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Thread: What happens if Pakistan collapses

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    What happens if Pakistan collapses

    A lot of discussion on this topic revolves around how to break Pakistan through war with India but very little thought is spent into what comes after. Or we talk about a nuke war and get stuck there.

    So continuing on from a previous discussion into a topic in its own right. The scenario is as economic conditions deteriorate in Pakistan. social instability rises, the state cracks down and this results in break away movements. There is no nuke war in this scenario, the Pak state is up its eyeballs in trying to keep the state intact but fails.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Our intelligences agencies would be talking to potential successors in Pakistan, months in advance. These are assets that are cultivated years before any assault takes place. We use Pushtuns and Balochis to break Pakistan.

    After breaking it up into 4 countries, we get someone we like into Pak Punjab and install him. The Pakistani population will be too bothered about where their food, water and medicines come from. Civil wars doesn't take place on an empty stomach with people nursing their limbs and lives.
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    India is not afraid she cannot march to Islamabad. India is afraid she has to occupy Islamabad. Do you really want 200 million Pakistanis now with access to the Indian border to look for work? Do you really want another Bangladesh on your border?
    So here are some ideas. Think about the Yugoslav model. All independent countries. Is that the model we can use here ?

    In the Serbia autopsy thread Verses details how the erstwhile state of Yugoslavia broke up. Yugoslavia like Pakistan was an artificial entity created out of smaller countries. How did those countries pick up the pieces and move on. I don't think he has gone into that in his thread.



    What's interesting about this discussion is asking what next in the event of a total economic collapse. He wants war crimes trials for the Pak army for their atrocities in Balochistan, Sindh KP etc, we have to contain the nukes AND the radicals from interfering so as to prevent some emirate coming up.

    What next ? there have to be govts in exile able to take over. We have to have a clear idea of what the administration, diplomacy & security setups these states will have.

    What parts do we want ? Just PO J&K or more

    We need to have a Marshall plan in place to recover the local economies of the various regions. This way there will be no civil war. You don't get millions of people rushing towards our border either if there is a plan in place to deal with the aftermath which most discussion on the topic does not even bother getting into.

    The Brits after winning WW2 royally failed to prevent loss of life during partition. This cannot be allowed to happen in the event there is a collapse in Pakistan.

    Still with me, Oracle : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Sep 19, at 22:24.

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    Pakistan has no comparison to Yugoslavia. After Tito, you had a strongman, Milosevic, who wanted to break up Yugoslavia. You have no such person in Pakistan.

    Even then, they fought some bloody civil wars.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 12 Sep 19, at 20:31.

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    India has heavily fenced the border. If Pakistan disintegrates I want an RW government in India that can effectively stop refugees pouring into our borders.

    Coming back to so-called disintegration.

    1. Pakistanis are not a kind of Race that can execute a revolution. They have never done in their history.

    2. Islam is quite a strong binding force. Their experience of East Pakistan does not negate this binding force. Anyone who ignores this force because of the creation of Bangladesh is either naive or Indian Congress-I apologist.

    3. Mainly an agrarian society they can live off the land quite well.

    4. Without overt external military intervention (Deterred by Nukes), no insurgency will survive to leave alone gaining a momentum that can lead to the disintegration.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    2. Islam is quite a strong binding force. Their experience of East Pakistan does not negate this binding force. Anyone who ignores this force because of the creation of Bangladesh is either naive or Indian Congress-I apologist.
    Can you expand on this ?

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    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    1. Pakistanis are not a kind of Race that can execute a revolution. They have never done in their history.
    They're not a race. Jeez! Dudeeee...

    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    2. Islam is quite a strong binding force. Their experience of East Pakistan does not negate this binding force. Anyone who ignores this force because of the creation of Bangladesh is either naive or Indian Congress-I apologist.
    No religion can stand in front of cruise missiles going off on their asses. When bombs fall, all those islamic jihadi pigs in Pakistan would run to find a rat-hole and that includes the rank and file of the salwar kameez army.

    Dead jihadis don't care. Injured jihadis would want morphines to relieve them of the pain. Hungry jihadis would need food. Jihadis have families too, fit ones would scramble to find out if any of their kith and kin has survived.

    The thing is, islamic jihadism - pretentious scholars, mainly American and western, have written such terrible thoughts on them, as if attacking Pakistan would cause the world to burn for 100 years. It's not like that, and if thought out, it's much simple.

    3. Mainly an agrarian society they can live off the land quite well.
    Things need to be thought through. Rice grow in fields, they have to be transported to the nearby market to be sold, for people to buy and eat. Else, only the farmers will be well fed, that too just rice porridge. Soldiers on empty stomach, well.....Kargil rings any bell?

    Logistics dude. Also, this scenario is in times of crisis within Pakistan.

    4. Without overt external military intervention (Deterred by Nukes), no insurgency will survive to leave alone gaining a momentum that can lead to the disintegration.
    I have spoken how the Balochis and the Pushtuns can be used. Let the PA commit genocide on a mass scale (which they're doing, but not in the scale so as the world would take notice). This needs a spark. I am pissed off due to our non-interference policy inside Pakistan, even though terroristan continues its unabated state policy of terrorism against India.

    Some country would intervene. That country could be USA. We never know. It could be us, and we'd have support from almost all corners. As about nukes, would Pak Generals think it's better to burn, or would they think let's live this time to fight another war.
    Last edited by Oracle; 04 Jan 20, at 04:56.
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    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Still with me, Oracle : )
    I have commented earlier on this topic per se, but this needs thinking on a different level.
    Last edited by Oracle; 04 Jan 20, at 04:56.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Can you expand on this ?
    Any analyst worth his salt will never explain a problem or a phenomenon or a conclusion based on univariate cause or data.

    Two Nation theory was negated or defeated with the creation of Bangladesh is a Congress-I's hogwash to sell its brand and subdue Hindu nationalism. The phrase 'Hindu Pakistan' is an articulation out of this bigger bluff.
    Last edited by ambidex; 04 Jan 20, at 09:36.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    They're not a race. Jeez! Dudeeee...
    Please cut personal intonations if you want any discussion to go further. Pakistan as geography contains a sizeable population that belongs to a certain race or races. You want to deny them the race tag then go ahead a derail the discussion like you always do with your juvenile nitpicks.

    No religion can stand in front of cruise missiles going off on their asses. When bombs fall, all those islamic jihadi pigs in Pakistan would run to find a rat-hole and that includes the rank and file of the salwar kameez army.
    Dead jihadis don't care. Injured jihadis would want morphines to relieve them of the pain. Hungry jihadis would need food. Jihadis have families too, fit ones would scramble to find out if any of their kith and kin has survived. The thing is, islamic jihadism - pretentious scholars, mainly American and western, have written such terrible thoughts on them, as if attacking Pakistan would cause the world to burn for 100 years. It's not like that, and if thought out, it's much simple.
    Things need to be thought through. Rice grow in fields, they have to be transported to the nearby market to be sold, for people to buy and eat. Else, only the farmers will be well fed, that too just rice porridge. Soldiers on empty stomach, well.....Kargil rings any bell?
    Your first part is too cynical to reason with. The second part is too nuanced to help any strategic level discourse.

    Freaing more nitpicks I will add that agrarian societies can live off just with the land without connectivity. With initial civil strive, the land will be redistributed and communities can settle down for good for a long time. Same will be with population numbers with initial squandering it will readjust itself.

    Logistics dude. Also, this scenario is in times of crisis within Pakistan.
    Addressing me personally will not make anything better for you. Logistics are not required to grow grains or catch a fish.

    I have spoken how the Balochis and the Pushtuns can be used. Let the PA commit genocide on a mass scale (which they're doing, but not in the scale so as the world would take notice). This needs a spark. I am pissed off due to our non-interference policy inside Pakistan, even though terroristan continues its unabated state policy of terrorism against India.

    Some country would intervene. That country could be USA. We never know. It could be us, and we'd have support from almost all corners. As about nukes, would Pak Generals think it's better to burn, or would they think let's live this time to fight another war.
    Can we please focus on the possibility of the disintegration of Pakistan and any credible mechanism if there is any?

    I have reduced it to overt military intervention secondary to a regional upsurge which is deterred by Pakistani nukes. In a nutshell no such possibility.

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    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    Please cut personal intonations if you want any discussion to go further. Pakistan as geography contains a sizeable population that belongs to a certain race or races. You want to deny them the race tag then go ahead a derail the discussion like you always do with your juvenile nitpicks.

    Your first part is too cynical to reason with. The second part is too nuanced to help any strategic level discourse.

    Freaing more nitpicks I will add that agrarian societies can live off just with the land without connectivity. With initial civil strive, the land will be redistributed and communities can settle down for good for a long time. Same will be with population numbers with initial squandering it will readjust itself.

    Addressing me personally will not make anything better for you. Logistics are not required to grow grains or catch a fish.

    Can we please focus on the possibility of the disintegration of Pakistan and any credible mechanism if there is any?

    I have reduced it to overt military intervention secondary to a regional upsurge which is deterred by Pakistani nukes. In a nutshell no such possibility.
    Hahahahahaha! Had a good laugh. Thanks. Please continue.
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    Moving on ignoring obnoxious troll.
    .................................................. ................

    Rather deliberating on disintegration more plausible discussion can be on destabilization. Since the thread is mentored by 'what if' scenarios the Disintegration to me seems very difficult and no recent examples are available where a nation that is the size and shape of Pakistan has disintegrated.

    Therefore after adding two prime factors of Islam and Nuclear deterrence, I am inclined to add manageable landmass, geographic (strategic) location and China factors to oppose this motion.

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    Moving on Ignoring Obnoxious troll.

    Reupping my points:

    1. Islam
    2. Nukes
    3. Geography and strategic location
    4. Alliance with China
    5. Agri land, abundant water resources and consistent good rainy season.
    6. Good established political, executive, judicial institutes backed by Constitution and democracy.
    7. Proactive diplomacy, OIC, SCO and many more memberships and participant in UN peacekeeping etc.

    Any serious poster who is interested in this debate please add your points against or for this scenario so that more defined debate can be done.

    I am not sure what is the forum policy on discussing disintegration of a nation but I can add some thoughts on how all these strong points can be weakened and how Pakistan will react especially to the interventions made by India.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    Any analyst worth his salt will never explain a problem or a phenomenon or a conclusion based on univariate cause or data.
    Then what is your basis for this statement that islam is a binding force that must not be ignored ?

    i asked you to clarify before responding because i was not sure where you were going.

    When partition was about to happen guess which group opposed it ? the Mullahs because their flock would be divided.

    Same thing happened in '71

    Were they able to stop it ? no hence politics overriding religion

    Two Nation theory was negated or defeated with the creation of Bangladesh is a Congress-I's hogwash to sell its brand and subdue Hindu nationalism. The phrase 'Hindu Pakistan' is an articulation out of this bigger bluff.
    In '69 Congress was split into Congress(O)rganisation & Congress(R)equisition.

    Indira contested under Congress(R) and won by a landslide in '71. 352 seats won by Congress(R)

    In '77 Indira ran under Congress(I) and lost. Morarji won 298 seats. That record fell last year.

    I don't believe in two nation theory but have to live with its consequences.

    I'm curious why you construe that position as subduing Hindu nationalism because i don't see any connection with it whatsoever.

    This is about being secular. Simple as...

    I don't know what 'Hindu Pakistan' means either ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 05 Jan 20, at 15:18.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Then what is your basis for this statement that islam is a binding force that must not be ignored?
    I do not understand your question? When I gave univariate reason for the creation of Bangladesh? If you are talking about the disintegration of Pakistan then I gave multiple reasons against the motion, not just one.

    I asked you to clarify before responding because i was not sure where you were going.
    My limited point was that Two nation Theory is still alive and kicking even after the creation of Bangladesh oppose to the popular conclusion among Indian left and Congress-I apologists that it got negated after when East Pakistanis parted their ways from the West Pakistanis.

    When partition was about to happen guess which group opposed it? the Mullahs because their flock would be divided.
    Though it is factually incorrect I will answer it on its face value. The fact was 'All India Muslim league' won all Muslim constituencies in the central assembly as well as most of the Muslim constituencies in the provincial legislatures. The vote opened the path to Pakistan.

    So coming back to your anecdotal statement. I do not need to guess some ragtag romantic notion that they opposed it. The only reality is the outcome that Pakistan got created. It is the same moronic (Leftist) slogan we see these days at CAA protests that we opposed the Islamic state in 1947 and will oppose Hindu state now. If you opposed it then how come you voted for it and how come the Islamic state got created? Another romantic propaganda which is quite prevalent that Muslim stayed back or left Pakistan for their love for the secularism and India.

    In '69 Congress was split into Congress(O)rganisation & Congress(R)equisition.

    Indira contested under Congress(R) and won by a landslide in '71.

    In '77 Indira ran under Congress(I) and lost.

    I don't believe in two nation theory but have to live with its consequences.

    I'm curious why you construe that position as subduing Hindu nationalism because i don't see any connection with it whatsoever.

    This is about being secular. Simple as...

    I don't know what 'Hindu Pakistan' means either?
    If you do not believe in something how can you suffer its consequences? Nitpicking apart quoting each of your disjointed assertions will make it more confusing and I am already blaming myself for not being clearer with my opening post here.

    I will reassert my point again.

    Two Nation Theory = Islam

    This theory was first given by Savarkar or Jinnah? No by Karl Marx.

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    Creation of Bangladesh does not kill or make Two Nation Theory defunct not even the so-called disintegration of Pakistan will. Islam is a dynamic political phenomenon, therefore, it does not override politics when it itself is a political tool. Any Indian who is contemplating to disintegrate Pakistan has to find a way to tackle this political ideology (One factor out of many others).

    I hope I am clearer this time.
    Last edited by ambidex; 05 Jan 20, at 15:11.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ambidex View Post
    Islam is a dynamic political phenomenon, therefore, it does not override politics when it itself is a political tool. Any Indian who is contemplating to disintegrate Pakistan has to find a way to tackle this political ideology (One factor out of many others).

    I hope I am clearer this time.
    ok, so what i understood is islam is the binding force that will keep Pakistan together ?

    How can Islam be used to override power politics here. How will it be used as a political tool.

    Keep in mind we're not talking about re-integration of Pakistan with India.

    Just a bunch of smaller entities with a degree of autonomy in most matters other than defense, communications & foreign policy.

    How do we keep the peace ? we need a Marshall plan of sorts.

    Something that becomes imaginable if we are much larger an economy than today.

    Failing that another Bangladesh like country without a military that considers us a primary threat.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 05 Jan 20, at 16:46.

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    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    ambidex, aka Hit n Run, is there a source for your signature? The one below:

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    Thanks. I'm curious.
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