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Thread: 2020 US/Iranian Crisis

  1. #121
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    No one is yet chanting "Death to the US" on Iranian Streets.
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Reduces pressure on the Iranian regime for a quick response and gives them room to manouever
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    2019 street riots up into Dec before Tehran cracked down. Tehran does not trust her own people not to turn an anti-American protest into an anti-government protest. In short, the people and the government are not united in this matter even if, not known at this point, they do share the same view.
    Correction! i found this dated Jan 03 20



    3 cities in Iran, one in Pakistan and the other in the Shia part of Kashmir

  2. #122
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Here's how the world sees it

    Name:  iran us.jpg
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    Restraint means against

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Correction! i found this dated Jan 03 20

    3 cities in Iran, one in Pakistan and the other in the Shia part of Kashmir
    Is it my imagination or do they seem rather tame?

  4. #124
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Well as for hoof in mouth disease we have this now about 52 sites. Seems Iran was divided into two camps regarding the Soleimani and was quite heated pro and con. Of course, the comment about cultural sites immediately turned that around to pissing off all Iranians as would be expected. If you want to piss off an entire population, then hit their cultural sites whether in Iran, Thailand, Russia, China, Japan or France, etc, is a sure fire way of doing it.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by m a x View Post
    On the contrary. Both sides have already started to show they are preparing for the worst case scenario.
    Worst case scenario is Iranian rocket delivered cholrine gas onto American barracks followed by American nuclear retalliation. No one is doing that.

    Quote Originally Posted by m a x View Post
    There were reports of Iranian rocket forces taking position on a full combat readiness to response massively at maximum to potential strike over their territory.
    Don't fall for the propaganda. Most Iranian rockets are liquid fueled. The fuel is extremely volitie and very corrosive. Liquid fueled rockets are known to explode if they stored fuel too long. Hence, they are mostly unfueled until needed. Once fueled and not used, the rocket must be drained and flushed with a cleanser and any corroded seal/gasket must be replaced.

    Normal Iranian practice is to keep the rockets in storage and unfueled. What they are doing now is to move their rockets out of storage and along with fuel trucks to their launch sites. The rockets are by no means readied for launch at a minutes notice. They would required at least an hour to prep for launch.

    Quote Originally Posted by m a x View Post
    Trump himself declared he is employing most advanced weaponry, the USA has just payed for to acquire. So, You expect the „Pentagon“ would try to save from resources, after tit-for-tat process is initiated, really /?/
    Do you even know the war stocks that Iran and the US pocesse? They're not even close to each other. The US military is meant to fight two Iraq style wars in two different locations across the globe. In this scenario, the US is perfectly capable of marching to Tehran and clobbering a Russian column in Europe at the same time.

    In your life time, the US fought a full war and a half war at the same time (Iraq and Afghanistan). So, yes, the US is far more capable and far more weaponry than Iran could even dream of. In my time, we were expected to fight two and half war at the same time. Facing the Soviets at the Fulda Gap. Protecting Japan against the Soviet Far East. And killing North Korea at the same time.

    The term mouse against a lion is more than apt.

    Quote Originally Posted by m a x View Post
    Not exactly, in terms of expectations along the possible scenarios. We know from the past, par example, that it is never what the Americans promise to be, quick, precise, without complications, for a period of time. All around where the USA „Pentagon“' has intervened there are endless wars with novel developments, stages and actors, humanitarian catastrophes, massive refuge waves etc.
    A military historian you are not. You just described wars of national survival to be followed by insurgencies since the days of Hamarabi.

    What you FAILED to perceived that wars of NOT national survival ends very well for the victor. The loser agrees to terms of surrender, pays tribute (gold, silver, slaves, mercenaris) and then teams up with the victor to rob a 3rd guy.

    Quote Originally Posted by m a x View Post
    As a matter of fact the World is now facing beginning of this N E W W A R as a result of the previous "decisive" actions. Does anybody really believe it has not been predictable at first place? That they are so stupid indeed to not see and tell their President what is come to happen if he unleashes the rocket strikes
    I served at a time when there were 60,000+ nuclear warheads. We're down to less than 10,000 active warheads now though reserves still number in 10s of 1000s.

    This is nothing.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 07 Jan 20, at 03:05.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Well as for hoof in mouth disease we have this now about 52 sites. Seems Iran was divided into two camps regarding the Soleimani and was quite heated pro and con. Of course, the comment about cultural sites immediately turned that around to pissing off all Iranians as would be expected. If you want to piss off an entire population, then hit their cultural sites whether in Iran, Thailand, Russia, China, Japan or France, etc, is a sure fire way of doing it.
    Genghis Khan method.

    Don't piss me off or I will steamroll you. Islamic countries pissed him off. He butchered Islamic Holy Sites in return.

    I don't think the DOD at this point cares about winning the hearts and minds in Iran.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    So MAGA means bringing the US to the same level as the Taliban and ISIS.
    Iranians have been supporting the Taliban. Iran Is More Deeply Tied to ISIS Than You Think

    When I read about Anti-war protests in the USA during the Vietnam war it stops me to make sweeping generalizations and calling out left-liberals that they are very close to committing a Treason.

    If the problem is the Method, not the madness like another member has been continuously accusing Trump of then it is not only hypocritical but very subjective debate and adds no value. Your personal hate for Trump can not wish away the Wars your country has been fighting affecting millions if not billions.

    Warnings of Counter value and counterstrike attacks are part of establishing the Deterrence. Both directly address the policy or decision-makers, not the people; neither is attached to how people are behaving on the streets. No one was shouting 'Death of USA' in Nagasaki and Hiroshima when your country attacked them with Nukes.

    Any watcher worth his salt from either side or in Russia and China or your Generals hardly cares about Trump's eccentricities. Fortunately, they are not the victim of Trump Derangement Syndrom. The reality is you behave whichever Liberal or non-Liberal way no one likes you on this planet especially the region now in focus. Your salvation is in Conflict and dominance. Like I said in the Indian context that there are bigger games at play. I call it 'THE RUSSIAN ALGORITHM' and it is a continuation of the Cold War.
    Last edited by ambidex; 07 Jan 20, at 02:59.

  8. #128
    Senior Contributor surfgun's Avatar
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  9. #129
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Genghis Khan method.

    Don't piss me off or I will steamroll you. Islamic countries pissed him off. He butchered Islamic Holy Sites in return.

    I don't think the DOD at this point cares about winning the hearts and minds in Iran.
    Well butchering is kind of out of fashion today. At least for the big players.

  10. #130
    Senior Contributor anil's Avatar
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    The US(and its allies) knows that it cannot repell an oil embargo impossed by the shias. In the far east, fat boy has enough missiles to sink south Korea. Both elements acted as a deterrent against the US.

    Cherry on top, the introduction of nukes by both have established an ultimate deterrent. The han surely know how to play the great game.
    Last edited by anil; 07 Jan 20, at 07:24.

  11. #131
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    West Asia tension | US takes away Iran’s trump cards

    Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

    It seems the first thing to go out of the window when a major event happens is common sense. Starting from the raising of the Red Flag over Jamkaran Mosque in Qom (simply signifying the unjust spilling of blood, not ‘severe war’) to predicting a Third World War, all we have is hyperbole shorn of facts. In such a situation it is probably best to look at what Iran’s options are and why things may actually be more stable now.

    Iran is severely disadvantaged in conventional military terms vis--vis its Sunni neighbours. With a mere hundred effective aircraft it faces almost 500 Arab aircraft vastly more advanced than anything it has, not to mention the US fleet stationed in Bahrain. It was precisely to combat these odds that the Iranian came up with a two-pronged strategy. They couldn’t combat their neighbours conventionally, so they chose to combat them above and below the conventional layer, which is to say nuclear at the top end and terrorism/asymmetric warfare (which for the purposes of this article we will call ‘sub-conventional warfare’) at the bottom end.

    The problem with sub-conventional warfare is, it leaves one open to severe conventional retaliation. So for example, when Hezbollah or Hamas attack Israel, Israel almost always responds with conventional force. This is fine for both Hezbollah and Hamas who are either not part of government (and hence not responsible for governance failure) or running a failed government desperate for external diversions. In short either they have nothing to lose or pass on the losses to the population.

    Iran, unlike these two, is a strong functional state albeit in economic doldrums. This is compounded by the fact that since 2017 Iran has seen an organic opposition emerge, as opposed to the fake moderates represented by former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former President Hassan Rouhani who were just as corrupt and bloodthirsty when they served under Ayatollah Khomeini as Khamenei is today. This restricts Khamenei’s freedom of action as he has to be extremely cautious about genuine internal opposition.

    Whatever the domestic considerations, there is no denying that sub-conventional warfare have been a great force multiplier for Iranian foreign policy. We should not forget that it was through the adroit exploitation of these tactics and a willingness to accept massive human losses that Iran has created the ‘Shia Arc’ from Lebanon through Syria, Iraq, and ending in Yemen with all these states effectively being subordinate allies or outright protectorates of Iran.

    This is a kind of influence that the Shah (who was in a much better military position) couldn’t have achieved in his wildest dreams, and it is no exaggeration to say that Khamenei actually expanded Iranian suzerainty over a greater area than the Sassanid Empire ever did. However, such bold sub-conventional moves always need a nuclear umbrella. This is why, North Korea and Pakistan can be far more outrageous in their support of cross border terrorism, and this was why Iran was moving towards nuclear weapons.

    This is where the Iran nuclear deal comes in. What former US President Barack Obama promised the Iranians was that if they gave up nuclear weapons, the world would lift sanctions that had been imposed in Iran not just for pursuing nuclear weapons but also for terrorism. In effect what it meant was that if Iran agreed to give up nukes, the US and west would not just give them regime survival guarantees but also turn a blind eye to Iranian terrorism. Rightly this deal made Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and most of the GCC (some of the biggest victims of Iranian terror) apoplectic.

    US President Donald Trump responded to this in two ways. One is that he withdrew from the nuclear deal essentially challenging Iran to go nuclear (Iran knowing full well that certain red lines would draw an American military response). The problem, however, was that being under renewed US sanctions, Iran felt it had the freedom to carry out sub-conventional actions with impunity as it always had. This is what Trump’s second action — killing Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force — blocked off.

    As a result, today Iran is stuck without both its aces — it can’t go nuclear without facing a full blown US military strike, and it can’t resort to terror without its leadership being targeted. Net result? Iran can’t match the US and its Gulf allies conventionally, Iran can’t go nuclear and Iran can’t resort to terrorism. The real question now is what will Iran do given that its 40-year-old playbook just got flushed down the drain?

    Knowing that the Iranians are past masters of diplomacy and turning disadvantage into advantage, no doubt the Iranians will come up with some counter. However, the way its security is structured, it will require a whole different paradigm. Till then, at least for a few years, we will see stability — ‘West Asia style stability’ which is never very stable anyway.

    Abhijit Iyer-Mitra is a defence economist and senior fellow at Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. Twitter: @iyervval. Views are personal.

  12. #132
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Is it my imagination or do they seem rather tame?
    I can't tell if it was part of the funeral only. It isn't a protest by itself.

  13. #133
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    Germany has withdrawn all troops from central Iraq (Baghdad and Taji air base) overnight, moving them to al-Azraq air base and to Kuwait. Bundeswehr troops in autonomous Kurdistan are staying so far, subject to discussions to be held bilaterally with the Iraqi government.
    Numbers of course are minimal, it's more of a symbolic gesture.

  14. #134
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    So, they are piling up on the worst scenario, regardless of how it is named in concrete terms. And this again is not just the President, but the same Neo-conservative nest, greedy for profit on oil and war-industrial, already high-tech in Space complex, where Lindsey Graham is now placed as sort of public relations spearhead. As of 2020, with Donald Trump on the agenda, whom they've helped to get elected, apparently, having more Zio-fascist face. Don't know whether George W. Bush was really stupid to serve their incantations, as far as nobody even think of seeking Justice for these people within the United States of America, it makes the entire nation guilty of crimes. In UK at least there was Chilcot Inquiry, although Tony Blair has yet escaped an effective prosecution. War-crimes Trump suggests they are ready to do again, which is how to interpret the note for targeting cultural sites. All the foreign policy business they do, as soon as they get the button power these decades, is to make another War, with focus on the oil-rich, Muslim region, South of Europe and Asia. Lying to the People war-doing business has something along with God's will. Even historically, there is just no such Mathematics of letting such Crimes stay without Justice at last
    Last edited by m a x; 07 Jan 20, at 14:56.

  15. #135
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    Oh for Pete sakes! Alexander The Great. The Roman Empire (both Rome and Constinople). The various Persian Empires. Genghis Khan. The Mumluks. Timur. The Seljiks. The Ottomans. Trump and his clique could not hold a candle to these butchers!

    You want to rag on Trump. Go ahead but you're posting in a forum full of military men. At least educate yourself on the ground realities before you jump into fantasy.

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