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Thread: Saudi oil strikes

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    Saudi oil strikes

    Iran rejects U.S. claim it was behind Saudi oil strikes, says ready for war

    DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran dismissed accusations by the United States that it was behind attacks on Saudi oil plants that risk disrupting global energy supplies and warned on Sunday that U.S. bases and aircraft carriers in the region were in range of its missiles.

    Yemen’s Houthi group claimed responsibility for Saturday’s attacks that knocked out more than half of Saudi oil output or more than 5% of global supply, but U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the assault was the work of Iran, a Houthi ally.

    The drone strikes on plants in the heartland of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, including the world’s biggest petroleum processing facility, were expected to send oil prices up $5-10 per barrel on Monday as tensions rise in the Middle East.

    Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi dismissed the U.S. allegation as “pointless”. A senior Revolutionary Guards commander warned that the Islamic Republic was ready for “full-fledged” war.

    “All American bases and their aircraft carriers in a distance of up to 2,000 kilometres around Iran are within the range of our missiles,” the semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted commander Amirali Hajizadeh as saying.

    State oil giant Saudi Aramco said the attack cut output by 5.7 million barrels per day, at a time when Aramco is trying to ready itself for what is expected to be the world’s largest share sale.

    Aramco gave no timeline for output resumption. A source close to the matter told Reuters the return to full oil capacity could take “weeks, not days”.

    Traders and analysts said crude may spike to as high as $100 if Riyadh fails to quickly bring back supply.

    The kingdom, the world’s top oil exporter, ships more than 7 million barrels of oil to global destinations every day.

    Riyadh said it would compensate for the loss by drawing on its stocks which stood at 188 million barrels in June, according to official data. The United States said it was also ready to tap emergency oil reserves if needed.

    The Saudi bourse closed down 1.1% with banking and petrochemical shares taking the biggest hit. Saudi petrochemical firms announced a significant reduction in feedstock supplies.

    “Abqaiq is the nerve centre of the Saudi energy system. Even if exports resume in the next 24-48 hours, the image of invulnerability has been altered,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Reuters.

    “UNPRECEDENTED ATTACK”

    According to U.S. government information, 15 structures at Abqaiq suffered damage on their west-northwest facing sides.

    Pompeo said there was no evidence the attack came from Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthis for over four years in a conflict widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Muslim rival Iran.

    “Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply,” he said.

    Some Iraqi media outlets said the attack came from there. Baghdad denied this on Sunday and vowed to punish anyone using Iraq, where Iran-backed paramilitary groups wield increasing power, as a launchpad for attacks.

    Kuwait, which borders Iraq, said it was investigating the sighting of a drone over its territory and coordinating with Saudi Arabia and other countries. The cabinet said the prime minister ordered tighter security at vital installations.

    Riyadh accused Iran of being behind previous attacks on oil pumping stations and the Shaybah oilfield, charges Tehran denies. It has not yet blamed any party for Saturday’s strike, but linked it to a recent series of attacks on Saudi oil assets and crude tankers in Gulf waters.

    Riyadh says Iran arms the Houthis, a charge both deny.

    Regional tensions have escalated since Washington quit an international nuclear deal and extended sanctions on Iran.

    The European Union warned that Saturday’s attack posed a real threat to regional security, Britain called it a “reckless attempt” to disrupt global oil supplies and France said such actions could only worsen “risk of conflict”. Iran’s ally Turkey called for the avoidance of “provocative steps”.

    U.S.-IRAN TALKS

    The attack comes after U.S. President Donald Trump said a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was possible at the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month. Tehran ruled out talks until sanctions are lifted.

    White House adviser Kellyanne Conway did not rule out a possible meeting between the two but told “Fox News Sunday” that the strikes “did not help” that prospect. nL2N26603O

    Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Trump that Riyadh was ready to deal with “terrorist aggression”.

    The Saudi-led coalition has responded to past Houthi attacks with air strikes on the group’s military sites in Yemen.

    The conflict has been in military stalemate for years. The alliance has air supremacy but has come under scrutiny over civilian deaths and a humanitarian crisis that has left millions facing starvation. The Houthis, more adept at guerrilla warfare, have increased attacks on Saudi cities, thwarting peace efforts.

    The United Arab Emirates, Riyadh’s main partner in the alliance, has reduced its presence in Yemen due to concern over rising Iran tensions and Western criticism of the war, leaving Riyadh to try to neutralise the Houthi threat along its border.

    Iran’s foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif said Washington and its allies were “stuck in Yemen” and that blaming Tehran “won’t end the disaster”.

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    How the hell did these drones entered Saudi airspace? These drones are restricted to line-of-sight. It's not like the Yemenis can bounce a sig off a bird.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    How the hell did these drones entered Saudi airspace? These drones are restricted to line-of-sight. It's not like the Yemenis can bounce a sig off a bird.
    What type of drone used would be a start and they seem to be saying that the missiles were fired from the direction of Iran or Iraq...Certainly cause for major concern. can't see it going unanswered if Saudi decide it was Iran also

    https://www.reuters.com/video/?videoId=OVAWRXCKF
    Last edited by Freyr; 16 Sep 19, at 10:00.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    How the hell did these drones entered Saudi airspace? These drones are restricted to line-of-sight. It's not like the Yemenis can bounce a sig off a bird.
    This was my thought as well, how it was so precise and either unchallenged or if challenged suceeded in defeating the challenge. And its not like its just over the border it has to fly a considerable distance to get to the target

    A bunch of rebels against a customer of billions of dollars worth of arms.

    Why is the word drone even here when a bunch of saboteurs could do this with well placed explosives. Nice low tech like and effective.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Sep 19, at 15:12.

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    I was misunderstanding the reports... They're saying the drones were launched from Iran or Iraq. Begs more questions..

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    I wonder how badly Donnie Dementia is going to fuck this one up. All the adults have left the "Administration", so now we'll see how a special-needs toddler handles an international crisis on his own.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freyr View Post
    I was misunderstanding the reports... They're saying the drones were launched from Iran or Iraq. Begs more questions..
    I heard ten drones did the job. Where they took off from was not mentioned.

    Took out 5.7m barrels worth hence instant price rise by $12 at open of business which has since reduced.

    This is Iran telling the world to think again

    Very IRA like isn't it. They go after infrastructure. Not people.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Sep 19, at 22:40.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    I wonder how badly Donnie Dementia is going to fuck this one up. All the adults have left the "Administration", so now we'll see how a special-needs toddler handles an international crisis on his own.
    He will handle it in the way he thinks fit. We've seen what that means in Syria with the Tomahawks slamming into that air base.. He never had a China test like the three presidents prior were subjected, instead turned the tables and gave the PRC an America test.

    It's funny when the term began he was well stocked with generals, people called them grown ups. As time wore on he became less impressed with them and let them go.

    What curious with this is the timing. Just after Bolton left the building.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Sep 19, at 22:52.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    I wonder how badly Donnie Dementia is going to fuck this one up. All the adults have left the "Administration", so now we'll see how a special-needs toddler handles an international crisis on his own.
    Hmm, squeeze something and eventually it goes pop.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I heard ten drones did the job. Where they took off from was not mentioned.

    Took out 5.7m barrels worth hence instant price rise by $12 at open of business which has since reduced.

    This is Iran telling the world to think again

    Very IRA like isn't it. They go after infrastructure. Not people.
    Its a bit garbled but those individual strikes on one of the sites look alot more than anything that Yemen could orchestrate

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    He will handle it in the way he thinks fit.
    That's exactly what I'm worried about.
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    We've seen what that means in Syria with the Tomahawks slamming into that air base.
    Yes, and Iran is no Syria. Iran is worlds away more dangerous to the rest of the world, thanks to (among other things) their geographic location.
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    He never had a China test like the three presidents prior were subjected, instead turned the tables and gave the PRC an America test.
    Oh he certainly went after China alright, like a drunken frat boy flailing around a bar...and the cost to American farmers alone is in the billions...not to mention lost markets that took decades to gain.

    Because "Trade wars are good, and easy to win"

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It's funny when the term began he was well stocked with generals, people called them grown ups. As time wore on he became less impressed with them and let them go.
    Yes, they presented him with sound advice and facts, not obsequious toadying and fawning. Trump on the other hand, brought “limited cognitive ability" to the table, according to James Mattis. No wonder they all left.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

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    Interesting delima.

    Let's face it. The Saudi armed forces are essentially mercs. Retired Pakistani soldiers manned entire regiments in Saudi Arabia and it's policy to have instructors fly patrol or be a wingman everytime a Saudi royal pilot (only royals are allowed to fly AF planes) go up.

    The Saudis have 450-600 Chinese DF-3/DF-21 missiles in the RSSMF and they're manned by ... tut-ta-tum ... Chinese "engineers". To date, no Saudi missile crew has passed qualifications to fire off these missiles. It would be extremely interesting if Beijing would allow these "engineers" to fire off Chinese rockets against Iran.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 17 Sep 19, at 01:52.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Forget Iran, why couldn't those Pak/Chinese mercs do something here ?

    And where the hell are those patriot missiles. As i recall they couldn't prevent the houthis hitting Riyadh airport some time back either.

    The Paks provide, pilots for the fighter jets, guards for royal princes (because who knows where tribal loyalties lie ie can't trust their own people) and then there is that nuclear thing.

    Houthis have been playing with drones for the last 3-4 years. That they could pull off something like this from distance is mind boggling.

    If things go south here India is getting it in the neck. We only have ten days strategic oil reserves.

    China, Japan, Korea, Singapore have close to 90 days stock.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 17 Sep 19, at 03:38.

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    PATRIOTS are the wrong system for this. AAA is much better suited for this. However, we have fallened behind on this as we limited ourselves to the CIWS wheras the Russians have the much better ZSU-23-4.

    As for the mercs, they're at the mercy of Saudi Commanders. The 2IC maybe a merc and maybe the actual CO but the Saudi Royal is the one signing the paychecques. If they don't want you out scaring the locals but doing your job, then you're not scaring the locals. The Royals do not want the locals to know that they trust foreign mercs more than their own people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    That's exactly what I'm worried about.
    Why ? he doesn't want a war with Iran and neither do the Saudis

    Yes, and Iran is no Syria. Iran is worlds away more dangerous to the rest of the world, thanks to (among other things) their geographic location.
    Think back to May when mines were found in the strait. In June Iran downed a US drone. What was his response ? call off the attack at the last minute.

    Oh he certainly went after China alright, like a drunken frat boy flailing around a bar...and the cost to American farmers alone is in the billions...not to mention lost markets that took decades to gain.

    Because "Trade wars are good, and easy to win"
    China will lose more and there won't be a trade war.

    Yes, they presented him with sound advice and facts, not obsequious toadying and fawning. Trump on the other hand, brought “limited cognitive ability" to the table, according to James Mattis. No wonder they all left.
    This is a guy who thinks other people should solve their own problems. He hasn't done anything to make me worried, at the end of his three year term.

    What would have queered things was making a deal with the Taliban and he put that worry to rest.

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