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Thread: German recession bound?

  1. #1
    Senior Contributor surfgun's Avatar
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    German recession bound?


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    Regular Wonderful Plans's Avatar
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    You won't know until you know.
    Hit the grape lethally.

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    It's looking more like a global recession. Markets have plummeted, yield curve inverted, and the panic around the virus all add to a black swan event that is causing cracks in the traditional markets.

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    Recession or correction. Big differrence.
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

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    The virus actually significantly increases domestic demand at the moment, something Germany has always been lacking...

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    Currently, from reported infections of COVID-2019:

    6/7 (86%) of those infected have comparatively mild infections that remain largely in the head, not significantly infecting the lungs.

    1/7 (14%) of those infected have infections in the lungs where things get very much more serious with possibility of potentially lethal secondary infections including pneumonia and sepsis.

    If 70% of the population become infected, then 10% of the population may suffer COVID-2019 lung infection. With population of 58 million, that is 5.8 million with COVID-2019 lung infection.

    Quote Originally Posted by BBC_News
    Coronavirus: Up to 70% of Germany could become infected - Merkel

    Wednesday, 11 March 2020

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that up to 70% of the country's population - some 58 million people - could contract the coronavirus.

    Mrs Merkel made the stark prediction at a news conference on Wednesday alongside Health Minister Jens Spahn.

    She said since there was no known cure, the focus would fall on slowing the spread of the virus. "It's about winning time," she explained.

    Her remarks came as Italy entered its second day of a national lockdown.

    Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced the closure of schools, gyms, museums, nightclubs and other venues across the country, which on Wednesday passed 10,000 confirmed infections.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JRT View Post
    Currently, from reported infections of COVID-2019:

    6/7 (86%) of those infected have comparatively mild infections that remain largely in the head, not significantly infecting the lungs.

    1/7 (14%) of those infected have infections in the lungs where things get very much more serious with possibility of potentially lethal secondary infections including pneumonia and sepsis.

    If 70% of the population become infected, then 10% of the population may suffer COVID-2019 lung infection. With population of 58 million, that is 5.8 million with COVID-2019 lung infection.

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    Also... of those reported with infection, globally

    6% required use of artificial respirators.
    58 million * 0.7 * 0.06 = 2.44 million

    3.4% have died.
    58 million * 0.7 * 0.034 = 1.38 million

    However... These percentages are based on reported infections, and presumably a large number of mild infections that did not reach the lungs may have gone unreported. If so, then the above numbers might be reduced accordingly, but discounting the totals by an exaggerated 90% reduction still leaves large numbers affected. Presumably Merkel has consulted with the best experts available to her.
    Last edited by JRT; 11 Mar 20, at 17:10.
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by JRT View Post
    Presumably Merkel has consulted with the best experts available to her.
    The 60-70% number comes from Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute, the federal research agency for disease control. The Robert Koch Institute is responsible by law for monitoring and analyzing epidemics and providing recommendations on a scientific basis for combatting them to the federal government. Wieler also currently holds a number of posts with WHO. Previously he used to be a member of the Protection Commission until its dissolvement, a federal committee advising the government on civil protection in wartime and similar widescale catastrophies. One could assume that he probably knows what he's talking about. He has a veterinarian and medical microbiology background, which might contribute to why people often see him as a "calm voice" with regard to human pandemics in his role.

    However Wieler only considers that number a rule of thumb for inflenza virii over a longer term, and explicitly refuses to derive any sort of number of possible victims from it.

    There is one other expert, Christian Drosten of Charite Berlin, who runs with a similar 70% infection rate number and straightup assumes half a million dead within two years. He's kinda a media personality lately, TV talkshows etc like him. He's mainly contested in that position by Alexander Kekule of University Halle, who points out how the disease has been flattening down in Wuhan and proposes applying similar measures as China in order to curb the expectable number of dead to below 40,000.

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