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  • Surprise surprise

    Scientists who express different views on Covid-19 should be heard, not demonized | Stat | Apr 27 2020

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    • In a perfect world, scientists would have these debates in private, because during a crisis, you need a consistent message. But, unfortunately, anyone can say anything at anytime, everything is politicized, and you can't trust those in power.

      Example: X leader of one country needs a strong economy to help his chances at re-election. 49 scientists say, "lockdown the economy". One scientist says, and maybe with good intentions and legitimate questioning, "Is this the right course? Why not try this other way?"

      X Leader says, "Oh look, a single scientist says there's a way to not lockdown the economy, which will help my chances at being re-elected. We'll disregard the 49 other scientists, and run with the opinion of one scientist who has a more favorable idea. And if the 49 scientists disagree, then it's obvious they are all bias because of their political views."

      Now the messaging is inconsistent, people don't know who to believe, don't trust the information, question possible motives, and then fall back into the friendly confines of their political tribe and turn it into, yet another, 'us vs them'.

      Comment


      • Continuing, since I forgot to add this part and can't edit it in,

        ... now that the 1 scientist has put his idea out in public, public discourse gets ahold of it, by a public who have no idea what they are reading, have no idea how to do research and no idea how to fact check or understand the research, and suddenly you get a huge wave of so called 'experts' and pundits who post horseshit on social media to push their political views and discredit people who have been doing their jobs for decades with the best most high tech equipment and computers in the world.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by statquo View Post
          Continuing, since I forgot to add this part and can't edit it in,

          ... now that the 1 scientist has put his idea out in public, public discourse gets ahold of it, by a public who have no idea what they are reading, have no idea how to do research and no idea how to fact check or understand the research, and suddenly you get a huge wave of so called 'experts' and pundits who post horseshit on social media to push their political views and discredit people who have been doing their jobs for decades with the best most high tech equipment and computers in the world.
          I feel that today there are less average Americans who actually understand science and definitely do not understand the scientific method. You could say I was a budding scientist when I was 8 years old and my first tropical fish got sick. I poured through all the books I could find about diseases of tropical fish, and this was 1961, to learn and find a possible cure. Ever since I have been a show me the facts person which drives some nuts as I don't take won't take them verbatim but immediately check things out. I want the citations and then some. Part was personality and the rest training. I can't count the hours and hours spent in biology, microbiology, and chemistry labs doing experiments. Then there was the statistics classes. God, I hate stats but it is necessary. There is one here who could certainly use a couple of hundred hours of lab time and statistical evaluation to better understand the method.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
            I feel that today there are less average Americans who actually understand science and definitely do not understand the scientific method. You could say I was a budding scientist when I was 8 years old and my first tropical fish got sick. I poured through all the books I could find about diseases of tropical fish, and this was 1961, to learn and find a possible cure. Ever since I have been a show me the facts person which drives some nuts as I don't take won't take them verbatim but immediately check things out. I want the citations and then some. Part was personality and the rest training. I can't count the hours and hours spent in biology, microbiology, and chemistry labs doing experiments. Then there was the statistics classes. God, I hate stats but it is necessary. There is one here who could certainly use a couple of hundred hours of lab time and statistical evaluation to better understand the method.
            The Scientific Method was pounded into my head when I was in 7th Grade Earth Science in 1970. I always wondered why I had to learn this as I had no plans on being a scientist.


            And in college in the mid-1970s and I was analyzing the US response to the Chinese intervention in Korea. I realized I was using the Scientific Method to organize my thoughts and points of view.

            I know my son uses it as does my wife. But he is a therapist and my wife is a nurse. Alas, if I mentioned it at work I am afraid almost no one would know what I was talking about.
            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
            Mark Twain

            Comment


            • For those who asked about Virginia. The May numbers are expected to rise as testing results continue to come in. We are having a shortage of testing equipment.

              https://www.nbc12.com/2020/05/06/sta...daily-updates/
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                You never listened to what that prof said either. I'd love to see you challenge what he said.
                This:
                Originally posted by statquo View Post
                In a perfect world, scientists would have these debates in private, because during a crisis, you need a consistent message. But, unfortunately, anyone can say anything at anytime, everything is politicized, and you can't trust those in power.

                Example: X leader of one country needs a strong economy to help his chances at re-election. 49 scientists say, "lockdown the economy". One scientist says, and maybe with good intentions and legitimate questioning, "Is this the right course? Why not try this other way?"

                X Leader says, "Oh look, a single scientist says there's a way to not lockdown the economy, which will help my chances at being re-elected. We'll disregard the 49 other scientists, and run with the opinion of one scientist who has a more favorable idea. And if the 49 scientists disagree, then it's obvious they are all bias because of their political views."

                Now the messaging is inconsistent, people don't know who to believe, don't trust the information, question possible motives, and then fall back into the friendly confines of their political tribe and turn it into, yet another, 'us vs them'.
                Originally posted by statquo View Post
                Continuing, since I forgot to add this part and can't edit it in,

                ... now that the 1 scientist has put his idea out in public, public discourse gets ahold of it, by a public who have no idea what they are reading, have no idea how to do research and no idea how to fact check or understand the research, and suddenly you get a huge wave of so called 'experts' and pundits who post horseshit on social media to push their political views and discredit people who have been doing their jobs for decades with the best most high tech equipment and computers in the world.
                Excellent post, statquo.

                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                I'm amazed at the push back to the suggestion over counting could have occurred.
                Occam's Razor: Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

                The idea that there's an undercount is consistent with the information available. The idea that there's an overcount is arrived at through contorted logic, tortured interpretations, mental gymnastics, and a metric f-ckton of assumptions.
                Last edited by Ironduke; 07 May 20,, 20:11.
                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  I don't need any proof of it. You asked i answered. That's the sentiment. An assertion
                  That's nice but this is the WAB. You want to lay out assertions, back it up with proof. You want to do the opposite? Find some other board that embraces that sort of no-proof bullshit.

                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  What is the point of this inquisition ?

                  I've told you what i've thought and that's it.
                  The point of this "inquisition" is you trying to change point of what we were talking about in mid-debate. Once again, this is the WAB. That's not how things work here.

                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  I have no problems with him. If you hate him that's your problem.
                  And there you go again: Pulling something out of your ass that wasn't there in the first place. I didn't ask you if you liked him or not.

                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  Oh and for future reference. I don't troll. Waste of time.

                  In some lesser places, the moment you question things or say anything that is at odds with the convention you are charged with trolling. How can i be trolling if i'm supporting your govt ?
                  And yet another attempt to reframe what was previously said. Trolling isn't questioning things, or saying things that are at odds with the convention. Nor is it about supporting the US government or not.

                  Do you even know what trolling is?

                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  This is all going OT for me, i'm here to understand how the US is dealing with this pandemic.

                  Can we get back to that.
                  No you're not. You're here to interpret things through the fog of nonsense and obfuscation that seems to surround your critical thinking abilities.

                  Whether you intend to or not, you're here playing 52 Pickup and it's gotten really old, really fast.
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • Trump Twice Ignored Advisors Who Urged Him in January to Pressure Xi for Coronavirus Transparency
                    The National Review

                    President Trump on two different occasions in January reportedly rejected the advice of advisers who urged him to ask Chinas president for more transparency about the nature of the coronavirus.

                    Trump brushed off his advisers when they urged greater transparency because he thought it might imperil future U.S.-China relations, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

                    Trumps advisers reportedly argued that a confrontation with China over its handling of the virus would be received well on both sides of the aisle. They proposed a special commission to investigate how the virus originated and examine Chinas efforts to control the spread.

                    The coronavirus outbreak, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has cast a pall over the Trump administrations efforts to improve relations with the communist country. As the outbreak turned into a global pandemic, U.S. officials have heightened their criticism of Chinas early handling of the virus and accused Beijing of mounting a coverup of the extent of the spread within Chinas borders.

                    During the early days of the outbreak in January and February, Trump praised China several times for transparency around the coronavirus.

                    The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency, the president wrote in a January 24 tweet, two days after he touted the administrations trade deal with China.

                    Throughout February, Trump praised Chinas President Xi for working very hard to combat the outbreak.

                    Since then, however, he has adopted a more critical tone of Chinas handling of the virus, slamming the World Health Organization for apparently taking China at its word about the nature and spread of the pandemic.

                    The W.H.O. really blew it, Trump wrote on Twitter in early April. For some reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be giving that a good look. Fortunately I rejected their advice on keeping our borders open to China early on. Why did they give us such a faulty recommendation?

                    The U.S. intelligence community concluded last month that China deliberately provided incomplete public numbers for coronavirus cases and deaths resulting from the infection. Intelligence agencies have not determined whether the virus escaped from a Wuhan lab, but have said the virus was not manmade or genetically modified.

                    The WHO recommended in January that countries keep borders and trade open even as it dubbed the coronavirus outbreak a global emergency.

                    In December, when China is believed to have become aware of the virus, local and national officials issued a gag order to labs in Wuhan after scientists there identified a new viral pneumonia, ordering them to halt tests, destroy samples, and conceal the news. Link
                    ___________
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                      I feel that today there are less average Americans who actually understand science and definitely do not understand the scientific method. You could say I was a budding scientist when I was 8 years old and my first tropical fish got sick. I poured through all the books I could find about diseases of tropical fish, and this was 1961, to learn and find a possible cure. Ever since I have been a show me the facts person which drives some nuts as I don't take won't take them verbatim but immediately check things out. I want the citations and then some. Part was personality and the rest training. I can't count the hours and hours spent in biology, microbiology, and chemistry labs doing experiments. Then there was the statistics classes. God, I hate stats but it is necessary. There is one here who could certainly use a couple of hundred hours of lab time and statistical evaluation to better understand the method.
                      People are just looking for easy answers that fit into their personal narrative. I want to say the average person is intellectually lazy, but I feel it's not the right wording because people will look up what they are questioning. It's more of a matter of being objective, which I do believe the average person is either A) intentionally not in order to push their own personal feelings or B) simply do not realize what objectivity means.

                      The problem with looking for easy answers and not being objective means that you can read an article or opinion piece and say "well that concludes my research into the topic because it confirms what I believed or felt." You've left out the second part of critical thinking which is to be able to fact check the author, terminology and statistics etc., allowing you to critically assess the article so you can understand it to be right or wrong. And to the average person, I don't believe vast, vast amounts of people have that ability or skill, and not because they are at fault, but because they aren't proficient in that subject. But political beliefs and the belief in your own opinion as a right to freedom of expression means the average person who isn't an expert in a subject believes their opinion should carry the same weight as a heavily researched, heavily scrutinized piece of scientific literature.

                      The question I've wondered is, is that an indicator of educational deterioration as a country, or is it just a result of too many people being polluted with so much information because of the internet and mass media?

                      I love statistics by the way.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

                        And in college in the mid-1970s and I was analyzing the US response to the Chinese intervention in Korea. I realized I was using the Scientific Method to organize my thoughts and points of view.
                        Really? Good to hear and I hope some staff/senior officers put it to use. I know some staff/senior officers who could use that way of thinking that would have benefited to average soldier. I was once again reading an account of the battle for the worthless forest called Hurtgen. My wife sees me pausing, looking off into the distance, thinking, muttering and asks why I read things that get me upset. I tell her it is a learning experience that should never be forgotten. An analogy as in when some one tries to describe an eye condition over the phone and asks what I think. I say I think I need to SEE what we are talking about.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                          The question I've wondered is, is that an indicator of educational deterioration as a country, or is it just a result of too many people being polluted with so much information because of the internet and mass media?

                          I love statistics by the way.
                          A little bit of both. School curriculum is not the same today as it was in the 60s. Back then it was reading, writing, arithmetic and science. From 3rd or 4th grade on I always had a science class. When I have high school kids in my chair and I talk to, quiz them, I am many times surprised about how little they know about science and history. Then when they need to, in theory, learn something they go to their phone and the internet rather than reading. So that feeds into your second possible or and since they have no idea how to vet ...

                          Comment


                          • Continuing Unemployment Claims, national and by selected states

                            New York is in terrible shape, California seems to be doing very well, but Florida is only beginning to suffer.
                            Attached Files
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                              Really? Good to hear and I hope some staff/senior officers put it to use. I know some staff/senior officers who could use that way of thinking that would have benefited to average soldier. I was once again reading an account of the battle for the worthless forest called Hurtgen. My wife sees me pausing, looking off into the distance, thinking, muttering and asks why I read things that get me upset. I tell her it is a learning experience that should never be forgotten. An analogy as in when some one tries to describe an eye condition over the phone and asks what I think. I say I think I need to SEE what we are talking about.
                              1. Alas, that effort was for Dr Snow and the history department at West Virginia University and not some staff! Still got an A on that paper as I recall.

                              2. By the time I hit the Huertgen in the early 1980s I had learned the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) and applied that to my analysis on our unit staff ride. The MDMP has a lot in common with the scientific method...how to analyze an issue objectively and figure ways to a desired end state. By the time I returned in 2017 I had decades of study as well as CGSC in my rearview mirror. I found myself swearing A LOT that weekend.
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                                I feel that today there are less average Americans who actually understand science and definitely do not understand the scientific method.
                                Even science graduates, believe FB/whatsapp forwards like gospel, then there is this bias of seeing things through the lens of religion, and finally the political bias. One just cannot comprehend the level of idiocy in India. We have 1.25 billion donkeys here out of a population of 1.3 billion. Now beat that!
                                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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