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Thread: Indian National Elections - 2019

  1. #106
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Nirmala as FM. Not too shabby.
    Not who i was expecting. In any case she has a whole ministry under her to get stuff done.

    I suppose the good news is she has been given an important cabinet post at the beginning and not parachuted in towards the end.

    Now all i want to hear is Doval remains NSA
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 May 19, at 13:24.

  2. #107
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    ^ Jaishankar is an excellent choice as EAM. Amit Shah as HM is another excellent choice in some decades. Kashmir, NE, Red corridor will face the full might of the state now. Stomped.

    I am not happy with Rajnath as DM, but he is a patient man. Nirmala to me, seems eager to learn, whatever portfolio is given to her. I just hope Nirmala as DM earlier know about the conditions of the armed forces and allocates budget wisely, now that she is the FM. Doval will be back.

    Look, whoever leads a ministry, it is the senior bureaucrats under that ministry that makes policies and guides the Minister. It depends on the Minister which action to take forward, which proposal to accept and what to reject. Let's see. Early days.
    Last edited by Oracle; 31 May 19, at 14:42.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  3. #108
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Amit Shah as HM is another excellent choice in some decades. Kashmir, NE, Red corridor will face the full might of the state now. Stomped.
    Can you explain why Amit Shah is best as HM ? I'm not even sure what he was up to earlier. I know him mostly as a campaign manager.

    I am not happy with Rajnath as DM, but he is a patient man.
    Internal security to external ?

    Any major terrorist incident in the country in the last five years for non AFSPA areas, naxal wins or major communal riot ?

    None come to mind. Thank Rajnath for that.

    Nirmala to me, seems eager to learn, whatever portfolio is given to her. I just hope Nirmala as DM earlier know about the conditions of the armed forces and allocates budget wisely, now that she is the FM.
    Got it now, this is just the inverse of what Jaitley went through. It means defense acquisitions will now have an ally in Finance like with Jaitley earlier than an adversary. That should take care of whatever the military wants.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 May 19, at 20:10.

  4. #109
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    This post will be more about the region since Modi has a region first policy. I'm in the market for a watch and found a digital one that has world time and made an interesting but rather shocking discovery.

    Let's look at different regions of the world.

    US, distance from LA to NYC as the crow flies, 3,800 km. How many time zones ? 4. Time difference is 3h

    Australia, distance from Perth to Sydney, ~3,300km. How many times zones ? 4. Time difference is 2h

    Now i know both Americans & Aussies have more time zones but for the purposes of this post am sticking to relevant land mass.

    Europe, distance from Dublin to Ankara, 3,300 km, How many time zones ? 3. Time difference is 2h

    Africa, distance from Rabat to Cairo, 3,600km, How many times zones ? 3. Time difference is 2h

    S.America, distance from Quito to Recife, 4,920km, How many time zones ? 3. Time difference is 2h

    East Asia, distance from Kuala Lumpur to Tokyo, 5,350 km. How many time zones ? 2!! Time difference is 1h

    South Asia, distance from Kabul to Bangkok, 6,400 km. How many time zones ? 7(!) Time difference is 2h30

    See the problem ?

    Let's take IST as the anchor

    1) Kabul, Maldives IST -1h

    2) Karachi IST -30m

    3) Nepal IST +15m (Category of its own. There is NO time difference between Delhi & Bihar but Nepal is 15m ahead. Which idiot decided this ? If an Assamese business man & a Nepali agree to conference call at 10AM, it is guaranteed the Indian will show up 15 min late.... huh? where is Nepal in relation to Assam, east ? NO! Nepal is to the west of Assam. Then why Nepal 15 min ahead of Assam ? Fcuk knows !!

    4) Dhaka, Thimphu IST +30m ( no time difference between cal & tripura but Banglas & Bhutanese are 30m ahead. Which idiot decided this ? This time our Assamese dude gonna be half an hour late. Where is Bhutan in relation to Assam, is it to the east ? no, west? no, its directly north as in just over the border and Assam is longer than Bhutan. The Dhaka thing will screw with Assamese dude also. Is it to the south, kinda, but its also more west of Assam than east. Like Nepal but now there is half hour time difference. Dhaka closer to Assam than Kathmandu. Why Dhaka half hour ahead of Assam ? Fcuk knows !!!

    And there you have it. Three countries to screw with Assamese dude's head should he want to do business there or vice versa (!)

    O pray tell with which other country will the people to people contact from these THREE countries be greatest with ? maybe they should ALL synchronise with IST then. Would that make things simpler ? Can't imagine how it would be harder.

    5) Rangoon IST +1h

    6) Bangkok IST +2h

    WTF does South Asia need 7 time zones ??

    Leave out Burma & Thailand and it becomes 5, still a lot. Burmese want to join IST cool, no worries otherwise. Thais we can leave on their own as they like to be equidistant from every one. They can have their own time zone.

    Look at East Asia. From Malaysia all the way to Beijing or even Perth. NO TIME DIFFERENCE.

    From an integrated region under the Brits this place has fragmented big time.

    India's Time Zones were established in 1884. Originally there were two Time Zones, the Bombay Time and Calcutta Time. Bombay continued to have a different time (39 minutes behind IST) until 1955. IST, which is GMT plus 5.30 hrs, came into existence in 1905.
    Good we sorted out that head fuck.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Jun 19, at 00:11.

  5. #110
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Can you explain why Amit Shah is best as HM ? I'm not even sure what he was up to earlier. I know him mostly as a campaign manager.

    Internal security to external ?

    Any major terrorist incident in the country in the last five years for non AFSPA areas, naxal wins or major communal riot ?

    None come to mind. Thank Rajnath for that.

    Got it now, this is just the inverse of what Jaitley went through. It means defense acquisitions will now have an ally in Finance like with Jaitley earlier than an adversary. That should take care of whatever the military wants.
    China, Pakistan, reforms: Rajnath has his plate full

    With Amit Shah in MHA, terror, insurgency will be dealt with iron hand

    You're right about the points that you've attributed to Rajnath. I think, it's the laid-back attitude, which I don't want in an important cabinet portfolio. Amit Shah, OTOH is, opposite that.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  6. #111
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  7. #112
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Regardless of the results i think this debate both for & against at Oxford Uni makes for interesting listening as the ideological arguments won't go away in this term

    Don't usually see a Pakistani speaking in favour of Modi and wearing a sari but whatever : )

    Janhavi & Gurcharan win it for me hands down.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 05 Jun 19, at 03:04.

  8. #113
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    So we see a repeat of US 2016. The "establishment" media said Trump wouldn't win. He did. Guess what the same establishment in India said no Modi wave !!



    Click the close captions (CC) button for an english translation



    9:50 Don't read op-ed pages. Most op-ed writers don't go any where. If they do they talk to drivers, dabba wallahs or local journalists -- the most dangerous thing and that one academic from the state capital. Everybody goes to that same person

    History may not repeat but it looks alike
    Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Jun 19, at 01:15.

  9. #114
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Long read with pertinent points for foreign policy by Ashley Tellis.

    Troubles Aplenty: Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next Indian Government | Carnegie | May 20 2019

    A successful Indian foreign policy, by definition, is one that creates the external circumstances conducive to realizing India’s fundamental aims, namely,
    - protecting its physical security and its decisional autonomy,
    - enlarging its economic prosperity and its technological capabilities, and
    - realizing its status claims on the global stage.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 14 Jun 19, at 07:46.

  10. #115
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Couple of points that stand out in Ashley's article

    Russia now views the relationship with China as being far more important than that with India. The fundamental reality is that India has little to offer Russia today, apart from being a customer of Russian military technology for its conventional forces and its strategic programs. Both these dependencies are still significant and, as a consequence, Indian leaders have often struggled to find convergence with Moscow on peripheral issues such as the common quest for multipolarity or increasing the relevance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Union. On the most important matters, however—such as the future of Afghanistan or the imperative of balancing China—New Delhi and Moscow are in fact far apart, and it is unlikely that even brilliant diplomacy by the next Indian government will be able to bridge the chasms that have now opened up in Indo-Russian relations.
    It is almost certain that India will resuscitate the currently stalled diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan at some point after the current election, but even this process is unlikely to produce any lasting peace in the subcontinent.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jun 19, at 05:09.

  11. #116
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Bengal Basirhat violence: Families recall how men were chased and killed

    Politics in places like Bengal and Kerala call for political assassinations. What a dumb, egoist, wretched, worthless woman.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  12. #117
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Bengal Basirhat violence: Families recall how men were chased and killed

    Politics in places like Bengal and Kerala call for political assassinations. What a dumb, egoist, wretched, worthless woman.
    Sounds like a good old fashioned turf battle between gangs. I guess suppose this is normal in these states. The new challenger is going to be countered any way possible.

  13. #118
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Another one from Ashley.

    The manner in which Modi has handled subsequent disputes with the United States over, for example, the S-400 purchase from Russia, Trump’s tariffs on Indian goods and his threat to end Indian privileges under the Generalized System of Preferences, Washington’s pressure on New Delhi to end its oil imports from Iran, and the threats posed by a possibly hasty U.S. exit from Afghanistan suggest that Modi remains wedded to deepening ties with the United States in order to meet the major challenge posed by China and to advance long-standing Indian ambitions within South Asia and globally.

    On this score, however, he has not received much help from his compatriots. It is in fact remarkable to see substantial sections of the Indian intellectual left pillorying Modi for his efforts at strengthening ties with the United States, despite the fact that India has been a beneficiary of extraordinary American generosity for close to two decades now. That India should avoid any alignment with the United States because it might compromise its strategic autonomy, inveigle India in possible U.S. conflicts with China, or entrench Beijing as a permanent adversary are all arguments bandied about in New Delhi without reference to reality.

    Moreover, they are often grounded oddly on the assumption that India can satisfactorily balance the rise of China independently (despite the absence of evidence), that India can better secure Chinese concessions on its core interests if its ties to the United States are minimized (when the historical record proves exactly the opposite), or that the United States threatens India’s long-term interests as much as China does (often doubting whether the latter does at all).
    The left's arguments are easy to spot, the right does it too and I've seen this confused thinking in youtube comments

    Even the nationalist right often reaches similar conclusions but through different routes. Secular right-wing commentators argue, often with suspect corroboration, that India’s economic and technological capabilities are weighty enough to permit New Delhi to successfully balance against China through internal means alone, and hence a strategic partnership with the United States is unnecessary. Meanwhile, some who lay stress on cultural constructs in international politics contend that China and India, being great civilizations, have the innate capacity to manage their differences bilaterally—since the disagreements are not axiological but only power-political—which therefore renders New Delhi’s necessity for external balancing, including with the United States, both dispensable and arguably even counterproductive.

    For the moment, none of these claims have particularly impressed Modi, who has pursued his strategy of aligning with the United States undeterred by domestic criticism. Even left-leaning parties, like the Indian National Congress or its regional variants, are likely to pursue similar policies if they form the next government, though their ardor for resolute external balancing with U.S. assistance remains an open question.

    The unforgettable element underlying all these debates, however, is that the Indian body politic is deeply conflicted about entering into any kind of alignments with foreign powers, especially the United States. Whether this ambivalence is rooted in

    - an exaggerated assessment of India’s own capabilities,
    - an underestimation of the threats posed by China,
    - a zealous desire to protect India’s freedom of action in international politics,
    - a conviction that India’s strategic significance ensures that no great power would permit its loss to others, or
    - a disinclination to treat strategic problems seriously in the face of competing domestic challenges, the end result is the same.

    The impetus for a concerted strategic partnership with the United States invariably derives from the vision and personality of the leader at the apex—Vajpayee, Singh, or Modi—rather than from a felt need by the populace at large. In this respect, India is fundamentally different from countries like Israel or Pakistan.
    The current trade disputes with the United States, therefore, have the potential not only to undermine the developing bilateral intimacy necessary for the successful balancing of China but to actually embarrass the Indian prime ministers who have bet on Washington in the face of considerable domestic skepticism.
    ^this
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Jun 19, at 04:17.

  14. #119
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    It was Congress which got India the Indo-US civilian nuke deal. BJP criticised it then. But, whoever comes to power in India knows that without the big benefactor a.k.a United States, India will have it tough. Some of these idiots on both sides should understand that our military fights with weapons of the 60s, and unless we align with the US, there is every chance of a repeat of 1962. Letting men go, fight and die on the border with legacy weapons is heroic for our politicians. Men with the right tools dying on the battlefield constitutes national interest, which in my view is acceptable.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  15. #120
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    So Ashley's recommend is

    The uncomfortable reality, therefore, as far as India’s engagement with the core of the global system is concerned—the most important strategic arena for New Delhi outside its own neighborhood—is that the incoming government will find its ties with both Beijing and Washington to be unsettled concurrently.

    Restoring a desirable equilibrium will require the next Indian prime minister to continue to invest in a strong partnership with the United States despite the vagarious policies pursued by Washington, and that is a tall order, given the headwinds inherent in Indian domestic politics.

    Moreover, preserving cooperative relations with China is also essential, if for no other reason than to reduce Beijing’s incentives to cause trouble for New Delhi in South Asia and beyond.

    Preserving this asymmetric balance, which involves deepening ties with Washington while simultaneously minimizing the offense to Beijing, will remain a continuing challenge for India’s new government, especially when China appears far more predictable and conciliatory than the United States.
    I would not be surprised if Trump bashes India on the campaign trail given how the trade relations are. We just have to ignore despite the media here going to town with it. Same with talk about boycotting China.

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