,656
    More valuable than an immunity to a virus would be a 'herd immunity' to Trumps lies.

  3. #1218
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    11,264
    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    We have that now, although on a less serious level.

    Green Zone => regular state
    Yellow Zone => warning state, increase testing
    Red Zone => lockdown re-activated

    Zones are political-district-based, i.e. full political entities with about 100,000-500,000 people each with no further subdivision.

    The border line between Green and Yellow is 35 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days, between Yellow and Red it's 50 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days. The numbers on these border lines have to be seen in the context of the pandemic at its height spawning around 200-250 new infections per 100,000 citizens per week (which is where the US is now), and that that scheme was enacted when we fell behind the curve peak and went to around 25 average per 100k per week.
    The way ours work is as a function of incidence of cases, doubling rate, extent of testing and surveillance feedback to classify the districts.

    A district will be considered Green, if there are no confirmed cases so far or there are no reported cases in the last 21 days in the district.

    Orange means few cases and Red means more cases. No figures mentioned. At the discretion of the local administration.

    What's happening of late in cities is contained ward or not. Red or not. Allows them to go more granular and close residences at the building level. A cluster happens in an area just that area gets closed.

    In my city just one case is enough to get the ward (city council administrative unit) contained for up to a month to do further testing. If more cases are found they delay the re-opening by a few more days. So far three quarters of the city have yet to report even one case. Some wards mostly where the workers live have many cases.

  4. #1219
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    14,272
    But there is burn out.
    it is not that deadly. burn out means it kills so fast that it doesn't have enough time to spread, like ebola.

    Or you can use quarrantine.
    for the US, that is not legally practicable. you can't quarantine entire states; that's why there was no real legal challenge to New Yorkers fleeing NYC (and spreading COVID). same thing with the anti-lockdown protesters (whom also spread COVID).

    This is the worst. Lessons are learned. Health workers will be screened left, right, and centre. The most vulnerable will be protected up the ying yang.
    in the First World, yes.

    that's not going to happen in the Third World or even the Second World. you can't socially distance in slums. look at Brazil -- +16,500 cases over one day (yesterday), and in a population 60% of the size of the US.

    what's the state of healthcare facilities in Brazil? some states there have -already- declared medical collapse.

    and Brazil is significantly better than Africa.

    And as I predicted, Africa neither cares nor noticed ... for a number of reasons.

    1) Shorter life spans mean that that they lack a real vulnerable population
    2) Central Africa is too busy getting ready to kill each other to care ... again. The most brutal and deadly war since WWII 2.7 to 5.4 million dead and that's not counting the Rwandan Genocide. Anything about Uganda closing their borders vis-a-vi COVID-19 is hogwash. They've already closed it due to rebel infiltration from Rwanda and getting ready to fight again.
    3) Only Northern Africa and South Africa really have the infrastruture to monitor COVID-19. No one else is putting money into anything.
    4) They went through ebola. This is nothing.
    this assessment is way too early. by the end of the year, I think we're all going to be watching a real different show. for areas on the edge already, this will push them over.

    and you're right: COVID itself may not be the deadliest effect. it may cause second and third-order effects such as government collapse, because any shutdown (either government or virus initiated) will cause economies and budgets to go into a tailspin. we can stomach this in the West. I doubt some of those other countries, such as oil-dependent Nigeria, can.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #1220
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    11,264
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    for the US, that is not legally practicable. you can't quarantine entire states; that's why there was no real legal challenge to New Yorkers fleeing NYC (and spreading COVID). same thing with the anti-lockdown protesters (whom also spread COVID).
    What about individual people though. People arriving in the country in March were told to self-isolate but there was no follow up or any legal requirement that they remain quarantined. So they went out and mixed with people.

    I was also surprised at the tone of the article that discussed contact tracing in the US. There is no legal power available to enforce it at all it seems.

  6. #1221
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    6,518
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The way ours work is as a function of incidence of cases, doubling rate, extent of testing and surveillance feedback to classify the districts.

    A district will be considered Green, if there are no confirmed cases so far or there are no reported cases in the last 21 days in the district.

    Orange means few cases and Red means more cases. No figures mentioned. At the discretion of the local administration.

    What's happening of late in cities is contained ward or not. Red or not. Allows them to go more granular and close residences at the building level. A cluster happens in an area just that area gets closed.

    In my city just one case is enough to get the ward (city council administrative unit) contained for up to a month to do further testing. If more cases are found they delay the re-opening by a few more days. So far three quarters of the city have yet to report even one case. Some wards mostly where the workers live have many cases.
    You explained it better. Thank you.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  7. #1222
    Global Moderator
    Military Professional
    Defense Professional
    Albany Rifles's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Apr 07
    Location
    Prince George, VA
    Posts
    9,096
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Your state isn't showing an increase in cases. Moving average is trending down.

    Attachment 48633




    Attachment 48634

    Positivity is reducing as a result of that increased testing.

    But postivity in VA is twice that of FL so those cases are going to continue until your positivity rate drops further.

    Check the testing tab on the website. It took about a month to drop from 22% to 15% so that's how long you can expect to halve it with increased testing and get to FL levels.



    What i can't get my head around is how this disease spread so fast in the US ?

    Mobility. The faster it is for people to get around the more the prevalence.
    You are ignoring that big gray area....where testing results are not not....and those results are expected to go up. Local news reports this AM confirmed. It's all a result of increase in testing. What also has to be factored in is the SW part of the state had little to no outbreaks and their tests results are figured into that average. But if you look at Tidewater, Richmond Metro & NOVA...where everyone lives...the trend line continues to climb.

    And why it spread....because the Federal government refused to take it seriously early enough. Fox News was saying all through JAN-FEB-Early MAR it was all a hoax...just a bad cold. I traveled the weekend 12-15 MAR 20 by plane. No one was taking precautions....my wife and I did. We wore masks and wiped down everything. That is how this spread so fast. It wasn't until the following week that the Federal government changed its tune and things changed.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

  8. #1223
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,970
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    it is not that deadly. burn out means it kills so fast that it doesn't have enough time to spread, like ebola.
    It also means that there is no one else within reach to infect, ie quarrantine.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    for the US, that is not legally practicable. you can't quarantine entire states; that's why there was no real legal challenge to New Yorkers fleeing NYC (and spreading COVID). same thing with the anti-lockdown protesters (whom also spread COVID).
    An entire state? That's impractical. The best we can do is a city, ie a seige. But even then, it is not necessary. You can just quarrantine neighbourhoods with outbreaks. This was the practice with the ebola outbreak in Congo cities.

    As for legal status, large scale quarrantine precedents was set in the 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    in the First World, yes.

    that's not going to happen in the Third World or even the Second World. you can't socially distance in slums. look at Brazil -- +16,500 cases over one day (yesterday), and in a population 60% of the size of the US.
    Ok, what is the 2nd World? Warsaw Pact is gone.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    this assessment is way too early. by the end of the year, I think we're all going to be watching a real different show. for areas on the edge already, this will push them over.

    and you're right: COVID itself may not be the deadliest effect. it may cause second and third-order effects such as government collapse, because any shutdown (either government or virus initiated) will cause economies and budgets to go into a tailspin. we can stomach this in the West. I doubt some of those other countries, such as oil-dependent Nigeria, can.
    Yeah, they ain't going to notice. Between rockets and COVID-19, they're going to choose rockets. No one is stopping the fighting anywhere to control COVID-19

  9. #1224
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    4,203
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post

    that's not going to happen in the Third World or even the Second World. you can't socially distance in slums. look at Brazil -- +16,500 cases over one day (yesterday), and in a population 60% of the size of the US.

    what's the state of healthcare facilities in Brazil? some states there have -already- declared medical collapse.

    and Brazil is significantly better than Africa.
    Have been watching Brazil and they are going down the tubes. May even surpass Russia for #2 on the world list in 2 weeks. Brazil is definitely Third World but in being non-alinged, the old definition, and economically, the new definition. Second World made me pause a moment and go wait a minute...

  10. #1225
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    4,593
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    An entire state? That's impractical.
    Italy factually quarantined a contiguous region of 10 million people. Most US states are smaller than that, population-wise.

  11. #1226
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    14,272
    yeah, i know, when even our board's resident cold war dinosaur is telling me to get with the times...:-)

    Brazil's worse than Russia in this regards. Russia is at least doing testing, even if they are fudging the results and pushing doctors out of windows.

    Brazil's barely done any testing, and their numbers are -still- insane.

    of course Bolsonaro's response to all of this has been to implicitly support the idea of a military takeover. i guess that's one leader that's worse than Trump in this crisis.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  12. #1227
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    14,272
    Italy factually quarantined a contiguous region of 10 million people. Most US states are smaller than that, population-wise.
    yes, but that simply won't work in the US, either technically or legally.

    far too much leakage given the low population densities outside of the urban areas, anyways, even if it wasn't for the fact that we have a considerable segment of the populace whom think voluntarily wearing masks is an affront to freedom.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #1228
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    12,063
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    2009 H1N1 Pandemic, 66 million Americans infected. We, as in you and me, have been through worst.
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    No one living has any experience from this. This is all too new.
    Just out of curiosity, how do you square the former statement with the latter?
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  14. #1229
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,970
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how do you square the former statement with the latter?
    We didn't do social distancing and lockdowns back then. The economy was not a factor. Everyone went about their jobs.

  15. #1230
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    12,063
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    To date only 2.5k Swedes have died. We can trust their data.
    If you go to the website for the Swedish Public Health Agency on COVID-19, they're keeping track of statistics on this site:

    Covid-19 – statistik med diagram och kartor - Ingång för Chrome, Edge, Safari, Firefox mfl.

    Today you threw out a figure of "2.5k" and tell us we can "trust their data".

    That's not their data. Their figure is 3831 deaths officially attributed to COVID-19. Why are you telling us to "trust their data" with a false figure?
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 3 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Iranian Tanker Wars 2019
    By troung in forum The Iranian Question
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 21 Sep 19,, 15:59
  2. America’s Imperial Economy
    By andrew in forum American Politics & Economy
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11 Nov 09,, 19:38
  3. Economy of Latin America
    By xinhui in forum International Economy
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 17 Jan 09,, 00:55
  4. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 26 Oct 06,, 13:48
  5. The negative return economy: a discourse on America's black budget
    By SolveEtCoagula in forum World Affairs Board Pub
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 26 Aug 06,, 18:19

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •