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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #1141
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    Quote Originally Posted by statquo View Post
    I noticed you are just bullet pointing talking points too that I already explained in my post you quoted so I sense an agenda/conspiracy theory. I won't engage any further.
    That's a good way to retain your sanity.

    Excellent posts by the way, keep 'em coming.
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  2. #1142
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    DING!!! DING!!!! DING!!!! We have a winner!!!

    I'd like to know the flash to bang time on you showing up at the school to make a comment, Gunny on the bolded part.
    Called both the Principle and the Superintendent of Schools that evening. Shouldn't have wasted my time. Between the 2 I got "I would never keep a teacher from sharing the Lords word" and "He is bound by faith to tell the truth. Who am I to silence him"
    The next thing from both of them was wanting to know which church my family attended.

    I'm use to it. I live in the rural south where everyone is either a Southern Bapt or Pentecostal. Methodist are sometimes tolerated.

    For those that think I denied my son a choice. When he got curious, He and I attended church services with my mother on a couple of occasions and he also went with his grandmother and aunt for quite a while. Got exposed to both flavors.
    I never bad mouthed and religion and even helped him look stuff up in the Bible when he had questions. I let him decide for his self
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  3. #1143
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I'm glad he went public because what he has to say is important, to the entire world. You said you love statistics this means you attach some importance to the credibility of the data. Did you by any chance read the article he got attacked for ?

    A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data | Stat | Mar 17 2020

    Making policy on the basis of incomplete data ! if you do that then expensive mistakes will be made.

    This is what he got demonized for ?

    There are examples. UK builds 4,000 bed field hospital within 9 days in London. Nightingales. Max occupancy never exceeded 35 (!)

    It wouldn't be so bad if that was the only one but they went on to build three more elsewhere in the country. What made them do it.

    This was the first guy to clue me in that we were flying blind. All of us.

    The essence of science is questioning the scientists not swallowing everything they hand out willy nilly.

    No where was this better demonstrated than in the global warming thread here on the board.

    Lock downs are easy to get into but much harder to get out of.

    We aren't going to stay in lock down forever. At some point we will have to transition away.

    Attacking people who have ideas about that isn't very smart. It isn't scientific, its group think.
    A old military axiom ' The 60% solution executed now is better than the 100% solution next week" in other words

    Do something now and adjust as the situation becomes clearer. Or else you will do nothing waiting for more/better information and become overwhelmed by events.

    In your example it is much better to have those beds available but not needed in the long run than to need those beds and not have them
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  4. #1144
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Called both the Principle and the Superintendent of Schools that evening. Shouldn't have wasted my time. Between the 2 I got "I would never keep a teacher from sharing the Lords word" and "He is bound by faith to tell the truth. Who am I to silence him"
    The next thing from both of them was wanting to know which church my family attended.

    I'm use to it. I live in the rural south where everyone is either a Southern Bapt or Pentecostal. Methodist are sometimes tolerated.

    For those that think I denied my son a choice. When he got curious, He and I attended church services with my mother on a couple of occasions and he also went with his grandmother and aunt for quite a while. Got exposed to both flavors.
    I never bad mouthed and religion and even helped him look stuff up in the Bible when he had questions. I let him decide for his self
    Wow, you have a lot more control than I would. The moment someone says that to me, concerning my son, in a public school is the moment things escalate. Dealing with this moron on my professional board who calls himself "christian" vs. christian. Notice the difference. One is a narrow minded bigoted fake and one is the real deal. One tells you what they are in case you didn't know and the other never ever has to open their mouth about it. While i am all for your son to make his own decisions I am not Ok with someone trying to indoctrinate someone impressionable. Suffice it to say I wouldn't be a very popular person in your neck of the woods so I'll stick to the Bay Area.

  5. #1145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    A old military axiom ' The 60% solution executed now is better than the 100% solution next week" in other words

    Do something now and adjust as the situation becomes clearer. Or else you will do nothing waiting for more/better information and become overwhelmed by events.

    In your example it is much better to have those beds available but not needed in the long run than to need those beds and not have them
    These last few months have been a powerful lesson in one of those things military tacticians like to go on about - decision cycles. The virus can move very quickly, very decisively and often out of clear view. In the face of that any mistake - including sluggishness - can be fatal. In a good many cases it has been.

    To torture the military analogy a bit further, every country has faced its own version of the battle of Sedan (1940 version) against a quick, decisive and partly concealed enemy. Those who have had the required resources in place and, most important, acted quickly and decisively have spared themselves the worst. Those lacking the resources or who dithered in have mostly seen the equivalent of the Wehrmacht parading down the Champs Elysee.

    I'm very pleased my nation is in category 1. Less than 100 dead and we are already lifting our lockdown.


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  6. #1146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Called both the Principle and the Superintendent of Schools that evening. Shouldn't have wasted my time. Between the 2 I got "I would never keep a teacher from sharing the Lords word" and "He is bound by faith to tell the truth. Who am I to silence him"
    The next thing from both of them was wanting to know which church my family attended.

    I'm use to it. I live in the rural south where everyone is either a Southern Bapt or Pentecostal. Methodist are sometimes tolerated.
    Should have sent Mrs Gunny down to deal with them. Really put the fear of God into them. :-)


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  7. #1147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Called both the Principle and the Superintendent of Schools that evening. Shouldn't have wasted my time. Between the 2 I got "I would never keep a teacher from sharing the Lords word" and "He is bound by faith to tell the truth. Who am I to silence him"
    The next thing from both of them was wanting to know which church my family attended.

    I'm use to it. I live in the rural south where everyone is either a Southern Bapt or Pentecostal. Methodist are sometimes tolerated.

    For those that think I denied my son a choice. When he got curious, He and I attended church services with my mother on a couple of occasions and he also went with his grandmother and aunt for quite a while. Got exposed to both flavors.
    I never bad mouthed and religion and even helped him look stuff up in the Bible when he had questions. I let him decide for his self
    Well as a Roman Catholic in rural Southside Virginia I feel ya, Gunny.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

  8. #1148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    A old military axiom ' The 60% solution executed now is better than the 100% solution next week"
    Or put another way, don't make perfect be the enemy of good enough.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

  9. #1149
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Well as a Roman Catholic in rural Southside Virginia I feel ya, Gunny.
    Oh I know you do.

    last thread derailment.

    One of the times I went to church with my mother and son, I made the mistake of calling the preacher "Father".

    That led to a visit to my house by the preacher. We had a nice discussion (really) I told him that some of the most influential people in my military career were chaplains. Specifically, 2 Catholic Priest. He pops the question
    "So what do you consider yourself now?" Told him I'm a nonbeliever so I consider myself an atheist.

    He replied "Well at least you didn't become a Catholic"

    I told him it was time for him to leave
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    I'm very pleased my nation is in category 1. Less than 100 dead and we are already lifting our lockdown.
    Don't celebrate just yet. Round two is just six months away and no one can afford another round of this mess.

    Social distancing, flattening the curve, etc, do not save lives. They save hospitals. Come round 2, you will desperately need American blood earned data.

    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Or put another way, don't make perfect be the enemy of good enough.
    And a bad plan is better than no plan. At the very least, you learn what doesn't work.

    And always have a contingency to fix your mistakes. Someone should tell Trump that vocing your denials is not a contingency.

  11. #1151
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Don't celebrate just yet. Round two is just six months away and no one can afford another round of this mess.
    Oz never really entered the community transmission stage, they were at the cluster stage and managed to get their daily cases down. They will be also be heading towards summer six months from now. If that means they spend more time outdoors than indoors they might be ok.

    This spending more time outdoors than indoors also applies to the continent of Africa.

    It's the northern hemisphere heading towards winter that might be more problematic.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Social distancing, flattening the curve, etc, do not save lives. They save hospitals. Come round 2, you will desperately need American blood earned data.
    This is what the literature says, no scientific evidence that social distancing helps with reducing exposure. How else do you explain the drop in deaths here then ?

    Virginia

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    Virginia lock down until June 10, that graph is going to dip further by then.

    Click the graphics to go to the source

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    More pronounced with NYC, which is in lock down until May 15

    What happens after lockdown is lifted and what they have to do to keep those deaths down remains to be seen.

    The hospitals did better with keeping infections spreading in their facility.

    From what i can tell they've lost most from long term care facilities. VA is a case in point. Unable to prevent outbreaks occurring at nursing homes.

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    Swedish foreign minister in an interview said 90% of their deaths came from nursing homes despite having precautions in place.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 May 20, at 09:00.

  12. #1152
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Don't celebrate just yet. Round two is just six months away and no one can afford another round of this mess.

    Social distancing, flattening the curve, etc, do not save lives. They save hospitals. Come round 2, you will desperately need American blood earned data.
    We are celebrating winning a battle, not a war. We saved lives AND hospitals. Sweden (to use an example of doing very little) is around 3500 dead with 40% of our population. I'll get back to you when we hit 3500. I'm betting Sweden will still be well ahead of us then.

    There will be round two, and probably other rounds. In addition to not sacrificing our old people we have also bought ourselves time to put in place resources & processes to deal with those waves. We have tests ready to use, we have contact tracing systems set up, we have ways to live our lives that lessen transmission vectors.

    We don't need much of America's 'blood won' data, there is plenty of that to go round. There will no doubt be some useful science & medical information, but there will be a great deal of that from everywhere. There is also plenty of data from places that have succeeded. There is actually a group of 'first movers' comprising Australia, Austria, Denmark, Norway, Greece, the Czech Republic, Israel and Singapore who have been exchanging data on what works, what doesn't & where to next.

    Studying failure is also useful, but we already knew that putting your nation in the hands of angry children & internet trolls was a bad idea. It is a pity America may end up losing as many people to a virus in 2 months as it did to war in 75 years to learn that lesson (assuming it does learn).


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  13. #1153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    We are celebrating winning a battle, not a war. We saved lives AND hospitals. Sweden (to use an example of doing very little) is around 3500 dead with 40% of our population. I'll get back to you when we hit 3500. I'm betting Sweden will still be well ahead of us then.
    Except that the US and others would be much further ahead in the herd immunity thing since the most vulnerable would have mostly died. This is not a disease that attacks the young and strong but the old and weak.

    If there is a message to the US, it's lose some weight, cut sugar, fat, and salt, and quantity from your nutrition. Morbid obesity contributes to the weak.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    We don't need much of America's 'blood won' data, there is plenty of that to go round. There will no doubt be some useful science & medical information, but there will be a great deal of that from everywhere. There is also plenty of data from places that have succeeded. There is actually a group of 'first movers' comprising Australia, Austria, Denmark, Norway, Greece, the Czech Republic, Israel and Singapore who have been exchanging data on what works, what doesn't & where to next.
    Not the data I'm talking about. It's the autoposies and medical treatments. The ones that works well (oxygen) and the ones that don't (forced air). That data, no one can touch the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    Studying failure is also useful, but we already knew that putting your nation in the hands of angry children & internet trolls was a bad idea.
    Cannot blame Trump for this one. He was faced with a task that would have tested the best. First off, not every medical expert was united. The CDC thought they had containment under control. Even the WHO stated that banning travel from certain countries was not necessary, especially from China.

    When Trump banned travel from Europe, he was faced with push back from our NATO allies and Merkel, a PhD in quantum chemistry, stated outright that this was not necessary. My own Ministry of Health up until the day WHO declaired a pandemic stated that self isolation is not necessary.

    That being said, Trump was still one colossal walking clusterfuck. What we need now is an image of leadership who has a handle on things, even when they don't. Even when you don't have the answers, you have to project that you have ways to find the answers. I wished he followed his own advice to swallow bleach.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    It is a pity America may end up losing as many people to a virus in 2 months as it did to war in 75 years to learn that lesson (assuming it does learn).
    This? This is nothing more than a wake up call. A H1N1 variant killed more people in one year than WWII.

    People keep saying this is worst than the flu. I submit that it is not. The flu, despite vacines and anti-virals, still managed to kill just as many people as this thing. The H1N1 managed to spread a hell of a lot faster than COVID-19.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 13 May 20, at 12:55.

  14. #1154
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    Except that the US and others would be much further ahead in the herd immunity thing since the most vulnerable would have mostly died. This is not a disease that attacks the young and strong but the old and weak.
    several points.

    in the biggest cluster in the US -- the NYC cluster -- antibody tests show that roughly 20% of the NYC population have been infected.

    so even in one of the highest population density areas in the US, where the virus hit hardest, we're still nowhere close to herd immunity.

    also, the newest research shows even the folks who survive, including the young and the fit, will often have serious issues with their hearts, lungs, and kidneys afterwards.

    Not the data I'm talking about. It's the autoposies and medical treatments. The ones that works well (oxygen) and the ones that don't (forced air). That data, no one can touch the US.
    people are dying enough in carload lots elsewhere for this data. Italy and France, not to say the UK and to a lesser degree Germany, have plenty of medical data.

    i for one would be very, very happy to have the German death rate in the US in exchange for whatever data that may or may not have been gained.

    Cannot blame Trump for this one. He was faced with a task that would have tested the best. First off, not every medical expert was united. The CDC thought they had containment under control. Even the WHO stated that banning travel from certain countries was not necessary, especially from China.

    When Trump banned travel from Europe, he was faced with push back from our NATO allies and Merkel, a PhD in quantum chemistry, stated outright that this was not necessary. My own Ministry of Health up until the day WHO declaired a pandemic stated that self isolation is not necessary.
    the US is more decentralized than most Western states and it showed-- because the one mechanism we have for centralized leadership, the Executive branch, has not demonstrated that leadership.

    there's a reason why Trump likes to talk about his (partial) travel ban to China so much; because that was the ONE thing he kinda did right, but at the expense of everything else. he bought time and he did precisely nothing with the time.

    That being said, Trump was still one colossal walking clusterfuck. What we need now is an image of leadership who has a handle on things, even when they don't. Even when you don't have the answers, you have to project that you have ways to find the answers. I wished he followed his own advice to swallow bleach.
    couldn't agree more.

    People keep saying this is worst than the flu. I submit that it is not. The flu, despite vacines and anti-virals, still managed to kill just as many people as this thing. The H1N1 managed to spread a hell of a lot faster than COVID-19.
    couldn't agree less.

    in the US, the flu kills anywhere from 12,000-60,000 deaths over the course of a year.

    in the roughly 3.5 months that COVID has been a thing in the US, there's now been 83K deaths, and that's with the lockdowns and social distancing-- a good portion of which are about to go away over the course of the next few weeks, because political toleration of further measures is coming to its limit.

    remember when I said that 100K dead by August would be very good? that's obviously not going to happen anymore; we're -still- dying at roughly 1,500 Americans a day, and that is with the NYC cluster largely resolved and the lockdowns still largely in place.

    I fully expect to see this number rocket up over the next month in the second wave; the spread will be -even faster- than the first wave because the virus is already present.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  15. #1155
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    several points.

    in the biggest cluster in the US -- the NYC cluster -- antibody tests show that roughly 20% of the NYC population have been infected.

    so even in one of the highest population density areas in the US, where the virus hit hardest, we're still nowhere close to herd immunity.
    The US as a whole? No, but NYC cluster is miles ahead of Australia.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    also, the newest research shows even the folks who survive, including the young and the fit, will often have serious issues with their hearts, lungs, and kidneys afterwards.
    You're describing those who has been hospitalized. For the mass majority who had not been hospitalized, they are fine. Also, you've contradicted yourself. Your article references US data.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    people are dying enough in carload lots elsewhere for this data. Italy and France, not to say the UK and to a lesser degree Germany, have plenty of medical data.
    Not with 5 million cases worth of meta data. Everyone around the world would be using US data as the benchmark.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i for one would be very, very happy to have the German death rate in the US in exchange for whatever data that may or may not have been gained.
    Like everything else in life, things ain't fair but you take what you can get. US data will save future lives.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the US is more decentralized than most Western states and it showed-- because the one mechanism we have for centralized leadership, the Executive branch, has not demonstrated that leadership.
    My point was that I can understand how Trump arrive at his decisions. Contradictory medical expert advice from the CDC and WHO against Fauci and Blix. Even Germany's Merkel, a scientist, pushed back against the travel ban.

    I also fully expect Trump not to own any of his mistakes but STFU when you're relying on comic books for advice and you know you're relying on comic books.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    couldn't agree less.

    in the US, the flu kills anywhere from 12,000-60,000 deaths over the course of a year.
    That is precisely the point. Against vacines and anti-virals, influenza still manage this death rate. We are measuring vacine and anti-viral influenza barriers against social distancing COVID-19 barriers. You want to know how influenza really stacks up against COVID-19 without vacince and anti-viral barriers in place? 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 13 May 20, at 18:34.

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