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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #271
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    DE,

    that is FULLY possible.

    the graph you posted is dated 19 March. in 19 March, the US had a total of 7,087 cases.

    as of 3/22 we're now at 32,149.

    even assuming linear growth -- and we all know it won't be linear, given both disease and the increase in testing -- it would be hit roughly 110K cases in 10 days.
    It might not be linear, its possible to flat line. See this

    As more people are found they are taken out of circulation. This is the rationale for increased testing. And your testing numbers will only get larger with time.

    I thought Korea was doing good but they were unlucky with a super spreader. Same thing happened in New Rochelle, NY. One lawyer infected 70. R0 is supposed to be two that is one infects two. If that remains then you have no community spread. If R0 gets higher then the number of cases piles up.

    Pueyo pointed this out in his previous paper. That paper also showed China was not fudging the numbers as so many commentators still allege. Still i see comments that millions have died in China.

    Why must millions have died there ? because they got so many to go around, heh.



    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    Vietnam has a high number of tests-- they're -exporting- tests to Europe. they were locking down cities back in Feb 13.

    for context, here's a quote from Trump on February 26.

    “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."
    Vietnam does not have a high number of tests, for a population of nearly 100 million, number of tests performed in Vietnam compared to S.Korea remains quite low. Just like Japan.

    Thailand is another. All those Chinese tourists. Thailand showed up early in the stats then got forgotten.

    The ones that are doing well are Thailand, Singapore, HK, Vietnam, Taiwan & Japan. Every one with extensive connections with China.

    What's their secret.

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    Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia? | BBC | Mar 21 2020

    Lesson 2 does not explain the discrepancy in testing numbers.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Mar 20, at 08:32.

  2. #272
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Look who's got it now.

    Coronavirus: Harvey Weinstein tests positive

    Former Hollywood producer and convicted sex offender Harvey Weinstein has tested positive for coronavirus while in prison.

    He is now in isolation, according to Michael Powers, president of the New York State Correctional Officers and Police Benevolent Association.

    Weinstein was found guilty of rape and sexual assault last month and sentenced to 23 years in prison.

    His lawyers have vowed to appeal against his conviction.

    Weinstein is being held at Wende Correctional Facility near Buffalo in upstate New York. Two prisoners at the facility tested positive for the virus on Sunday, an officer who did not wish to give his name told Reuters news agency.

    Mr Powers told Reuters that several members of staff had been quarantined. He expressed concern for corrections officers who he claims lack proper protective equipment.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52000173
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  3. #273
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The South Koreans also have a respect for authority the US does not have, mainly due to culture.
    Still, Americans are law abiding. Believe in the rule of law.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    When South Korea was in deep financial doodoo, we've got stories of South Korean familieis giving up their personal owned gold to help the state out. Would you expect the Americans to do the same?
    Not without some prodding

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

    Executive Order 6102 is a United States presidential executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States". The order was made under the authority of the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, as amended by the Emergency Banking Act the previous month.
    Try doing something like this in India and it would be much harder.

  4. #274
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Ok, first off. Quarrantine is the only way to prevent COVID-19 growth. Testing only detects infections, not prevent them. By the time you detect the infection is already too late. That person had already come into contact with others.
    Well, contact tracing must follow testing otherwise you are not containing. The problem with containment is it needs to be above 90% to be effective. That's too high a bar for many countries.

    Even in NY state, the decision has come to restrict testing to those whose positive result would incur hospitalization. Anyone else goes home and ride it out in isolation whether they got COVID-19 or not.
    This is the Indian position as well.

    The number of infected detection will skyrocket. There is zero doubt about that. And the cases of undetected will make that number look small. As heartless as this sound, the question is is the death rate manageable and for the moment, it is so. It is extremely so.
    The idea that mildly infected will live even though they might infect others. Whether stated policy or not, the "herd immunity" thing is in play.

  5. #275
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Oh God, I want to cry

    And that, my friends, is Darwin doing his absolutely finest work.
    *clap*
    *clap*
    *clap*
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  6. #276
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    And that, my friends, is Darwin doing his absolutely finest work.
    *clap*
    *clap*
    *clap*
    If this virus knocks off a bunch of fraudsters like Kenneth Copeland then that will be a tiny silver lining.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  7. #277
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Yesterday it was announced that all 'non-essential' businesses in my home state of Victoria & NSW would shut down, with school holidays in Victoria to start early. Too much evidence of too many people unwilling to adhere to 'social distancing' rules and a rapidly climbing number of cases forced the hand of several state Premiers.

    Most of our company is already working from home, but my team cannot. I turned up at work today expecting it to be our last day for weeks/months. Got a very nice surprise. My project manager successfully argued that because our sole client is a major government entity that needs the data we provide that we sneak in as 'essential'. Lots of new rules about cleaning and distance in the office, but for now we all have jobs to go to. We might scale back a few shifts, but for our casual workers in particular that is still a good outcome.

    By way of contrast I had a heartbreaking afternoon at my friend's Ethiopian cafe. I am there most weeks and it is my home away from home. They decided to close, so I went over to help out a bit and put a bit of cash over the till buying up food to see me through while they are closed. After 13 years in business my friends don't know when or even if they can reopen. The staff were all looking at a dole queue. There are so many stories like this. The speed of this crisis has rolled over everyone. SIGH!


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  8. #278
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    ^ Take all safety precautions and stay safe Bigfella.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

  9. #279
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    DE,

    It might not be linear, its possible to flat line. See this
    if you believe CCP stats...I have a bridge to sell you.

    in any case, we're up to 35K+ cases, so an additional 3K overnight. and those are the cases we -know- about.

    still doubt that the possibility of hitting 200K in 9 days?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  10. #280
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    still doubt that the possibility of hitting 200K in 9 days?
    We likely have more than that already.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...bruary/608521/

    In late January, as Bedford began to warn public-health officials, there remained, according to the president, nothing to worry about. “We have it totally under control,” President Donald Trump said at Davos. “It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

    On or about January 15, someone infected by the coronavirus arrived in the Seattle area, Bedford’s research would later show. The virus began to silently spread in the region. It would not be detected for another six weeks.

    If there is one thing about the novel coronavirus that you must understand, it’s that it is a firecracker with a long fuse. Here is what the explosion looks like: Every six days, the number of people infected by the disease doubles, according to estimates from Bedford and other epidemiologists. At the start of February, Bedford now believes, the United States had something like 430 infections; if American interventions have done nothing to slow the disease’s spread, then his simple calculations show that more than 120,000 people could be infected by this weekend. Because of the great uncertainty, it’s probably most appropriate to give Bedford’s range: About 60,000 to 245,000 people are now infected with COVID-19 in the United States.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  11. #281
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    Trump suggests he might soon prioritize the economy over public health

    The White House is apparently regretting letting medical experts handle a medical emergency.

    As President Trump's top coronavirus doctor Anthony Fauci let on in weekend interviews, he's pleased Trump has actually listened to and taken his advice in fighting the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. But starting with a Sunday night tweet, Trump indicated he's taking back the helm from Fauci as soon as the CDC's recommended 15-day isolation period is over.

    "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem," Trump tweeted, alluding to the economic fallout that coronavirus containment measures have caused. Vice President Mike Pence echoed that sentiment in saying the CDC would update its guidance Monday to allow people exposed to the virus to return to work sooner if they wear a mask. It comes amid a "growing sentiment" in the White House that "medical experts were allowed to set policy that has hurt the economy," and after some Republican lawmakers "pleaded with the White House to find ways to restart the economy," The New York Times reports.

    There's a big problem with that strategy, experts warn. If Americans were magically been frozen in place for 15 days and the U.S. could test everyone, sure, the rampant coronavirus would die and it would be clear who needed further isolation or medical care, The New York Times' health and science reporter explained. But that clearly isn't happening, and, paired with America's late start on coronavirus containment, it shows why the U.S. probably shouldn't reopen for business just yet.
    ______________

    As if we needed yet another reminder:

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    TwentyFiveFortyFive

  12. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    And that, my friends, is Darwin doing his absolutely finest work.
    *clap*
    *clap*
    *clap*
    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    If this virus knocks off a bunch of fraudsters like Kenneth Copeland then that will be a tiny silver lining.
    We're not that lucky.

  13. #283
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    A link that updates constantly. Cases, deaths, recovered, active cases, closed cases, and by country stats.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  14. #284
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    of all the horrifying things i've read about this POTUS, this has to rank pretty high up there. my god.

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    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  15. #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    of all the horrifying things i've read about this POTUS, this has to rank pretty high up there. my god.

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    The stock market continuing to plummet and jobless claims skyrocketing could very well be what causes him to finally melt down completely.

    It's all that's protected him since Day One. Take those away and his future prospects, political, legal, etc, are one giant flaming bag of dog shit just waiting to happen.

    Donald Trump cannot deal with stress. He's physically, emotionally and intellectually unable to do so.

    Pence and Company better get that 25th Amendment dusted off and ready to go.
    TwentyFiveFortyFive

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