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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #1201
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    DE, by the time herd immunity is achieved in US, death will extract a huge price. I am not even sure if herd immunity can be achieved in case of Covid-19, as I've read news of infected people, getting cured, and getting re-infected. Forget herd immunity for now, think of how Covid-19 has ruined businesses, people' lives, everything that we know of even with, say for e.g., 2% infection rate. For herd immunity to be achieved, we have to be mentally ready with the high number of deaths that it'll bring about wrecking the medical infrastructure, the world economy as we know today, food riots, civil wars, and maybe a global catastrophe that I don't want to imagine typing this from my hall.

    We all might be in for some luck next year -> Moderna says Covid-19 vaccine shows promise in early trials, excites markets
    You said we have to learn to live with this virus. So think next 18 -24 months. Not last two months.

    What do we do ? How long do we remain locked down ?

    It's extended to the end May now. Another month ? three more

    Odds of a vaccine turning up are good as labs worldwde are racing to get there. But assume it isn't here as fast as we would like. Gangandeep mentioned Moderna in a talk two months back. There is also the Oxford group that is slightly ahead.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 May 20, at 19:07.

  2. #1202
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The point is to reach that, you have to have infection - not zero infection. The more you have, not less, the closer you are to herd immunity.
    Either infections or vaccinations. But either you're there or you're not. Herd immunity, for example, is conferred against measles, mumps, and rubella (91.7% vaccination rate) and polio (92.7%).

    I'm just a layman on the subject, but I'd posit that the longer the time there is that a large number of people are experiencing infections, the more opportunities there are for SARS-CoV2 to mutate into novel strains, that immunity to a prior strain might confer no protection against. The historical record provides examples of different diseases going both ways with regards to higher and lower virulence.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 19 May 20, at 19:25.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Either infections or vaccinations. But either you're there or you're not. Herd immunity, for example, is conferred against measles, mumps, and rubella (91.7% vaccination rate) and polio (92.7%).
    We're talking semantics here. I really doubt there is much difference between 60% and 67% infected/vaccinated (worldometer sets 67% as COVID-19 herd immunity).

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I'm just a layman on the subject, but I'd posit that the longer the time there is that a large number of people are experiencing infections, the more opportunities there are for SARS-CoV2 to mutate into novel strains, that immunity to a prior strain might confer no protection against. The historical record provides examples of different diseases going both ways with regards to higher and lower virulence.
    So we do what we've always done. Quarrantine the sick (or the healthy from the sick whichever is the smaller number) and let the virus burn itself out,
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 19 May 20, at 19:46.

  4. #1204
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Immunity may not really be a thing....

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22V1K1
    The Swiss found the same in their studies with children as did Germans in cluster city Gangelt. They suspected the school was the source of the infection and to their surprise found only few children tested positive and not in proportion with adults. Danes have opened their schools beginning this month and so far things seem ok. Don't think the Swedes ever closed theirs.

    John Edmunds, a member of Britain’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), told the same science committee hearing that it was striking how children did not seem to play much of a role in spreading the novel coronavirus.

    It is unusual that children don’t seem to play much of a role in transmission because for most respiratory viruses and bacteria they play a central role, but in this they don’t seem to,” said Edmunds, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

    “There is only one documented outbreak associated with a school - which is amazing; you would normally expect most of the outbreaks to be associated with schools but yet in global literature there is only one documented study,” Edmunds said, citing a study of a French secondary school. “It is pretty remarkable.”
    That is the funny thing about this disease and kids, because most would not believe it.

    Kids are usually the best germ spreaders around : )

    He said that, more broadly, the evidence of transmission from asymptomatic individuals - which may be about 30 or 40 percent of adults - was not clear.

    But he added there was potentially bad news - that human immunity to the novel coronavirus may not last long.

    “Antibody responses decline over time from survivors of SARS so after a couple of years their antibodies have declined quite significantly,” Edmunds said, referring to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which is also caused by a type of coronavirus.

    “We can also see from other coronaviruses - the ones that cause coughs and colds - that individuals again do seem to not have particularly long-term immunity to many of those viruses and so allowing them to be infected later.

    “So that’s potentially bad news for us: that immunity may not last that long against this virus,” he said.
    There you go its temporary which is not the same as saying no immunity just because we don't know how long for.

    What he does not mention is whether the re-infection after is more or less serious than the first. German researcher whose interview i linked to in the SARS thread thinks less since the body was already exposed : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 May 20, at 09:11.

  5. #1205
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    The exception is my state of Virginia. Why do we continue to climb?
    Your state isn't showing an increase in cases. Moving average is trending down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    There has continued to be hot spots in NOVA and in Tidewater. Additionally, we are seeing a rise in case because more and more testing capacity is coming on line.
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    Positivity is reducing as a result of that increased testing.

    But postivity in VA is twice that of FL so those cases are going to continue until your positivity rate drops further.

    Check the testing tab on the website. It took about a month to drop from 22% to 15% so that's how long you can expect to halve it with increased testing and get to FL levels.

    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    It was woefully short...why? Because Virginia had been tied in to the Federal government and was dependent on it because of the large integration of the of the Federal workforce in our population. Turns out that was a fools errand as the federal government assistant fell through. Why is that? Because we have a governor who is a Democrat....same with NC.

    https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-...S/dgkvlgkrkpb/
    What i can't get my head around is how this disease spread so fast in the US ?

    Mobility. The faster it is for people to get around the more the prevalence.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 May 20, at 21:14.

  6. #1206
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    there is no herd immunity with the numbers we're talking about at this point.

    we're -nowhere close-.

    i've used the NYC example before; the most densely populated area and the worst outbreak, and it's still only 20% infected, total.

    we need 80-90% for herd immunity to work.

    Spain is another hard-hit country; one of the worst in Europe, in fact-- and significantly worse per capita than the US, by the way.

    estimated total infected? 5%.

    herd immunity in any sort of practical timescale means medical collapse.

    if there is no vaccine, which is a distinct possibility, or even only a partially effective vaccine, then the only way to realistically make this work without collapsing the medical system is a truly massive program of contact tracing, which will STILL result in a gruesome number of deaths but will keep the rate of death at a "medically controllable" level for years, until a vaccine finally works or we reach herd immunity.

    people, this is just the first round, and it won't be the worst.

    you think the US has it bad? as I predicted, it's going haywire in Brazil; Russia as well. India is screwed; there's just no realistic way around it, even with the best policy choices. you -can't- lockdown or effectively socially distance in India.

    and whatever applies to India applies to Africa, even worse. good god, think about Lagos or Addis Ababa.

    this will make what the US went through-- is going through-- look like a walk in the park.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  7. #1207
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    If i was to look for VA & FL in my country, these two would fit

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    That state is C19 central in the country and who knows of the world. The state that keeps on giving 33% ff daily cases.

    Positivity rates nearing VA.

    No good reason for prevalence to be increasing during a lockdown except they are being lax with restrictions as well as containment.

    Bad contact tracing. Clueless

    This state could be the NY of India, who knows maybe it might reach those levels one day.

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    And that is FL, numbers all over the place, not getting the testing right but seems to be coming down.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 May 20, at 21:35.

  8. #1208
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    there is no herd immunity with the numbers we're talking about at this point.

    we're -nowhere close-.
    But there is burn out.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    we need 80-90% for herd immunity to work.
    Or you can use quarrantine.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    people, this is just the first round, and it won't be the worst.
    This is the worst. Lessons are learned. Health workers will be screened left, right, and centre. The most vulnerable will be protected up the ying yang.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    and whatever applies to India applies to Africa, even worse. good god, think about Lagos or Addis Ababa.

    this will make what the US went through-- is going through-- look like a walk in the park.
    And as I predicted, Africa neither cares nor noticed ... for a number of reasons.

    1) Shorter life spans mean that that they lack a real vulnerable population
    2) Central Africa is too busy getting ready to kill each other to care ... again. The most brutal and deadly war since WWII 2.7 to 5.4 million dead and that's not counting the Rwandan Genocide. Anything about Uganda closing their borders vis-a-vi COVID-19 is hogwash. They've already closed it due to rebel infiltration from Rwanda and getting ready to fight again.
    3) Only Northern Africa and South Africa really have the infrastruture to monitor COVID-19. No one else is putting money into anything.
    4) They went through ebola. This is nothing.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 20 May 20, at 03:34.

  9. #1209
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You said we have to learn to live with this virus. So think next 18 -24 months. Not last two months.

    What do we do ? How long do we remain locked down ?

    It's extended to the end May now. Another month ? three more

    Odds of a vaccine turning up are good as labs worldwde are racing to get there. But assume it isn't here as fast as we would like. Gangandeep mentioned Moderna in a talk two months back. There is also the Oxford group that is slightly ahead.
    Not only do we have to live with the virus, but also deaths. How many deaths are acceptable, no one knows. Road fatalities in India are the highest in the world. We live with that without battling our eyelids. But should we remain under a continuous lockdown? I don't think so. People are still dying, but keeping locked down the whole country is wrecking up the economy.

    I'd suggest some measures.

    #1. Divide areas into 3 zones. Red, Orange, Green. Red zone is the area with maximum infections. Enforce quarantine strictly in red zone, nothing goes in, nothing comes out. Use the Army, if needed to enforce. Orange zone is area with some infections, open it up with restrictions. Let people in green zones resume normal life and economic activities. This is what India is doing successfully.

    #2. Enforce strict quarantine for kids under 10 and above 60, in all zones. That is, they do not go out unless very necessary, something like an emergency medical condition.

    #3. Accept that we have to live with a certain number of deaths. Is it nice? No. Is it working? Yes, or maybe time will tell.

    #4. Keep schools, religious congregations, malls, cinema halls - the kind where people gather en masse, closed in all zones till the virus is contained to an acceptable degree.

    #5. Accept that what the Colonel says is from experience. He doesn't mean any harm. Social distancing & quarantine is the best policy to tackle the virus.
    Last edited by Oracle; 20 May 20, at 02:33.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  10. #1210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #5. Accept that what the Colonel says is from experience. He doesn't mean any harm. Social distancing & quarantine is the best policy to tackle the virus.
    No one living has any experience from this. This is all too new. The only thing we can draw upon are historic experiences such as 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu and the ebola experiences from Africa. Thus far, we've avoided those death tolls but to no small amount of luck that most infected would be ok as well as social distancing and lock downs. No one wants to go through Africa's ebola experiences of quarrantine when even any health worker signed a death warrant just to help the sick ... or worst, culling the sick.

    But we pay the price in money instead of lives.

  11. #1211
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    No one living has any experience from this. This is all too new. The only thing we can draw upon are historic experiences such as 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu and the ebola experiences from Africa. Thus far, we've avoided those death tolls but to no small amount of luck that most infected would be ok as well as social distancing and lock downs. No one wants to go through Africa's ebola experiences of quarrantine when even any health worker signed a death warrant just to help the sick ... or worst, culling the sick.

    But we pay the price in money instead of lives.
    I am saying your views about quarantine and such are pragmatic.

    How much do we pay trying to save lives? If we live under a continuous lockdown, more lives will be lost due to a recession/people losing jobs, than Covid-19 will kill. A recession will affect entire families, communities, states, countries. No quarantine can help fix the economy. We need to listen to what doctors/epidemiologists say and recommend, use our common sense while out of home, and restart our respective economic engines. That is the only way to tackle the virus without wrecking the state, while praying some vaccine might see the light of day in 2021.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I am saying your views about quarantine and such are pragmatic.
    I'm not the one in charge. All I can point to is that this is not the worst case scenario and we still have options.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    How much do we pay trying to save lives?
    Don't know but it should be discussed instead of a blanket rejection. Suggestions of 3000 American dead per day is the price needed to open the economy. If that scares you enough to stay home, then stay home. If the thought of losing your home scares you more, then go find work. It is as simple as that. Either way, it is not painless. You might lose your home or your life. There are huge risks either way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    “There is only one documented outbreak associated with a school - which is amazing; you would normally expect most of the outbreaks to be associated with schools but yet in global literature there is only one documented study,” Edmunds said, citing a study of a French secondary school. “It is pretty remarkable.”
    Actually the lack of studies is more an effect of a lack of symptomatic runs of Covid-19 in children, as well as of the measure that schools were basically closed down first in every lockdown. Every single school around me already had at least one case weeks before schools were closed down, and every single one quarantined dozens of children immediately.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #1. Divide areas into 3 zones. Red, Orange, Green. Red zone is the area with maximum infections. Enforce quarantine strictly in red zone, nothing goes in, nothing comes out. Use the Army, if needed to enforce. Orange zone is area with some infections, open it up with restrictions. Let people in green zones resume normal life and economic activities. This is what India is doing successfully.
    We have that now, although on a less serious level.

    Green Zone => regular state
    Yellow Zone => warning state, increase testing
    Red Zone => lockdown re-activated

    Zones are political-district-based, i.e. full political entities with about 100,000-500,000 people each with no further subdivision.

    The border line between Green and Yellow is 35 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days, between Yellow and Red it's 50 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days. The numbers on these border lines have to be seen in the context of the pandemic at its height spawning around 200-250 new infections per 100,000 citizens per week (which is where the US is now), and that that scheme was enacted when we fell behind the curve peak and went to around 25 average per 100k per week.

  15. #1215
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    there is no herd immunity with the numbers we're talking about at this point.

    we're -nowhere close-.

    i've used the NYC example before; the most densely populated area and the worst outbreak, and it's still only 20% infected, total.

    we need 80-90% for herd immunity to work.

    Spain is another hard-hit country; one of the worst in Europe, in fact-- and significantly worse per capita than the US, by the way.

    estimated total infected? 5%.

    herd immunity in any sort of practical timescale means medical collapse.

    people, this is just the first round, and it won't be the worst.
    ok, so tell me how bad the second wave will be, if there is to be one ?

    Will it be worse than the first for those that had a hard first wave.

    Ask the same question to those that managed the first wave better.

    What will their second wave be like.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    if there is no vaccine, which is a distinct possibility, or even only a partially effective vaccine, then the only way to realistically make this work without collapsing the medical system is a truly massive program of contact tracing, which will STILL result in a gruesome number of deaths but will keep the rate of death at a "medically controllable" level for years, until a vaccine finally works or we reach herd immunity.
    So its essentially a mangement problem. Govts know how to do that.

    Manage problems because many are intractable to the point of being unsolvable.

    Science is a bit player until a vaccine comes out.

    The difficult part is the trial & error we will have to go through.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    you think the US has it bad? as I predicted, it's going haywire in Brazil; Russia as well. India is screwed; there's just no realistic way around it, even with the best policy choices. you -can't- lockdown or effectively socially distance in India.

    and whatever applies to India applies to Africa, even worse. good god, think about Lagos or Addis Ababa.

    this will make what the US went through-- is going through-- look like a walk in the park.
    The mistake you are making is looking at this at a country level and then compunding it by going to the continent level. Only the media gains by looking at it from so high. They get to come up with scary headlines. Anytime some one talks at the country level, they ain't looked at the data.

    Go granular. Look at how individual states are doing. US has 50. India has 29.

    This is what India looks like.

    You can see some states doing better, not entirely clear why and some that are not due to mismanagement which can be fixed with best practices. Social distance is an issue only in slum areas. Contact tracing is an issue in some cities as it was left to the city administration to sort out. It's better in rural areas. We've not peaked yet and nobody knows when it will happen. I'm not seeing any reasons for alarm as yet. Recovery rates avg around 30% because the median age of infected is young.

    The testing numbers might seem low but in states where the positivty graphs are going down the test numbers are adequate. As is containment policies and contact tracing. Need all three, containment, contact tracing & testing to manage this disease. if one is missing need more of the other two, if two are missing then need a lot of one.

    I really wish i could also get positivity graphs presented in that format for all US states, at a glance you see a lot in conjunction with case graphs.

    The idea of looking at US data is to desensitise. Stare at the data long enough and it ceases to be as scary.

    Numbers rise in hotspots. Positivity values for an entire state are averages and the hotspots will skew the value for the entire state. If the values are high they have a few hotspots with spread.

    If 19k out of 20k deaths came out of NYC how is the rest of NY doing. Not so bad from a health pov.

    The same applies to Africa. That entire continent has less people than China or India. Which tells me density is low. They spend more time outdoors. They are young with a median age of 19 which means recovery will be good. Where i can see deaths rising in Africa is due to the change of focus away from killers like TB & malaria towards C19. They don't get across as fast as in the US or Europe. Mobility is a big factor in how fast this disease can spread.

    Every time you feel a testing rant coming on consider that because people can move about so fast in the US, the disease spread at a rapid rate that your govt just could not keep up. It had to work with what it had and compete with the rest of the world for essential supplies. It means positivity rates remain high for longer or until testing overtakes infection rates. That is better than infection outstripping testing which only happened in the initial stages.

    Didn't we all get told the same stories, 2 mil Americans will die, tens of millions in India. 100k out of 10 million Swedes will die. To date only 2.5k Swedes have died. We can trust their data. They never shut down entire swathes of their economy.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 May 20, at 10:39.

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