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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #346
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Don't know what your odds are. But let's say you lose half the guys. That's 5 to 10 odds.
    Not as gruesome. If you are exposed to combat, you have 0.3-0.4% of WIA or KIA. 11 million people in Wuhan was exposed to COVID-19 but in all of China, there has been 80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.

    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Not saying you should go into a bunker.

    But restaurants shifting to takeout, social distancing,closing schools, etc., are prudent public health tasks.
    A lot easier said then done. The only restaurants surviving on take out are those who do significant take out in the first place. If your restaurant rely on alcohol as part of the income, then you're SOL, especially the wait staff.

    Social distancing is impossible for a lot trades. There are a lot of things you need two or more people to lift. If you have dogs, forget it. You can try to pull the dog in by the leash but that doesn't stop the other person from trying to say hello to your dog even if he stays away from you. He gets close to the dog. The dog comes back to you. And as I stated, I am not going to allow anyone to dictate whom I can or cannot invite into my own home. It is also the invitees perogative to accept the invitation or not. Ottawa is an hour away. No COVID-19 has been reported in my area. Nobody's business but ours if we get together to shoot the crap.

    Of course, no one would come near me after I get through the barn. I smell like horse pucks, one of the joys of owning horses.

    Closing schools is an academic mystery to me. I'm not arguing against it but all evidence suggests that the young are not at risk.

  2. #347
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Not as gruesome. If you are exposed to combat, you have 0.3-0.4% of WIA or KIA. 11 million people in Wuhan was exposed to COVID-19 but in all of China, there has been 80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.
    0.3% is 1 in 300, you lose 1 out of 300

    Those are waay better odds than people in that Wuhan community, their odds were 10% or 1 in 10.

    Unfortunately sampling number is only 500. If it was 2k at least there would be a lower error margin.

    If its 50% off then the odds are any where from 1 in 6 to 1 in 20.

    Meaning your odds of surviving line infantry are 20 - 50 times better than those people in Wuhan.

    That is for a place between stage 3 & 4.

    Stage 2 i don't know, better odds. Let's make it 1 in 100 or 1%

    Three times better odds surviving line infantry than catching this virus in stage 2

    I'm going by affected not deaths.

    Avoiding getting infected.

  3. #348
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    80,000 cases in all of China. 11 million people in Wuhan alone who were exposed (exposed does not mean infection just as combat exposure does not mean combat engagement). 80,000 divided by 11 million is 0,007% odds of being infected (I'm not including all of China). Way better than the 0.3-0.4% of WIA/KIA odds in combat exposure.

  4. #349
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The problem with doing a city average is its got a wide range either side. An outbreak in some streets skews the picture. People move, the odds change.

    My example is just an anecdote. Now that you tell me what line infantry is like, 1 in 10 is lousy odds for that housing community. Chinese numbers don't seem so funny in this case. They're real.

    In HK & Singapore they have apps which show which buildings had infected cases. People can see which blocks have cases they stay away. Improves their chances.

    We will never get such granularity in our countries.

    Consider Shanghai with a population of 25 million only had 300 cases.

    Shanghai never had shelter in place policy like Wuhan. No province in China had Hubei's strict policy.

    But every one who steps out has to wear masks in the country or face 14 day mandatory quarantine.

    The masks don't completely protect the healthy from getting infected but they effectively stop the sick from infecting the healthy. Even a simple bandana would be enough. No need for anything fancy.

    That is if your country can make them in numbers large enough to deem them mandatory.

    Shanghai is getting back to work slowly. All have to wear masks still. But they are loosening the restrictions.

    Chengdu has cars on the road now.

    But Wuhan will only allow bicyles or electric scooters.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 25 Mar 20, at 19:09.

  5. #350
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The problem with doing a city average is its got a wide range either side. An outbreak in some streets skews the picture. People move, the odds change.
    Unless you contained the outbreak right off the bat, then containment cannot be restricted to a few streets/blocks. You have the established the widest possible containment and that is the city. However, just the fact that it spread outside of China meant it was not contained and the ENTIRE city was exposed. That's just the facts. Whether the entire population got infected or not does not eliminate the fact that they were exposed.

  6. #351
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    All of the above

    They said self isolate & come back when he's really sick

    This is in Chicago

    Ridiculous!
    Come back when one's about to die? I can't believe this.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  7. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Come back when one's about to die? I can't believe this.
    Usually that means you are having breathing problems and need to call an ambulance. Testing is restricted to those who's positive results would require intensive hospital care. In other words, you're have a fever, a cough, and trouble breathing. You goto Emergency. They test you. If positive, you stay. If not, you go home and told to tough it out with over the counter medication.

    Again, for the young healthy, this is nothing more than a feverish cough and you can tough it out.

  8. #353
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    There is still limited testing capacity and they need to control utilization. Right now state guidance is only to test those hospitalized with unexplained pneumonia and people living or working in nursing homes and jails where there have already been confirmed cases. There are a LOT of people to test in those categories and the virus spreads like wildfire in those places, so it is way more important to track the virus there than in my job.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  9. #354
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    80,000 cases in all of China. 11 million people in Wuhan alone who were exposed (exposed does not mean infection just as combat exposure does not mean combat engagement).
    ok, exposed is a measure of risk here.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    80,000 divided by 11 million is 0,007% odds of being infected (I'm not including all of China).
    Slight correction here going by chinese data as shown in this app.

    As of Mar 24 2020
    Wuhan 50,005 infected 2,517 dead, 42,788 recovered
    Hubei 67,800 infected 3153 dead, 59,879 recovered (including Wuhan)

    Just one province exceeds the entire US and one city alone also until a few days ago. Any one still think these are funny CCP numbers ??

    China, 81,692 infected, 3276 dead, 72,844 recovered

    So for Wuhan that is 0.005% odds or 1 in 22,000 chance of being infected.

    I posted the number for the housing complex. Why were their odds of infection orders of magnitude higher ?

    People in the housing society might have intermingled before the shut down. Chinese new year after all. That might explain it. Poor folks had no warning at all.

    A champions league match is being blamed as the cause for the spike in Bergamo province. They too had no warning beforehand.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Way better than the 0.3-0.4% of WIA/KIA odds in combat exposure.
    Yes i think i get it now. Wow!

    The chance of getting infected even in Wuhan was actually low...as counter intuitive as that sounds.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Safe is not being stupid.
    It means not getting into groups.

    Going to a super market or even a market is getting into groups. If its outdoors then that's better than a confined space.

    It means not riding public transport period. No trains, metros or buses.

    If you need to do that then a mask is little better than none. A surgical mask will do.

    Very important people understand what being stupid means.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 26 Mar 20, at 05:00.

  10. #355
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Come back when one's about to die? I can't believe this.
    It is ridiculous because just listen to how we treated some one who flew in from NYC over a week back.

    Day after she arrived, call her up ask her how she is, oh you have a sore throat why don't we look at it.

    She's in for a test and here's the kicker, she cannot leave until the results come back and state she is clear !!

    I was given to understand mid Feb that in the US there was some hiccups which would be fixed in two weeks.

    So i think First week of match they're good to go.

    NO, because Trump says on the 14th by next Monday, now we're in the third week of March.

    So maybe a week from now if he goes back again for the test they give him one.

    Come back when you are more sick means we ain't got enough to spare just now.

    Or it could mean the test isn't reliable enough unless symptoms are more pronounced
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Mar 20, at 02:17.

  11. #356
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Patient: 59 year old man with only HBP and asymptomatic a few days earlier. Now critical, on a ventilator which isn't enough and is having his blood oxygenated also. 3D video of damage to the patient's lungs in a few days much of what may be damaged for a long time afterwards even if patient survives.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/healt...deo/index.html


  12. #357
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Shit just got very real

    US Initial Unemployment Claims for the week ended March 21, 2020 ... six days ago ... were up 1,064%.
    That's an increase from 282,000 to 3,283,000, or more than three million new claims, or 4.7 times as much as the previous high (695,000).
    Except for the March weekly data, all figures are averages for their respective periods.
    Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  13. #358
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    Fauci Breaks With Trump On Coronavirus Timeline
    Virus, Not Humans, 'Makes The Timeline,' Fauci Warns As Trump Mulls Easing Restrictions

    President Donald Trump may want to reopen the U.S. economy by Easter — but the novel coronavirus wreaking havoc across the globe may have other plans.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, pointed out Wednesday that the virus is determining “the timeline” for the pandemic.

    “You’ve gotta be realistic,” Fauci told CNN’s Chris Cuomo when asked when states, including hard-hit California and New York, could expect to see a reduction of infections. “You’ve got to understand that you don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline.”

    States need to respond to what’s happening in real-time, he continued. “If you keep seeing this acceleration, it doesn’t matter what you say. One week, two weeks, three weeks ― you’ve got to go with what the situation on the ground is.”

    “You can’t make an arbitrary decision until you see what you’re dealing with. You need the data,” added Fauci, who ― like other medical professionals ― has urged Americans to “hunker down” and practice social distancing to mitigate the spread of the virus.

    Fauci’s remarks stand in stark contrast to Trump’s assertion on Tuesday that he’d “love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter,” which falls on April 12 this year.

    “We’ll give it some more time if we need a little more time, but we need to open this country up,” Trump said during a Fox News virtual town hall. “We have to go back to work, much sooner than people thought.”

    Fauci, a member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, has emerged as the most trusted leader in the U.S. on the coronavirus crisis, according to a Business Insider poll this week of more than 1,100 Americans.

    The veteran doctor scored an average of 3.84 out of 5 for trustworthiness in the survey. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), Chris Cuomo’s brother, came in second, with a score of 3.29.

    Trump, in contrast, scored an average of 2.56 out of 5.


    Earlier Wednesday, Fauci told reporters during a White House briefing that while he was confident the U.S. would “be successful” in containing the coronavirus, known as COVID-19, this time around, he warned the virus could become a seasonal disease.

    “We really need to be prepared for another cycle” to hit later this year, Fauci said.
    _____________

    Welp, you can kiss Fauci's ass goodbye.

    So, let's take a survey: Who would you really take medical advice from?

    A world renown top infectious disease doctor...

    A person who on his best day, can't put together a coherent sentence and threatened to sue any of the schools he attended, if they release his grades?
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  14. #359
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Welp, you can kiss Fauci's ass goodbye.
    Watched a bit of Fauci and he did say that we cannot treat the US as a whole. It doesn't make sense to treat a small town Oklahoma with zero recorded cases the same as NYC. He did say we need more data but he is prepared to open up parts of the country and lock down others ... if the data supports it. We do not have such data as of yet.

  15. #360
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Watched a bit of Fauci and he did say that we cannot treat the US as a whole. It doesn't make sense to treat a small town Oklahoma with zero recorded cases the same as NYC. He did say we need more data but he is prepared to open up parts of the country and lock down others ... if the data supports it. We do not have such data as of yet.
    Trump wants to open the country back up, the economy. That's not a small town in Oklahoma. That's New York. Chicago. Los Angeles.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

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