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Thread: The Impeachment and Trial of Donald John Trump

  1. #46
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The scary part is that it should be lower. Far lower.
    That is what the American media would have you believe in the run up to the last election, ever since and they will do the same in the run up to the next.

    What ever happened to good old fashioned reporting. They used to be called reporters. They reported what they saw and let you make up your mind.

    Now they're called journalists, sit in fancy offices and give us opinions.

    There is a reason i like PBS.

    When the public pays the public is served. When advertisers pay the advertisers are served.

    Can't say the analogy works as well with the BBC these days. It used to in the past.

    Time was people would check the BBC before their local media.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Sep 19, at 08:09.

  2. #47
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    If that's the way you feel, I'm certainly not going to argue the point.
    I mean, it's not like Trump hasn't given people a reason to hate him....other than being a man without a shred of integrity, compassion, empathy, conscience, courage, manners, respect, character, morality or honor.
    A "billionaire" who hides his taxes, a "genius" that hides his college grades, a "businessman" who bankrupted 3 casinos, a "playboy" that pays for sex, a "Christian" that doesn't go to church, a "philanthropist" who defrauds charity, a "patriot" that dodged the draft and an "innocent man" that refuses to testify or allow anyone else in his orbit to do the same.

    Yeah, what's not to hate about a man like Trump that is unfortunately now President of the United States. It's a goddamn mystery.

    But on the plus side, it seems like you now have a better idea of why you've been hearing about impeachment from Day One and why pointing out he won in a free & fair election did not elicit much of a response.
    I think this is the reason he agreed to do a victory lap hand in hand with Modi at the NFL stadium in Houston.

    Who else wants to do that with Trump ; )

    Crowd loved it.

  3. #48
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Do you think Regan had that in mind when he said we are always one election away from a dictatorship ?

    think it was Regan who said it.
    I would have no idea if Reagan said that as I thought it back in the late 60s when he was just a governor.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I think this is the reason he agreed to do a victory lap hand in hand with Modi at the NFL stadium in Houston.

    Who else wants to do that with Trump ; )

    Crowd loved it.
    Could you be more specific, which reason are you referring to?
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The scary part is that it should be lower. Far lower.
    Well said, Sir!
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    joe,
    so much big stuff, no one's talking about stuff like how the Ukrainian President deliberately points out that he's got folks staying at Trump Hotel in an obvious attempt at influencing POTUS.
    Yep, which brings us right back to Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 of the United States Constitution. But hey, at least he's against abortion.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  7. #52
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    Pelosi's party shouldn't be afraid of impeachment, history suggests

    Earlier this week, we explored how the ongoing impeachment drama might reshape the Democratic primary contest and the subsequent presidential election.

    But how could it alter the battle for control of Congress?

    On Thursday, Business Insider released a poll that seemed to sum up the conventional wisdom. Asked whether launching a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s efforts to pressure Ukrainian officials to investigate his political rival Joe Biden would “work out in Democrats’ favor electorally,” 43 percent of respondents said it “probably” or “definitely” would not. Only 32 percent said it probably or definitely would.

    Pundits and partisans have been making the same prediction since the start of Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation in 2017. The American people don’t like impeachment. Congressional Republicans suffered when they impeached Bill Clinton. Ergo, Congressional Democrats will suffer if they impeach Trump.

    For months, this had been House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s rationale for resisting. Yes, the Democratic Party flipped 41 House seats in 2018, enough to regain control of the chamber. But those gains mean that in 2020, dozens of her members will be defending closely divided or even Republican-leaning districts, including 31 that Trump won in 2016. Without a significant shift in public sentiment, the thinking went, initiating an impeachment process likely to end with the GOP-controlled Senate refusing to convict Trump would only imperil those members — and the party’s 17-seat majority.

    Then Ukraine happened, and Pelosi’s stance changed — as did the stances of dozens of vulnerable House Democrats.

    Has the electoral calculus changed as well?

    The short answer is that it didn’t have to; Democrats’ fears were probably overblown to begin with. What all the anxious analysis seems to have overlooked is that not all impeachments are created equal. Some come to be seen as partisan. Others come to be seen as justified.

    Pelosi’s pre-Ukraine worry was that pursuing Trump’s impeachment would come to be seen as partisan. In today’s hyperpolarized context, it still could. But even then, the historical record suggests that partisan impeachments don’t inevitably lead to significant congressional losses for the party that pursued them.

    Recall the Clinton impeachment. Much has been made of the fact that in November 1998, a month after the GOP majority first voted to authorize the impeachment inquiry, Democrats flipped five seats in the House — the first time since 1834 that a president’s party gained House seats in the sixth year of his term. The narrative has long been that Dems were boosted by backlash to impeachment.

    But as the Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein recently pointed out, they didn’t actually get much of a boost. Summing up the total vote for all House races, Republicans received a majority. They kept control of the House. Just 17 seats in total changed hands between the parties, at that time the smallest midterm shift ever. Then, two years later, the same thing happened again: Republicans won the popular vote and preserved their narrow majority. Democrats netted just a single seat. “A ringing endorsement of the political status quo,” concluded one political scientist.

    And the Democrats have other advantages going into 2020. The congressional math back then was far friendlier to Democrats than today’s congressional math is to Republicans. Clinton’s job approval rating hovered in the mid-60s; Trump is mired in the low 40s. And while only 31 House Democrats are set to defend Trump districts next year, 91 Republicans were running for reelection in districts Clinton won in 1996. Over two election cycles, voters ousted just seven of them.

    In other words, Democrats had a much more popular president on their team and a much bigger pool of vulnerable Republicans to target — and they still failed to flip the House. Even if Trump’s impeachment turns out to be as unpopular as Clinton’s — a strictly partisan spectacle, in the eyes of the public — there’s little reason to assume Democrats will suffer devastating electoral consequences as a result.

    And that’s a big if.

    It’s entirely possible that the public, or at least the persuadable part of it, comes to see the Trump impeachment inquiry as justified rather than partisan. There’s some evidence, in fact, that this may be happening already.

    After opposing impeachment at roughly Clinton-era levels for the bulk of the Russia investigation, voters seem to be softening their stance in light of the latest revelations about Ukraine. According to the Business Insider poll, a majority (53 percent) now back the launch of an impeachment inquiry; a near-majority (49 percent) told Marist the same thing. A Morning Consult survey released Thursday found that, since last weekend, overall support for impeachment has risen 7 points while opposition has fallen by 6 points; among independents, the swing was even larger (15 net points). And just 33 percent of respondents told the Business Insider pollsters that they were “extremely” or “very” familiar with the Ukraine situation — meaning that public opinion still has a lot of room to evolve.

    Imagine that, driven by further revelations, investigations, reporting and hearings, public opinion continues to evolve in the direction it’s been evolving so far. Imagine that, over time, impeachment looks more justified, not less. For that, we have only one modern-day precedent: the Richard Nixon impeachment saga.

    The differences between now and then are obvious. Again, partisanship is much more potent now; voters are a lot less moveable. Nixon had just won reelection; Trump intends to be the ballot next November. Back then, a global oil crisis was triggering a recession; today, unemployment is low and the economy seems strong.

    Still, Democrats didn’t face a backlash in November 1974 for forcing Nixon to resign under the threat of impeachment. Much the opposite, in fact: They flipped four seats in the Senate, 49 seats in the House and four governor’s mansions.

    Why? Because the public came to see Nixon’s impeachment as justified. In the beginning, only 19 percent of Americans said Nixon should be removed from office. By the end, 57 percent were onboard.

    To put that in perspective, Business Insider asked whether someone who did what the Ukraine whistleblower has accused Trump of doing — that is, “encourage[ing] a foreign power to intervene in an upcoming domestic election in their favor” — should be investigated and possibly removed from office.

    Forty-nine percent said yes. And this is just the beginning.

    ____________

    I have to say right up front: This could wind up going in the same direction as the Mueller Report (as long as you ignore the multiple instances of Obstruction of Justice and collusion of the Trump Campaign with the Russians), wherein Congress and the public just sort of wander off muttering about...something, instead of taking action against Trump. And even a conviction in the Senate seems highly unlikely....right now.

    But I've got a funny vibe about this. Nearly everything is different, starting with the source of this scandal: The White House and Trump released this information...rather difficult for Trump and the GOP to discredit the source.

    It's also pretty straightforward and simple for the average American: Instead of a turgid 2 volume, 448 page report containing 200,000 words and over 1,100 footnotes...we have just one phone call (there's much more, but we'll pass over that for now) between just two people: Trump and the Ukrainian president, with Trump repeatedly asking for the investigation of a political rival and complaining about a lack of reciprocity on the part of Ukraine for all the good things America has done for them.

    Also, the GOP isn't shielding Trump with their usual fervor. The unanimous Senate vote calling on Trump to release the whistleblower's complaint was downright mind-boggling when you consider their past behavior.
    Their defense of him seems pro forma and almost tepid, again comparing their past behavior.

    And those polling numbers underlined above aren't looking so good for Trump, because the more support for impeachment, the more that the GOP will look to save their own skins. It'll be interesting to see where things are a couple weeks from now, to be sure. Maybe the already-fatigued public will just want the whole thing to go away...but...I don't know. Like I said, funny vibe about this one.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  8. #53
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    I think Pelosi's original concern about Impeachment just firing up the GOP base is still valid. Unlike AOC and her noob-cum-goon squad, Pelosi is an experienced and thinking politician who knows her stuff. But her hand has been forced here by these revelations and she does not have the choice to not-impeach anymore.

    Democrats have this vain hope ever since Trump got elected that one more scandal will somehow make enough of the GOP base ditch Trump when all the previous ones did not. It is sheer insanity and Pelosi knows it, but her hands are tied now. It should be clear to anyone at this point that the GOP base simply does not care how Trump got elected or how he manages to stay in office as long as he does. As long as he says the right things and builds that wall, keeps those pesky immigrants out, protects their guns, appoints staunchly conservative judges to the SC they will not care if he molests women, has affairs with pornstars, colludes with Russia or Ukraine or the frickin Ayatollah if he wants to.

    The GOP base will not flip. And Congressional Republicans know that well. So they won't flip either lest they get booted out. This is not the America of the 70's. I guarantee you that if Watergate happened now the GOP base will cheer that unlike what they did back in Nixon's time. Poor Nixon just happened to be president at the wrong time or he would have completed 2 terms. They believe that all Democrats are crooks anyway so what's the harm in spying on them.

    Democrats' only hope is they choose the right candidate for the next election who will fire up enough of their own base like Obama once did. Clearly, HC wasn't up to the task. It is unfortunate that Pelosi herself will never get a chance to be President. I have a feeling she would have probably been better at actually governing the country than pretty much anyone in the running currently.
    Last edited by Firestorm; 27 Sep 19, at 23:43.

  9. #54
    Senior Contributor Triple C's Avatar
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    DE,

    Rasmussen is a poll of passable quality with a GOP lean and it's just a data point at the end of the day. The real movement over the past days is the apparent surge in the support of impeachment, at about 50-50, by ten points.
    All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
    -Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.

  10. #55
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Could you be more specific, which reason are you referring to?
    He isn't liked all that much from what i can gather. By reason all those things you said. Every body has a favourite laundry list. Every american is an expert on Trump.

    Now which leader wants to hold his hand and do a victory lap with him ?

    I was amazed Trump agreed then on further reflection thought I understood why he agreed.

    The majority of Indian Americans vote Democrat. This is great marketing.

    Modi packed that stadium, 50 k stong.

    Local commentators were saying Trump can't pull even a quarter as much to his rallies which surprised me.

    Seriously ? A sitting president can't do better !!!

    Now somebody will say Trump is again using foreign powers to gain undue advantage : D
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Sep 19, at 09:05.

  11. #56
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Triple C View Post
    DE,

    Rasmussen is a poll of passable quality with a GOP lean and it's just a data point at the end of the day. The real movement over the past days is the apparent surge in the support of impeachment, at about 50-50, by ten points.
    You can see how his approval rating changes by day over the months. Their better products aren't available for free i guess.

    Good enough to get an idea which way the wind is blowing for the layperson ?

    They got their prediction in 2016 right.

    Compare to all of the other polls that got it wrong.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Sep 19, at 09:02.

  12. #57
    Senior Contributor Triple C's Avatar
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    I am not a huge fan of calling one pollster as better than the others based on 2016, as all projections that election year had been within the normal range of plus/minus three points. As for why, who knows? There is the speculation that perhaps this instance of alleged corruption had been easier to understand than Russian interference. Trump supposedly asked the head of another state to get dirt on a political opponent.
    All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
    -Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.

  13. #58
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    He says CNN's polls are voter suppression



    CNN's polls are the reason i have consistently got the last four US presidential elections wrong.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Sep 19, at 13:58.

  14. #59
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    When i want to know how Trump's doing i look up Michael Walsh. Why Walsh ? He got on the road the month before the last elections to gauge what the mood was and called it. He's generally supportive but his last piece isn't encouraging. And that is before this Ukraine thing came up.

    How ‘Trump Trauma’ could hand the Democrats a victory in 2020 | NY Post | Sept 07 2019

    Worst of all are the appointments and policy prescriptions that no conservative could ever endorse: lawyer Christopher Wray as head of a tarnished FBI, now tracking border groups opposed to US immigration policy as “extremist organizations”; and his bruiting of “red flag” laws to preemptively disarm Americans without due process on suspicion of mental illness — including using home-espionage equipment such as Amazon Echo and Apple Watch to collect data on individuals. All of which makes Trump eminently beatable next year.

    That’s the bad news.
    Trump can turn all this around by shutting up and simply doing his job. The American people didn’t elect him to be the star of a round-the-clock reality show. Nor did they designate him to be the boss of us, in the manner to which he’s been accustomed to running the Trump Organization.

    They elected him to be a leader.

    As JFK used to say, “Never complain, never explain.”
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Sep 19, at 14:24.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    As long as he says the right things and builds that wall, keeps those pesky immigrants out, protects their guns, appoints staunchly conservative judges to the SC they will not care if he molests women, has affairs with pornstars, colludes with Russia or Ukraine or the frickin Ayatollah if he wants to.
    Yep, that about sums up your average Trump supporter here in 2019. Their tolerance for his appalling behavior is somehow even more appalling than his behavior. Oh and we can add things like "Viciously calling Democrat politicians schoolyard (or worse) names....like "Savages"". They lap that shit up and beg for more. Apparently these are the important things in their lives.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    The GOP base will not flip. And Congressional Republicans know that well. So they won't flip either lest they get booted out. This is not the America of the 70's. I guarantee you that if Watergate happened now the GOP base will cheer that unlike what they did back in Nixon's time. Poor Nixon just happened to be president at the wrong time or he would have completed 2 terms. They believe that all Democrats are crooks anyway so what's the harm in spying on them.
    As I've pointed out elsewhere in the thread, even in the 70's after his resignation, Nixon still had a 25% approval rating.
    I honestly don't believe that anybody thinks that the GOP base will flip though, for that reason and others.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Democrats' only hope is they choose the right candidate for the next election who will fire up enough of their own base like Obama once did. Clearly, HC wasn't up to the task. It is unfortunate that Pelosi herself will never get a chance to be President. I have a feeling she would have probably been better at actually governing the country than pretty much anyone in the running currently.
    I don't think they have such a candidate. They need an appealing and semi-moderate candidate to not only appeal to their base but also the independents. The closest thing they have is Biden and he's got his own wagon train of baggage. He's also showing signs of mental slippage, small wonder given his age.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

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