Interesting insights from George Friedman. Amazing how he summarises so much
Healthy countries doing well don't need a dictator. Central committees don't elect one but did this time as they were afraid. Why are Chinese investing everywhere else but China. People buying homes and whatnot abroad. If China is doing well why aren't they investing in China. Made a post here several years ago about money leaving China and couldn't figure it out. The best reason is its looking for a safe harbour. The insiders understand how weak the Chinese system is. They don't trust the Chinese economy.
Xi's in trouble in China because he failed to manage the Americans. Foreign policy of China consists essentially of ensuring the American market remains open to China.
The China we know is one model of China. China alternates between a centralisation model and a regionalism one. For now the centralisation model is being tested. If it fails China will revert back to a regionalism model. Revert back to what China was like in the 1850s. Can't assume the way it was will always be.
Chinese investments always come with strings. They make promises as to what will happen but cannot deliver with all of them.
Ten years ago China said the South China sea was theirs. Americans routinely sail through, Indonesians block them, Taiwanese aren't cowed and the Philippinos could run them off if they tried. There has been no advance by the Chinese in the south china sea despite a lot of talk about them doing so. Media claims rising Chinese power but they are no further ahead than they were ten years ago.
China has no ability to intervene in Europe, no ability to intervene in the middle east, cannot go to war with Russia, Their navy can't sail in the western pacific. Very important not to over estimate China. Two parties play up China, the Chinese themselves and the US Navy because they want a bigger budget.
China's goal was to dominate the South China Sea and they can't even pull it off on their frontier. So much for China going to dominate the Indian ocean one day.
China isn't going to start a war in the SCS as the credibility of the regime cannot handle losing it. This is the same reason they haven't moved on Taiwan.
So we see gestures of power. They court with the idea of challenging the Japanese, US & Australia but they always back off because they are a fairly poor weak power.
But we have this great illusion of Chinese power but what have they achieved militarily in the time since they started ie 2008
Healthy countries doing well don't need a dictator. Central committees don't elect one but did this time as they were afraid. Why are Chinese investing everywhere else but China. People buying homes and whatnot abroad. If China is doing well why aren't they investing in China. Made a post here several years ago about money leaving China and couldn't figure it out. The best reason is its looking for a safe harbour. The insiders understand how weak the Chinese system is. They don't trust the Chinese economy.
Xi's in trouble in China because he failed to manage the Americans. Foreign policy of China consists essentially of ensuring the American market remains open to China.
The China we know is one model of China. China alternates between a centralisation model and a regionalism one. For now the centralisation model is being tested. If it fails China will revert back to a regionalism model. Revert back to what China was like in the 1850s. Can't assume the way it was will always be.
Chinese investments always come with strings. They make promises as to what will happen but cannot deliver with all of them.
Ten years ago China said the South China sea was theirs. Americans routinely sail through, Indonesians block them, Taiwanese aren't cowed and the Philippinos could run them off if they tried. There has been no advance by the Chinese in the south china sea despite a lot of talk about them doing so. Media claims rising Chinese power but they are no further ahead than they were ten years ago.
China has no ability to intervene in Europe, no ability to intervene in the middle east, cannot go to war with Russia, Their navy can't sail in the western pacific. Very important not to over estimate China. Two parties play up China, the Chinese themselves and the US Navy because they want a bigger budget.
China's goal was to dominate the South China Sea and they can't even pull it off on their frontier. So much for China going to dominate the Indian ocean one day.
China isn't going to start a war in the SCS as the credibility of the regime cannot handle losing it. This is the same reason they haven't moved on Taiwan.
So we see gestures of power. They court with the idea of challenging the Japanese, US & Australia but they always back off because they are a fairly poor weak power.
But we have this great illusion of Chinese power but what have they achieved militarily in the time since they started ie 2008
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