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What's wrong with Hong Kong (and how to fix it)

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  • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
    What is curious to me is that China considers Taiwan part of China. Usually their MO was that the land was once somehow connected to China because Chinese were there, or settled there, or had a footprint there in history long ago. Yet history shows the indigenous Taiwanese were there 5500 years ago before any Han Chinese. These people are Austronesian with ties to other Austronesian peoples and none to the Han Chinese. I see that headhunting was practiced by some of the indigenous. Sounds very New Guinea. I would assume China believes it belongs to her because the Han started to migrate there in the 17th Century. For that matter Chinese were in the Philippines around the 9th century interacting with those Austronesian people who are now called Piliinong Tsino and are one of the largest overseas Chinese communities.

    I assume bringing Taiwan back into his fold, to save face (how so ?), is worth it even if he has to kill military and civilians (Han) on the island to do so. Of course I am being logical and about what is right which Xi cares not one bit about. Question is would he go that far as I don't believe Taiwan would go quietly at all. He is building warships but what about transports for amphibious landings?
    Their MO is that all under Qing became ROC and all under ROC became PRC.

    Edit: minus Mongolia.

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    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
      one country, two systems is dead.

      that Xi is not even willing to put a fig leaf on it means he's also slamming the door on using that formula with Taiwan.
      You could be the guy giving this interview : D

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      • nah, Dean Cheng is much smarter than me. I've had the pleasure of working with him in the past. he's one of the few Heritage Foundation guys who aren't total pukes.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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        • You've called it quicker than he has though.

          You say one country, two system IS dead

          He says about to obliterate..

          Why the gap ?

          His vid showed up in my feed and i remembered your line : )

          Not too familiar with Dean but his answers are very clear.

          The one person i do follow from heritage is Jeff Smith who is amazing. Some times he can give me a better idea about Indian policy than local guys.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 24 May 20,, 21:22.

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          • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
            HongKong's financial ruin will start the decay of the communist regime's hefty economy. I'm glad Emperor Xi did this.
            Now wasn't that THE reason for XJP NOT to do this in the first place ?!?

            The guy is a disaster, he is worse than Carter : D

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            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Now wasn't that THE reason for XJP NOT to do this in the first place ?!?

              The guy is a disaster, he is worse than Carter : D
              Particularly when PRC has an ongoing fight with the US. I am happy to see emperor Xi being myopic. We're not paying by our blood & sweat to save whatever is left of so called HK's autonomy. But I do feel for those people who were born into freedom, and now will be enslaved into a life of slavery.

              China can't win a war with India, we'll throw at them everything we've got and we've got some pretty good Russian/American/French/Israeli toys. They can try and get back Taiwan, and that will ruin their economy. They can very well hope those islands they made will not disappear if they try to enforce blockade of SLOC. They have got billions stuck in infrastructure projects that's making losses. Tell me, any leader who is so short-sighted that he thinks he can take on everything, all at once. Xi is a F fool. More power to enemies of communist China.
              Last edited by Oracle; 25 May 20,, 02:48.
              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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              • Taiwan promises 'necessary assistance' to Hong Kong's people

                I know someone who will not be happy, and it ain't Xi. Hi! Hi! Hi!
                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                Comment


                • Here is the reason for that gap I asked about in #169

                  This week, China intervened even more dramatically. President Xi Jinping’s government announced Thursday that the National People’s Congress would write sweeping legislation into Hong Kong law to criminalize the harshest criticism of China and the ruling party.

                  Although details remain secret, a similar security bill withdrawn in 2003 carried life sentences and drew massive street protests. All could potentially become law without a local vote.
                  So they are thretening to do it and have not done it yet. For now it is ONLY a draft decision

                  They tried the same stunt back in 2003 and had to back off. Funny how it was under the cover of SARS back then and they attempt the same again with C19.

                  The action raises the stakes for another round of violent and destructive street protests ahead of legislative elections in which “pan-democrats” like Kwok were hoping to gain their first majority.
                  These elections are in September

                  “Beijing has clearly run out of patience with the Hong Kong government’s unsuccessful attempts to end the protest movement by enacting its own draconian security legislation,” said Hugo Brennan, principal Asia analyst for Verisk Maplecroft in London. “The proposed national security law is likely to prove a death knell for the ‘one country, two systems’ model and the facade of Hong Kong autonomy.”
                  So its a threat to behave or else without enacting it. That is the picture for now.



                  Later, as Hong Kong and the rest of the world were focused on a deadly new pneumonia in central China just named Covid-19, Xi put someone in charge with a record of executing controversial policies. On Feb. 13, China named Xia Baolong to head the Hong Kong & Macau Affairs Office atop a newly revamped reporting structure that created a clear chain of command from Hong Kong to Beijing.

                  The choice of Xia, a former close aide to Xi, set off alarm bells. In 2014 and 2015, he had overseen a crackdown on Christian churches in eastern Zhejiang province, in which crosses were cut from the roofs of houses of worship. Meanwhile, Luo Huining, a cadre known for executing Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, was appointed to head China’s top agency in Hong Kong, the Liaison Office.

                  It was Xia who briefed Hong Kong representatives Thursday night in Beijing on the plan to pass the new security law before the end of next week.

                  They’ve got two guys who are totally not familiar with Hong Kong issues, and who have governed provinces in China in a heavy-handed way and think they can do the same in Hong Kong,” said Kwok, who has a law degree from King’s College, University of London. “They want to use a new strategy of terror, fear, attacks, criticism, direct intervention.”
                  heh, this is not going to go down as easy as they think : )

                  End of next week means this decision gets made or should get made into law by month's end.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 26 May 20,, 09:05.

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                  • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                    Particularly when PRC has an ongoing fight with the US. I am happy to see emperor Xi being myopic. We're not paying by our blood & sweat to save whatever is left of so called HK's autonomy. But I do feel for those people who were born into freedom, and now will be enslaved into a life of slavery.
                    A million people showed up on the streets over an extradition law. They got what they wanted a few months later. XJP caved in.

                    To me this looks like XJP trying to mount a come back, show the state is in charge.

                    People of HK are not going to take this lying down and Beijing can't do another Tianamen.

                    Something will have to give

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      A million people showed up on the streets over an extradition law. They got what they wanted a few months later. XJP caved in.

                      To me this looks like XJP trying to mount a come back, show the state is in charge.

                      People of HK are not going to take this lying down and Beijing can't do another Tianamen.

                      Something will have to give
                      What’s the reason “Beijing can’t do another Tiananmen”?
                      Trust me?
                      I'm an economist!

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                      • DE,

                        A million people showed up on the streets over an extradition law. They got what they wanted a few months later. XJP caved in.
                        no, they didn't.

                        they got precisely -nothing-, past a temporary truce. how much of the "Five Demands and Not One Less" were fulfilled?

                        People of HK are not going to take this lying down and Beijing can't do another Tianamen.
                        see what DOR says.

                        although I suspect the CCP will be a bit more clever this time around; lots of pressure for people to emigrate, etc.

                        at the end of the day, the CCP and Xi have made a choice: they'd rather have HK as another Chinese city, even if it means they take the economic hit from the inevitable business flight.
                        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                          What’s the reason “Beijing can’t do another Tiananmen”?
                          Something something PLA vs PAP said OOE.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            What’s the reason “Beijing can’t do another Tiananmen”?
                            The last time they did the door to the western arms market got slammed shut and remains so to this day.

                            Very consequential decision for China's neighbours.

                            The short answer is there will be consequences.

                            Course with XJP, digging further is always possible so shooting oneself in the foot remains : )

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              no, they didn't.

                              they got precisely -nothing-, past a temporary truce.
                              The extradition bill was withdrawn. How is that nothing.

                              You can call it a reprieve but the CCP had to back off. Four months on the streets amounted to something.

                              I posted a link about it here.

                              Important milestone which for some reason nobody thought mattered.

                              Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              how much of the "Five Demands and Not One Less" were fulfilled?
                              I am referring just to the extradition law which kicked off the protests.

                              Extra demands is up to the people of HK, how badly they want it and what they willing to do to get it.


                              Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              see what DOR says.

                              although I suspect the CCP will be a bit more clever this time around; lots of pressure for people to emigrate, etc.

                              at the end of the day, the CCP and Xi have made a choice: they'd rather have HK as another Chinese city, even if it means they take the economic hit from the inevitable business flight.
                              This remains to be seen.

                              In the 90s HK made up 30% of China's economy today its around 4%, economy might not be to big a hit but there is more to HK isn't there. It's more than just another successful Chinese metro. That is how the world looks at HK, might not be the same way the CCP does but they will be losing more if they continue along this path.

                              I had a friend from there who jumped ship in the 90s. When i told her at the time there was this standstill agreement for 50 years, she just scoffed and said nobody believes it. Meaning if people wanted to emigrate there was a lot of time to do it, if they haven't as yet they intend to stay put, at least the majority.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 27 May 20,, 19:38.

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                              • They're calling this one a "recommendation on US policy for HK" to the recent CCP "proposal on HK National Security Legislation"

                                Last edited by Double Edge; 28 May 20,, 12:03.

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