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Thread: Indian National Elections - 2019

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Today NIA has very little credibility. The LeT connection is most probably hogwash.

    The nation is still reeling from the cloud radar comments, when they were hit by the digital camera and email claims. The man has completely lost it.

    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Today NIA has very little credibility. The LeT connection is most probably hogwash.

    The nation is still reeling from the cloud radar comments, when they were hit by the digital camera and email claims. The man has completely lost it.

    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by lemontree View Post
    Today NIA has very little credibility. The LeT connection is most probably hogwash.
    Sir, it was the FBI that gave India the LeT angle. I've not done my study regarding the other 2 blasts, so cannot talk about them. The Pakistan Army has long been wanting to stage communal riots in India, to tarnish India's image. I would also like to think there are some disgruntled Hindus who are fed of islamic terrorism and the pro-Pakistan crowd in India and want to go the lone-wolf attack way, but not many have been successful. I don't know who to give this credit to, maybe the state Police and IB for a job well done.

    The nation is still reeling from the cloud radar comments, when they were hit by the digital camera and email claims. The man has completely lost it.
    ???
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    A different way of making predictions, instead of exit polls, talking to mid level pols & lower down party workers



    Oracle, you did say you didn't see the enthusiasm with BJP workers in your state. Because they think BJP aren't winning Assam (!)

    Name:  hw assam prediction.JPG
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    This is HW's prediction.

    that graphic looks odd for Assam state i think they mixed it up with something else : )

    This comes as a surprise as three major infrastructure projects got completed in Assam under Modi but just languished for ten years under UPA. Doesn't that count for anything ?!?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 May 19, at 22:35.

  5. #65
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I would also like to think there are some disgruntled Hindus who are fed of islamic terrorism and the pro-Pakistan crowd in India and want to go the lone-wolf attack way, but not many have been successful.
    Godse

    ???
    LT's referring to Modi's comment that hitting Balakote on a cloudy day was a good idea as Modi thought Pak radars couldn't see through the clouds and hence detect our strike package.

    To me this is unimportant, only thing that matters is the green light. Which was not forthcoming with the previous administration.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    A different way of making predictions, instead of exit polls, talking to mid level pols & lower down party workers



    Oracle, you did say you didn't see the enthusiasm with BJP workers in your state. Because they think BJP aren't winning Assam (!)

    Name:  hw assam prediction.JPG
Views: 119
Size:  74.7 KB

    This is HW's prediction.

    that graphic looks odd for Assam state i think they mixed it up with something else : )

    This comes as a surprise as three major infrastructure projects got completed in Assam under Modi but just languished for ten years under UPA. Doesn't that count for anything ?!?
    Public memory is short. People hardly remember the work done 3 months back. Election time people think what they're getting then. Electricity, water supply, roads are still a big issue.

    2014, BJP won 7 seats. Congress = 3. AIUDF = 3. Independent = 1. Total seats = 14.

    Because of the NRC issue which is still lingering, AGP (assamese votes) and AIUDF (muslim votes) stands to gain. Congress (muslim votes) too stands to gain. BJP stands to lose. There should be a distribution of muslim votes between the AIUDF and Congress, which, if happens, BJP stands to gain by winning only Hindu votes, mainly in Bengali dominated places, as well as other constituencies too.

    I did not consider separate constituencies, nor did I have a look at the parties who are contesting in each constituency. Votes here are cast along religious and ethnic lines.

    Difficult to predict. If anything, AGP which was nil in 2014, should make a come back in some seats, which is again NDA, so BJP gain.

    If UPA gets 09 seats, as per your video, then we're screwed. Muslims here in North-East are a bunch of illiterate, madrassa educated, crime prone and have a herd mentality. Some Hindus too are like that to be even handed, except the madrassa thing. Muslims have always voted for the Congress, but AIUDF gave them a second choice. When I say Muslims here in the NE, my comparison is with Muslims in other parts of India. Yes, as a whole they're not doing well in any social-economic indicators, but those aren't as radicalised as the ones here, thanks to the porous border with Bangladesh, and ISI's continued proxy warfare thorough India's neighbours. There are 10s of Mosques playing 'allah knows jack' at times like 3 AM. Who the F starts up a loudspeaker at 3 AM and starting shouting in it? There should be a rule that loudspeakers are not allowed from 10 PM - 7 AM, private or public. And if there are sick people nearby, it should not be allowed at all. The issue here is Muslims bring religion in everything, everywhere. They just cannot keep it inside their house.

    Everyone says love-jihad as a concept is an RSS creation. That it is fake. Doesn't seem to be the case here. 3 or 4 months back, a Hindu girl ran away with her Muslim boyfriend, and is now living in Bangladesh (that video is on Youtube). She at first didn't know the dude was Muslim. Another story, I think I told you earlier, about a teen Hindu girl from Haflong committing suicide (drowned herself in a lake) after she became pregnant, and the Muslim dude didn't accept her and her unborn child. Some guys are often caught masquerading as Hindus with names such as Rahul and all, enticing Hindu girls. They get caught, and then get beaten. Many are not caught at all. Ghazwa-e-Hind by population growth and conversion is at play here. I don't see Hindus making any noise if a Hindu girl and a Christian boy gets married. Well, Christians keep to themselves and they hardly marry anyone outside of their faith. But, I've seen Hindu guys marrying Christians girls.

    I hope you understand what I'm trying to say here. It's not about making a Hindu India. It's about NatSec. It's about peace. 2 weeks back, there was a riot in a nearby district 'Hailakandi' between Muslims and Hindus. Newspapers reported that Muslims kept their bikes infront of Marwari shops and went to the Masjid to pray. Hindus requested those guys to park their vehicle elsewhere as customers couldn't enter their shops, but Muslims didn't listen. Some Hindus then cut the bike seats with blades, and it led to protests, counter protests, and a riot like situation was evolving. In police firing 1 muslim died and 9 others were injured. Mobile internet & broadband services were stopped for 4 days. 4 days. It was like living in the dark ages. Then there are the 'Koibortos'. Koibortos are Hindus from Bangladesh, well most of them are illegal. Maybe all of them are illegal. They are a nuisance and vote for the BJP. It's a communal tinderbox, that bursts from time to time. And no one's sure what to do. Maybe some other time, I'll write about 'Koibortos' and why even the Muslims are afraid of them. Lol.
    Last edited by Oracle; 21 May 19, at 17:43.
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  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Godse
    Godse's ghost. What are we smoking?
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  9. #69
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    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  10. #70
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Public memory is short. People hardly remember the work done 3 months back. Election time people think what they're getting then. Electricity, water supply, roads are still a big issue.

    2014, BJP won 7 seats. Congress = 3. AIUDF = 3. Independent = 1. Total seats = 14.
    Check out the pollniti website. Look for the "All India" pulldown under the years and choose Assam. Now you see results for all national & assembly elections going back to 1980. Quite nifty : )

    As i look at the national election years, there is very little BJP penetration in the noughts then thanks to the Modi wave they win in 2014. What's even more revealing is the Assembly elections, until 2014, the BJP in 2001, 2006 & 2011 barely breaks double digits then in the assembly elections 2016 gets 60. That's quite a jump. So it would be surprising if BJP loses Assam at the national level within three years. Yet you said those BJP workers sensed it. I've realised if those workers are down the party's chances are slim. Does not matter if there is one Modi or ten. These guys if there is any infighting or disagreement with who will be CM will sink the party on their own. This is why during the UP assembly election they never mentioned who the CM would be. There were ten factions wanting to get their preferred candidate in and finally Yogi was declared at the end. All down to Amit Shah's able management but he is not a miracle worker.

    For all that i've heard about Assam & Banglas over the past ten years, the BJP's performance there has been lack luster to say the least if you consider assembly elections or national elections in the noughts, leaving out 2014 onwards. Earlier, Assam was shared between local parties & Congress. Never was a BJP state.

    Because of the NRC issue which is still lingering, AGP (assamese votes) and AIUDF (muslim votes) stands to gain. Congress (muslim votes) too stands to gain. BJP stands to lose. There should be a distribution of muslim votes between the AIUDF and Congress, which, if happens, BJP stands to gain by winning only Hindu votes, mainly in Bengali dominated places, as well as other constituencies too.
    It's funny given the heat around NRC i thought NRC would be a BJP win vehicle in Assam but it looks like the opposite from what you said. We'll see.

    I did not consider separate constituencies, nor did I have a look at the parties who are contesting in each constituency. Votes here are cast along religious and ethnic lines.

    Difficult to predict. If anything, AGP which was nil in 2014, should make a come back in some seats, which is again NDA, so BJP gain.
    AGP is interesting, in the 80's they had all of Assam, Congress makes inroads here & there. 90's AGP still hold on but in '98 Congress makes more gains, and in '99 BJP opens up shop eating further into AGP's share. 2000's sees that share getting reduced further and in 2014 they have no wins. Because the BJP has co-opted their agenda.

    If UPA gets 09 seats, as per your video, then we're screwed. Muslims here in North-East are a bunch of illiterate, madrassa educated, crime prone and have a herd mentality. Some Hindus too are like that to be even handed, except the madrassa thing. Muslims have always voted for the Congress, but AIUDF gave them a second choice. When I say Muslims here in the NE, my comparison is with Muslims in other parts of India. Yes, as a whole they're not doing well in any social-economic indicators, but those aren't as radicalised as the ones here, thanks to the porous border with Bangladesh, and ISI's continued proxy warfare thorough India's neighbours. There are 10s of Mosques playing 'allah knows jack' at times like 3 AM. Who the F starts up a loudspeaker at 3 AM and starting shouting in it? There should be a rule that loudspeakers are not allowed from 10 PM - 7 AM, private or public. And if there are sick people nearby, it should not be allowed at all. The issue here is Muslims bring religion in everything, everywhere. They just cannot keep it inside their house.
    If UPA wins then i agree things will go backwards as Congress will pander to the lowest common denominator muslim there. Why do they always do this ?!? Just business. All about votes. This is why the BJP foists Pragya in Bhopal. It's just the same crap.

    About the loud speaker business, a friend from a muslim area told me the RWA's got together and asked the mosque to tone it down. Mosque complied. It can be that easy with the right attitude : )

    3AM ? that is strange, usually its at the crack of dawn. Pretty sure the sun does not get up that early in Assam.

    Everyone says love-jihad as a concept is an RSS creation. That it is fake. Doesn't seem to be the case here. 3 or 4 months back, a Hindu girl ran away with her Muslim boyfriend, and is now living in Bangladesh (that video is on Youtube). She at first didn't know the dude was Muslim. Another story, I think I told you earlier, about a teen Hindu girl from Haflong committing suicide (drowned herself in a lake) after she became pregnant, and the Muslim dude didn't accept her and her unborn child. Some guys are often caught masquerading as Hindus with names such as Rahul and all, enticing Hindu girls. They get caught, and then get beaten. Many are not caught at all. Ghazwa-e-Hind by population growth and conversion is at play here.
    love jihad as part of ghazwa-e-hind is not conducive to population growth. If the idea is population growth & conversion there can be no love jihad.

    So which is it ?

    I don't see Hindus making any noise if a Hindu girl and a Christian boy gets married. Well, Christians keep to themselves and they hardly marry anyone outside of their faith. But, I've seen Hindu guys marrying Christians girls.
    The hindu guy usually has to convert in that case isn't it ?

    If supply is more among Hindus its harder to keep to the faith.

    I hope you understand what I'm trying to say here. It's not about making a Hindu India. It's about NatSec. It's about peace. 2 weeks back, there was a riot in a nearby district 'Hailakandi' between Muslims and Hindus. Newspapers reported that Muslims kept their bikes infront of Marwari shops and went to the Masjid to pray. Hindus requested those guys to park their vehicle elsewhere as customers couldn't enter their shops, but Muslims didn't listen. Some Hindus then cut the bike seats with blades, and it led to protests, counter protests, and a riot like situation was evolving. In police firing 1 muslim died and 9 others were injured. Mobile internet & broadband services were stopped for 4 days. 4 days. It was like living in the dark ages. Then there are the 'Koibortos'. Koibortos are Hindus from Bangladesh, well most of them are illegal. Maybe all of them are illegal. They are a nuisance and vote for the BJP. It's a communal tinderbox, that bursts from time to time. And no one's sure what to do. Maybe some other time, I'll write about 'Koibortos' and why even the Muslims are afraid of them. Lol.
    Such a petty reason and see the outcome. More outreach between communities is needed. If this us & them mentality continues you only get more of the same. Look up this guy

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asghar_Ali_Engineer

    He passed away recently, more like him are needed from the Sunni community especially in this age of radicalism.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 21 May 19, at 22:32.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It's funny given the heat around NRC i thought NRC would be a BJP win vehicle in Assam but it looks like the opposite from what you said. We'll see.
    NRC is a linear equation. Assamese wants illegals out, and that includes muslims bengalis as well as hindu bengalis, even Rohingyas. The cut-off is till 1971. BJP and PM Modi said all Hindus, Jains, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists are welcome from Afghanistan/Pakistan/Bangladesh, that they would be given citizenship. Do you see the contrast here? Ultimately it's all for votes. Congress wanted to consolidate their hold, so it turned a blind eye on illegal muslims. BJP wants to consolidate its base with everything other than muslims, so they are turning a blind eye to illegal hindus from Bangladesh. AGP, though in the NDA, sensed blood and jumped in as a savior of Assamese. Funny, Ahoms are the original inhabitants, and they don't have a voice. It's numbers.

    AGP is interesting, in the 80's they had all of Assam, Congress makes inroads here & there. 90's AGP still hold on but in '98 Congress makes more gains, and in '99 BJP opens up shop eating further into AGP's share. 2000's sees that share getting reduced further and in 2014 they have no wins. Because the BJP has co-opted their agenda.
    Assam was always a Congress bastion since independence. The place where I live, every election, sends a Congress MP to Delhi. Even though I voted for the BJP, it's chance of winning is next to nil. Leadership issue, same as in Bengal. AGP rode to power on support of Assamese votes and their motto was 'get rid of bangal'. Mind you, every leader of AGP comes from the AASU. But, when AGP came to power in 1985, they found out that the grass on the other side of fence was rotting. Prafulla broke the backbone of the ULFA. He had to act within the constitution then, precisely what Sonowal is doing now. Assam was this huge land mass pre-independence, and even after independence. Now look at Assam's land mass. Hate for all doesn't work. Communal feelings doesn't work. I, We, Assamese, have shrinked Assam to what it is today.

    BJP made inroads as AGP's core support base got disillusioned. BJP built itself on AGP's support base. Himanta has said that, to save Assam we need a Hindu identity now. Hindu Assamese, Hindu Bengali etc won't save Assam from the demographic disaster that is coming. He is correct.

    If UPA wins then i agree things will go backwards as Congress will pander to the lowest common denominator muslim there. Why do they always do this ?!? Just business. All about votes. This is why the BJP foists Pragya in Bhopal. It's just the same crap.

    About the loud speaker business, a friend from a muslim area told me the RWA's got together and asked the mosque to tone it down. Mosque complied. It can be that easy with the right attitude : )

    3AM ? that is strange, usually its at the crack of dawn. Pretty sure the sun does not get up that early in Assam.
    What I've noticed is whenever the mullah thinks he needs to take a dump, he starts the loudspeaker. It can be at 2 AM. Sometimes it continues for the whole night, till 5 AM. Even Hindus do these shit. Any Puja, one'd see loudspeakers in every nook and corner. Even if there is some kind of religious festival at home, people play loudspeakers. But, it dies down by 12 AM, doesn't continue throughout the night. It should be banned constitutionally, no need of RWA. I don't see Christians using loudspeakers.

    love jihad as part of ghazwa-e-hind is not conducive to population growth. If the idea is population growth & conversion there can be no love jihad.

    So which is it ?
    See it this way. 1 Hindu female less for Hindus means, 1 female more for Muslims to breed. Sorry, I had to write this crap, but this is what the thinking is amongst muslims here. Why lie with Hindu names in the first place? It's numbers. Numbers make up a mob.

    The hindu guy usually has to convert in that case isn't it ?

    If supply is more among Hindus its harder to keep to the faith.
    Not always. I've seen many cases where neither the guy converts, nor the woman.

    Such a petty reason and see the outcome. More outreach between communities is needed. If this us & them mentality continues you only get more of the same. Look up this guy

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asghar_Ali_Engineer

    He passed away recently, more like him are needed from the Sunni community especially in this age of radicalism.
    Bohra's as a community are business oriented and peaceful. But 1 or 2 secular muslims don't make up for the image they've got worldwide. If Muslims in India have to race along all others, they need quality education. All madrassas should be be banned. Quran should be taught at home. Else, muslims will forever remain the demographic disaster, that they are. Another solution is to bomb KSA, Pakistan type countries and install real democracy there, so that muslims far and wide understand that there is a better way of life and they don't have to cut the throats of infidels.
    Last edited by Oracle; 22 May 19, at 04:19.
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    He's Shia. Gives it back to islamists. Cool dude. Islam needs more and more guys like him. The day Islam consists of even 30% guys who think like him, will be the day that we can proudly say reform has started within Islamic circles.
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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    You can tell they know they are going to lose when they keep banging on about paper ballots. We don't need more repeats of the rigged 1987 J&K Assembly elections by paper ballot !!


    Opposition’s Stand on EVM Worse Than Farce, Says Ex-RAW Chief Sood | Quint | May 22 2019

    Sood's twitter thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You can tell they know they are going to lose when they keep banging on about paper ballots. We don't need more repeats of the rigged 1987 J&K Assembly elections by paper ballot !!


    Opposition’s Stand on EVM Worse Than Farce, Says Ex-RAW Chief Sood | Quint | May 22 2019

    Sood's twitter thread
    Union Home Ministry asks states, UTs to remain alert; says calls given in various quarters for inciting violence

    Voting has been fair and square. The only place where it was not is Bengal (video shown on news channels, some TMC dude kinda helping people to vote, yeah right), and other regional parties. Ofcourse they'd cry. Losers.

    Why violence? Because it puts outside watchers in quandary about - what if elections were not fair. Life's not fair scamgress. Get used to it.
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