2020 American Political Scene

[Officer of Engineers]

They can interfere but can they succeed at it ?

Given their OPOPBJs, which was never about electing Trump, to cause ruckus within the US political system, they've more than succeeded in spades and cause headaches and heartaches years after the election.

[TopHatter]

Trump doubles down on support for Ghislaine Maxwell: 'Not looking for anything bad for her'

In an interview with Axios political reporter Jonathan Swan that aired on HBO Monday night, President Donald Trump once again spoke about Ghislaine Maxwell, who was recently arrested for alleged child sex trafficking in connection with deceased financier and convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Two weeks ago, Trump, who knew Epstein and Maxwell socially, caused an uproar when he wished Maxwell well. On Monday, he doubled down on the well-wishes for Maxwell, but first, Trump appeared to question the charges against her.

“Mr. President, Ghislaine Maxwell has been arrested on allegations of child sex trafficking. Why would you wish such a person well…” Swan began before being cut off by Trump. “Well, first of all,” Trump said, “I don’t know that.” “She has. She’s been arrested for that,” Swan responded. “You know that.”

Epstein was found dead in his cell last August in an apparent suicide amid suspicious circumstances that have caused many to question if he’d actually killed himself, or if he was murdered. Trump seemed to imply that his well-wishes for Maxwell are due to the suspicion surrounding Epstein’s death, and the fact that she now finds herself in a similar situation.

“Her friend, or boyfriend, was either killed or committed suicide in jail. She’s now in jail,” Trump said. “Yeah, I wish her well. I’d wish you well. I’d wish a lot of people well. Good luck. Let them prove somebody was guilty.” “Oh, so you’re saying you hope she doesn’t die in jail?” Swan asked. “Is that what you mean by ‘wish her well?’” “Her boyfriend died in jail, and people are still trying to figure out, how did it happen? Was it suicide? Was he killed? And I do wish her well. I’m not looking for anything bad for her. I’m not looking bad for anybody. And they took that and they made it such…” “I mean, she’s a child sex—alleged child sex trafficker,” Swan interjected. “…such a big deal,” Trump continued. “But all it is, is her boyfriend died. He died in jail. Was he killed? Was it suicide? I do. I wish her well.”
____________________

Trump has bragged that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose voters.

I would say he wasn't setting the bar nearly low enough.

[Albany Rifles]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316736/...ine-years.aspx

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. continues to tumble since it started trending downward at the beginning of the novel coronavirus pandemic. Currently, 13% of U.S. adults are satisfied with the state of the nation, down seven percentage points in the past month and 32 points since reaching a 15-year high in February. Satisfaction has not been this low since November 2011.


Line graph. The 13% of Americans who are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. is down from 20% in June and 45% in February.

The latest update is based on a July 1-23 Gallup poll, conducted as the U.S. faced a surge in coronavirus infections and the most challenging economic conditions since the Great Depression. The nation also continues its reckoning with the issue of race relations after the late May death of George Floyd and ensuing nationwide protests about racial injustice.

These events have greatly altered the national mood this year, from one that was brighter than it had been in over a decade to one of the dourest in the past 40 years.

Satisfaction now sits just six points above the all-time low in October 2008 immediately following sharp drops in the U.S. stock market during the global financial crisis.

The current measure ties as the ninth lowest in Gallup's history of tracking satisfaction since 1979. All of the other similar readings were recorded in tough economic times -- in 1979 during the energy crisis, in 2008 during the Great Recession, and in 2011 after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating as the federal government struggled to contain U.S. debt.

The plunge in the U.S. mood, both in the past month and since February, is mostly occurring among Republicans. Republicans' satisfaction today (20%) is about half what it was a month ago (39%) and down 60 points since February, after the Senate acquitted President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial. The current figure is easily the lowest for Republicans during the Trump administration, with their prior low being 38% in October 2017.

Notably, even with Republicans highly dissatisfied with the state of the nation, they continue to overwhelmingly approve of the job Trump is doing as president (91%). Consequently, their dissatisfaction may have more to do with what is going on in the country -- the coronavirus and its effect on economic activity, the focus on matters of race -- than the administration's handling of it. To some degree, it could also reflect Republicans' awareness of pre-election polls showing Trump trailing Democrat Joe Biden by a significant margin.

Independents have also shown a significant drop in satisfaction from earlier this year, with much of that coming in the past two months. Independents' 34% job approval rating of Trump is consistent with their low satisfaction.

Democrats have not been inclined to express satisfaction with the state of the nation during the Trump years, and that remains the case, with only 7% saying they are satisfied.


Line graph. 20% of Republicans, 12% of independents and 7% of Democrats are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States.

Bottom Line
Americans have rarely been less satisfied with the state of the nation than they are now. Although the public does not have to be highly satisfied for incumbents to be reelected, the current level of satisfaction sits well below the low-water mark (33%) at which an incumbent has won reelection in the past. An even more troubling sign for the current president is that satisfaction is significantly lower now than it was in 1992 (22%) when George H.W. Bush lost his bid for a second term.

[TopHatter]

Bottom Line
Americans have rarely been less satisfied with the state of the nation than they are now. Although the public does not have to be highly satisfied for incumbents to be reelected, the current level of satisfaction sits well below the low-water mark (33%) at which an incumbent has won reelection in the past. An even more troubling sign for the current president is that satisfaction is significantly lower now than it was in 1992 (22%) when George H.W. Bush lost his bid for a second term.

I wonder how Trump's followers will spin this one. Who am I kidding, they don't even give a shit lol.

[tbm3fan]

I wonder how Trump's followers will spin this one. Who am I kidding, they don't even give a shit lol.

People followed Jim Jones right over the cliff. No matter how you dress it up a cult is still a cult. The only difference here is that Trump is no Jim Jones as he would let his followers go over the cliff while he walks off in the other direction, abandoning them at the last moment, being the weasel he is.

[Bigfella]

I wonder how Trump's followers will spin this one. Who am I kidding, they don't even give a shit lol.

There has been a decades long campaign from parts of the GOP & its supporters (and funders) to undermine trust in government & public institutions. It goes beyond the usual corruption/ineptitude that all systems/parties inevitably produce. Trump isn't consciously a part of that, but to a considerable extent his election & Administration is a product of it. Ironically they might have produced something so utterly dysfunctional and hostile to any meanigful concept of government that it crashes & burns under its own weight.

[TopHatter]

There has been a decades long campaign from parts of the GOP & its supporters (and funders) to undermine trust in government & public institutions. It goes beyond the usual corruption/ineptitude that all systems/parties inevitably produce. Trump isn't consciously a part of that, but to a considerable extent his election & Administration is a product of it. Ironically they might have produced something so utterly dysfunctional and hostile to any meanigful concept of government that it crashes & burns under its own weight.

That's what cracks me up about these far-right idiots. They're anti-government but then Trump takes office and they turn into boot-licking sheep, demanding that people obey the government (the same one that's snatching people off the street in unmarked vans)

[TopHatter]

New poll shows plummeting GOP satisfaction with direction of country
Thanks to a marked shift among Republican voters since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, just 13 percent of Americans surveyed now say they are satisfied with “the way things are going in the United States.”

A poll by Gallup released Wednesday shows that the percentage of Republicans who say they are “satisfied” with the direction the country is heading has fallen by 60 points since February, when the pandemic began spreading rapidly across the U.S.

“The plunge in the U.S. mood, both in the past month and since February, is mostly occurring among Republicans. Republicans’ satisfaction today (20%) is about half what it was a month ago (39%) and down 60 points since February, after the Senate acquitted President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial. The current figure is easily the lowest for Republicans during the Trump administration, with their prior low being 38% in October 2017,” Gallup said on its website.

Just 7 percent of Democrats say they are satisfied with how things are going in the country, while 12 percent of independents agree with that assessment.

The pollster also cited the protests in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police and the economic downturn caused by the pandemic as influencing the steep drop concerning satisfaction.

While it may be tempting to conclude from the poll that President Trump has failed to make good on his 2016 campaign promise to “make America great again” to his own supporters, Gallup notes that the president’s support from Republicans remains at 91 percent.

Thirteen percent satisfaction is also not the lowest number recorded by the pollster. That distinction occurred during the 2008 financial sector crash in the final days of George W. Bush’s presidency, when just 7 percent of Americans surveyed said they were satisfied with where the country was heading. The same week that Gallup recorded that figure, however, 57 percent of Republicans said they still approved of the job Bush was doing.

The problem for Trump, however, is that despite today’s hyperpartisan political environment, Americans have been moving away from the Republican Party. Since January, when the GOP enjoyed a 2-percentage-point lead over Democrats in terms of party self-identification, Americans have shifted, giving Democrats an 11-point edge by the end of June, according to another Gallup poll.

“Although the public does not have to be highly satisfied for incumbents to be reelected, the current level of satisfaction sits well below the low-water mark (33%) at which an incumbent has won reelection in the past,” Gallup said on its website.
_______________

Man, even the GOPers are tired of "winning".

[Bigfella]

That's what cracks me up about these far-right idiots. They're anti-government but then Trump takes office and they turn into boot-licking sheep, demanding that people obey the government (the same one that's snatching people off the street in unmarked vans)

Most of them also seem to fall over themselves to find an excuse every time an unarmed man or woman of colour is killed by police. It would be comical if it weren't so tragic.

During one of the debates I used to have on gun control I ended up in one of those arguments about Nazi firearms policies. Of course, the 'gun rights' folks always talked like they would be the ones forming up militias to oppose Hitler & implied that Hitler took everyone's guns, thus preventing this heroic opposition to tyranny. A bit of reading uncovered that Hitler did indeed take guns....from militant left wingers (what ANTIFA would be if they were a tiny fraction as violent as Trumpers imagine they are) and non-citizens, which Jews soon became. What also came to light was that for virtually every German citizen Nazi era gun laws made it easier to obtain weapons than it had been in Weimar Germany.

Turns out that the people with the guns didn't have that much of a problem with Hitler until it was far too late to do anything. Funny that. While Trump isn't a wannabe Hitler and the vast majority of his supporters aren't wannabe Nazis, no US President has leaned so heavily toward tyranny since Nixon, and he did so in an era when the committment to democratic norms was far greater among the political class. It is clear that far from using their precious guns to oppose tyranny, Trumpers would use them to defend him as he seized power.

[DOR]

There has been a decades long campaign from parts of the GOP & its supporters (and funders) to undermine trust in government & public institutions. It goes beyond the usual corruption/ineptitude that all systems/parties inevitably produce. Trump isn't consciously a part of that, but to a considerable extent his election & Administration is a product of it. Ironically they might have produced something so utterly dysfunctional and hostile to any meanigful concept of government that it crashes & burns under its own weight.

^^^
What he said.

(This is getting repetitive.)

[TopHatter]

About A Fourth Of Americans Think Trump Has Kept His Campaign Promises

With months left until President Donald Trump faces reelection, only about one-quarter of Americans say he has lived up to most of his campaign promises, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey finds.

Just 26% of Americans say Trump has lived up to most of his campaign promises, with an additional 16% expecting him to do so in the future. The plurality, 42%, say he’s unlikely to do so.

More than three years ago, as Trump marked his 100th day in office, 9% believed he had already achieved his campaign promises, 31% that he would and 44% that he was unlikely to fulfill them. In polling since, the share expecting Trump to fail has remained relatively steady.

Results remain sharply divided along political lines, although the president’s opponents are more universal in their negativity than his backers are in their support. Sixty percent of voters who supported Trump in 2016 say he’s already lived up to most of his goals, 22% that he’s likely to and just 11% that he’s unlikely to do so. An 83% majority of voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the last election say Trump is unlikely to live up to his promises.

Americans say, 48% to 30%, that Trump’s policy positions as president are largely similar to the ones he espoused as a candidate. Most stand by their choices from 2016: Only 3% of Clinton voters and a slightly higher 7% of Trump voters say they regret their votes in that election. A more substantial minority of nonvoters, 22%, say they regret not having cast a ballot.

Just 6% of Americans say they believe Trump has succeeded in “draining the swamp,” with a quarter saying he’s likely to accomplish that in office and 49% that he’s unlikely to do so. Seventeen percent believe he’s succeeded in making America great again, with 24% expecting him to do this and 47% saying he’s unlikely to do so. By contrast, half or more say Trump has accomplished or will accomplish naming a new Supreme Court justice, temporarily banning refugees from some Muslim-majority counties and renegotiating trade deals with other countries.

Asked which three of the listed campaign promises they most want to see the president keep, 38% of Americans pick bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., with 26% naming “draining the swamp” and 20% choosing Trump’s vow to make America great again. Fewer than 1 in 5 selected any of the other options, including the president’s promise to build a wall on the southern border and make Mexico pay for it, or to repeal President Barack Obama’s health care law.

Notably, the emphasis of Trump’s supporters has shifted. Most Trump voters now say their priorities from the president’s list of campaign promises include “draining the swamp” (53%) and restoring manufacturing jobs (51%). Only 27% now list building a wall on the Mexican border as among the three promises of the highest importance to them, down from 39% in 2018, when it was one of the promises his voters most wanted to see kept. Similarly, just 22% now cite repealing the Affordable Care Act as among Trump’s most important campaign promises, down from 44% in a 2017 poll taken before the Republican Party largely abandoned the idea.
______________

There's that 25% of True Believers again.

[DOR]

There has been a decades long campaign from parts of the GOP & its supporters (and funders) to undermine trust in government & public institutions. It goes beyond the usual corruption/ineptitude that all systems/parties inevitably produce. Trump isn't consciously a part of that, but to a considerable extent his election & Administration is a product of it. Ironically they might have produced something so utterly dysfunctional and hostile to any meanigful concept of government that it crashes & burns under its own weight.

^^^
What he said.

[GVChamp]

no, -some- 2010s GOP voters are not as racist as 1980s Democratic voters.

the big but, though, is that the GOP base is racist as all get out. the anti-immigration types-- and that's the true base of the party-- aren't even -hiding- it anymore.

without the so-called "culturally anxious", the modern-day GOP would be where it was in the 1960s, as you said: a largely Northeastern fiscally conservative rump party that gets creamed in national elections every time.

WITH the culturally anxious, the modern-day GOP gets creamed what, on a popular vote margin 6 out of 7 times.

I do agree with you that it's popular precisely when it's not fiscally conservative.



if the ACA was that unpopular -- and it would have been MORE unpopular with conservative asks baked in-- then one wonders how 2010/2014 midterm Democrats would have increased their legislative presence. how many times has that happened in US history?



no, the failing is primarily due to the audiences each party seeks to attract.

Republicans have leaned in on becoming a white rural party.

Democrats have leaned in on becoming an diverse urban party with suburbia increasingly falling into their orbit.

that's why you mention that "the Progressives are simply going to do what they will do in 10 years and there's nothing that Pelosi and Schumer can do to meaningfully constrain them." in large part, it's because of this sorting. North Carolina is on the precipice of becoming a new Virginia; it's where Virginia was in 2008, more or less. Georgia is probably 4 years behind North Carolina. and Texas is 4 years behind Georgia.

If the conservatives marry themselves to the ACA, then all the unattractive policy choices required to make the ACA popular get foisted on the GOP. Who is making unions pay more for healthcare? The GOP. Who is imposing the mandate? The GOP. Who is making deductibles and premiums so high? Don't blame us, it's the GOP.

If you are interested the last time it happened, it was the entire 1980s. It wasn't until the GOP decided to start playing hardball that they blew the Dems out of the water: they played nice, according to your rules, got stuck with the blame on everything, and everyone besides Reagan lost. You need to actually stand up for your principles if you expect anyone to actually vote for you. Why is the budget screwed up? The GOP let the payroll taxes expire and Bush tax Cuts on upper income earners expire: don't blame us, the GOP won't let us raise taxes even more. Don't blame us, the GOP wants massive spending cuts. Don't blame us for the shitty state of the financial sector even after Obama got his bill passed, it's the fault of the GOP for not letting us break up the big banks. Don't blame us for education, it's the GOP not letting us spend more on schools and universal Pre-K, because schools have done such a bang-up job with the 5-18 crowd that we obviously should give them control of education for everyone under 5 too. Don't blame us for....

There is no political incentive to sign on for any of these things, except for the taxes because the tax cuts were destined to sunset. All of these things earned the GOP no policy gain at all and earned real political ire from their base for the people who voted for them. The GOP senators who DID decide to play nice are now hated by both sides instead of just being hated by one.

Re: failings. People have natural leanings, that's not what I mean. I mean the major obstacle to achieving better political results is not the politicians, it is the citizenry. The citizenry has every means at their disposal to force the kind of behavior that they want, and the behavior of modern politicians shows what they want. Reality Show TV President coming after a decade of Reality Show culture is not a coincidence. Political results were better off when the parties themselves had more means to enforce discipline.

[DOR]

If the conservatives marry themselves to the ACA, then all the unattractive policy choices required to make the ACA popular get foisted on the GOP. Who is making unions pay more for healthcare? The GOP. Who is imposing the mandate? The GOP. Who is making deductibles and premiums so high? Don't blame us, it's the GOP.

If you are interested the last time it happened, it was the entire 1980s. It wasn't until the GOP decided to start playing hardball that they blew the Dems out of the water: they played nice, according to your rules, got stuck with the blame on everything, and everyone besides Reagan lost. You need to actually stand up for your principles if you expect anyone to actually vote for you. Why is the budget screwed up? The GOP let the payroll taxes expire and Bush tax Cuts on upper income earners expire: don't blame us, the GOP won't let us raise taxes even more. Don't blame us, the GOP wants massive spending cuts. Don't blame us for the shitty state of the financial sector even after Obama got his bill passed, it's the fault of the GOP for not letting us break up the big banks. Don't blame us for education, it's the GOP not letting us spend more on schools and universal Pre-K, because schools have done such a bang-up job with the 5-18 crowd that we obviously should give them control of education for everyone under 5 too. Don't blame us for....

There is no political incentive to sign on for any of these things, except for the taxes because the tax cuts were destined to sunset. All of these things earned the GOP no policy gain at all and earned real political ire from their base for the people who voted for them. The GOP senators who DID decide to play nice are now hated by both sides instead of just being hated by one.

Re: failings. People have natural leanings, that's not what I mean. I mean the major obstacle to achieving better political results is not the politicians, it is the citizenry. The citizenry has every means at their disposal to force the kind of behavior that they want, and the behavior of modern politicians shows what they want. Reality Show TV President coming after a decade of Reality Show culture is not a coincidence. Political results were better off when the parties themselves had more means to enforce discipline.

You are talking about the year-after-year unprecedented budget deficits, blow-the-national-debt-out-of-all-proportion 1980s, aren’t you? That’s the decade you’re referring to?

Really?

[astralis]

GVChamp,

If the conservatives marry themselves to the ACA, then all the unattractive policy choices required to make the ACA popular get foisted on the GOP. Who is making unions pay more for healthcare? The GOP. Who is imposing the mandate? The GOP. Who is making deductibles and premiums so high? Don't blame us, it's the GOP.

most people will blame the incumbent President and the holders of the legislative majorities for failings...which is why Dems got it in the neck in 2010, and then in 2014. (and of course, why the GOP will very likely get it in the neck this year.)

I highly doubt that had the GOP held its nose and let, say, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins vote for it to give the ACA the fig leaf of being "bipartisan", it would have spelled political disaster for the GOP.

If you are interested the last time it happened, it was the entire 1980s. It wasn't until the GOP decided to start playing hardball that they blew the Dems out of the water: they played nice, according to your rules, got stuck with the blame on everything, and everyone besides Reagan lost. You need to actually stand up for your principles if you expect anyone to actually vote for you. Why is the budget screwed up? The GOP let the payroll taxes expire and Bush tax Cuts on upper income earners expire: don't blame us, the GOP won't let us raise taxes even more. Don't blame us, the GOP wants massive spending cuts. Don't blame us for the shitty state of the financial sector even after Obama got his bill passed, it's the fault of the GOP for not letting us break up the big banks. Don't blame us for education, it's the GOP not letting us spend more on schools and universal Pre-K, because schools have done such a bang-up job with the 5-18 crowd that we obviously should give them control of education for everyone under 5 too. Don't blame us for....

this is the argument that political victory trumps norms...pun intended.

there's "standing up for your principles" and there's "playing dirty"; these are two different ideas.

Gingrich decided that this was one and the same, and he's opened a Pandora's Box. REDMAP and Mitch McConnell followed. the GOP has burned down norms and played "hardball" to compensate for weakening political power; they've benefited richly from it.

as I said, that's why I sincerely hope the next Dem Congress and President blow up the legislative filibuster, and then jam through the statehood of DC, Puerto Rico and maybe even Guam. the GOP must be made to understand that weakening norms is a -double-edged sword-.

Political results were better off when the parties themselves had more means to enforce discipline.

indeed-- the spigot of dark money has severely weakened the power of the party to exercise control.

but not just that. the parties need more avenues for beneficial cooperation. the do-gooders whom got rid of pork barrel spending thought they were making Congress a cleaner place, but that also means that the only way for Congressional members to distinguish themselves is through political theater.