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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Sir, the Chinese lockdown was incredibly strict.
    It obviously failed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    I mean they were forcibly barricading people in their own homes at one point. We saw the videos. You cannot say in one post that we don't need a full lockdown and also point to China and say that hey the numbers aren't that bad.
    Since the virus left Wuhan, containment has failed. Containment already failed in Wuhan. The numbers alone told me that leakage was going rampant with new cases appearing. The virus burned itself out. Not that quarrantine worked.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    USA already has more infected people than both China and Italy now.
    That's because the virus is burning out in China and Italy and just starting in the US. Total number of cases remain equivelent.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Also, I don't think anyone mentioned 30 million dead. That is 10% of the US population.
    I stop reading left side articles when they start spouting whacked out numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    But if 60% of the population gets infected and the virus has a 2% death rate, that is 3.6 million dead. Those are realistic numbers. And that death rate will increase or decrease depending on how much spare intensive care capacity the US health system has available at any given point. If the spread is not slowed down and the curve flattened the consequences may be disastrous. I don't understand why people find it hard to understand this.
    That is just fear mongering. Not even 10% of Wuhan city got infected. Not even 1%. This when no one had a clue what COVID-19 was and nothing was locked down. And it left Wuhan to the rest of China and we do not see even 100 million people infected nor even 10 million.

    Total number of cases in the world is over 500,000 - out of a population of 7 billion and it's already burning itself out in China and Italy. China and Italy will certainly see new cases but nowhere near the old numbers.

    Just following the numbers, anything about 60% or 75% (Canadian projection) being infected is just plain fear mongering.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 27 Mar 20, at 07:48.

  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    It obviously failed.

    Since the virus left Wuhan, containment has failed. Containment already failed in Wuhan. The numbers alone told me that leakage was going rampant with new cases appearing. The virus burned itself out. Not that quarrantine worked.

    That's because the virus is burning out in China and Italy and just starting in the US. Total number of cases remain equivelent.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I stop reading left side articles when they start spouting whacked out numbers.

    That is just fear mongering. Not even 10% of Wuhan city got infected. Not even 1%. This when no one had a clue what COVID-19 was and nothing was locked down. And it left Wuhan to the rest of China and we do not see even 100 million people infected nor even 10 million.

    Total number of cases in the world is over 500,000 - out of a population of 7 billion and it's already burning itself out in China and Italy. China and Italy will certainly see new cases but nowhere near the old numbers.

    Just following the numbers, anything about 60% or 75% (Canadian projection) being infected is just plain fear mongering.
    I would love to believe that the peak has reached, and indeed I was thinking that in WA state we had peaked. And then we got 600 new cases in WA just this day, even with a lockdown and social distancing. The daily new cases are going up very fast right now.
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  3. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    That's because the virus is burning out in China and Italy and just starting in the US. Total number of cases remain equivelent.
    Not really 'equivalent' because A. China has an extra 1bln population more than the US so the numbers of infections should be higher than the US. B. Because as you say the US is on the ascendant path in terms of case numbers whereas China has peaked and new case numbers are declining. If the US path even remotely follows every other country's the US will easily have more people infected and more deaths than China, while having roughly a quarter of the population.

    By population density China has 375 people per square mile compared to the US 93. The UK has over 1000 per square mile).

    I was looking at the numbers last night and this virus seems sexist; men are more likely to get it (and die from it) than women.
    Last edited by snapper; 27 Mar 20, at 13:09.

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    Quote Originally Posted by surfgun View Post
    $5/mask, ey? Nice little mark-up there.

    I've a few P100s left-over from a minor home project. Definitely will be adding a few more to the stockpile after this fiasco, but will need to wait a lonngggg while before they get back down in price.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    I would love to believe that the peak has reached, and indeed I was thinking that in WA state we had peaked. And then we got 600 new cases in WA just this day, even with a lockdown and social distancing. The daily new cases are going up very fast right now.
    If you are expecting zero casualties, then this is the wrong thread. The casualties are extremely regrettable but acceptable. This is neither the Black Death nor the Zombie Outbreak. We have no cure for COVID-19. People are going to die.

    There is another thing. My friends and I are not going to sit at home waiting to die. We've seen way too many people going into old age homes healthy and virbrant and then become a incoherant invalid within a year. We need interaction and things to do. We are not going to allow the government to scare us into what we can or cannot do in our own homes nor whom we decide to share bread with.

    This social distancing will kill us just as well as COVID-19. Just don't do anything stupid.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 27 Mar 20, at 13:27.

  6. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Not really 'equivalent' because A. China has an extra 1bln population more than the US so the numbers of infections should be higher than the US. B. Because as you say the US is on the ascendant path in terms of case numbers whereas China has peaked and new case numbers are declining. If the US path even remotely follows every other country's the US will easily have more people infected and more deaths than China, while having roughly a quarter of the population.

    By population density China has 375 people per square mile compared to the US 93. The UK has over 1000 per square mile).

    I was looking at the numbers last night and this virus seems sexist; men are more likely to get it (and die from it) than women.
    Wuhan City 11 million people. New York City 8.6 million people. Anything else?

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    Certainly but the US is NOT mirroring China in that case but exceeding China in the number of cases.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Certainly but the US is NOT mirroring China in that case but exceeding China in the number of cases.
    I have news for you. No one god damned knows anything. You're sick but can tough it out? Go home and self isolate. You can have the flu, a cold, or COVID-19. No one knows. You're not going to be tested. The number of cases in China is based in large part on reported symptons, NOT testing. So, any discussion about who's got more than whom is moot since no one got a clue to the real numbers

    The ONLY thing we can sure about is that this thing is not the Black Death.

  9. #384
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    I think the real question is why is the US case percentage higher than the Chinese? I am not saying you should trust the Chinese statistics (I certainly do not trust the Ukrainian ones, or the Muscovite ones where they have "flu epidemic") but if you accept the Chinese numbers as even not totally accurate broadly factual then why is the US doing worse?

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    snapper,

    I think the real question is why is the US case percentage higher than the Chinese? I am not saying you should trust the Chinese statistics (I certainly do not trust the Ukrainian ones, or the Muscovite ones where they have "flu epidemic") but if you accept the Chinese numbers as even not totally accurate broadly factual then why is the US doing worse?
    boils down to more centralized authority and willingness to put aside political/economic opposition.

    here, there's 50 states and each state governor determines the risk they are willing to accept. Trump can talk about "opening up the US for business", but he can't actually -force- governors to do so.

    this is not to say the Chinese system is superior, of course. with appropriate precautions, the US could have avoided 75% of the pain, but that is contingent on us actually having national leadership.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #386
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    I would not necessarily look at China and be convinced that they are out of the woods. The situation is changing daily and this virus is likely to be with us for quite some time.

    What we need to be concerned about is dealing with our current crisis in NYC, and the shit about to hit the fan in Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, and certain rural areas that are going to get saturated PDQ.

    In Chicago we moved from "stay at home, but we trust you to manage this yourself" to "police gonna beat yo ass" in about 5 days.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  12. #387
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    I would not necessarily look at China and be convinced that they are out of the woods. The situation is changing daily and this virus is likely to be with us for quite some time.
    correct, the re-infection threat will remain for the foreseeable future.

    that doesn't prevent Xi Jinping from crowing about it, though.

    What we need to be concerned about is dealing with our current crisis in NYC, and the shit about to hit the fan in Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, and certain rural areas that are going to get saturated PDQ.
    the rural areas are going to get devastated once it hits, given their healthcare systems.

    on a bigger scale, once it really goes into Africa and Brazil, those places are going to turn into complete sh*tshows.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #388
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    ^ Africa I can understand, but why do you say Brazil?
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the rural areas are going to get devastated once it hits, given their healthcare systems.
    Rural life is the very definition of social distancing. You litterally had to drive to your next door neighbour.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    on a bigger scale, once it really goes into Africa and Brazil, those places are going to turn into complete sh*tshows.
    You cannot turn Africa into a shitshow when it is already a shitshow. If H1N1 is any example, Africa would neither care nor notice.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_f...emic_in_Africa

    Only ebola elicit a national response. COVID-19 is just another flu. The young gets bed ridden. The old dies. That is life in Africa.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 27 Mar 20, at 16:49.

  15. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    correct, the re-infection threat will remain for the foreseeable future.
    That would be reinfection of the herd, infection re-entering the population, not so much a reinfection of individuals who gained some level of immunity with antibodies gained from prior infection.

    Given that the virus made the jump from bat to human among a very small group of people handling infected bush meat before transitioning to pandemic, and also given that only a tiny fraction of the population gained immunity, it would seem that a tiny fraction of virus carriers could again reinfect others and restart local epidemic cycles.
    Last edited by JRT; 27 Mar 20, at 17:07.
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