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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Preventing mortality isn't the goal here. Gauging spread is the goal.
    Then you have to find a way to do so without increasing the infection level or your attempt to 'gauge spread' are counter productive in the first place.

  2. #917
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    I just maybe can take back 70% of the bad things I said about him.
    Whadaya mean only 70 % : D : D
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Apr 20, at 09:30.

  3. #918
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Then you have to find a way to do so without increasing the infection level or your attempt to 'gauge spread' are counter productive in the first place.
    If you find a hostpot it gets quarantined. Barricaded. Wuhan style. That keeps surrounding areas from getting infected.

    India does these kinds of tests for other diseases.

    For C19 they ran about 800 tests a week for the entire country. Started around March. Seems like a laughably low number but it worked. Because if they found even one case alarm bells went off.

    Discovered around 10% of the districts in the country which had the virus. Those were areas we concentrated on.

    In my city, 2 wards out of 198 are sealed off. If they find one positive the ward gets into the red zone. If they find five or more its getting sealed. Nobody goes in or out other than essential services.

    So the rest of the place can function some what but the problem areas are contained.

    This works when the country, all of it is shutdown. Its when we start relaxing that testing rates will have to increase but it isn't going to be mass testing by any stretch.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Apr 20, at 09:31.

  4. #919
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    If you've reached parity with S.Korea at a per million basis then you are in a position to relax some and hold the second wave back.
    That's one of the most retarded interpretations of a statistic I've ever seen. That the US has "reached parity" on tests per capita with South Korea means jackshit.

    South Korea, with competent health surveillance, contact tracing, and high testing rates early on, was able to limit the number of cases to a few tens of thousands (10,700 officially) and 240 dead. For now, they've nipped the problem in the bud.

    In the US, there was no health surveillance, no contact tracing, and very low rates of testing for a long period of time, which led to uncontrolled spread. For the past two weeks, the US has averaged more deaths every 3 hours than South Korea has seen in total. And that's pretty much just among people who have died in the hospital and been tested. In NYC for example, the number of people dying at home each day has been 4-5x higher than previous years, and most of the corpses aren't being tested to confirm whether the cause of death was COVID-related or not.

    The US has had 850,000 confirmed cases, the number of tests being done per day has plateaued, with 20% of tests consistently coming back positive. To an epidemiologist, this implies that millions have likely been infected, and that it's still spreading at a relatively high rate. It seems very likely that the true number of infections have been severely undercounted, and the number of deaths at least moderately undercounted.

    That South Korea has returned one positive for 52 tests is a very good thing, and that the US returns one positive for every 5.3 tests is extremely bad, from an epidemiological standpoint.

    The US total test rate per capita having eventually caught up to South Koreas is just a matter of time having elapsed, and in no way should be interpreted or construed that the situations in each country are even remotely similar.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 23 Apr 20, at 08:57.
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  5. #920
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    If you find a hostpot it gets quarantined. Barricaded. Wuhan style. That keeps surrounding areas from getting infected.
    Well a couple of things about such a plan. How do you know you have found a 'hotspot'? I mean say I have a town of 1000people, how many must test positive for it to be 'barricaded'. So say I test 20 people and all are positive should I conclude that it is a 'hotspot' as I have tested 2% and have a 100% infection rate? But the other 98% may all be negative... Or of course the first 2% could be negative and the other 98% positive. So in order to properly ascertain what is a 'hotspot' and what is not it seems the more you test the more accurate you projection becomes.

    Second you do not 'barricade' the town or region but stop the people mixing. Barricading the town is a bit like what they did on those cruise ships where it spread like wildfire.

  6. #921
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    How-bow-dat? Such an edgy take that you may do yourself an injury, be careful.

    You wishing death on folks who disagree with government action and what to modify it and/or especially wish to attend religious instruction (which is important to millions upon millions) is kind of shrug worthy. I mean on your end it means I guess you aspire to be a horrible human being, but to me I could honeslty care less.
    I see nothing wrong with the idea that it'd be nice that the people who take risks, should alone suffer the consequences.

    Now I do have sympathy for the transit workers, grocery store workers, and emergency services personnel who have come down sick and died. I have zero sympathy for anyone who has attended a religious service in the last month and experienced the same. They brought it on themselves. The only tragedy is that the consequences of such behavior hasn't been contained on those who knowingly and willingly take such avoidable risks.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  7. #922
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Maybe we should let the white nationalist Bible-banging anti-vaxxers gather in large crowds and shout all over each other. Maybe we should let them do us all a service by culling the herd, so long as they agree to stay in that crowd and not infect the rest of us.

    Maybe Darwin’s at work, and we’ll get a nice boost for science in the November election.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  8. #923
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    That's one of the most retarded interpretations of a statistic I've ever seen. That the US has "reached parity" on tests per capita with South Korea means jackshit.
    It means your test rate presently is sufficiently high, yes ?

    That you don't have to stay locked down and can relax restrictions in some places.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    South Korea, with competent health surveillance, contact tracing, and high testing rates early on, was able to limit the number of cases to a few tens of thousands (10,700 officially) and 240 dead. For now, they've nipped the problem in the bud.

    In the US, there was no health surveillance, no contact tracing, and very low rates of testing for a long period of time, which led to uncontrolled spread. For the past two weeks, the US has averaged more deaths every 3 hours than South Korea has seen in total. And that's pretty much just among people who have died in the hospital and been tested. In NYC for example, the number of people dying at home each day has been 4-5x higher than previous years, and most of the corpses aren't being tested to confirm whether the cause of death was COVID-related or not.
    What is the big deal with contact tracing ? Who says you have no contact tracing.

    NJ has 33k cops on the force. Beginning of the month around 800 tested positive, this meant another 2.5k went into quarantine. Another 600 are out for other reasons.

    That is contact tracing right there. Primary & secondary contacts go into voluntary 14 days. If they show symptoms they get tested.

    This applies to all those who came into contact with those 800k infected. Which makes me wonder how many presently you have in quarantine around the country. Must be well over a million.

    Setting up surveillance networks isn't that difficult. I know you will get on it with a war footing.

    For all the rave reviews the Koreans got, what you said about them did not apply for the first month. They saw their cases rising exponentially. Had they learned from SARS that would not have happened.

    Now, they did have a super spreader that threw their contact tracing out the window, so they quarantined areas with the most affected.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    The US has had 850,000 confirmed cases, the number of tests being done per day has plateaued, with 20% of tests consistently coming back positive. To an epidemiologist, this implies that millions have likely been infected, and that it's still spreading at a relatively high rate. It seems very likely that the true number of infections have been severely undercounted, and the number of deaths at least moderately undercounted.
    Deaths aren't being under counted in the US. I think they are being over counted because CDC recently said no need to test the dead.

    The died of or with C19 debate

    The way deaths are counted varies between countries leading to some with higher deaths than others. It ain't the disease its the counting method.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    That Australia has returned one positive for 60 tests is a very good thing, and that the US returns one positive for every 5.3 tests is extremely bad, from an epidemiological standpoint.

    That the US total test rate per capita eventually caught up to South Koreas is just a matter of time having elapsed, and in no way should be interpreted or construed that the situations in each country are even remotely similar.
    You have the test capacity now, what do you think your positivity rate will be in a months time ? still 5 to 1 or more.

    That the Aussies would test at the rate they currently are boggles the mind. 60 people to find just one. That's a lot of tests.

    Notice that the Koreans have a similar rate yet they have not ramped up testing. They've been at a constant rate now for a while.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Apr 20, at 09:38.

  9. #924
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Well a couple of things about such a plan. How do you know you have found a 'hotspot'? I mean say I have a town of 1000people, how many must test positive for it to be 'barricaded'. So say I test 20 people and all are positive should I conclude that it is a 'hotspot' as I have tested 2% and have a 100% infection rate? But the other 98% may all be negative... Or of course the first 2% could be negative and the other 98% positive. So in order to properly ascertain what is a 'hotspot' and what is not it seems the more you test the more accurate you projection becomes.
    You do a random sample, then come back later and do it again.

    Did the number of infected remain the same , double in that time, or go higher still. Doubling time tells you the rate of spread. If it gets shorter then infections are rising. If it gets longer then its abating.

    How you define a hotspot is arbitrary and up to your health officials. They decide what the magic number of infected has to be to get the designation.

    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Second you do not 'barricade' the town or region but stop the people mixing. Barricading the town is a bit like what they did on those cruise ships where it spread like wildfire.
    I'm speaking for a densely populated city point of view.

    A town of a 1000 is low density. If they don't travel around much the spread isn't going further very quickly as it would in a city. It will remain contained in that town.

    If people comply with social distancing and the way you gauge that is the doubling time then no need for a barricade.

    In a city it only takes a few not to comply for things to spread and get out of control.

    Keep in mind just because one tests negative today does not mean will not get infected tomorrow.

    So to test increasingly large numbers of people and having to keep at it for however long it takes until you find no new cases in the designated area for two incubation periods. Which is 28 days. That is when the outbreak can be declared ended for that area.

    ..becomes cost ineffective in the long run.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Apr 20, at 09:36.

  10. #925
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It means your test rate presently is sufficiently high, yes ?
    The testing rate is nowhere near enough. We had uncontrolled spread with millions infected, with a current case load that is hundreds of times higher than the number of cases South Korea ever had. Given the situation got so much proportionately worse, proportionately greater measures need to be taken.

    Are you trolling on purpose?

    A couple years ago I remember you saying you preferred sources like NPR and Reuters, no opinion, just dry, fact-based journalism. Lately I've seen you sourcing material and arguments from bizarre alt-right disinformation outlets and personalities like Steve Bannon.

    I don't really have the time or patience to further engage with you. You seem to be playing rope-a-dope throwing around baffling bullshit.
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  11. #926
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    The testing rate is nowhere near enough. We had uncontrolled spread with millions infected, with a current case load that is hundreds of times higher than the number of cases South Korea ever had. Given the situation got so much proportionately worse, proportionately greater measures need to be taken.
    How about you tell me what it should be then and the basis ?

    How long it should go on for

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Are you trolling on purpose?
    Trying to counter opposition nonsense means i'm trolling ?


    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    A couple years ago I remember you saying you preferred sources like NPR and Reuters, no opinion, just dry, fact-based journalism. Lately I've seen you sourcing material and arguments from bizarre alt-right disinformation outlets and personalities like Steve Bannon.
    I tend to follow pro govt supporters. Ignore the opposition.

    Bannon does a great job. Positive, that's what i want.

    Where are the govt supporters ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Apr 20, at 10:43.

  12. #927
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Maybe we should let the white nationalist Bible-banging anti-vaxxers gather in large crowds and shout all over each other. Maybe we should let them do us all a service by culling the herd, so long as they agree to stay in that crowd and not infect the rest of us.

    Maybe Darwin’s at work, and we’ll get a nice boost for science in the November election.
    In America this is a virus that disporportionately kills minorities, the poor, people with pre-existing health conditions & old people. So, the categories of people these right wing activists & their supporters consider 'disposable' has expanded by one to include old people. If this virus targeted foetuses & maybe affluent white men they would be demanding and enforcing martial law. Everyone else can apparently just die.
    Last edited by Bigfella; 23 Apr 20, at 15:41.


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  13. #928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Are you trolling on purpose?

    A couple years ago I remember you saying you preferred sources like NPR and Reuters, no opinion, just dry, fact-based journalism. Lately I've seen you sourcing material and arguments from bizarre alt-right disinformation outlets and personalities like Steve Bannon.

    I don't really have the time or patience to further engage with you. You seem to be playing rope-a-dope throwing around baffling bullshit.
    We all get there eventually. Just a matter of when. Welcome to the club.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  14. #929
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Opinion polls do not generally have a mortality rate.
    Exactly what I was going to post.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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  15. #930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I tend to follow pro govt supporters. Ignore the opposition.

    Bannon does a great job. Positive, that's what i want.

    Where are the govt supporters ?
    Intriguing...so you only follow news sources which validate the parties in power?
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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