Page 3 of 86 FirstFirst 123456789101112 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 1277

Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
    Join Date
    26 Aug 06
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,634
    Ordinary flu infected 40 million people last year and killed 30-60k (don't really know how many, impossible to know either number exactly).
    Even at .7% death rate, which is, I think, the South Korean estimate, you only need 850k people to contract it.

    Will we get to 850k? Probably. Singapore seems to have done a good job of controlling it, China apparently controlled it by shutting down an area more populated than the entire West Coast of the US and plunging their economy into insta-depression. Italy's cases are out-of-control. We're doing an even worse job than Italy, so we might have cases double every 7 days, which means we would hit 1 million infected by Memorial Day, maybe Father's Day if we're lucky.

    However, don't you worry. If it's actually THAT bad, we'll find out next month when ICUs hit capacity, hospitals run out of employees, and we call out the National Guard to enforce the Seattle quarantine.

    Hopefully warm weather, limited quarantine, and obsessive hand-washing limits the spread so we can ride out this season and prepare for 2020-2021. After that, it's going to die out and just become an endemic childhood disease with sporadic outbreaks.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 08 Mar 20, at 04:35.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  2. #32
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    4,094
    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Plans View Post
    170 global coronavirus deaths total as of thursday, not what you call an epidemic at any measure.

    Smallpox (1900-2000) 300,000,000 deaths worldwide
    Plague (middle ages) 10,000,000 deaths
    Spanish Flu (1918) 70,000 deaths
    May want to check those numbers on the Spanish flu as you are not even close to the worldwide estimate. With an estimated 500 million infected you could start there and it came in two waves with the second wave very deadly.

  3. #33
    Global Moderator
    Comrade Commissar
    TopHatter's Avatar
    Join Date
    03 Sep 03
    Posts
    17,384
    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post

    Hopefully warm weather, limited quarantine, and obsessive hand-washing limits the spread so we can ride out this season and prepare for 2020-2021. After that, it's going to die out and just become an endemic childhood disease with sporadic outbreaks.
    I'm hoping that's exactly what happens: People take the (factual) warnings and advisories seriously, adopt the needed changes and precautions and we don't have a Spanish Flu Part Deux.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  4. #34
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    4,094
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Yeah, i don't know many people that are into canned food. It assumes there will be no electricity or gas.
    My wife is very much into canned fish being Filipina and it is a must have. Me, without power, then I can handle cans of pork and beans, kidney beans and black beans. Throw in some cans of diced tomatoes and I am happy. Cans of tomatoes, from whole to diced to puree to sauce are an absolute must and being acidic can store a long time.

  5. #35
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
    Join Date
    26 Aug 06
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,634
    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    I'm hoping that's exactly what happens: People take the (factual) warnings and advisories seriously, adopt the needed changes and precautions and we don't have a Spanish Flu Part Deux.
    I really hope so. I tell everyone in person, through text, and on Facebook to take this one seriously, because the numbers look really bad if we get don't take it seriously and get unlucky. Everyone thinks it is "just the flu." My wife works in a hospital and they have basically been told not to worry about it. It appears hospital management is taking it more seriously, because I see that they have sent out a whole bunch of "oh, by the way, we need you to attend training and fill out this totally standard N95 form that's totally not unusual at all, don't you worry," but I wonder if that's the right approach to take. If this DOES get bad, people are going to panic, and I'd rather them panic before it becomes an emergency than panicking WHILE it's an emergency.


    Also, I hate canned food and I hate frozen food, but we keep a bunch of canned veggies along with canned fruit and freeze-dried fruit, plus trail mix and the like. I am hoping to god the freezer keeps some of the meats long enough that I can eat them. Fresh food is much better. I had frozen veggies for dinner because I was lazy as hell, and they taste like absolute garbage.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 08 Mar 20, at 05:09.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  6. #36
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Nov 09
    Location
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Posts
    4,094
    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    I'm hoping that's exactly what happens: People take the (factual) warnings and advisories seriously, adopt the needed changes and precautions and we don't have a Spanish Flu Part Deux.
    Ok, now take a moment and think really hard about this. How many things do you touch in a day that are out in the public. When you really think about it you touch a lot of things that other people also touch. Next think hard about how many times you touch your face. Not putting your fingers in your mouth which is obvious but how many times you rub your eyes for instance. Into tear film, into the canaliculus, then into the nasolacrimal duct, and then the back of your throat. Bingo you are now infected and don't even know it yet.

    I was doing exams in a nursing home on Wednesday, where must people are health challenged, and was washing my hands every 10 minutes for six hours. My equipment was never handled unless it was by my right hand only. This morning someone came into my office, I had just washed my hands, and then kiddingly picked up my pen. Ah, you don't touch my pen which meant I had to wipe that down with my CaviCide.

    So did you wash your hands after going to the grocery store and using the pin pad for your payment? Any pin pad for that matter or sign your name with the store provided implement?

  7. #37
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    10,914
    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Ordinary flu infected 40 million people last year and killed 30-60k (don't really know how many, impossible to know either number exactly).
    Even at .7% death rate, which is, I think, the South Korean estimate, you only need 850k people to contract it.

    Will we get to 850k? Probably. Singapore seems to have done a good job of controlling it, China apparently controlled it by shutting down an area more populated than the entire West Coast of the US and plunging their economy into insta-depression. Italy's cases are out-of-control. We're doing an even worse job than Italy, so we might have cases double every 7 days, which means we would hit 1 million infected by Memorial Day, maybe Father's Day if we're lucky.
    That doubling every 6 days assumes no quarantine i think.

    After 1 month 32
    After 2 month 1000
    After 3 month 32,000
    After 4 month 1,000,000

    Clock starts in Jan for the US i think. Those test kits should be ready to go in a weeks time.

    Which means you're looking at 32k infected. Those people will be pulled out of circulation.

    China was around 80k at the 3 month point. I think that is because of the Chinese new year. So more people got together than would have normally. They had their new year AND THEN decided to quarantine. It also presumes patient 0 was infected in Dec. Could have happened a month prior.

    50k infected tops for the US, possibly lower before it starts to level out ?

    Can't say about deaths because it depends on the strain and which becomes more dominant. The 'S' mutation is less deadly. The 'L' is more deadly and also more infectious. With China the L has decreased due to the social distancing and the S is the more prevalent one.

    Older people with weakened immune systems due to pre-existing illness will be more vulnerable and children.

    Hopefully warm weather, limited quarantine, and obsessive hand-washing limits the spread so we can ride out this season and prepare for 2020-2021. After that, it's going to die out and just become an endemic childhood disease with sporadic outbreaks.
    Warm weather means more UV, only areas that get UV will kill the virus.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Mar 20, at 15:49.

  8. #38
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Mar 05
    Location
    Panama City Fl
    Posts
    9,082
    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Also, I hate canned food and I hate frozen food, but we keep a bunch of canned veggies along with canned fruit and freeze-dried fruit, plus trail mix and the like. I am hoping to god the freezer keeps some of the meats long enough that I can eat them. Fresh food is much better. I had frozen veggies for dinner because I was lazy as hell, and they taste like absolute garbage.
    We never buy frozen food from the market. Vacuum pack fresh veggies with the foodsaver then freeze them. The flavor is much better. And they take up less space

    Wait I take that back. I have a bag of frozen peas and corn. Its for when my knee acts up. Better than any ice pack you can get cause it contours to the joint.

    The key to keeping the food in your freezer cold longer when the power goes out is to keep it full. The less dead space in the freezer the longer things stay frozen. When you take the food out put something in its place. The less air you are trying to keep cold the longer stuff stays frozen
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  9. #39
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    12,061
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Yes i was waiting for hurricane survivor like you to advise how to better prepare.

    I was thinking US can keep number of infected to below a 1,000.

    Listening to Dr.John Campbell i think that won't be possible now.

    The reason the number of cases is low in the US is they have not ramped up testing yet.

    As of Mar 4 its still in the hundreds. That is because the test kits aren't ready yet.

    So when the tests ramp up so will the numbers of infected
    Basically we've found out that US preparedness isn't much better than a third-world country, even though we've had the better part of two months to prepare. CDC is behind the curve, our health authorities are severely fragmented, we've only been able to perform a couple thousand tests for the disease. We've got the shittiest sick leave policies of any first-world country, meaning zero days guaranteed by law, optional for employers to offer it or not. Most low-income workers have no sick leave in this country, which means a great many go to work sick, the alternative being getting evicted, then moving into your car or under a bridge. These sorts of jobs are the least likely to offer health insurance as well.

    I've read about people getting billed thousands or tens of thousands of dollars for government-ordered quarantine, which is a fucking joke.

    We have a president who asked if the flu vaccine provides any protection against the coronavirus. Maybe he thinks that pock mark on his upper arm vaccinated him against STDs too. Or maybe it really did cause autism, in his case.

    Personally, I'm not too worried about it, to be honest. Even though I have no health insurance, or any sort of compensation in the event of work slowing down. Luckily I've managed some savings. Wish I had enough to go vacation in Venice. I'd have the whole city all to myself.

    But I do think this epidemic is about to expose some serious structural flaws in the way we conduct our affairs in this country.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 08 Mar 20, at 11:24.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  10. #40
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    12,061
    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    I lost 3 freezers worth of food. The whole community lost food. Trash didn't get picked up for over a week. You really don't want to know what that smells like in 80deg weather
    Try walking across a bridge over the river in Chennai in 100 degree weather, when said river is essentially landfill and raw sewage. Worst thing I've ever smelt, I was dry heaving the entire way.

    I don't mean to put down other countries at all, but I'm sure DE has encountered smells far worse than trash not getting picked up for a week in an American subdivision.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 08 Mar 20, at 11:06.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  11. #41
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Aug 08
    Location
    UK/Europe
    Posts
    5,611
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    insurance, or any sort of compensation in the event of work slowing down. Luckily I've managed some savings.
    Not a good idea right now - particularly if you do not like stinky places.

  12. #42
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
    Join Date
    26 Aug 06
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,634
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That doubling every 6 days assumes no quarantine i think.

    After 1 month 32
    After 2 month 1000
    After 3 month 32,000
    After 4 month 1,000,000

    Clock starts in Jan for the US i think. Those test kits should be ready to go in a weeks time.

    Which means you're looking at 32k infected. Those people will be pulled out of circulation.

    China was around 80k at the 3 month point. I think that is because of the Chinese new year. So more people got together than would have normally. They had their new year AND THEN decided to quarantine. It also presumes patient 0 was infected in Dec. Could have happened a month prior.

    50k infected tops for the US, possibly lower before it starts to level out ?

    Can't say about deaths because it depends on the strain and which becomes more dominant. The 'S' mutation is less deadly. The 'L' is more deadly and also more infectious. With China the L has decreased due to the social distancing and the S is the more prevalent one.

    Older people with weakened immune systems due to pre-existing illness will be more vulnerable and children.


    Warm weather means more UV, only areas that get UV will kill the virus.
    Right, doubling every 2 weeks assumes basically no quarantine, but you need to aggressively test and aggressively quarantine once you get to something like 10s of 1000s of cases. The problem is that the virus is going to be heavily localized, so even though Alabama might be fine, New York and Washington will be maxing out their ICU capacity pretty quick.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gun Grape View Post
    We never buy frozen food from the market. Vacuum pack fresh veggies with the foodsaver then freeze them. The flavor is much better. And they take up less space

    Wait I take that back. I have a bag of frozen peas and corn. Its for when my knee acts up. Better than any ice pack you can get cause it contours to the joint.

    The key to keeping the food in your freezer cold longer when the power goes out is to keep it full. The less dead space in the freezer the longer things stay frozen. When you take the food out put something in its place. The less air you are trying to keep cold the longer stuff stays frozen
    I keep intending to do that, and then I never get around to doing it. :/
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  13. #43
    Resident Curmudgeon Military Professional Gun Grape's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Mar 05
    Location
    Panama City Fl
    Posts
    9,082
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    Try walking across a bridge over the river in Chennai in 100 degree weather, when said river is essentially landfill and raw sewage. Worst thing I've ever smelt, I was dry heaving the entire way.

    I don't mean to put down other countries at all, but I'm sure DE has encountered smells far worse than trash not getting picked up for a week in an American subdivision.
    Not regular trash. Trash with all the rotting food that went bad. We had the raw sewage thing going also. I have also been to some pretty nasty places. It was just as bad as those.

    Looking back it was around 3 weeks before trash was picked up. It wasn't taken away to the landfill. It was staged in rolloff trailers on county property
    Human Scum. Proud Never Trumper

  14. #44
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 03
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    12,061
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Can't say about deaths because it depends on the strain and which becomes more dominant. The 'S' mutation is less deadly. The 'L' is more deadly and also more infectious. With China the L has decreased due to the social distancing and the S is the more prevalent one.
    I wonder if that explains in part the difference in mortality rates between Italy and South Korea. Both officially have about 7300 cases, yet Italy has 366 deaths to South Korea's 50. Italy's population does skews older compared to South Korea's, but there aren't that many more older people in Italy. Maybe too Italy has some tens of thousands of cases that have yet to be detected, say, 30 or 40,000 cases total. Or perhaps medical treatment is better in South Korea. Or some combination of all the above.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  15. #45
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    10,914
    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I wonder if that explains in part the difference in mortality rates between Italy and South Korea. Both officially have about 7300 cases, yet Italy has 366 deaths to South Korea's 50. Italy's population does skews older compared to South Korea's, but there aren't that many more older people in Italy. Maybe too Italy has some tens of thousands of cases that have yet to be detected, say, 30 or 40,000 cases total. Or perhaps medical treatment is better in South Korea. Or some combination of all the above.
    Probably but we don't yet. The S strain is the grandparent, it mutated into L. L spread quick, China clamped down hard. This reduced L and S became more prevalent.

    If Italy does not impose strict quarantine then L will spread and become more dominant. kato posted in the other thread they've instituted blocks at the provincial level. Nobody gets into Lombardi or out unless they pass the screen test which is just taking temperature. I would assume.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Iranian Tanker Wars 2019
    By troung in forum The Iranian Question
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 21 Sep 19,, 15:59
  2. America’s Imperial Economy
    By andrew in forum American Politics & Economy
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11 Nov 09,, 19:38
  3. Economy of Latin America
    By xinhui in forum International Economy
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 17 Jan 09,, 00:55
  4. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 26 Oct 06,, 13:48
  5. The negative return economy: a discourse on America's black budget
    By SolveEtCoagula in forum World Affairs Board Pub
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 26 Aug 06,, 18:19

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •