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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    things would still suck, but it wouldn't be -this- bad. people only really started getting serious about social distancing this last week, and the pictures of the Florida/CA beaches should give anyone heebie-jeebies.
    Eric, get a grip. COVID-19 is bad but not that bad. Spanish Flu/2009 H1N1 was worst, far, far worst and we DID NOT PANIC this much. If you're young and healthy, you've got more than an even chance of needing nothing more than a bed and chicken soup. Isolate the weak and vulnerable if you have to but don't freaking panic. We've been through worst. Far, far worst. H1N1 kills young, not old, the very population who needs to work. COVID-19 kills the compromised, not the population who can put food on the table and maintain a roof over everyone's heads.

    And yeah, how's that thing about following the South Korean example? It won't work here.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 24 Mar 20, at 15:57.

  2. #302
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    Since we are confined to homes let's bring the office betting pool with us.

    Place your bets on when Trump will eventually dump/fire Fauci who I can bet is getting on his nerves. So one day, one week, one month, or something in between.

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    Eric, get a grip. COVID-19 is bad but not that bad. Spanish Flu/2009 H1N1 was worst, far, far worst and we DID NOT PANIC this much.
    uhh...no.

    statistically, its mortality rate is about as bad as Spanish Flu; the biggest difference is that rates are lower in developed countries-- up until the healthcare resources are exhausted. then the rate shoots back up again (see Italy).

    it is -definitely- worse than H1N1. otherwise, world leaders wouldn't be collectively committing economic seppuku right around now.


    If you're young and healthy, you've got more than an even chance of needing nothing more than a bed and chicken soup. Isolate the weak and vulnerable if you have to but don't freaking panic. We've been through worst. Far, far worst. H1N1 kills young, not old, the very population who needs to work. COVID-19 kills the compromised, not the population who can put food on the table and maintain a roof over everyone's heads.
    problem is that the world is aging, thus another reason why Italy is so hard hit.

    and doctors are then forced to choose who gets the hospital bed. the knock-on effects.

    i'm not panicking. i'm pissed off that my government isn't capable of basic preparedness, and indeed, my glorious leader is doing his best to downplay best medical advice.

    And yeah, how's that thing about following the South Korean example? It won't work here.
    i'm in the Air Force crisis management team for this. this is PRECISELY what DoD is doing right now, btw-- we're using the south korean and the USFK playbook.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    uhh...no.

    statistically, its mortality rate is about as bad as Spanish Flu; the biggest difference is that rates are lower in developed countries-- up until the healthcare resources are exhausted. then the rate shoots back up again (see Italy).
    Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Total number of Italian COVID-19 deaths are nowhere near Italian Spanish Flu deaths.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    it is -definitely- worse than H1N1. otherwise, world leaders wouldn't be collectively committing economic seppuku right around now.
    In a word - panic.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    problem is that the world is aging, thus another reason why Italy is so hard hit.

    and doctors are then forced to choose who gets the hospital bed. the knock-on effects.

    i'm not panicking. i'm pissed off that my government isn't capable of basic preparedness, and indeed, my glorious leader is doing his best to downplay best medical advice.
    Trump is going to rag on no matter what. No matter how he acted, he's going to be labelled as doing not enough. Look at the Chinese and their draconian measures, did that stop millions from being infected inside China?

    Trump is not wrong though. A few $100s government handout to each person is not going to buy him/her food for more than a month and most certainly ain't enough to pay for a roof once rent/mortgage comes in.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i'm in the Air Force crisis management team for this.
    In short, you still have a job. How about those who can't buy food right now?

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    this is PRECISELY what DoD is doing right now, btw-- we're using the south korean and the USFK playbook.
    The point is that the American people won't accept those draconian measures. Those beaches should tell you that.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 24 Mar 20, at 18:24.

  5. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Since we are confined to homes let's bring the office betting pool with us.

    Place your bets on when Trump will eventually dump/fire Fauci who I can bet is getting on his nerves. So one day, one week, one month, or something in between.
    Apparently it's reaching that point pretty rapidly Trump Aides Say He's Losing His Patience With Fauci

    Can't wait to see the fawning reaction of the Trump Kool-Aid Army when it happens.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Apparently it's reaching that point pretty rapidly Trump Aides Say He's Losing His Patience With Fauci

    Can't wait to see the fawning reaction of the Trump Kool-Aid Army when it happens.
    I figured as much. Too much face time on TV for one and too many times countering what Trump said which is something his personality can't stand. Plus he is a scientist, a doctor, intelligent all of which makes him an elite and Trump has a visceral dislike of elite ever since they turned him down in New York back in the late 70s to early 80s. He desperately wanted to be part of the high end New York crowd and they saw him as a joke.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Total number of Italian COVID-19 deaths are nowhere near Italian Spanish Flu deaths.
    Italy has a far far better health care system today than in 1918. And the SPanish Flu ravaged the world for practically a whole year. We are still in the early stages on this. You can't compare cumulative deaths over several months of one pandemic to the first month or two of another while it is still going on. Also no country (except China in early days) was trying to hide the extent of the disease unlike in 1918 when WW1 was in full swing when the virus hit. A reason other countries aren't already in deep doodoo like the Italians is because they looked at Italy and said "Holy Shit! We're no better off than them. We need to do something before the same thing happens to us!". That and the fact that they are behind on the curve.

    Trump is going to rag on no matter what. No matter how he acted, he's going to be labelled as doing not enough. Look at the Chinese and their draconian measures, did that stop millions from being infected inside China?
    The draconian measures did help. Things would have been far worse had they not reacted the way they did. We don't have to believe CCP statistics but claiming that millions were infected is also based on zero evidence.

    The point is that the American people won't accept those draconian measures. Those beaches should tell you that.
    More's the pity. Americans aren't alone in that. And people are going to suffer because of this hardheadedness.
    Last edited by Firestorm; 24 Mar 20, at 19:30.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Total number of Italian COVID-19 deaths are nowhere near Italian Spanish Flu deaths.
    Sir, we are a couple of months into this. The stats Eric refers to are over a 2+ year period for the members. What he is saying is the trends are lining up & matching.

    So let's not panic but let's not sit back on our heels which seems to be the reaction of the federal government.

    If the US government has a poor, lackadaisical response to this and insists on calling it the Chinese Flu....well the irony of the Spanish Flu is though it started at Camp Funston, KS, amongst mobilizing Doughboys, it was first reported by the neutral Spanish who had brought the flu with them to Europe. SO what should have been the Funston Flu got called the Spanish flu...cause America can't be blamed.
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    ^ correct; Italy suffered something like 275,000 deaths over 2 years of the Spanish Flu.

    with COVID, Italy has suffered 6,820 and counting-- and it's been less than 2 months. this, with stringent quarantine measures and modern medicine!

    it's not panic to take measures to avoid these type of death rates, and what was once seen as draconian is no longer so.

    actually, the main issue right now is figuring out how to keep the transmission and death rates down after isolation/quarantine measures are relaxed and before we come up with a true vaccine/treatment protocol. apparently you can be re-infected, and the virus itself is highly contagious.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  10. #310
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Italy has a far far better health care system today than in 1918. And the SPanish Flu ravaged the world for practically a whole year. We are still in the early stages on this. You can't compare cumulative deaths over several months of one pandemic to the first month or two of another while it is still going on. Also no country (except China in early days) was trying to hide the extent of the disease unlike in 1918 when WW1 was in full swing when the virus hit. A reason other countries aren't already in deep doodoo like the Italians is because they looked at Italy and said "Holy Shit! We're no better off than them. We need to do something before the same thing happens to us!". That and the fact that they are behind on the curve.
    The Spanish Flu is a H1N1 variant, meaning that we have been hit twice by this virus. Its effects are far worst than COVID-19. You catch it in the morning, you're dead on the train ride home.

    In the meantime, war time military production was not halted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    The draconian measures did help. Things would have been far worse had they not reacted the way they did. We don't have to believe CCP statistics but claiming that millions were infected is also based on zero evidence.
    Again, that was geography, not draconian measures and the millions infected was using the exact same model that claims that 50% of the West will be infected. Cannot use one claim and then to deny it to another population.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    More's the pity. Americans aren't alone in that. And people are going to suffer because of this hardheadedness.
    Count me among them. I see absolutely no need for social distancing when I'm not sick and the people around me are not sick. Sure, a bunch of strangers you don't know, keep your distance but me and my friends? Screw that.

    There are people right now wanting to go back to work because they're looking bankruptcy in the face. They're wondering why they're healthy and they can't work even though they have nothing to do with the public.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 24 Mar 20, at 19:58.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    with COVID, Italy has suffered 6,820 and counting-- and it's been less than 2 months. this, with stringent quarantine measures and modern medicine!
    What modern medicine? What quarrantine measures? There is zero treatment for COVID-19 and it was already way too late for any quarrantine to save the compromised.

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    What modern medicine? What quarrantine measures? There is zero treatment for COVID-19 and it was already way too late for any quarrantine to save the compromised.
    ventilators, for starters. reduction of the secondary opportunistic infections, some of which can be treated. if there was no difference, people wouldn't go to hospitals!

    the quarantine measures slow down rate of transmission. if Italy hadn't locked down the entire country, and had the military enforce it, the rates right now would be even higher. Italy, thankfully, has seen reduced trend in fatalities in the last two days as hospitals get a bit more breathing room to process patients.

    you can argue that once the quarantine measures are relaxed, rate of transmissions will go up anyway -- but as long as hospital/healthworker capacity can kinda-sorta keep up, the death rate need not approach the "natural" (without treatment/medical facilities) death rate of this disease, which seems to be about 15-20%. of course, standard caveat of based on what we know thus far-- I expect this percentage to drop some once enough tests can be done to ensure an accurate overall representation.

    ===

    edit: currently 414,661 confirmed cases. closed cases -- either you're cured or dead -- 126,845. 18,552, or 15% of closed cases, ended with death.

    from country breakdown, in the developed world, overall fatality rates veer between 4-10%, depending on how over-saturated the hospitals are. it'll probably be double that for places with sh*t healthcare, like say in the favelas of Brazil or the Gaza Strip.
    Last edited by astralis; 24 Mar 20, at 20:19.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Sir, we are a couple of months into this. The stats Eric refers to are over a 2+ year period for the members. What he is saying is the trends are lining up & matching.
    We were also in the middle of fighting a World War. So, priority would have been more screwed back then.

    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    So let's not panic but let's not sit back on our heels which seems to be the reaction of the federal government.
    And that is exactly the problem. Your personal health is your responsibility. I couldn't be bothered with Trump or Trudeau. I have bills to be paid. I have animals to take care of. I will be aware of those who are sneezing and coughing around me but I am not going to wipe down a $20bill just before I pay for something nor am I going to ask the cashier to dump the coins into alcohol before handing back my change.

    I feel a cough coming on, I stayed home and play with the dogs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    We were also in the middle of fighting a World War. So, priority would have been more screwed back then.

    And that is exactly the problem. Your personal health is your responsibility. I couldn't be bothered with Trump or Trudeau. I have bills to be paid. I have animals to take care of. I will be aware of those who are sneezing and coughing around me but I am not going to wipe down a $20bill just before I pay for something nor am I going to ask the cashier to dump the coins into alcohol before handing back my change.

    I feel a cough coming on, I stayed home and play with the dogs.
    Doctors have been shouting for a while now that you can be infectious before being symptomatic. What is the logic behind distrusting them when they say that? You cannot be sure that you or your close friends are all infection free. If you were only putting your own health at risk by not practicing social distancing that would have been your prerogative. But it is not. You put others at risk too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Doctors have been shouting for a while now that you can be infectious before being symptomatic. What is the logic behind distrusting them when they say that? You cannot be sure that you or your close friends are all infection free. If you were only putting your own health at risk by not practicing social distancing that would have been your prerogative. But it is not. You put others at risk too.
    100% sure? No. Odds in my favour? Oh, damned right they are. I have no qualms to be in Las Vegas with these odds. Do I meet any requirements for self isolation as published by the US and Canada? Not by a long shot.

    You have a bigger chance of catching Anthrax from me than you do of COVID-19 considering the amount of manure I clean out of the barn. No, I don't have anthrax. I'd be dead already.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 24 Mar 20, at 20:34.

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