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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #436
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    I see total deaths by region and total for the US but I don't see a daily breakdown. 2nd column from the right?

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    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    How about using the Chinese stats since they are even more mature? Or let's use real stats that we can sink out teeth into. The H1N1 pandemic in the US in 2009. 12,000 dead. American apples to American apples comparison.

    No, it doesn't. 80% of COVID-19 infected recover with no damage using nothing more than over the counter medications ... or chicken soup. Again, the difference between influenza and COVID-19 is the presence of anti-viral medication. Once anti-viral medication fails, then the treatment and damage between the two are identicle. Anti-biotics and ventilators to help the body fight off the 2ndary infection. The treatment are identicle post anti-viral medication failure.

    For most of the poor world, the treatment for both influenza and COVID-19 would be identicle. Bedrest. The young and strong will live. The old and weak will die. And no one will record what kills wom.
    What I know. Standard TX for bacterial pneumonia is antibiotics. Standard TX for viral pneumonia is to try antivirals and keep antibiotics in your back pocket for any secondary infections that might piggyback behind the virus. Flu, for most people is upper respiratory. Covid-19 is also upper respiratory but it has been noted that in moderate to severe cases it has made it's way down to the lower regions of the lungs where the alveoli are. If and when inflammatory damage occurs here is when you may need a ventilator as inflammatory debris clogs the air sacks. The question here is what long term damage could be for those who recover and are discharged from the hospital. In a quick early survey (March 16) of 121 US patients admitted to the ICU 7% over 80, 46% between 65-84, 36% between 45-64, and 12% between 20-44. Another small observation out of some discharged Hong Kong patients was that they suffered a 20-30% decline in lung function. Obviously much more will be learned about the long term damage in regards to all those who end up discharged from a hospital over the next few years. If long term lung damage then they will face possible long term medical care/bills for the remainder of their lives.

    A short article on exactly how the immune system responded for a woman in Australia who had arrived from Wuhan and recovered fairly quickly

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...irus-in-3-days

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    DOR, DE,

    https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html

    Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure
    2020-03-27Email storyComment on this storySharePrint story
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    Workers at the Hankou Funeral Home in the central Chinese city of Wuhan undergo disinfection, March 27, 2020.
    Workers at the Hankou Funeral Home in the central Chinese city of Wuhan undergo disinfection, March 27, 2020.
    Reuters
    As authorities lifted a two-month coronavirus lockdown in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, residents said they were growing increasingly skeptical that the figure of some 2,500 deaths in the city to date was accurate.

    Since the start of the week, seven large funeral homes in Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains of around 500 people to their families every day, suggesting that far more people died than ever made the official statistics.

    "It can't be right ... because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?" an Wuhan resident surnamed Zhang told RFA on Friday.

    "They started distributing ashes and starting interment ceremonies on
    Monday," he said.

    Seven funeral homes currently serve Wuhan -- a huge conurbation of three cities: Hankou, Wuchang and Hanyang.

    Social media users have been doing some basic math to figure out their daily capacity, while the news website Caixin.com reported that 5,000 urns had been delivered by a supplier to the Hankou Funeral Home in one day alone -- double the official number of deaths.

    Some social media posts have estimated that all seven funeral homes in Wuhan are handing out 3,500 urns every day in total.

    Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23.

    Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time.

    Various calculations

    Another popular estimate is based on the cremation capacity of the funeral homes, which run a total of 84 furnaces with a capacity over 24 hours of 1,560 urns city-wide, assuming that one cremation takes one hour.

    This calculation results in an estimated 46,800 deaths.

    A resident of Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, said most people there now believe that more than 40,000 people died in the city before and during the lockdown.

    "Maybe the authorities are gradually releasing the real figures, intentionally or unintentionally, so that people will gradually come to accept the reality," the resident, who gave only his surname Mao, said.

    A source close to the provincial civil affairs bureau said many people had died at home, without being diagnosed with, or treated for, COVID-19.

    The source said any talk of the true number of deaths in Wuhan was very sensitive, but that the authorities do likely know the real figure.

    "Every funeral home reports data on cremations directly to the authorities twice daily," the source said. "This means that each funeral home only knows how many cremations it has conducted, but not the situation at the other funeral homes."

    The source said Wuhan saw 28,000 cremations in the space of a single month, suggesting that the online estimates over a two-and-a-half month period weren't excessive.

    Wuhan resident Sun Linan said relatives of those who died are now forming long lines outside funeral homes to collect their loved ones' ashes.

    "It has already begun," Sun said on Thursday. "There were people lining up in Biandanshan Cemetery yesterday, and a lot of people forming lines today at Hankou Funeral Home."

    Hush money

    Wuhan resident Chen Yaohui told RFA that city officials have been handing out 3,000 yuan in "funeral allowances" to the families of the dead in exchange for their silence.

    "There have been a lot of funerals in the past few days, and the authorities are handing out 3,000 yuan in hush money to families who get their loved ones' remains laid to rest ahead of Qing Ming," he said, in a reference to the traditional grave tending festival on April 5.

    "It's to stop them keening [a traditional expression of grief]; nobody's allowed to keen after Qing Ming has passed," Chen said.

    The son of deceased COVID-10 patient Hu Aizhen said he had been told to collect his mother's ashes by the local neighborhood committee.

    "The local committee told me they are now handling funerals, but I don't want to do it right now," the man, surnamed Ding, told RFA.

    "There are too many people doing it right now."

    Chen said nobody in the city believes the official death toll.

    "The official number of deaths was 2,500 people ... but before the epidemic began, the city's crematoriums typically cremated around 220 people a day," he said.

    "But during the epidemic, they transferred cremation workers from around China to Wuhan keep cremate bodies around the clock," he said.

    A resident surnamed Gao said the city's seven crematoriums should have a capacity of around 2,000 bodies a day if they worked around the clock.

    "Anyone looking at that figure will realize, anyone with any ability to think," Gao said. "What are they talking about [2,535] people?"

    "Seven crematoriums could get through more than that [in a single day]."
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  5. #440
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I see total deaths by region and total for the US but I don't see a daily breakdown. 2nd column from the right?
    The cumulative number of deaths reported is so far today is over 700 more than the cumulative reported from the day before. The last update from today being 6:28PM ET.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I see total deaths by region and total for the US but I don't see a daily breakdown. 2nd column from the right?
    I don't see daily either just total and have 525 for yesterday off the meter I posted days ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    Eric, this also can't be right. Even 20,000 bodies would need loads of trucks. You will need workers day and night loading bodies onto trucks. You might be able to hide 20,000 urns but 20,000 bodies? Never mind 40,000 bodies. That kind of load you will have bodies waiting on the streets. I cannot explain the crematories going 24/7 for weeks on end but that also raises the question, where are the bodies waiting to be creamated?

  8. #443
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    Trump’s Coronavirus Disinformation Campaign Isn’t Working: Poll
    The president has presented an overly rosy picture about how the fight against the virus is going. A new poll suggests the public isn’t buying it.

    A clear majority of the American public, including self-identified Republicans, do not believe the disinformation that President Donald Trump keeps pushing around the spread of coronavirus. And even members of the president’s own party are skeptical of his argument that getting the country back to work needs to be as prioritized as public safety measures.

    A new survey conducted by Ipsos exclusively for The Daily Beast provides some of the clearest evidence to date that the president’s attempts to paint a rosy picture about the coronavirus’ spread throughout the country are not resonating beyond a small segment of the populace with a small exception for those who say they’re getting their information from Fox News.

    • A full 73 percent of respondents, including 75 percent of Republicans, said that it was not true that “anyone who wants to get tested [for the virus] can get tested.” Just 17 percent said it was true.
    • Only 20 percent of the public, and just 25 percent of Republicans, said that they believed a vaccine will be available soon. Forty-two percent said that was false and 38 percent said they did not know.
    • Fifty-one percent of respondents, including a plurality or Republicans (46 percent), said it was false that the virus would go away on its own in warm weather, while just 13 percent said that was true.
    • And 61 percent of respondents said that they believed COVID-19 was more deadly than the flu; with 22 percent saying it was about the same and 11 percent saying they believed it was less deadly.


    The question that seemed to generate the most confusion was on whether the Federal Drug Administration had “approved anti-malaria drugs to treat the virus.”

    But even then, 45 percent of respondents correctly identified that statement as false, 22 percent said it was true and 33 percent said they did not know.

    Collectively, the results present a portrait of a public that is sober minded about the coronavirus and unpersuaded by talk that life could return to normalcy soon. Over the past few weeks, Trump has suggested that the spread of coronavirus would abate as the temperature warmed. He’s repeatedly insisted that those who want a test can get one, against overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He’s downplayed the lethality of it by comparing it to the flu. He’s talked about a vaccine hitting the markets in weeks, if not months, and pushed hydroxychloroquine as a therapy for coronavirus, despite his own medical experts warning that there is nothing more than anecdotal data suggesting it could work.

    That Trump has had difficulty selling the public on these ideas suggests that he is operating from a trust deficit as he encounters the most existential challenge of his presidency to date. Though self-identified Fox News viewers were more likely to believe these claims than those who got their information from local news, national news or other cable channels, even they were skeptical of the president’s posture. Just 20 percent of those who watched the Trump-supportive cable channel said they believed anyone could get a test if they wanted to; just 31 percent said a vaccine would be available soon; and just 15 percent said the virus would go away in the warm weather. However, 44 percent of those who said they were getting their information from Fox News said that they believed the FDA had approved anti-malaria drugs to treat COVID-19, compared to 34 percent who said that was false.

    Fox News viewers were evenly split when it came to Trump’s most recent focus: getting American businesses back up and running on an expedited timeline even if it were to involve public health risk. Forty-seven percent of Fox News viewers said they agreed with the sentiment while 50 percent said they did not.

    But beyond that, the public was largely in favor of keeping public safety measures in place, even if it meant delaying a return to economic activity. Just 26 percent of respondents said that they agreed that “getting people back to work is more important than social distancing” while 69 percent said they disagreed. Those numbers were similar when isolating just for Republicans, with 57 percent disagreeing and 39 percent agreeing.

    Though the public may not be with him on his descriptions of and prescriptions for the coronavirus crisis, Trump has earned relatively positive views for his handling of the pandemic. Public opinion polls have consistently shown more people approving of the job he’s doing than disapproving. The Ipsos survey suggests one potential explanation as to why: self-identified Independents were relatively comfortable with the president’s push to start focusing on the economy.

    The survey found that 46 percent of Independents believed that the “cost to slow the spread of COVID-19 is too much for our economy to bear” compared to 39 percent who said they disagreed. Meanwhile, 39 percent of Independents said “getting people back to work is more important than social distancing”—the same percentage as for Republicans. A solid chunk of Independents (31 percent) even said that they believed “The media and Democrats are overstating the COVID-19 threat in order to damage Donald Trump’s presidency.”
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    Eric, this also can't be right. Even 20,000 bodies would need loads of trucks. You will need workers day and night loading bodies onto trucks. You might be able to hide 20,000 urns but 20,000 bodies? Never mind 40,000 bodies. That kind of load you will have bodies waiting on the streets. I cannot explain the crematories going 24/7 for weeks on end but that also raises the question, where are the bodies waiting to be creamated?
    frankly it's all been a big unknown. OTOH, we -did- have pictures of those trucks, and stories of the bodies waiting for cremation, in Italy -- even when their death toll was approximately that of the Chinese figures.

    nothing equivalent for China, so i'm guessing a lot was swept under the State Secrets rug.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  10. #445
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Eric, this also can't be right. Even 20,000 bodies would need loads of trucks. You will need workers day and night loading bodies onto trucks. You might be able to hide 20,000 urns but 20,000 bodies? Never mind 40,000 bodies. That kind of load you will have bodies waiting on the streets. I cannot explain the crematories going 24/7 for weeks on end but that also raises the question, where are the bodies waiting to be creamated?
    Spoiler!


    Grrr....Never mind !!!

    But as you said the numbers even 20k deaths is too high

    20k deaths at 1% fatality means 2 million infected

    It takes 17 days to die after being infected in that time there are three doublings. 2 - 4 - 8 - 16 million

    Oops, we've exceeded Wuhan's population.

    Instead if you go with 10k dead that means 8 million in Wuhan already infected. 8 out of 11 million infected already ? hmm

    Rest of Hubei added 17k infected to the total from Wuhan but that article is talking about funeral urns in Wuhan alone.

    Anyway, this number is lower than the estimate i heard some days back about cell phone accounts going dead in China to the tune of around 8 million between Jan & Feb. People then presuming at least as many dead in the country which is crazy.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Mar 20, at 21:02.

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    To be like Italy on Mar 19 means, US needs to have 590 per million infected for a total of nearly 200k infected. You really think cases in the US will that high in 10 days ?

    To be like S.Korea then you have 161 per million infected for a total of 51k.
    I just wanted to follow up on this.

    at 9 PM EDT, the US is currently at ~142K. we'll likely hit 200K tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    DE,



    I just wanted to follow up on this.

    at 9 PM EDT, the US is currently at ~142K. we'll likely hit 200K tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
    It means we have to change the way we think about this.

    Earlier post here

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    at 9 PM EDT, the US is currently at ~142K. we'll likely hit 200K tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
    2009 H1N1 Pandemic, 66 million Americans infected. We, as in you and me, have been through worst.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Just as we thought US could become like Italy. Italy does an Italy again.

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    The previous post of mine referred to Italy at 590 per million as of Mar 19, they are now at 1,406 per million as of Mar 28 with US at 316 per million

    So Italy presently has it nearly five times more per million than the US.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Mar 20, at 06:20.

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    2009 H1N1 Pandemic, 66 million Americans infected. We, as in you and me, have been through worst.
    the level of lethality is different. the reports coming from our hospitals as well as the international response have been significantly different. hell, the -morgues- have been saying different things. 2009 didn't cause Italians to leave corpses in rooms for days because the morgues and crematories were full!

    it's not 1918, yes. but it's not 2009, either.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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