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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #1186
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    We’ve had this conversation before.
    Did someone conclusively (dis)prove that people who have (had) COVID-19 can(not) be reinfected?
    Until and unless that basic question is fully answered, there can be no herd immunity.
    As far as immunity goes, there is nothing to show people do not have immunity, the question is how long for.

    If its anything like other corona virus then the immunity is temporary. One or two years.

    People passing as negative and then turning positive is being put down to lack of resolution of the test kits.

  2. #1187
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You're further along that path than other countries.

    The Swedes make it clear that the by product of their strategy is herd immunity not the goal.
    First, herd immunity is when a large enough percentage of a population is immune to a disease, that spread stops. Besides a few cases here or there, there's so few left people left to infect that a case can't spread any further. No other measures being necessary. No social distancing, no work/school/business closures, no constant handwashing/sanitizing, no face masks, no measures or restrictions at all.

    There's no such thing as having some herd immunity, or having more or less. Either there's herd immunity, or there isn't. Based on what basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to be, it's estimated that 50 to upward of 70% of the population needs to be immune before herd immunity is attained.

    The United States is likely in the lower single digits as far the percentage of the population that has been infected. Nowhere near having reached herd immunity.

    1 out of every 300 New Yorkers have died in the last three or so months from COVID-19. Assuming a 20% infection rate based on antibody tests, that's around a 1.5% mortality rate. If herd immunity were reached through immunity conferred by infection alone, perhaps we'll have achieved herd immunity by the time 3 to 5 million Americans have died.

    Second, it's very likely that most western European countries have had more cases per capita than the United States. Hence, if infection with COVID-19 confers immunity, there's a higher percentage of immunity there than there is here. The US is not "further along that path".

    Third, it's not clear yet what what level of immunity infection confers, how potent that immunity might be, or how long it lasts. It's premature to make any assumptions on the matter.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 19 May 20, at 09:00.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  3. #1188
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    ^agree with everything you said there. I'm thinking of this from the pov no vaccine comes along or any effective treatment in the short to medium term.

    Where do we all stand in that case ?

    Are countries that have borne the brunt of this disease further along the curve.

    Sweden seems to be faring better today than it was two weeks ago.

    1 out of every 300 New Yorkers have died in the last three or so months from COVID-19. Assuming a 20% infection rate based on antibody tests, that's around a 1.5% mortality rate. If herd immunity were reached through immunity conferred by infection alone, perhaps we'll have achieved herd immunity by the time 3 to 5 million Americans have died.
    If 20% of New yorkers have developed anti-bodies then does it mean that is over 1.5 million that cannot be infected or infect any one in NYC ?

    Then it is better than quarantine.

    What is the status of this 20% ? are they considered asymptomatic infected or people that fought the disease off.

    How infectious are these asymptomatic people ? are they as infectious as sympotmatic. I doubt it as the viral load they have is less.

    It does not mean they cannot infect others but whether the virulence suffered by others as a consequence is the same isn't clear as yet.


    First, herd immunity is when a large enough percentage of a population is immune to a disease, that spread stops. Besides a few cases here or there, there's so few left people left to infect that a case can't spread any further. No other measures being necessary. No social distancing, no work/school/business closures, no constant handwashing/sanitizing, no face masks, no measures or restrictions at all.
    Herd immunity is a charged term, i don't know of another to convey what i want to say here.

    If there are fewer spreaders or less effective spreaders then the virus runs its course sooner isn't it.

    Meaning infection rates will be slower in longer duration hotspots compared to other areas once lockdowns unwind.

    You may see momentary spikes but the overall trend will be downward with time.


    Third, it's not clear yet what what level of immunity infection confers, how potent that immunity might be, or how long it lasts. It's premature to make any assumptions on the matter.
    Premature perhaps but why entirely rule out the idea of immunity however short the duration.

    You do understand that i'm hypothesizing here, right : )

    This idea that what the US went through is normal is something i've been ruminating on for some time now and wanted to put it out there.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 May 20, at 13:03.

  4. #1189
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    DE, by the time herd immunity is achieved in US, death will extract a huge price. I am not even sure if herd immunity can be achieved in case of Covid-19, as I've read news of infected people, getting cured, and getting re-infected. Forget herd immunity for now, think of how Covid-19 has ruined businesses, people' lives, everything that we know of even with, say for e.g., 2% infection rate. For herd immunity to be achieved, we have to be mentally ready with the high number of deaths that it'll bring about wrecking the medical infrastructure, the world economy as we know today, food riots, civil wars, and maybe a global catastrophe that I don't want to imagine typing this from my hall.

    We all might be in for some luck next year -> Moderna says Covid-19 vaccine shows promise in early trials, excites markets
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  5. #1190
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    We’ve had this conversation before.
    Did someone conclusively (dis)prove that people who have (had) COVID-19 can(not) be reinfected?
    Until and unless that basic question is fully answered, there can be no herd immunity.
    If that is to be the case then open up the entire economy and stop all lock downs. There is no point. All everyone is then doing is delaying the inevitable.

    However, even Dr Fauci stated that he will be very surprised that there is immediate re-infection. It's not impossible but it would tear apart everything we know about viruses.

  6. #1191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    There's no such thing as having some herd immunity, or having more or less. Either there's herd immunity, or there isn't. Based on what basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to be, it's estimated that 50 to upward of 70% of the population needs to be immune before herd immunity is attained.
    That is false. As the number of infected grows, the RATE of spread SLOWS. There is only a certain number of uninfected left and if they are surrounded by those who have recovered, then the rate slows down even further.

    COVD-19 would have a field day say in Australia post lockdown as compared to NYC post lockdown.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    The United States is likely in the lower single digits as far the percentage of the population that has been infected. Nowhere near having reached herd immunity.

    1 out of every 300 New Yorkers have died in the last three or so months from COVID-19. Assuming a 20% infection rate based on antibody tests, that's around a 1.5% mortality rate. If herd immunity were reached through immunity conferred by infection alone, perhaps we'll have achieved herd immunity by the time 3 to 5 million Americans have died.
    You're assuming the US is one big herd. It isn't. It's 50 herds. Arizona would have an easier time with herd immunity than NY.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Third, it's not clear yet what what level of immunity infection confers, how potent that immunity might be, or how long it lasts. It's premature to make any assumptions on the matter.
    No, it is not. In fact, it is VITAL that we do make assumptions, We need to open up the economy. We CANNOT wait for a year to determine how long immunity lasts (you test every month for re-infection for a large population) which is why I think it is entirely stupid for the WHO to strongly recommend that those recovered still self isolate because they have no evidence that they cannot be re-infected. In a perfect world, we would lock down for an entire year and living off of government dole but that is not going to happen.

    At a certain point, cabin fever would be an epidemic of its own.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 19 May 20, at 18:02.

  7. #1192
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    If that is to be the case then open up the entire economy and stop all lock downs. There is no point. All everyone is then doing is delaying the inevitable.

    However, even Dr Fauci stated that he will be very surprised that there is immediate re-infection. It's not impossible but it would tear apart everything we know about viruses.
    Delaying the inevitable ... the Bee Gees had a song about that, didn't they?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY

    Sorry, Grandma.
    I know you wanted to live to see little Suzi graduate, but we need to get the economy moving again.
    So, we're throwing you and all the old retired folks under the bus, just because keeping you alive is, um, "inconvenient," shall we say.
    Nothing personal, you understand.
    It's just bidness.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  8. #1193
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    Immunity may not really be a thing....

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22V1K1
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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  9. #1194
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Not my post

    This guy really has a problem with fair elections, and this is a scary story less than six months out.

    ” Georgia Republicans cancel election for state Supreme Court, meaning governor can appoint a Republican

    Republicans will control a seat on the state Supreme Court for an extra two years.

    The state of Georgia was supposed to hold an election Tuesday to fill a seat on the state Supreme Court. Justice Keith Blackwell, a Republican whose six-year term expires on the last day of this year, did not plan to run for reelection. The election, between former Democratic Rep. John Barrow and former Republican state lawmaker Beth Beskin, would determine who would fill Blackwell’s seat.

    But then something weird happened: Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and the state’s Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, canceled Tuesday’s election. Instead, Kemp will appoint Blackwell’s successor, and that successor will serve for at least two years — ensuring the seat will remain in Republican hands.”

    https://www.vox.com/2020/5/19/212623...kemp-blackwell
    If this is true, it represents a new GOPer low.
    Anyone care to defend this kind of thing?
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  10. #1195
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    That is false. As the number of infected grows, the RATE of spread SLOWS. There is only a certain number of uninfected left and if they are surrounded by those who have recovered, then the rate slows down even further.
    The notion that a slower spread constitutes herd immunity is false. Slower spread is slower spread. Herd immunity is where the immunity rate is high enough where spread stops. Where the chance that under normal circumstances an infected person comes into contact with a non-immune person is so low that cases practically disappear.

    You're assuming the US is one big herd. It isn't. It's 50 herds.
    The idea that the US is 50 separate, discrete units of population makes no sense. Some cities are parts of multi-state conurbations with more intercourse between cities in other states than cities in their own. If the US can be thought of as separate herds, it's not 50 and it doesn't break down on the state level.

    No, it is not. In fact, it is VITAL that we do make assumptions, We need to open up the economy. We CANNOT wait for a year to determine how long immunity lasts (you test every month for re-infection for a large population) which is why I think it is entirely stupid for the WHO to strongly recommend that those recovered still self isolate because they have no evidence that they cannot be re-infected. In a perfect world, we would lock down for an entire year and living off of government dole but that is not going to happen.
    I didn't make any statement regarding policy in my last post, I'm not sure where you could have possibly inferred that. Again, it's not clear yet what what level of immunity infection confers, how potent that immunity might be, or how long it lasts. From a purely epidemiological standpoint, it's still premature to make any assumptions on the matter. Politicians are obviously going to make a different calculation on that matter.

    Regardless, when we do open back up, we're going to have to deal with a whole lot of deaths.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  11. #1196
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    Also from Reuters, states which opened up sooner are the ones seeing a rise in cases.

    The exception is my state of Virginia. Why do we continue to climb? There has continued to be hot spots in NOVA and in Tidewater. Additionally, we are seeing a rise in case because more and more testing capacity is coming on line. It was woefully short...why? Because Virginia had been tied in to the Federal government and was dependent on it because of the large integration of the of the Federal workforce in our population. Turns out that was a fools errand as the federal government assistant fell through. Why is that? Because we have a governor who is a Democrat....same with NC.

    https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-...S/dgkvlgkrkpb/
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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  12. #1197
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Delaying the inevitable ... the Bee Gees had a song about that, didn't they?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY

    Sorry, Grandma.
    I know you wanted to live to see little Suzi graduate, but we need to get the economy moving again.
    So, we're throwing you and all the old retired folks under the bus, just because keeping you alive is, um, "inconvenient," shall we say.
    Nothing personal, you understand.
    It's just bidness.
    No wonder you're an academic and never had to make a decision that deals with peoiple's lives or livelihoods. We are betting on the side that Doctors know something about viruses and that immediate immunity is still a thing.

    IF COVID-19 IMMUNITY IS NOT A THING (AND THAT IS AS STUPID AS YOU MAKE IT SOUND TO BE), THEN WE EXECUTE EXTREME MEASURES - MILITARY ENFORCED QUARRANTINE until COVID-19 burns out. Just as we did with ebola.

    FYI! Trump was ready to enforce quarrantine. Fauci and Blix talked him out of it. So, yeah, immediate COVID-19 immunity is a thing.

    Quarrantine Gandma and youtube her baby's wedding!
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 19 May 20, at 18:53.

  13. #1198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    The notion that a slower spread constitutes herd immunity is false. Slower spread is slower spread. Herd immunity is where the immunity rate is high enough where spread stops. Where the chance that under normal circumstances an infected person comes into contact with a non-immune person is so low that cases practically disappear.
    So, the herd is becoming more resistant to the virus, no?

  14. #1199
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    So, the herd is becoming more resistant to the virus, no?
    Herd immunity is where an entire population is conferred protection and infection ceases, by virtue of a high enough percentage of the population having immunity.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  15. #1200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Herd immunity is where an entire population is conferred protection and infection ceases, by virtue of a high enough percentage of the population having immunity.
    The point is to reach that, you have to have infection - not zero infection. The more you have, not less, the closer you are to herd immunity.

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