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Thread: 2020 US/Iranian Crisis

  1. #241
    Regular m a x's Avatar
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    What USA does there is the question. Focus on Trump is because with more responsible person in office, assassination would've not been allowed. Now Iraq wants American forces out of the country. These forces, who had opened paths for Iran to spread influence, and for ISIS to be born, after breaking the Law with Saddam Hussein, whom they've even not given International Justice as to prevent him speak about the dirty business he had had with them in the past. And while others now try to expand influence in Iraq on legitimate, negotiated basis, Trump, Pompeo and Esper claim, again, they are gonna stay, regardless of what Iraq wants. So, does anybody believe indeed this course will help to win? Eventually, triggering yet another deadly sequence, for arms and oil profit, against the security of European and Asian rivals
    Last edited by m a x; 13 Jan 20, at 18:28.

  2. #242
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Is it my imagination or do they seem rather tame?
    Its not pan iran and the people are already out protesting the regime

    https://twitter.com/Doranimated/stat...24524136886272

    They're killing people : (

    Protesting the regime means refusal to step on the American & Israeli flag : )

  3. #243
    Senior Contributor surfgun's Avatar
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    Article of students refusing to walk on Israeli and USA flags.
    https://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran...i-flags-613944

  4. #244
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jan 20, at 00:36.

  5. #245
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    That's why they couldn't get him earlier

    Name:  mike pregent.JPG
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  6. #246
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Vincennes mistook an A300 for an F14

    Shit happens. These people are not stupid.

    Unless their equipment says otherwise they hit the fire button.

    I'm now beginning to think the same thing happened with that Malaysian flight over Ukraine as well

    You have a better explanation other than an outright rejection then let's hear it.

    It's funny just a week ago from some friends i got this same rejection about your DoD's bulletin for going after Solemaini.

    They could not explain why it was untrue as well.





    That's why Iran came clean ; )
    You fail to understand what stupid means to me. To me it means that either 1) you have the needed training but fail to follow it for expediency or because you know better, or 2) you have the brains but are not interested in learning the subject. I reserve ignorant for those who have the brains but have yet to acquire the needed knowledge and are willing to obtain it. I'd rather be ignorant any day of the week vs. being stupid. In both cases cited people were being stupid no doubt in being over anxious to show whatever.

    Two examples of being stupid:

    You are an experienced A&P mechanic with a major US airline. You are tasked with an R&R engine part on a 737 engine. As per regulations you are to have the manual open despite having done the job many times in the past. You don't and replace the part. Then the inspector comes by and finds the part installed backwards. That is stupid and really happened as I know the inspector.

    You are in a hurry to get a car ready for a picnic car show. You are replacing the the entire top end of the engine from heads, to camshaft, and all in between. You have done it many times in the past but you are under a self imposed deadline. In your haste you pull the wrong lifters from your parts supply. The lifters pulled are not the ones needed for an engine that oils the top end through the pushrods but for one through the rocker shaft. They almost look the same. You also fail to use the gasket for the water pump to the timing cover. That is also stupid as you know better and I certainly do know better but was stupid in my haste. Fortunately water leaked very slowly incredibly enough while the only wear on the top end after camshaft break in was to the rocker arm ball which was easy enough to replace. I was lucky to avoid engine damage due to being stupid which is not the same for those 346 killed.

  7. #247
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    You fail to understand what stupid means to me. To me it means that either 1) you have the needed training but fail to follow it for expediency or because you know better, or 2) you have the brains but are not interested in learning the subject. I reserve ignorant for those who have the brains but have yet to acquire the needed knowledge and are willing to obtain it. I'd rather be ignorant any day of the week vs. being stupid. In both cases cited people were being stupid no doubt in being over anxious to show whatever.

    Two examples of being stupid:

    You are an experienced A&P mechanic with a major US airline. You are tasked with an R&R engine part on a 737 engine. As per regulations you are to have the manual open despite having done the job many times in the past. You don't and replace the part. Then the inspector comes by and finds the part installed backwards. That is stupid and really happened as I know the inspector.

    You are in a hurry to get a car ready for a picnic car show. You are replacing the the entire top end of the engine from heads, to camshaft, and all in between. You have done it many times in the past but you are under a self imposed deadline. In your haste you pull the wrong lifters from your parts supply. The lifters pulled are not the ones needed for an engine that oils the top end through the pushrods but for one through the rocker shaft. They almost look the same. You also fail to use the gasket for the water pump to the timing cover. That is also stupid as you know better and I certainly do know better but was stupid in my haste. Fortunately water leaked very slowly incredibly enough while the only wear on the top end after camshaft break in was to the rocker arm ball which was easy enough to replace. I was lucky to avoid engine damage due to being stupid which is not the same for those 346 killed.
    So what you described is a failure to follow procedure. Thanks for taking the trouble to explain. But I don't think that happened here.

    I'd say they followed procedure to the t given the gravity of the situation.

    You see a blip on the radar you have limited time to decide whether its a threat or not.

    Atmosphere is tense as hostilities have begun.

    You are expecting something but not sure what.

    Do you not see how errors in judgement can occur in such a scenario ?

    They admitted they would use better equipment in the future.

    Which means they had no clue what they were dealing with and decided to play it safe.

    My guys could not distinguish a helo from a missile. Vincennes could not tell an A300 from a F14

    Likely these people could not tell a 737 from something more ominous and the 737 from what i understand had a working transponder which means it could have been queried. Did they not receive a reply in time and decide to act. Was the equipment that receives this signal working or not. Did they even have equipment to query the transponder.

    It seems crazy that pros can make such mistakes
    Last edited by Double Edge; 14 Jan 20, at 12:02.

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    You fail to understand what stupid means to me. To me it means that either 1) you have the needed training but fail to follow it for expediency or because you know better, or 2) you have the brains but are not interested in learning the subject. I reserve ignorant for those who have the brains but have yet to acquire the needed knowledge and are willing to obtain it. I'd rather be ignorant any day of the week vs. being stupid. In both cases cited people were being stupid no doubt in being over anxious to show whatever.

    Two examples of being stupid:

    You are an experienced A&P mechanic with a major US airline. You are tasked with an R&R engine part on a 737 engine. As per regulations you are to have the manual open despite having done the job many times in the past. You don't and replace the part. Then the inspector comes by and finds the part installed backwards. That is stupid and really happened as I know the inspector.

    You are in a hurry to get a car ready for a picnic car show. You are replacing the the entire top end of the engine from heads, to camshaft, and all in between. You have done it many times in the past but you are under a self imposed deadline. In your haste you pull the wrong lifters from your parts supply. The lifters pulled are not the ones needed for an engine that oils the top end through the pushrods but for one through the rocker shaft. They almost look the same. You also fail to use the gasket for the water pump to the timing cover. That is also stupid as you know better and I certainly do know better but was stupid in my haste. Fortunately water leaked very slowly incredibly enough while the only wear on the top end after camshaft break in was to the rocker arm ball which was easy enough to replace. I was lucky to avoid engine damage due to being stupid which is not the same for those 346 killed.
    I don't know for a fact, but I imagine the SAM radar doesn't see a Transponder or ADS-B output from a transport category aircraft. It likely shows a return low to the ground climbing to altitude profile like say a cruise missile. Maybe the the SAM crew wasn't familiar with the the airports departure procedure. About a week before this an Atlas 747 (US Carrier fly's a lot of DOD but not that day) had an engine problem and penetrated Iranian Airspace. The Iranian were very polite and asked them to vacate the airspace which they did.

    The 737 has only been powered by Pratt and CFM. A lot of blood has been spilled parts are designed so they can only go in one way.

  9. #249
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dazed View Post
    The 737 has only been powered by Pratt and CFM. A lot of blood has been spilled parts are designed so they can only go in one way.
    Possible I have something off in the story. However, the part was installed incorrectly by the A&P. The incident was between 10-20 years ago at a major airline I won't name. The inspector, who is the only inspector I trust implicitly if you catch my drift, had to correct the installation and now is one of the head diagnostic mechanics for the airline.

  10. #250
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Apparently the Iranians accidentally hit the plane with missiles not once but twice. Probably wanted to make sure it was an accident...


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/w...ash-video.html
    Last edited by Parihaka; 15 Jan 20, at 09:53.
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  11. #251
    Regular m a x's Avatar
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    A second missile is usually fired immediately after the first, when there are no proper identification signals from an object and it is considered a threat. The question yet to be answered is why there were no such signals

    Who Targeted Ukraine Airlines Flight 752?
    ...
    The Iranian missile operator reportedly experienced considerable “jamming” and the planes transponder switched off and stopped transmitting several minutes before the missiles were launched. There were also problems with the communication network of the air defense command, which may have been related. ...

    January 15, 2020; by Philip Giraldi
    ahtribune.com/world/north-africa-south-west-asia/iran/3818-who-targeted-ukraine-airlines-flight-752.html
    Last edited by m a x; 22 Jan 20, at 00:18.

  12. #252
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    The remains of the Ukrainian aircrew arrived back two days ago. RIP. Innocent victims of an idiot US President and a fundamentalist Persian theocracy.

  13. #253
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Here's what the opposition won't tell you ; )

    Donald Trump proved the doubters wrong and got it right on Iran with Qassem Soleimani | City AM (op-ed) | Jan 16 2020

    Thursday 16 January 2020 4:38 am
    Alan Mendoza

    When the Middle East crisis broke at the start of this year, many outcomes were predicted by a panicked commentariat in response to the US drone strike on Iran’s terrorist-in-chief, Qassem Soleimani.

    The various theories peddled by such observers fell into two broad camps: that war would inevitably result, or that the west would suffer from the wrath of an Iran united in grief for the loss of a great leader.

    Some particularly emotive souls even conflated both ideas into a combined critique of the foreign policy erraticism and adventurism of their much-loathed target, the Trump administration.

    In an extreme example of this phenomenon, London was last week subjected to a Corbyn-led rally of protesters who delighted in dusting off their old “Stop the War” hats (which should more properly be called “Stop Some Wars”, as it only appears to be conflicts threatening enemies of the west that these people ever want to prevent).


    What was emphatically not foreseen by most, however, was what actually happened: a stunning foreign policy triumph for President Trump, and the unmasking of the Iranians — at least in this round of hostilities — as a bungling paper tiger.

    To give some credit to pessimistic western critics, the crisis might well have led to an expanded conflict. But this was always unlikely, because for the Iranians to have upped the ante to the next level would have meant inviting ever more devastating reactions from the Americans.

    What everyone appeared to have forgotten is that there is no equivalence of power between the US and Iran. On the contrary, Washington’s military capabilities dwarf those of Tehran.

    The only real question was therefore whether the US would rise from its recent strategic torpor in the Middle East, and use them.

    This was answered by the Soleimani strike and Trump’s threat to hit 52 targets in case of an Iranian escalation.

    Under such circumstances, an expanded conflict between the two countries — which would not have been a ground invasion but an air campaign designed to disrupt the Iranian regime’s command and control abilities and hamper its ability to continue its repression of its own people — would have only ended with one outcome: the collapse of Iran’s theocracy.

    It doesn’t matter how many terrorist attacks or forms of unconventional warfare a country might be able to unleash if its ruling regime is unable to defend its powerbase on home soil. The ayatollahs could see this clearly, which is why they pulled their punches by missile-striking empty bases in their rush for the exit ramp from conflict.


    All this should have been obvious were western observers not blinded by the idea — or perhaps, in some egregious cases, hope — of perceived US decline. But even this myopia pales into comparison to the extraordinary assumptions made about the Iranian people’s likely response to the death of Soleimani.

    A section of Iran’s population does enthusiastically support the clerical regime. But if this were a genuinely popular government, the ayatollahs would have had no need to shut down the internet at the end of last year to hide the fact that the authorities were butchering an estimated 1,500 of their own citizens in order to prevent escalating unrest.

    Thus, the public mourning for Soleimani did attract crowds. But it was just that part of the population that Iran’s authorities wanted the world to see.

    Many in the west bought the propaganda completely, only to have to eat humble pie when the tragic shooting down of PS752 by Iranian forces and the attempted Iranian cover-up led to a resumption of domestic protests at the sheer incompetence of the regime.

    But by far the greatest sign that the Iran defeatists and doubters got it wrong, and that Trump has got it right, has come this week with the declaration by the UK, France and Germany to refer Iran to the Dispute Resolution Mechanism of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, commonly called the Iran Deal) regulating the country’s nuclear programme.

    Iran has been cheating on the JCPOA terms ever since the Americans withdrew from it in 2018. But desperate to keep the deal alive (rather than renegotiate it to make it more effective, as the Americans wanted), the Europeans did not follow suit, even as Iranian infractions of JCPOA became ever more blatant.

    Now, finally, the three European countries have rediscovered their backbone, and initiated a move that could lead to the snapback of sanctions on Iran in a couple of months. The Trump administration has long sought solidarity from its European allies on this subject. It is no coincidence that it has finally obtained it just after reasserting its own red lines in the region.

    The lesson of all this is simple. Our enemies are not 10 feet tall, much as we might sometimes believe that they are. The west retains tremendous power to shape the world for the better. All it needs is the belief to do so.

    Donald Trump may be an unusual messenger to remind us of this truth, but it is enduring nonetheless.

    City A.M.'s opinion pages are a place for thought-provoking views and debate. These views are not necessarily shared by City A.M.

  14. #254
    Military Professional 667medic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    The remains of the Ukrainian aircrew arrived back two days ago. RIP. Innocent victims of an idiot US President and a fundamentalist Persian theocracy.
    A more apt description is “Innocent victims of an idiot and fundamentalist Persian theocracy.

    Did they really think that they could get away with their recent provocations and not expect a response especially when the architect of the provocations is visiting your turf...
    Seek Save Serve Medic

  15. #255
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    Certainly I blame them but I also blame the idiot US President for his arguably illegal assassination of Soleimie "because he was bad guy" that led upto the Iranian 'mistake'. It is the innocents in any conflict that suffer most as I have seen with my own eyes in Ukraine but that does revoke blame.

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