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Thread: COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

  1. #256
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    Rand Paul becomes first known senator to test positive for coronavirus

    Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., on Sunday became the first known senator to test positive for COVID-19.

    "Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for COVID-19," Paul's account tweeted. "He is feeling fine and is in quarantine. He is asymptomatic and was tested out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and events. He was not aware of any direct contact with any infected person."

    "He expects to be back in the Senate after his quarantine period ends and will continue to work for the people of Kentucky at this difficult time," the thread continued. "Ten days ago, our D.C. office began operating remotely, hence virtually no staff has had contact with Senator Rand Paul."

    Paul is the third member of Congress to announce a positive test for coronavirus, following Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., and Ben McAdams, D-Utah.

    In an interview with NBC News, Diaz-Balart said Saturday he is feeling better after a week but said the initial symptoms hit him "like a ton of bricks." McAdams, meanwhile, told NBC's "Today" last week that the symptoms "felt like I had a belt around my chest, and so I couldn't breathe deeply."

    Paul, a libertarian, forced a delay on the Senate's first coronavirus aid bill by pushing a doomed amendment. He later voted against it.

    Paul suffered lung damage as a result of having his ribs broken during an altercation with a neighbor in 2017. Last year, he had part of his lungs removed in surgery.
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    She sure is a bitch, isn't she. Choke on it asshole.
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  2. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    not quite. i agree that quarantine is the only way to prevent growth. however, in South Korea, the massive testing allowed authorities to do targeted quarantines, and to track down people that the infected had been in contact with before-- thus minimizing the disruption.
    You cannot compare South Korea to the US. The US has 6-7 times the population and 98 times the territory. You quarrantine Seoul, you effectively quarrantine 20% of the population. The South Koreans also have a respect for authority the US does not have, mainly due to culture. When South Korea was in deep financial doodoo, we've got stories of South Korean familieis giving up their personal owned gold to help the state out. Would you expect the Americans to do the same? Until COVID-19 was played up in the media, would you expect healthy Americans to isolate themselves just because Trump says so? For a disease they never heard of that sounded alot like the common flu?

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    Oh God, I want to cry


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    You cannot compare South Korea to the US. The US has 6-7 times the population and 98 times the territory. You quarrantine Seoul, you effectively quarrantine 20% of the population. The South Koreans also have a respect for authority the US does not have, mainly due to culture. When South Korea was in deep financial doodoo, we've got stories of South Korean familieis giving up their personal owned gold to help the state out. Would you expect the Americans to do the same? Until COVID-19 was played up in the media, would you expect healthy Americans to isolate themselves just because Trump says so? For a disease they never heard of that sounded alot like the common flu?
    part of the reason why South Korea did so great on the testing front was precisely BECAUSE they knew that they -couldn't- effectively quarantine Seoul. if targeted quarantine of Daegu failed, they would be screwed-- and they knew it.

    they had the previous experience of MERS, which is why they acted so quickly.

    forget the mumbo-jumbo about "south korean culture", the reason why they moved fast was because their executive leadership knew the risks and were willing to move fast.

    Trump didn't want to do the same thing because he simply didn't believe COVID was a serious business to begin with. his earlier comments about how this was all a hoax was an indicator of this, and also influenced national actions to this day -- hard to persuade people to voluntarily socially distance when 40% of Republicans to this day still believe it's a hoax!
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Yeah, tell me how this would play out in the US

    What the world can learn from South Korea’s coronavirus strategy

    The response has melded with Korean technological ingenuity, explains Park.“Koreans are super good at making things convenient for people – we don't have any patience,” he says. “South Korea is one of the most wired countries in the world, where everybody uses cell phones for just about everything, and [the government] was able to use our cell phones to not only track but send warnings, like ‘watch out, there's a Covid-19 patient in your vicinity.’”

  6. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    does anyone, anyone here think things would have been such a clusterf*ck in the United States if HRC was President now?
    Yes. This crisis has not been managed well anywhere in the Western world. There is no evidence at all that this situation would be appreciably better under any other President. Trump is not President in Spain, or Italy, or the UK, or France. I'm not particularly happy with Trump, but this problem is not on him. You'd need President Bartlett under a 1st season Sorkin script to have managed this effectively.

    Also, I would not bet my life on supply chains continuing to operate at full capacity. I've seen enough absenteeism already that I am not confident our supply chain will operate anywhere near full capacity once full pandemic hits.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Yes. This crisis has not been managed well anywhere in the Western world. There is no evidence at all that this situation would be appreciably better under any other President. Trump is not President in Spain, or Italy, or the UK, or France. I'm not particularly happy with Trump, but this problem is not on him. You'd need President Bartlett under a 1st season Sorkin script to have managed this effectively.
    certainly the CDC has not covered itself in glory and that can't be blamed on Trump-- but a number of other factors certainly can. I highly doubt HRC would have wasted two months calling this a hoax-- and that's just for starters. the Presidential bully pulpit matters! and that's not to say anything else of Federal coordination, management, etc.

    the problem has been managed well in Korea and in Taiwan, both democratic societies. for instance, South Korea getting massive numbers of tests-- that has nothing to do with "Korean culture", and everything to do with learning from MERS. of the European nations, I'd say only France and Germany have political leadership worth anything, and that's reflected in the population-adjusted case rates:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorn.../#7f5ff26e974f

    frankly the US numbers are certainly significantly higher than reported, too, just because all those nations-- including basket case Italy!-- have conducted more tests as a proportion of their population than the US has.
    Last edited by astralis; 22 Mar 20, at 20:47.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Again, Taiwan and South Korea could not be compared. A relatively small landmass with a smaller population concentrated in a few centres. Targetted quarrantine worked there because it can work there that a single plane ride from the PRC effectively landed them at home. That is not the case with Europe and North America. You land in Vancouver or LA, you still need to take planes home to Toronto, New York, Montreal, Boston.

    The number of tests in South Korea is a red herring. Yes, they found out who was infected and fast but that that does not change the fact that these people did not move around much once their planes landed from the PRC. It's not targetted quarrantine that they achieved. It was that they lucked out that the infected did not move much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    ...of the European nations, I'd say only France and Germany have political leadership worth anything...
    It has been reported that Merkel is now in quarantine. Last Friday she received a precautionary vaccine against pneumococcal infection, and the doctor who vaccinated her has since tested positive for COVID-19.
    Last edited by JRT; 22 Mar 20, at 21:23.
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  10. #265
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    Again, Taiwan and South Korea could not be compared. A relatively small landmass with a smaller population concentrated in a few centres. Targetted quarrantine worked there because it can work there that a single plane ride from the PRC effectively landed them at home. That is not the case with Europe and North America. You land in Vancouver or LA, you still need to take planes home to Toronto, New York, Montreal, Boston.

    The number of tests in South Korea is a red herring. Yes, they found out who was infected and fast but that that does not change the fact that these people did not move around much once their planes landed from the PRC. It's not targetted quarrantine that they achieved. It was that they lucked out that the infected did not move much.
    of course not there's -never- an apples-to-apples comparison, because each country has their own unique strengths and weaknesses.

    you can also make the argument that the US also has advantages in that outside of the metropolitan areas like New York/LA/Chicago, the average population density is closer to that of New Zealand than France/South Korea/Italy/etc.

    but we -can- take lessons from each country. I disagree with the idea that South Korea's successes are not replicable, at least in part, in the United States or elsewhere.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    but we -can- take lessons from each country. I disagree with the idea that South Korea's successes are not replicable, at least in part, in the United States or elsewhere.
    I actually can't see any. Not without a massive violation of Civil Rights. Even in South Korea, there isn't enough test kits to test everyone and the labs would be over-runed if they did. As with any other country, it's targetted testing and the way they did is by identifying those who were infected and asked those who came into contact with them to come in for testing and to isolate themselves, relieving the State from tracking down such people. But it's a violation of Patient Privacy Rights. It's effective but that is a whole can of worms that would be frankly a nightmare for us in North America.

    Sinophobia has raised its ugly head here. It won't take much for some jackasses to start try culling the herd.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Oh God, I want to cry

    It stuns me, absolutely stuns me, that there are people so gullible that they fall for these Quacks
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the US is approximately 5-10 days behind Italy with no appreciable difference in rate of COVID growth.
    Can you explain by what metric you say that ? If I were to make a comparison i would use infected per million

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    To be like Italy on Mar 19 means, US needs to have 590 per million infected for a total of nearly 200k infected. You really think cases in the US will that high in 10 days ?

    To be like S.Korea then you have 161 per million infected for a total of 51k.


    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    not quite. i agree that quarantine is the only way to prevent growth. however, in South Korea, the massive testing allowed authorities to do targeted quarantines, and to track down people that the infected had been in contact with before-- thus minimizing the disruption.
    How to explain Japan or Vietnam then ? low numbers of testing with also low number of cases for the population. Both countries have extensive links with China.

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    US testing numbers are ramping up. Already in 6 figures.

    Click images to get the source
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Mar 20, at 00:19.

  14. #269
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    But it's a violation of Patient Privacy Rights. It's effective but that is a whole can of worms that would be frankly a nightmare for us in North America.
    perhaps. perhaps not. South Korea had the -exact- same legal issue in confronting MERS; afterwards, they put in place a legal framework that essentially made this type of GPS reporting legal during pandemics thereafter.

    I suspect after all this is done, what was once not possible will become possible, or even likely. look at the stimulus discussion now; in 2009, Obama refused to even consider anything above $1 trillion because he believed it would have zero political support.

    now they're talking about a $1.8 trillion stimulus, and in all likelihood that figure will now be even larger.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    DE,

    To be like Italy on Mar 19 means, US needs to have 590 per million infected for a total of nearly 200k infected. You really think cases in the US will that high in 10 days ?

    To be like S.Korea then you have 161 per million infected for a total of 51k.
    that is FULLY possible.

    the graph you posted is dated 19 March. in 19 March, the US had a total of 7,087 cases.

    as of 3/22 we're now at 32,149.

    even assuming linear growth -- and we all know it won't be linear, given both disease and the increase in testing -- it would be hit roughly 110K cases in 10 days.

    How to explain Japan or Vietnam then ? low numbers of testing with also low number of cases for the population. Both countries have extensive links with China.
    Vietnam has a high number of tests-- they're -exporting- tests to Europe. they were locking down cities back in Feb 13.

    for context, here's a quote from Trump on February 26.

    “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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