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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #1081
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    DE let me throw this into the mix.

    Under counting

    In my State, Florida, if you contract or die from Covid but your not a full time Florida resident, the State doesn't count you as a Florida Covid stat.

    So if you have a winter home in Florida (we call them Snowbirds) and you die in Tampa of Covid, you don't get counted by the State as a State casualty

    The State Medical Examiners were releasing Covid death numbers but the State made them stop. Because they were 10% higher than the "Official Numbers" released by the Fla Dept of Health.

    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...ade-them-stop/

    Inmates in the State prison system. A Prison in a neighboring county just had 60 positive cases. Its been in the news but wasn't reported in the # of cases in the county. So no idea if the State are including inmate cases or if so how/where they are counted.

    Even with those "We don't count those" Florida has the 10th highest number of deaths in the country

    So are the numbers over or under reported?
    Last edited by Gun Grape; 06 May 20, at 02:56.
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  2. #1082
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    So the CoD in Germany to qualify for C19 is strict ?
    Read it again and then one more time. Pay attention to the number 95...

  3. #1083
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Read it again and then one more time. Pay attention to the number 95...
    I was going to say something earlier but held my tongue. To see if kato corrected him, before he likely hit the sack.

    Personally, I read what kato wrote as:

    • the autopsies were performed on corpses of a person who died while infected with COVID-19
    • they were literally just anybody who died while infected (i.e. they weren't a subset of cases that met some "strict criteria" as per DE)
    • virtually all had one or more underlying conditions, and 80% had cardiovascular disease as one of those underlying conditions
    • despite the underlying conditions, 95% of deaths were attributable to COVID-19, and not the underlying condition

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    So the CoD in Germany to qualify for C19 is strict ?

    Could this explain why we see the low death rates in Germany. Then you are following the WHO guidelines as that doctor told me.
    I think he has a cognitive bias: he read something, then there's this interpretation that's completely off-base, had nothing to do with what was said, which then confirms the bias.

    I'll let kato speak for himself, but nothing in kato's post seems to have anything to do with what DE took away from it, and no reasonable person could interpret kato as implying such.

    Being generous here, it was a fantastical interpretation and wishful thinking. An extreme case of contorting facts to fit a theory, rather then theorizing based on facts.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 06 May 20, at 06:49.
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  4. #1084
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    Yea Ironduke is definately right in this. Having an 'underlying condition' would not in ordinary circumstances have caused death. But the excess deaths for the time of year is accounted for by the presence of the viral pandemic.

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    So UK is like 15,000 deaths above the average for this time of year. It is not 'the normal reasons' or 'underlying condition' causing this but directly or indirectly the pandemic. In some cases these excess deaths will not be infected at all by Covid19 but because all the medical resources are focused on fighting the pandemic extra people die due to lack of timely treatment when in ordinary circumstances they might be expected to survive. It's a bit like the builder on the skyscraper who drops a sandwhich which lands on the head of someone with a weak skull and kills them; it was not weak skull that or 'underlying problem' that killed them but the intervention of the sandwhich dropped by the negligent builder.

  5. #1085
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    DE has a cognitive bias, read something, then there's this interpretation that's completely off-base, had nothing to do with what was said, which then confirms the bias.
    I actually understand where he is coming from:
    • there are suggestions that the idea of counting anyone who dies "with" Covid-19 as a "Covid-19 death" leads to overreporting
    • the fact that the autopsy series proves that numbers are not overreported (i.e. these deaths "were" Covid-19 deaths) and thus lack of overreporting may be the cause of "low casualty numbers" in Germany.

    In Germany the autopsy results are used by anti-lockdown activists and lobbyists to also infer a non-subtle "these people would have died anyway" notion.
    The only thing one can really take away from it is that people with underlaying conditions are particularly threatened.

    The real problem with DE's post is that unlike media claims in particular outside Germany, the country does not have "low casualty numbers". The autopsies were performed on all people who are counted as "Covid-19 deaths" in the state of Hamburg. Hamburg has a current fatality rate of 4.1% among all cases tested positive for Covid-19, above the long-term projection by WHO of 3.4% and slightly below the German average of 4.2%.

    Just as a note, since it was mentioned on the last page of the thread: Hospitals are not a vector in New York. The share of medical staff among all cases in New York who are infected among all cases is ridiculously low compared to any other country. As of mid-April about 3,000 hospital staff were either tested positive or self-isolating non-tested - that was 1.5% relative to all cases in New York at the time. In Germany the share of medical staff among infected is consistently at around 4.5%.

  6. #1086
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I was going to say something earlier but held my tongue. To see if kato corrected him, before he likely hit the sack.

    Personally, I read what kato wrote as:

    • the autopsies were performed on corpses of a person who died while infected with COVID-19
    • they were literally just anybody who died while infected (i.e. they weren't a subset of cases that met some "strict criteria" as per DE)
    • virtually all had one or more underlying conditions, and 80% had cardiovascular disease as one of those underlying conditions
    • despite the underlying conditions, 95% of deaths were attributable to COVID-19, and not the underlying condition


    I think he has a cognitive bias: he read something, then there's this interpretation that's completely off-base, had nothing to do with what was said, which then confirms the bias.

    I'll let kato speak for himself, but nothing in kato's post seems to have anything to do with what DE took away from it, and no reasonable person could interpret kato as implying such.

    Being generous here, it was a fantastical interpretation and wishful thinking. An extreme case of contorting facts to fit a theory, rather then theorizing based on facts.
    Has form for this, which is one of the reasons I stopped wasting my time long before COVID kicked off. I have watched you all try to break through the confirmation bias & bullshit firm in the knowledge that you were wasting your time. Facts can't fix that which isn't based in facts to begin with. I learned that the hard way on a completely different topic. Now you & everyone else has too.

    Not bothering to engage is way less stressful, believe me.


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  7. #1087
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Yea Ironduke is definately right in this. Having an 'underlying condition' would not in ordinary circumstances have caused death. But the excess deaths for the time of year is accounted for by the presence of the viral pandemic.
    Read #1068 & #1071

    That NYC graph look like their over counting or undercounting ?

    I suspect they are over counting and hey this why your graph goes skywards : )

    US CDC at some point decided probables also count without a test. No reason is given.


    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    So UK is like 15,000 deaths above the average for this time of year. It is not 'the normal reasons' or 'underlying condition' causing this but directly or indirectly the pandemic. In some cases these excess deaths will not be infected at all by Covid19 but because all the medical resources are focused on fighting the pandemic extra people die due to lack of timely treatment when in ordinary circumstances they might be expected to survive. It's a bit like the builder on the skyscraper who drops a sandwhich which lands on the head of someone with a weak skull and kills them; it was not weak skull that or 'underlying problem' that killed them but the intervention of the sandwhich dropped by the negligent builder.
    How is cause of death recorded in the UK ? died of or died with

    What i find odd with the UK stats is no recovered are listed. Why ?

    It's not like every one that gets infected dies. Why aren't the ones that recover being accounted for.

    Recovered here means tested negative twice as in the person immune system beat the virus.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 May 20, at 11:57.

  8. #1088
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    I actually understand where he is coming from:
    • there are suggestions that the idea of counting anyone who dies "with" Covid-19 as a "Covid-19 death" leads to overreporting
    • the fact that the autopsy series proves that numbers are not overreported (i.e. these deaths "were" Covid-19 deaths) and thus lack of overreporting may be the cause of "low casualty numbers" in Germany.
    Correct and this has a bearing on policy of opening up. I will post more on this in the other thread. Streeck gave an interesting interview.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    In Germany the autopsy results are used by anti-lockdown activists and lobbyists to also infer a non-subtle "these people would have died anyway" notion.
    If 95% of the autopsies are showing lung damage then that is C19 caused presuming they did not have any lung problems earlier. In this case the co-morbidities would not matter. I don't have an argument here if you are presenting lung damage, this is a respiratory disease : )

    How many countries are going to go through the trouble of doing autopsies, heh on all the dead from this disease.

    It means your data can be trusted.


    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    The only thing one can really take away from it is that people with underlaying conditions are particularly threatened.[/qute]
    Yes because we still don't know the extent this virus caused in their death.

    The real problem with DE's post is that unlike media claims in particular outside Germany, the country does not have "low casualty numbers". The autopsies were performed on all people who are counted as "Covid-19 deaths" in the state of Hamburg. Hamburg has a current fatality rate of 4.1% among all cases tested positive for Covid-19, above the long-term projection by WHO of 3.4% and slightly below the German average of 4.2%.
    Per million Germany are the lowest in Europe for a major country to the point i think of Germany & Belgium as outliers on opposite ends of the spectrum.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Just as a note, since it was mentioned on the last page of the thread: Hospitals are not a vector in New York. The share of medical staff among all cases in New York who are infected among all cases is ridiculously low compared to any other country. As of mid-April about 3,000 hospital staff were either tested positive or self-isolating non-tested - that was 1.5% relative to all cases in New York at the time. In Germany the share of medical staff among infected is consistently at around 4.5%.
    Now there is a lesson there to be had. What are they doing to keep their numbers so low. It's higher in other countries and causing much grief.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 May 20, at 12:13.

  9. #1089
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    DE let me throw this into the mix.

    Under counting

    In my State, Florida, if you contract or die from Covid but your not a full time Florida resident, the State doesn't count you as a Florida Covid stat.

    So if you have a winter home in Florida (we call them Snowbirds) and you die in Tampa of Covid, you don't get counted by the State as a State casualty
    Go to floridadisaster.org and scroll down for a report called "COVID-19 Data - Daily Report"

    Could not find any graphs of deaths in there instead there are line counts and the report is over 600 pages long as they want to list every one that died. Heh why. Can't find any short summaries.



    First page

    Total cases 37,439
    Florida residents 36,492
    Non-Florida residents 947

    non-residents make up 2.5%

    Pretty small and this for those that tested positive. Those that die will be even less.

    Not getting into why or not you don't include non-residents just saying the non-included number is small.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Even with those "We don't count those" Florida has the 10th highest number of deaths in the country

    So are the numbers over or under reported?
    With your state I can't tell.

    They don't give as much info as the NYC one did on deaths. Just list a number of deaths and whether the person had a contact.

    How is cause of death being recorded in FL ? i see no mention of probables in that report. Are they being counted. If not then presumably FL is only recording confirmed deaths. That is those that tested positive. FL is not following the CDC guidance.


    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Even with those "We don't count those" Florida has the 10th highest number of deaths in the country
    Your stats are improving, take a look at this

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    Your governor was getting flak because he wanted to keep the beaches open.

    Well if what we expected to happen did happen then your positivity rates would have gone up.

    Instead they're dropping : )

    You doubled number of tests and in that time its getting harder to find positives. Positivity is reducing

    Not a consistent trend so keep an eye on them over the coming weeks.

    Whatever your people did it worked !!!



    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    The State Medical Examiners were releasing Covid death numbers but the State made them stop. Because they were 10% higher than the "Official Numbers" released by the Fla Dept of Health.

    https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...ade-them-stop/

    Inmates in the State prison system. A Prison in a neighboring county just had 60 positive cases. Its been in the news but wasn't reported in the # of cases in the county. So no idea if the State are including inmate cases or if so how/where they are counted.
    This is an interesting development, does not say why those examiners were blocked. But looks like they were releasing the info i wanted.

    Nelson — who is also the medical examiner for Polk, Highlands and Hardee counties — said state officials told him they plan to remove causes of death and case descriptions. Without that information, the list is meaningless, he said.
    The state is saying that info is confidential. Nobody is interested in the names of nursing homes etc, just more info on how the deaths are recorded.

    Transparency advocates, public health experts and medical examiners say comprehensive information about deaths is critical to understanding the epidemic’s path and impact.
    Exactly and is precisely why how the counting is done matters a great deal.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 May 20, at 14:05.

  10. #1090
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    See Rule #3 Donald Trump never cares about anybody but himself. Whatever he does or says, he'll do for his own benefit, no one elses.
    I decided to use this rule to see whether it can explain US actions.

    Know that spat going on between Trump & China. Phase 1 of the trade deal signed Jan 15 has China agreeing to buy $200 billion in agricultural goods from the US. China did its best to get a "force majeure" clause included in that deal. They said no human transmission everything ok, just so they could get that. The bastards even sacrificed their own people to keep up appearances.

    Now there is a pandemic they want to renege. Force majeure, right ?

    What happens if China does not buy those agricultural goods ? Trump isn't getting a second term, plain & simple.

    Whether China can keep dragging its feet until Nov remains to be seen.

    So he is threatening them, his team are going on the PR offensive. All this is great for me. Making China squirm is reason #1 for me to like this guy.

    But the moment China caves, the music stops.

    What about holding China accountable so we don't get another pandemic from them ? all out the window. He got what he wanted.

    So whatever he does he'll do for his own benefit but surely that of those farmers as well.

    He was coming down hard on the Paks by late 2017, we cheered everything he said because no US president said it. Moment he realised he needed the Paks to exit Afghanistan he started toning it down. Damp squib.

    Take Obama.

    In 2009 he was talking about G2 with China, this is an absolute nightmare scenario for me.

    Evokes the idea of Grand bargain, spheres of influence. US pulls out of Asia and retreats to Pearl Harbour ? who knows..

    Fortunately that plan went no where, instead by 2012 we get the pivot. Which some called the pirouette but i digress..

    Complete 180.

    With the US one has to be prepared for these flip flops. That's why the hedging by non formal US allies.

    You put it down to the man i see similar US policy under two different leaders.


    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    OK, no imagine the worst of those Indian states. Imagine the Indian state with the most chaos and disorganization, caused by short-sighted, greedy and just plain stupid politicians, and there you will have the Executive Branch of the United States, thanks to Donald Trump. See Rule #4: Donald Trump has no strategy. He has no plan. He's just a racist old man with intellect of a kindergartner, playing 52 Pickup with the United States government.

    One of the most advanced, and the wealthiest nation on the planet is closing in on 70,000 dead, due in large part to just one person's sociopathic greed and self-centered indifference: Donald Trump.
    We're all trying to find our way here. Govts with higher death counts getting more flak. This is why i'm taking an interest in how the counting is being done. Where the deaths are more and where they are less and why.

    You paint a scary image, but tell me why did your economy improve under Trump ? do you even agree your economy improved under him. That's what people tell me.

    because the worst Indian state leaders would not improve things, they'd leave them as is, state finances in the toilet, racking up debt and screw the state up further. Keep fighting with the centre and try to get their own way. Their only goal to stay in office as long as possible. Some times it works and other times not. People are wising up though.

    Whether Trump stands a chance in Nov is down to people remembering things did improve under him and now this virus negates everything. Does it ? we will know in Nov what your people think. Whether they want some one else.


    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    See Rule #3 Donald Trump never cares about anybody but himself. Whatever he does or says, he'll do for his own benefit, no one elses.
    All countries come together in a national crisis. You don't see that happening in yours right now ?

    I saw it the day after 9/11. Cars passing on the main road with little Flags hanging out. Quite a sight.


    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post

    That is correct, I do watch him on a daily basis. I have no choice but to watch him on a daily basis, given his malignant ubiquity and systematic annihilation of American values and institutions.

    Because of this, I and others on the WAB, have been trying to tell you, relentlessly, for years, what a kind of person Donald Trump is, at his core. You've airily dismissed us for various flimsy reasons.

    Maybe now you'll understand what we've been saying and why.

    Take those 2 pictures I posted and print them out in large poster size. Hang them above your computer. Whenever you logon to the WAB or elsewhere to make bewildered comments such as "I just don't understand why Donald Trump did _________" , look up at those posters, read them, and there you will have your answers, Every. Single. Time.
    hehe, well i tried to use it in one scenario. Let's see how it informs with more that i can think up.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 May 20, at 15:04.

  11. #1091
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I decided to use this rule to see whether it can explain US actions.

    Know that spat going on between Trump & China. Phase 1 of the trade deal signed Jan 15 has China agreeing to buy $200 billion in agricultural goods from the US. China did its best to get a "force majeure" clause included in that deal. They said no human transmission everything ok, just so they could get that. The bastards even sacrificed their own people to keep up appearances.

    Now there is a pandemic they want to renege. Force majeure, right ?

    What happens if China does not buy those agricultural goods ? Trump isn't getting a second term, plain & simple.

    Whether China can keep dragging its feet until Nov remains to be seen.

    So he is threatening them, his team are going on the PR offensive. All this is great for me. Making China squirm is reason #1 for me to like this guy.

    But the moment China caves, the music stops.

    What about holding China accountable so we don't get another pandemic from them ? all out the window. He got what he wanted.

    So whatever he does he'll do for his own benefit but surely that of those farmers as well.

    He was coming down hard on the Paks by late 2017, we cheered everything he said because no US president said it. Moment he realised he needed the Paks to exit Afghanistan he started toning it down. Damp squib.

    Take Obama.

    In 2009 he was talking about G2 with China, this is an absolute nightmare scenario for me.

    Evokes the idea of Grand bargain, spheres of influence. US pulls out of Asia and retreats to Pearl Harbour ? who knows..

    Fortunately that plan went no where, instead by 2012 we get the pivot. Which some called the pirouette but i digress..

    Complete 180.

    With the US one has to be prepared for these flip flops. That's why the hedging by non formal US allies.

    You put it down to the man i see similar US policy under two different leaders.



    We're all trying to find our way here. Govts with higher death counts getting more flak. This is why i'm taking an interest in how the counting is being done. Where the deaths are more and where they are less and why.

    You paint a scary image, but tell me why did your economy improve under Trump ? do you even agree your economy improved under him. That's what people tell me.

    because the worst Indian state leaders would not improve things, they'd leave them as is, state finances in the toilet, racking up debt and screw the state up further. Keep fighting with the centre and try to get their own way. Their only goal to stay in office as long as possible. Some times it works and other times not. People are wising up though.

    Whether Trump stands a chance in Nov is down to people remembering things did improve under him and now this virus negates everything. Does it ? we will know in Nov what your people think. Whether they want some one else.



    All countries come together in a national crisis. You don't see that happening in yours right now ?

    I saw it the day after 9/11. Cars passing on the main road with little Flags hanging out. Quite a sight.




    hehe, well i tried to use it in one scenario. Let's see how it informs with more that i can think up.

    At least the first part of your argument seems to assume (correct me if I'm wrong) that the Chinese people either buy $200 billion worth of agricultural products from the USA, or go to bed without supper. I suggest that they would buy what they need on the open market, and that their major challenge is the same either way: delivery logistics, at all parts of the food chain regardless of the continent from which the food originates.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  12. #1092
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    At least the first part of your argument seems to assume (correct me if I'm wrong) that the Chinese people either buy $200 billion worth of agricultural products from the USA, or go to bed without supper. I suggest that they would buy what they need on the open market, and that their major challenge is the same either way: delivery logistics, at all parts of the food chain regardless of the continent from which the food originates.
    I don't know what he is threatening them with yet maybe more tariffs as he won't agree to them exercising the force majeure clause.

    Developing story : )

    How many phases is that China deal going to have, already got problems at Phase 1 ?

    Posted this in the China C19 thread already. Maybe you missed it.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 May 20, at 18:21.

  13. #1093
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
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    Looking at the numbers China only imports 20 Billion in Ag products from the US. That was their highest ever in 2017 Did anyone that negotiated that agreement really think they were going to do 200 Billion overnight.

    Seems to me that Trump wanted a "Win" at home and thats why the Chinese got their "force majeure" clause. Something that never happens.

    We got played like a cheap fiddle. As always with deals from The Art of the deal guy
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  14. #1094
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You put it down to the man i see similar US policy under two different leaders.
    You can't see 2 inches past your own cognitive dissonance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You paint a scary image, but tell me why did your economy improve under Trump ? do you even agree your economy improved under him. That's what people tell me.[
    Donald Trump inherited a good economy when he took office. All he had to do was stay the course. The "improvement" was getting into trade wars like a bull in a china shop and massive tax cuts mostly for the wealthy (while throwing a few coins at the working class). What else do these "people" tell you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Whether Trump stands a chance in Nov is down to people remembering things did improve under him and now this virus negates everything. Does it ? we will know in Nov what your people think. Whether they want some one else.
    It will come down, as it always has, to the last 6 months of his presidency.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    All countries come together in a national crisis. You don't see that happening in yours right now ?

    I saw it the day after 9/11. Cars passing on the main road with little Flags hanging out. Quite a sight.
    We're not talking about the United States. We're talking about D-O-N-A-L-D J-O-H-N T-R-U-M-P
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  15. #1095
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    Looking at the numbers China only imports 20 Billion in Ag products from the US. That was their highest ever in 2017 Did anyone that negotiated that agreement really think they were going to do 200 Billion overnight.

    Seems to me that Trump wanted a "Win" at home and thats why the Chinese got their "force majeure" clause. Something that never happens.

    We got played like a cheap fiddle. As always with deals from The Art of the deal guy
    and you think he'll let them get away with it : )



    All this transparent thing i agree with 100%, who in the world will disagree with that
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 May 20, at 20:00.

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