2020 US/Iranian Crisis

[Parihaka]

BAGHDAD, (ST)- Five rockets targeted on Saturday the Green Zone in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, where the US embassy is located, as well as the Balad Airbase where US troops are stationed in the north of Baghdad.
Citing a police source, Al-Sumaria news website said that a mortar shell also fell in al-Jaderya area injuring three people.
"Two Katyusha rockets directed towards the American embassy fell close to the embassy," a source in the special squad in charge of protecting the Green Zone told SANA correspondent in Baghdad.
The source added that the two rockets caused no human casualties but only material damage to some cars.
On his part, Major-General Sahi al-Ameri, commander of the Balad Airbase in Salah al-Din province in central Iraq, revealed that three mortar shells fell in the base, part of which is used by the American forces as a camp.
Al-Ameri said that "the three shells, one of which landed on the runway, caused material damage and injured three Iraqis."
The attacks came just a day after a US airstrike assassinated Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy chief of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), in the Iraqi capital.
Four other Iranians and four more Iraqis in their company were also martyred.
Hamda Mustafa

Source

[ambidex]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93975732527112

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
✔
@AOC
This is a war crime.

Threatening to target and kill innocent families, women and children - which is what you’re doing by targeting cultural sites - does not make you a “tough guy.”

It does not make you “strategic.”
It makes you a monster.

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1213654724282593280

How on earth word 'monster' is an antithesis of the word 'strategic'?

Is she running for Presidency?

[m a x]

52 Iranian targets

Following Trump's threatening tweeplomacy, how many of those targets do You think would actually be hit, given the Iranian anti-air systems? They've bought Russian C300 recently, so the „Pentagon“ is going to use something to override this defense. Are We going to witness some massive counterattack of the Iranian rocket forces against any valuable military entity USA have in the region? Is the Iranian fleet able at all to destroy American submarines that potentially would be involved into the mess

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93975732527112

[Double Edge]

Following Trump's threatening tweeplomacy, how many of those targets do You think would actually be hit, given the Iranian anti-air systems?

None!

Think of this as the sequel to 'Fire & Fury' for the Iranian govt

Man said he wants to stop a war not start one.

He wants to renegotiate a deal, this is his way of popping the question

Chance to get the nobel peace prize with Kim fell through but there is always Iran : )

[m a x]

Iran's response to the killing of gen. Soleimani will certainly be military, Hossein Dehghan, former defense minister and adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/05/middl...ntl/index.html

[ambidex]

Following Trump's threatening tweeplomacy, how many of those targets do You think would actually be hit, given the Iranian anti-air systems? They've bought Russian C300 recently, so the „Pentagon“ is going to use something to override this defense. Are We going to witness some massive counterattack of the Iranian rocket forces against any valuable military entity USA have in the region? Is the Iranian fleet able at all to destroy American submarines that potentially would be involved into the mess

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...93975732527112

It is a technical question. In my understanding, the USA can hit all of them. By Anti-air systems, you mean Air defence systems are not foolproof. S-300 has it own share of failures and there are effective solutions available to counter it.

Russia’s air defences can’t stop Israel from stomping on Iran in Syria with airstrikes


Iran ‘Angry’ over Failure to Activate S-300 System in Syria

[ambidex]

The kind of visuals coming from Iran I think there may be imminent internal security challenges to the USA.

[Double Edge]

Iran's response to the killing of gen. Soleimani will certainly be military, Hossein Dehghan, former defense minister and adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/05/middl...ntl/index.html

The military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan said Iran would retaliate directly against US "military sites."

ok, so let them have at it. If they can. They consider CENTCOM a terrorist entity.

"It might be argued that there could be proxy operations. We can say America, Mr. Trump, has taken action directly against us -- so we take direct action against America."

My argument in the other thread was it would be Iran's proxies that would be hitting back aka asymmetric because Iran lacks the conventional strength here.

The United States has a growing military presence in the region. Thousands of US troops have been deployed to Saudi Arabia, and there are some 5,000 at bases in Iraq. The US also has a major air base in Qatar and a naval presence in Bahrain, as well as troops stationed in Jordan, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

In common with other Iranian officials, Dehghan suggested that Iran was in no hurry to retaliate and would choose its targets carefully. "Our reaction will be wise, well considered and in time, with decisive deterrent effect."

Right, at a time and place of their choosing. So there will be a lull and in this time the Americans will be able to throw in offers.

If one takes the Iran goal of pushing the US out of the ME, any attacks on those bases will be counter productive. Meaning they will increase the will of those countries to continue hosting the Americans. See the problem ?

Late Saturday, President Donald Trump tweeted that "If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!"

Fire & Fury (the sequel)

Iran will be faced with an American president with a gun in one hand and a big sack of cash in the other aka deal.

Which option will Iran choose is the question ?

Dehghan responded defiantly to Trump's warning.

"It was America that has started the war. Therefore, they should accept appropriate reactions to their actions," he said.
"The only thing that can end this period of war is for the Americans to receive a blow that is equal to the blow they have inflicted. Afterward they should not seek a new cycle."

The man forgets history. The Americans have taken plenty of blows from Iran and its proxies over an extended period of time already.

In recent months, officials in the Trump administration and even the President himself have floated the possibility of renewed dialogue with Iran. Dehghan dismissed that possibility.

"Look, for several reasons we didn't want to negotiate with this incumbent US administration. Now, after what happened to Mr. Soleimani there is no point for negotiations or relations. It's impossible."

Well, that remains to be seen. Americans don't have just a military option.

Dehgahn also responded to Trump's threat to include Iranian cultural sites among 52 targets the US had selected to strike in the event of Iranian retaliation. The number was chosen to match the number of hostages taken in the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy, Trump said.

Dehghan said the tweets were ridiculous and absurd. "If he says 52 we say 300 -- and they are accessible to us," Dehghan said. "No American military staff, no American political center, no American military base, no American vessel will be safe.

"He doesn't know international law. He doesn't recognize UN resolutions either. Basically he is a veritable gangster and a gambler."

Bluster

I guess gangster & gambler sounds better than dotard : )

[Double Edge]

Looking at this issue from Indian prism is understandable but very problematic at the same time especially when we tend to make moral judgements like few journalists have already started to make by accusing the USA doing similar kind of interference in these states and promoting violence.

Agree, I find Indian commentary fearful. We are projecting our fears on to the situation.

Everybody seems 100% confident the Iranians won't take this sitting down and things will get worse with attendant consequences. Oil price hike, repatriation of expatriates etc.

This is why i keep repeating what the DoD said

Pre-emptive counter terror strike.

What Trump says gels with that line

Prevent a war not begin one.

Si vis pacem, para bellum is very much in play here

The overwhelming sentiment is nobody messes with Iran

THAT is the problem. Unless some one does then Iran gets a free run over the region.

Americans had to be stand up and be counted

Either that or they should pack up and leave the ME !!

[Double Edge]

What exactly was an Iranian general doing in Iraq ?

Can Iran answer this one

[ambidex]

Agree, I find Indian commentary fearful. We are projecting our fears on to the situation.

Everybody seems 100% confident the Iranians won't take this sitting down and things will get worse.

This is why i keep mentioning what the DoD said

Pre-emptive counter terror strike.

What Trump says gels with that line

Prevent a war not begin one.

Si vis pacem, para bellum is very much in play here

1+

The realism is, the game Trump or USA is playing is beyond our control.

Projecting our fears onto the situation to an extent that we end up investing in a discourse that starts building certain domestic opinion which ends up putting pressure on the dispensation. It should be all about learning from it and how to use this swayed away attention. A self-imposed dilemma we love to debate will be which side to support now.
:)

[Double Edge]

Whatever the outcome in terms of financial loses that we may incur the take away for us is the lesson to build capacity to preempt against Pakistani terror enterprise (which you have already mentioned).

We do this with the cooperation of other world powers

If we want them to acknowledge our terrorists then we acknowledge theirs

If we have a right to self defense then so do they

The legality of pre-emption is a settled issue AFAIK

A self-imposed dilemma we love to debate will be which side to support now.
:)

Both!

This is a bilateral matter and we support a peaceful resolution of the outstanding dispute.

[Oracle]

The issue is - far-right extremist Indians have always considered US as an enemy. Vis-a-vis Pak, ofcourse. Geo-politics, or national interests never made a nest in their empty brains. US supports Pak, so they're the double-dealing son-of-a-bitch. India has been that SOB before, do we remember Sri Lanka? Bangladesh perhaps?

Extremist ends of both the left and the right pisses me off. So fcuk you for contributing. Now, back off. There will never be another Nazi regime anywhere.

And what peaceful resolution? A Shia head went down yesterday, a Sunni head will go down tomorrow. The thing to ask is, does India got the guts, or in simple fckuing english, the balls to do anything about those Sunni heads? I don't think so, nor does Mr. PM Modi.

Spin and spin and spin. Yeah, like spinning will do wonders. It doesn't. Spinning only makes your grandma's woolen underwear.

*Death to America*

[Officer of Engineers]

The Iranians practically said that they will limit their response: "at a time and place of our choosing." Tehran knows full well that they cannot embark on a military mission. The US will see their build up from a 1000 miles away. The US is practically readied and waiting for such a scenario - with overwhelming force. This ESSENTIALLY means that the Iranians will choose a place and time when there is no such readiness and alert status ... and that ain't no military installation readied to destroy any bn or above size force.

[m a x]

What exactly was an Iranian general doing in Iraq ?
...

Apparently grave mistake for a general at his level, but in the same logic You can ask What the „Pentagon“ is doing in Iraq /?/. Since the claims from Washington over extraterritorial interests are the core problem, causing these issues all around the World. The entire security environment today would've been much better without USA intervention, even for Israel, where progress for two-state solution is expected. There would've been no Syria or Libya crises, and Crimea also would've still been in Ukraine. Instead of arming ourselves now We would've been able to fully commit against climate change. Seems in Washington really treat the rest of the World as Native American population with its resources