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Thread: Trump loses his re-election bid and America takes a left turn

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Trump loses his re-election bid and America takes a left turn

    It is said to be assured of getting one terms work done as US President that at least two terms are required. Otherwise whatever was done in just one term will be reversed by the next administration.

    So the topic here is Trump loses his election bid and given the competition so far has a left of centre complexion then what will it mean for America's relations with the world ?

    I'm assuming but don't know.

    Relations with Russia & China will improve. What the implication there will be needs to to understood by other countries that either have a good or bad relation with Russia or China.

    Anything else ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It is said to be assured of getting one terms work done as US President that at least two terms are required. Otherwise whatever was done in just one term will be reversed by the next administration.

    So the topic here is Trump loses his election bid and given the competition so far has a left of centre complexion then what will it mean for America's relations with the world ?

    I'm assuming but don't know.

    Relations with Russia & China will improve. What the implication there will be needs to to understood by other countries that either have a good or bad relation with Russia or China.

    Anything else ?
    First off, the US has already moved left, and the Democratic party is trying to catch up. The Dem establishment doesn't want to move left though because that's threatening a break away from the American way. So the Dems' final candidate for pres is going to have to lie like hell and pretend to support social change a la Bernie.

    that which used to be the tradional left is no longer. Hillary would have had to be considered the 'left', as opposed to the Repubs but Hillary would have been totally in sync with the US agenda of the past.

    To begin to answer your question: A US move to the left in their domestic politics doesn't say anything about the US relations with Russia and China. Or, if you don't agree then make a suggestion on how it could?

    You have to be thinking in terms of the traditional politics of the two parties, but that's no longer applicable. The Repubs were always considered the war party and the Dems were considered the antiwar party. Now there can be a good case made to say that the Dems are the war party.

    In my opinion the US is rapidly moving toward that which Bernie Sanders represents. So the question is, if Bernie or a Bernie copycat Dem gets the job, is that saying that the US will continue it's policy of aggression and expansion of US influence?

    Fwiw, the US doesn't have a choice now with China poised to overtake the US in world influence. Not military power of course but that's not the biggest issue. You already know my feelings on MAD as the great equalizer.

    There's a lot more to say on your question but I need to know that you have an interest in hearing it. Otherwise I'm blowing smoke for nothing.

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    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post

    Anything else ?
    Augusto Pinochet comes to power in 2030.

    The Republican Party no longer is seen as representing true values of freedom by a growing part of the fly-over states.
    And let's remember that Trump got elected for what was seen as a radical agenda,though in many ways it was just common sense.Of that agenda,Trump implemented next to nothing.Main issues were :
    -building the wall and next to zero illegal migration-FAIL.
    -support for 2nd Amendment-FAIL on his part.
    -''draining the Swamp''-Mega FAIL.

    Trump is in a poor position to be re-elected,because his base will be affected by disgust,while the opposition will be galvanised.

    The US is getting dis-United by the day.When you're busy with internal issues,it will be difficult to remain hardcore on a global stage.

    So the issue here is not how the US will do relative to China and Russia,but how local powers will deal with a not so commited US in the PAcific or EE.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post

    Anything else ?
    Augusto Pinochet comes to power in 2030.

    The Republican Party no longer is seen as representing true values of freedom by a growing part of the fly-over states.
    And let's remember that Trump got elected for what was seen as a radical agenda,though in many ways it was just common sense.Of that agenda,Trump implemented next to nothing.Main issues were :
    -building the wall and next to zero illegal migration-FAIL.
    -support for 2nd Amendment-FAIL on his part.
    -''draining the Swamp''-Mega FAIL.

    Trump is in a poor position to be re-elected,because his base will be affected by disgust,while the opposition will be galvanised.

    The US is getting dis-United by the day.When you're busy with internal issues,it will be difficult to remain hardcore on a global stage.

    So the issue here is not how the US will do relative to China and Russia,but how local powers will deal with a not so commited US in the PAcific or EE.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    To begin to answer your question: A US move to the left in their domestic politics doesn't say anything about the US relations with Russia and China. Or, if you don't agree then make a suggestion on how it could?
    I don't have a position to argue on that. I just figured there might be a meeting of minds. It could well be wishful thinking too.

    With Russia i might even be contradicting myself. Before the cold war ended the Repubs were anti-Russia and Dems less anti-Russia.

    These days that balance has flipped. Whether its solely due to election meddling & collusion etc and therefore only temporary remains to be seen as opposed to ideological which means more enduring differences.

    So going by present behaviour, Trump means a less anti-Russia position. Anything else is more anti-Russia ? i don't know.

    What would Putin want ? Trump again or something else, that changes the equation from the other end now.

    I would love to see some rapprochement between the US & Russia as that simplifies things for others globally. A deeper cleavage however complicates things significantly.

    What troubles me is Russia looks at the US with hostile intent. For Russia to become great again is by pushing back at the US just for the sake of it and for no good reason. To do otherwise is to acquiesce to US dominance. If that is the case then reagardless of who is running the US, relations with Russia are going to be a pain.

    There's a lot more to say on your question but I need to know that you have an interest in hearing it. Otherwise I'm blowing smoke for nothing.
    Go ahead, this is one big hypothetical and will serve to understand the opposition's position. Should they take over. I'm hoping your positions will not be so far off the radical end that i could at least relate to them

    First off, the US has already moved left, and the Democratic party is trying to catch up.
    I'm thinking the people that remained stagnant without any meaningful wage increases gives more weight to this.

    Victimsed by globalisation & threatened by immigration. They will be a clamour for more state spending over military. I can't say whether this has happened under Trump.

    As for US being more aggressive i think the appetite for that ended ten years ago. The only place i see Trump sending troops is home and letting other powers fill their shoes or pull more of their weight. US will honour existing commitments but insist on more burden sharing. I don't think this is just Trump. There is a fatigue setting in and i can sense it even with members here so i use that to generalise for the rest of the US.

    In my opinion the US is rapidly moving toward that which Bernie Sanders represents.
    This is the thing. A shift towards what Bernie represents isn't a return to the days before Trump. Imagine a pendulum at center, Trump comes in and it swings to one end. Now if Bernie comes in, the pendulum does not drop back to centre, instead, now it swings to the opposite end with attendant consequences for one and all.

    Trump was tricky to figure out for the rest of the world. Bernie will be no less hard.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Apr 19, at 20:56.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Augusto Pinochet comes to power in 2030.

    The Republican Party no longer is seen as representing true values of freedom by a growing part of the fly-over states.
    And let's remember that Trump got elected for what was seen as a radical agenda,though in many ways it was just common sense.Of that agenda,Trump implemented next to nothing.Main issues were :
    -building the wall and next to zero illegal migration-FAIL.
    -support for 2nd Amendment-FAIL on his part.
    -''draining the Swamp''-Mega FAIL.
    Because he's not the supreme dictator the opposition paints him our to be. You kinda knew these radical positions were going to face significant push back from the start yet the media coverage throughout was always look at what he wants to do or what he said as if it was some fair accompli just because he uttered or tweeted something.

    Trump is in a poor position to be re-elected,because his base will be affected by disgust,while the opposition will be galvanised.

    The US is getting dis-United by the day.When you're busy with internal issues,it will be difficult to remain hardcore on a global stage.

    So the issue here is not how the US will do relative to China and Russia,but how local powers will deal with a not so commited US in the PAcific or EE.
    True but you could say the same applied in Trump's case as well.

    US has global commitments. Does anyone want to dare US to renege on them ? not seen it yet.

    Russia's move into Ukraine happened during Obama's watch. Or when adults were in charge as some would say : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Apr 19, at 20:42.

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    [QUOTE=Double Edge;1050007]I don't have a position to argue on that. I just figured there might be a meeting of minds. It could well be wishful thinking too.

    A meeting of minds between China/Russia/the US? I think it's possible after Trump.

    With Russia i might even be contradicting myself. Before the cold war ended the Repubs were anti-Russia and Dems less anti-Russia.
    I assume you're suggesting that the cold war ended with the fall of the S.U., but I agree that your suggestion on which party was pro/con on Russia is correct.

    These days that balance has flipped. Whether its solely due to election meddling & collusion etc and therefore only temporary remains to be seen as opposed to ideological which means more enduring differences.
    I would suggest that it's temporary.

    So going by present behaviour, Trump means a less anti-Russia position. Anything else is more anti-Russia ? i don't know.
    Whatever the reasons for that, I'm of the opinion that it's true.

    What would Putin want ? Trump again or something else, that changes the equation from the other end now.
    Putin likes Trump but Trump is a wild card that can't be replaced. But Putin would obviously want a Bernie or Bernie like president as opposed to a Biden, I would suggest.

    I would love to see some rapprochement between the US & Russia as that simplifies things for others globally. A deeper cleavage however complicates things significantly.
    No doubt! But I wonder if the US is prepared to peacefully coexist alongside a very powerful China, or a powerful BRICS?

    What troubles me is Russia looks at the US with hostile intent. For Russia to become great again is by pushing back at the US just for the sake of it and for no good reason.
    And I would say that Russia knows the US is boss dog and would likely want to keep the peace. That is, within reason and on the condition that Russia can defend it's interests. I don't think that Russia wants the Ukraine, Georgia, or the Crimea, it just can't accept the US/Nato having them. And on Venezuela, Russia's interests and China's interests are oil, and that explains all.

    To do otherwise is to acquiesce to US dominance. If that is the case then reagardless of who is running the US, relations with Russia are going to be a pain.
    Yes. The US doesn't see Russia, it sees the S.U.



    Go ahead, this is one big hypothetical and will serve to understand the opposition's position. Should they take over. I'm hoping your positions will not be so far off the radical end that i could at least relate to them
    I've forgotten the context and will have to refer back. So later.


    I'm thinking the people that remained stagnant without any meaningful wage increases gives more weight to this.
    Suffice to say, my opinion is that ordinary Americans are being left behind. Trump promised to change that but Trump lied.

    Victimsed by globalisation & threatened by immigration. They will be a clamour for more state spending over military. I can't say whether this has happened under Trump.
    I would say you're right. But that really puts the lie to Trump's latest suggestion of less spending on the military. However, what Trump says is often the opposite of what he says the next day or next week.

    As for US being more aggressive i think the appetite for that ended ten years ago. The only place i see Trump sending troops is home and letting other powers fill their shoes or pull more of their weight. US will honour existing commitments but insist on more burden sharing. I don't think this is just Trump. There is a fatigue setting in and i can sense it even with members here so i use that to generalise for the rest of the US.
    I hear you. I've yet to be able to sense anything from the people on this forum. That is probably because I don't have the luxury of having something different to compare it with.


    This is the thing. A shift towards what Bernie represents isn't a return to the days before Trump. Imagine a pendulum at center, Trump comes in and it swings to one end. Now if Bernie comes in, the pendulum does not drop back to centre, instead, now it swings to the opposite end with attendant consequences for one and all.
    Yes! Bernie represents something completely foreign to US past political practice. And I think the American people are making the move and Bernie is just filling the need for leadership. But I suspect that some of the others are going to ride on his coattails very soon.

    Trump was tricky to figure out for the rest of the world. Bernie will be no less hard.
    I don't feel at any loss on figuring Trump out. And my opinion on Bernie or the copycats that rise up to steal his fire, will not be hard to figure. The American people are severely pissed off in my opinion.

    Thanks for your very reasoned and intelligent post! If I've left anything unanswered then please do pursue it further.

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    In reference to the hypothetical that I left unanswered: You said:

    What troubles me is Russia looks at the US with hostile intent. For Russia to become great again is by pushing back at the US just for the sake of it and for no good reason. To do otherwise is to acquiesce to US dominance. If that is the case then reagardless of who is running the US, relations with Russia are going to be a pain.
    I'm of the opinion that Russia is doing nothing much more than standing it's ground. That on the Ukrkraine, Crimea, and Georgia.

    Venezuela asks for a more nuanced response from me. It can't be claimed that Russia is standing it's ground in S.America or C. America. I'm suggesting that Russia is standing it's alliance's ground as regards Venezuela's huge oil wealth.
    Last edited by montgomery; 07 Apr 19, at 02:29.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    In reference to the hypothetical that I left unanswered
    Hypothetical is the thread title.Everything that leads on from there is too

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Hypothetical is the thread title.Everything that leads on from there is too
    This link applies to the Mueller investigation and consequently Trump's future.
    https://original.antiwar.com/danny_s...e-of-the-tape/

    But it leads to another half dozen questions and so I just thought you would be interested. No doubt that Major Danny is a loose cannon.

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    Any outcome that will result to increased immigration, as well as relaxation of immigration rules into the US is most welcome.

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    Opinion: Five reasons Trump won’t win in 2020

    Say one thing for senior citizenhood, as my own approacheth: You have time on your hands. Witness the crowd waiting for hours Tuesday outside Orlando’s Amway Center in the rain to hear a 76-minute speech containing nary a coherent thought. By a president who will lose the re-election campaign he kicked off last night.

    There. I said it. And, yes, I did refer to “President Hillary Clinton” in 2016, when I was ready to call that race.

    But I’ve got five reasons why Donald Trump is going to Florida for good in 2021. If you think they’re wrong, tell me why at @timmullaney on Twitter, or in the comments. If you cite 2016, remember Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million — and see the second reason, below.

    1. Everybody has already made up their mind about Trump — and his numbers stink
    Right now, Trump’s net approval rating is minus 8.5 percentage points in the RealClear Politics polling average. Fivethirtyeight.com says it’s minus 10, as 53% disapprove, 43% approve and 4% won’t say. That spread was first “achieved” in March 2017. Trump hasn’t narrowed it below nine since, Fivethirtyeight says.

    In other words, no one’s changing their minds about Trump. About 40% of us like his act, if only to “own the libs.” Everyone else? Nope.

    2. His state numbers are just as bad
    Oh, but the Electoral College! says Twitter, where confident young people educate me about their hero’s resilience in Midwestern battlegrounds where he snatched victory from popular-vote defeat in 2016. Thanks for that. Really.

    Like, in Michigan, where Morning Consult puts Trump’s net approval at minus 12? Trump’s Michigan numbers haven’t been green in 26 months. Morning Consult says he’s doing two points worse than in October, before Republicans lost two House seats there and the governorship.

    Trump’s polling in Wisconsin? He’s minus 13. In Iowa, minus 12, and his party lost two of its three House seats.

    In Pennsylvania, birthplace of former Vice President and possible 2020 rival Joe Biden, Trump is minus 7, a point worse than last fall. Democrats won the generic House vote in Pennsylvania by 10 points.

    Just on those four, Trump’s 306 2016 electoral votes fall to 254 (270 needed to win) and it’s over. But as many as 215 Trump electoral votes could be in play, based on state-by-state polls.

    Yes, early polling isn’t great on head-to-head matchups. But the relationship between late-first-term presidential approval and re-election prospects is pretty close — if it changes, an intervening recession, war or economic boom explains why. This brings us to….

    3. Trump isn’t getting credit for the economy — and he won’t, either [This is for all of you "I don't like Trump but I love what's he's done with economy" dreamers - TH]
    When the unemployment rate goes to 3.6% from 10%, the guy who came along at 4.7% doesn’t get the credit.

    Trump’s whole case on the economy is that he should.

    But wage growth — already unexceptional — is slowing. So is job growth, at a year-to-date monthly average 26% below 2015, the third year of the last presidential term. Manufacturing job growth has slowed too.

    The stock market (Trump’s favorite indicator) has stalled — the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SPX, +0.58% and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.28% have bounced around, driven by Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff wars. The Dow peaked in January 2018, the S&P last September.

    That we are back near the peaks shows only that the Federal Reserve has taken the wheel, moving toward more interest-rate cuts. It’s not confidence in Trump. Twitter’s ranter-in- chief turns it off to coolly assess economics, and economics alone? Sure.

    4. He’ll keep screwing up
    Right now, Trump’s meandering toward armed conflict with Iran. But wartime leadership requires trust, not telling 10,796 lies in office, Trump’s count according to The Washington Post last week.

    That means Trump either climbs down (again) from his latest pseudo-crusade, or tries war without public support. Neither makes him more popular.

    Next, he’s throwing himself a July 4 rally at the Lincoln Memorial — nothing tacky there. Trump will salute Abraham Lincoln’s second inaugural, and the anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg, offering charity toward none and malice for nearly all. Stories about his lack of respect will follow as night follows day.

    Then he’ll mess with trade again, making your portfolio more volatile. Open more barbed-wire refugee camps. Lose some of their kids. Blow off subpoenas, keeping investigations of his inauguration, foundation, taxes and Russian influence alive. He even says he’ll try another Obamacare repeal bill, after 2017’s failures handed Democrats the House.

    All winners.

    5. Hillary’s not running — neither is Hunter Biden
    The reason Trump is president is Clinton’s e-mail scandalette. That and her family’s history of diving for dollars, even taking $675,000 for Hillary’s speeches at Goldman Sachs.

    But who’s he gonna chant lock ‘em up about this time?

    Of the Democratic candidates, Elizabeth Warren’s well off — she wrote books, her husband has a good job, and their house is worth five times its 1995 purchase price. All legit. Bernie Sanders became a millionaire through book sales, begrudgingly. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper ran brew pubs. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has simple finances; he works, and his husband teaches at a Montessori Academy. Biden, who has unfortunately been cashing in on speeches too, made his tax returns public during his vice presidency and surely will publish his 2016-2019 returns.

    Not a lobbyist with his hand out, or foreign potentates staying in their hotels, to be found. Let alone a multi-year tax fraud, as asserted in Trump’s case.Trump wants to make hay about Biden’s son’s businesses, but his own son-in-law met with potential lenders to his real estate business — in the White House. That dog won’t, ahem, Hunter.

    Enjoy Mar-a-Lago, Mr. President. Wait! You don’t want Florida? Here’s a sixth reason you’re going south.

    In this life, not the next. That’s another column.

    New Yorkers like you even less than Washington, so a cloister far from madding crowds is in order. You know the folks who would love you if you shot someone outside Trump Tower? They don’t live here.
    Link
    _______________

    While I agree with all of the points made, I still think that, thanks to the Democrat clown car of candidates, Trump has a very good shot at getting reelected...provided his dementia, the economy and/or Congressional investigations don't shank him like an inmate in the shower at Marion.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
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    Joe,

    Regarding the economy...

    Heard this on NPR last night. Now, I'm not an economist, but I have stayed at a few Holiday Inn Expresses in my day and this does not bode well for Fat Nixon regarding the economy as an issue to run on.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/06/30/73747...reason-to-worr

    And as for Florida....I believe the AG of the State of New York will want a word with him and all of his spawn before he gets to retire to FLA...
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Joe,

    Regarding the economy...

    Heard this on NPR last night. Now, I'm not an economist, but I have stayed at a few Holiday Inn Expresses in my day and this does not bode well for Fat Nixon regarding the economy as an issue to run on.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/06/30/73747...reason-to-worr
    Oh yeah absolutely. I've always contended, and it's been said elsewhere, that Trump inherited an economy that was humming along.
    All he had to do was step back and let it do its thing for the most part. A tweak here and there, certainly. But otherwise simply be a good steward and watchful for problems.

    But no, this is Trump the really stable genius we're talking about. The deal-maker and business prodigy that managed to bankrupt three casinos... So, bring on the trade wars, tariffs, pretty much anything that will destroy a booming economy, he managed it...along with giving huge corporations a massive tax cut ("They'll bring the money back home!" Yeah...no, they didn't). So now we've got a record deficit and an economy that's just begging for a straw to drop on its back.

    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    And as for Florida....I believe the AG of the State of New York will want a word with him and all of his spawn before he gets to retire to FLA...
    Yeah he'll be lucky to drop dead and let his mentally-retarded spawn take the rap for his crimes, because his twilight years are going to be hell on Earth, even without succumbing to Alzheimer's like his old man.

    He had his fun playing president...I have a feeling the bill is going to come due fairly soon.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

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    So now we've got a record deficit and an economy that's just begging for a straw to drop on its back.
    the economic growth is the only thing keeping him and the GOP alive...but 50-60% chance of a recession come 2020.

    the last bits of the old centrist in me still can't believe the deficits piece. all the predictions about five years back or so had -this- period of time being the last period of deficit reduction before the baby boomers began to retire en masse and start to take benefits. the fact that our deficit is expanding at the same rate now (when unemployment is 1-1.5% lower than predicted) as it was in 2009 (when it unemployment was going through the roof) is truly an accomplishment to behold.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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