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Thread: Trump loses his re-election bid and America takes a left turn

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the last bits of the old centrist in me still can't believe the deficits piece. all the predictions about five years back or so had -this- period of time being the last period of deficit reduction before the baby boomers began to retire en masse and start to take benefits. the fact that our deficit is expanding at the same rate now (when unemployment is 1-1.5% lower than predicted) as it was in 2009 (when it unemployment was going through the roof) is truly an accomplishment to behold.

    Could you expand - explain in more detail what you mean by the economics of that?

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    snapper,

    Could you expand - explain in more detail what you mean by the economics of that?
    conservatives like to attack Obama's record on the deficit.

    however, most of the Obama-era deficit arose because of the Great Recession. tax receipts fell as unemployment went up, automatic stabilizers-- pre-Obama mandated spending, such as unemployment insurance/benefits-- went up. (Obama's biggest piece of new spending was the stimulus, approximately $787 billion.)

    Trump, on the other hand, inherited a booming economy. the unemployment rate has fallen to lows not seen since 1969. that means the tax base is larger than ever, and fewer people are using automatic stabilizers than before. this is why analysis from a few years ago predicted that both the US deficit and debt should be falling now. the deficit -was- falling at fairly substantial rates during Obama's second administration.

    yet the US deficit is increasing at almost the same rate as it was in the depths of the Great Recession-- even with better than expected economic growth!

    EDIT:

    here's the CBO prediction of US debt in April 2014.

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    here's the CBO prediction of US debt in January 2019.

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    we have already hit the level of debt (78% of GDP) that the 2014 CBO predicted we would hit in 2024.

    and again, that's with better than expected economic growth.
    Last edited by astralis; 02 Jul 19, at 20:15.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Thankyou. The deficit is not falling I presume is your concern? I understand some economists are also predicting a downturn too in the next year and I read Global manufacturing PMI is negative.

    I am not sure myself if it matters if you increase a deficit a little as long as you spend it wisely; not just in giving those who benefited most by the 2008/9 bailouts new tax cuts.

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    Thankyou. The deficit is not falling I presume is your concern? I understand some economists are also predicting a downturn too in the next year and I read Global manufacturing PMI is negative.

    I am not sure myself if it matters if you increase a deficit a little as long as you spend it wisely; not just in giving those who benefited most by the 2008/9 bailouts new tax cuts.
    it's not that much of a concern to me as it was back when I was a centrist, TBH. it's clear to me now that debt viability is intimately connected to the structure of the governmental system itself.

    IE, even as US debt increases, the US is still relatively more advantaged than the decentralized EU market or the opposite Chinese market rife with CCP interference.

    debt is a problem, yes, but in terms of seriousness there's easily a double handful of problems that pose bigger issues for the US.

    I am not sure myself if it matters if you increase a deficit a little as long as you spend it wisely; not just in giving those who benefited most by the 2008/9 bailouts new tax cuts.
    yup. the tax cut was an enormous waste of money, stimulating the economy when it didn't -need- to be stimulated. does nothing for the long-term economic issues that the US faces, such as ailing physical infrastructure or the relatively inefficient US technological infrastructure.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    the economic growth is the only thing keeping him and the GOP alive...but 50-60% chance of a recession come 2020.

    the last bits of the old centrist in me still can't believe the deficits piece. all the predictions about five years back or so had -this- period of time being the last period of deficit reduction before the baby boomers began to retire en masse and start to take benefits. the fact that our deficit is expanding at the same rate now (when unemployment is 1-1.5% lower than predicted) as it was in 2009 (when it unemployment was going through the roof) is truly an accomplishment to behold.
    Well all those figures from 5 years ago weren't factoring a $1.3 Trillion irresponsible tax cut, were they?
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    Does this mean that tax cuts, which lead to greater investment, which leads to greater job creation, which leads to greater tax receipts, and which leads to lower deficits is a fairy tail?

    Why those rascally Republicans. I knew something didn't add up these last 50 years.

    Definitely brings my mistake to the forefront. Had I continued down the road to billionaire status I would see the benefits to all that and wouldn't be here now especially with that Boston fan. Go Yankees...!

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