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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Wife's hospital is now over-full and she spends the beginning hour of every shift processing hospice orders for people who are not going to make it. I think it was 2 weeks ago that her hospital was empty.

    Don't really have a comment besides that. Just seemed like something that should be shared.
    My wife works in a nursing home up the street from my office. Space for 20 long term and 20 rehab patients. Rehab patients not coming in as much now. She was complaining to me Saturday night that while they use gloves the admin would not allow masks. Said the masks would scare the patients. Also on Saturday a Care Center, in Orinda 14 miles away, has 27 patients and staff testing positive. My wife was getting really upset and then a text from a fellow coworker in a mask. Admin has changed their tune. She is still working while I am dead in the water. Some practices, in ancillary fields outside MDs, are going to loose their practices for sure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    I certainly hope not. however, I note that our daily new case load is -still- accelerating (up to 34K cases in one day), and we still don't have a national lockdown.

    accordingly, death rate is still accelerating too. 1330 deaths on 4 April, and that group got the disease back when caseload was only at 24,192...bad.
    Is that really case though? Two weeks ago, the US was way behind in its testing, and the true number of cases may already have been around a 100 K.

    https://gizmodo.com/real-number-of-u...igh-1842411303

    Even with 1.7 million tests completed as of today, there were still stories of many people going untested with flu like symptoms as recently as a few days ago.
    Last edited by InExile; 06 Apr 20, at 05:25.

  3. #618
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    DE,

    that's not quite a jump at all because growth rates are exponential. remember, there's a 2-week lag for COVID to progress to completion. 2 weeks ago, we had 24,000 cases.

    now, we're at 336,000 cases. we won't see the deaths resulting from these infections until 2 weeks from now.
    Depends how you disrupt the infection chains going forward.

    What restrictions were in place two weeks ago compared to today ?

    Didn't Trump announce recently that no gatherings larger than 10 would be allowed and that is for the entire country. Also US now recommends wearing masks. That's disrupting the chain.

    So where are these extra cases going to come from

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    they can try to isolate it, but that slows down the speed, not stop it. "doing a Taiwan" is not really possible because Hubei ain't an island.

    re: the US, it's actually closer to 1/3, not 1/2 from NY. IE, you can't just isolate NY and stop the virus-- it's far too late for that. NY is about to go into its highest mortality phase this coming week.
    I should say they did a Taiwan on Wuhan. Hubei was a second containment ring.

    Staten Island, Long Island, Manhattan, Queens, Bronx, Brooklyn are all islands

    Slowing it down implies flattening the curve. China smashed the curve. That's how they reduced spread out from Wuhan.

    That means a ring around NYC & Westchester. No people go in or out.

    Maybe another further out.

    Slowing it down only drags it out longer. Have to smash the curve.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Apr 20, at 06:25.

  4. #619
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    In a first, Bronx zoo tiger 'Nadia' tests positive for Covid-19, develops dry cough, loss of appetite

    Pretty sure POTUS infected it. Reasons:

    #1. Trump being Trump
    #2. Nadia's a girl
    Last edited by Oracle; 06 Apr 20, at 12:17.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  5. #620
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    inexile,

    Even with 1.7 million tests completed as of today, there were still stories of many people going untested with flu like symptoms as recently as a few days ago.
    enough testing has been done to demonstrate that there's not a huge reservoir of unknown cases out there. most people whom test, and this is a population that is -biased- towards the sick, come up negative.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  6. #621
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    DE,

    Depends how you disrupt the infection chains going forward.

    What restrictions were in place two weeks ago compared to today ?

    Didn't Trump announce recently that no gatherings larger than 10 would be allowed and that is for the entire country. Also US now recommends wearing masks. That's disrupting the chain.

    So where are these extra cases going to come from
    Trump's announcements have no teeth; at best, they serve to persuade recalcitrant GOP governors like DeSantis to take measures.

    the Governors have much more power to implement restriction measures. unfortunately, it's not uniform. some places have a "religious exemption" to big group gatherings.

    so yes, what the US has done thus far will certainly slow down the overall rate of growth. however, the US is -still- on the upward slope for the time being; there is a lag there as well.

    That means a ring around NYC & Westchester. No people go in or out.

    Maybe another further out.

    Slowing it down only drags it out longer. Have to smash the curve.
    not going to happen-- far too many legal issues, and it's already too late for that to be effective.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  7. #622
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    Trump stopped Fauci from answering a question about the anti-malaria drug Trump is hyping despite it being unproven against the coronavirus

    President Donald Trump on Sunday told reporters he wasn't a doctor as he promoted the use of hydroxychloroquine, a drug used for malaria or lupus, to treat COVID-19 patients. But when Dr. Anthony Fauci was asked for his opinion, Trump would not let him speak.

    At a White House press briefing on Sunday night, Trump repeatedly spoke about using the drug on COVID-19 patients despite little clinical evidence that the pills are effective against it. He told reporters he backed the drug as he said: "I'm not a doctor. I have common sense."

    The US government has stockpiled 29 million hydroxychloroquine pills, and Trump said it was a good option for treatment in lieu of a vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine is among numerous drugs researchers are testing as COVID-19 treatments.

    "I'm trying to save lives," Trump said. "I want them to try it, and it may work and it may not work." Several times, he rhetorically asked: "What do you have to lose?"

    But when a reporter at the briefing asked Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what he thought, Trump did not let him speak.

    "He answered that question 15 times," Trump said, cutting the reporter off, before the press conference moved on. Fauci never answered.

    Fauci took the lectern late in the conference and hadn't spoken before the reporters began asking questions.

    Hydroxychloroquine, specifically the way US officials should characterize it, was said to be at the center of a confrontation within the White House coronavirus task force at a meeting on Saturday.

    Citing an unnamed source, Axios reported that Trump's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, who has been trying to source the drug, told the task force that overseas studies showed the drug had "clear therapeutic efficacy."

    Fauci, a member of the task force, disagreed and said there was only anecdotal evidence, according to Axios. Navarro, an economist, reportedly pointed to a stack of documents he had brought to the meeting and told Fauci, "That's science, not anecdote."

    The conversation apparently grew heated before the leading participants ultimately agreed that "the administration's public stance should be that the decision to use the drug is between doctors and patients," according to Axios.
    _______________

    And the desperate Orwellian nightmare continues.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  8. #623
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    DE,

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Depends how you disrupt the infection chains going forward.

    What restrictions were in place two weeks ago compared to today ?

    Didn't Trump announce recently that no gatherings larger than 10 would be allowed and that is for the entire country. Also US now recommends wearing masks. That's disrupting the chain.

    So where are these extra cases going to come from?

    Places like here....https://abc3340.com/news/coronavirus...rch-gatherings


    As Astralis said, the 10 is an advisory. We have seen large numbers of people this past weekend ignoring this advice and gathering at church.

    And with this being Holy Week, the most holy week on the Christian calendar, there is going to continue to be gatherings which place people at risk of exposure and therefore, continue the spread.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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  9. #624
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    the President being a medical huckster on hydroxychloroquine is par for course for someone who's talking about a "light at the end of the tunnel" when Birx, Fauci, and Surgeon General Adams are all saying this week is going to be ugly beyond words.

    and the thing is, even this week won't be the worse of it. most projections for the US show that peak will only hit late April/early May.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  10. #625
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    Let's just recap our brave leader's response to COVID-19, shall we?

    Jan 3rd - Trump warned via intel brief of COVID-19
    Jan 8th - First CDC warning
    Jan 9th - Trump campaign rally
    Jan 14th - Trump campaign rally
    Jan 18th - Trump golfs
    Jan 19th - Trump golfs
    Jan 20th - first case of corona virus in the US, Washington State.
    Jan 22nd - “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
    Jan 28th - Trump campaign rally
    Jan 30th - Trump campaign rally
    Feb 1st - Trump golfs
    Feb 2nd - “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China."
    Feb 10th - Trump campaign rally
    Feb 12th - Dow Jones closes at an all time high of 29,551.42
    Feb 15h - Trump golfs
    Feb 19th - Trump campaign rally
    Feb 20th - Trump campaign rally
    Feb 21st - Trump campaign rally
    Feb 24th - “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
    Feb 25h - “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
    Feb 25h - “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
    Feb 26th - “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
    Feb 26th - “We're going very substantially down, not up.” Also "This is a flu. This is like a flu"; "Now, you treat this like a flu"; "It's a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."
    February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
    Feb 28th - “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
    Feb 28th - Trump campaign rally. “This is their new hoax.”
    March 2nd - “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
    March 2nd - “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
    March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
    March 5th - “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
    March 5th - “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
    March 6th - “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
    March 6th - “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
    March 6th - “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
    March 6th - “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
    March 7th - Trump golfs
    March 8th - Trump golfs
    March 8th - “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
    March 9th - “This blindsided the world.”
    March 13th - [Declared state of emergency]
    March 17th - “This is a pandemic,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”
    March 18th - "It’s not racist at all. No. Not at all. It comes from China. That’s why. It comes from China. I want to be accurate."
    March 23th- Dow Jones closes at 18,591.93
    March 25th - 3.3 million Americans file for unemployment.
    March 30th - Dow Jones closes at 21,917.16
    April 4th - 6.6 million Americans file for unemployment. 300,000 infected with COVID-19, 1300 deaths in one day.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  11. #626
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    called it...total POS.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/polit...dly/index.html

    The Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly blasted the now ousted commander of the USS Theodore Roosevelt as "stupid" in an address to the ship's crew Monday morning, in remarks obtained by CNN.

    Modly told the crew that their former commander, Capt. Brett Crozier, was either "too naive or too stupid" to be in command or that he intentionally leaked to the media a memo in which he warned about coronavirus spreading aboard the aircraft carrier and urged action to save his sailors.

    The acting secretary accused Crozier of committing a "betrayal" and creating a "big controversy" in Washington by disseminating the warning so widely.

    "It was a betrayal. And I can tell you one other thing: because he did that he put it in the public's forum and it is now a big controversy in Washington, DC,"
    Modly said, according to a transcript of remarks Modly made to the crew, copies of which have been provided to CNN by multiple Navy officials.

    In remarks that were piped over the vessel's PA system, Modly suggested Crozier leaked the memo on purpose or was "too naive or too stupid" to be in command if he didn't think that sending it to over 20 people would not result in it getting out to the public.

    "If he didn't think, in my opinion, that this information wasn't going to get out to the public, in this day and information age that we live in, then he was either A, too naïve or too stupid to be a commanding officer of a ship like this," Modly said. "The alternative is that he did this on purpose."

    Modly went on to say it was a "betrayal of trust, with me, with his chain of command."

    ...

    Crozier's popularity with the ship's crew was on display in videos showing sailors giving him a warm and loud send off, clapping and chanting his name as he left the ship for the final time. Modly acknowledged Crozier's popularity with the crew in his remarks to the sailors. "I cannot control or attempt to change whatever anger you have with me for relieving your beloved CO," Modly said, using the slang for commanding officer. "I understand you may be angry with me for the rest of your lives."

    ====

    EDIT: Transcript of Modly's (spit) remarks to the crew here.
    Last edited by astralis; 06 Apr 20, at 17:16.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  12. #627
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Trump stopped Fauci from answering a question about the anti-malaria drug Trump is hyping despite it being unproven against the coronavirus

    President Donald Trump on Sunday told reporters he wasn't a doctor as he promoted the use of hydroxychloroquine, a drug used for malaria or lupus, to treat COVID-19 patients. But when Dr. Anthony Fauci was asked for his opinion, Trump would not let him speak.

    At a White House press briefing on Sunday night, Trump repeatedly spoke about using the drug on COVID-19 patients despite little clinical evidence that the pills are effective against it. He told reporters he backed the drug as he said: "I'm not a doctor. I have common sense."

    The US government has stockpiled 29 million hydroxychloroquine pills, and Trump said it was a good option for treatment in lieu of a vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine is among numerous drugs researchers are testing as COVID-19 treatments.

    "I'm trying to save lives," Trump said. "I want them to try it, and it may work and it may not work." Several times, he rhetorically asked: "What do you have to lose?"

    But when a reporter at the briefing asked Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what he thought, Trump did not let him speak.

    "He answered that question 15 times," Trump said, cutting the reporter off, before the press conference moved on. Fauci never answered.

    Fauci took the lectern late in the conference and hadn't spoken before the reporters began asking questions.

    Hydroxychloroquine, specifically the way US officials should characterize it, was said to be at the center of a confrontation within the White House coronavirus task force at a meeting on Saturday.

    Citing an unnamed source, Axios reported that Trump's top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, who has been trying to source the drug, told the task force that overseas studies showed the drug had "clear therapeutic efficacy."

    Fauci, a member of the task force, disagreed and said there was only anecdotal evidence, according to Axios. Navarro, an economist, reportedly pointed to a stack of documents he had brought to the meeting and told Fauci, "That's science, not anecdote."

    The conversation apparently grew heated before the leading participants ultimately agreed that "the administration's public stance should be that the decision to use the drug is between doctors and patients," according to Axios.
    _______________

    And the desperate Orwellian nightmare continues.
    Am with Trump here, avoid these unnecessary arguments and deal with bigger things.

    Go ask the front line fighters in NYC & Seattle what they think about hydroxychloroquine. Are they taking it ? are they also prescribing it for their families. What for.

    All anecdotal which no one disputes but there isn't time to do RCT's right now. To get FDA clearance. It's making do with what you have and getting on with it. And if it saves lives of your front line fighters then great.

    The downside is people who also need that drug for other ailments will have a harder time getting it.

    Trump is trying to get some factory going which closed down in West Virginia that made that drug for the world in the good old days.

    There is another one callled rendesavir by Gilead science, which has shown promise in therapeutic treatments.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Apr 20, at 17:24.

  13. #628
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    not Trump's place to advocate for unproven drugs with serious side effects. there's already reports of people poisoning themselves because they don't know any better.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    There is a difference between letting someone die and committing murder, at the very least unintentional manslaughter.

  15. #630
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    DE,



    Trump's announcements have no teeth; at best, they serve to persuade recalcitrant GOP governors like DeSantis to take measures.

    the Governors have much more power to implement restriction measures. unfortunately, it's not uniform. some places have a "religious exemption" to big group gatherings.
    Fair point and you did mention this earlier. I tend to forget the US Federal system allows a certain degree of autonomy to the states in these matters. It will be a mixed bag. At best Trump can make recommendations here.

    Half measures are inadequate. They make a bad situation worse.

    Nobody wants to be that mayor of St.Louis from 1918 : (

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    so yes, what the US has done thus far will certainly slow down the overall rate of growth. however, the US is -still- on the upward slope for the time being; there is a lag there as well.
    This is the case for a number of other countries as well. What will matter here is the doubling time. Whether that can be extended. Accounting ofc for your increased rate of testing.


    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    not going to happen-- far too many legal issues, and it's already too late for that to be effective.
    How long for are you going to allow flights out of NYC to arrive in your state or any other state for that matter ?

    You are importing cases here. What for. Or at least do some sort of screening.

    The next up and coming clusters appear to be New Orleans & Detroit.

    Half the emergency workers in New Orleans are in quarantine because they did not take adequate precautions earlier.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Apr 20, at 18:06.

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