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Thread: Indian National Elections - 2019

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Was thinking of Vajpayee and wondering why he lost in 2004

    Did the nuke test then won kargil, got the hostages back and was the most decent politician we'd ever get.

    After winning Rajasthan, Chatisgarh & MP Vajpayee felt confident and decided to call elections six months early. And then he lost

    He'd been PM three times at that point.

    Some one already looked at this question earlier.

    Attachment 47534

    There's two curious things that stand out among those numbers. How Congress lost in 1999 with nearly 20 million more votes and how BJP lost in 2004 with only a 2% drop in votes compared to 1999. No big swing or wave.

    Both times Congress wins the popular vote. So winning popular vote is no guarantee of success.

    Those votes must be distributed around the country and not be only in a few deep pockets.

    It is this arithmetic that makes predicting win or loss in 2019 very difficult



    That is how Congress won in 2004. To win people all over the country must give support.

    Same reason why the Democrats lost in 2016
    My very simplistic analysis.

    To the common man, Roti Kapda and Makan are more important that rem mandir, nationalism, secularism, communalism and all other esoteric ideologies, good or bad.

    In 2004, BJP fought on "India shining" and what they have achieved. They lost. In 2014, Modi fought on how he would give India toilets, jobs and economic growth. The ideological message was played down. He won handily.

    This time congress has a strong message around their minimum income scheme (which sounds attrative) and may have a strong play with that. Modi needs to say what he will do on the economic front rather than resting on the laurels of the surgical strike.
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    At the end of the day, a happy Indian (nationalist/patriot/leftist/communist) is one who sits with his family and has a stomach full of food. Food requires money. Money requires economic growth & opportunities. This has been missing w.r.t GDP growth in the last 5 years, but the thing is policies of today will have an effect on the country's economy after 2-3 more days. 1 day = 1 year, assuming. It takes time for policies to be implemented and subsequent job generation. Hence my vote is for the BJP. We should give them another 5 years, and only then decide, if we have to throw them out or keep them.

    As far as Congress is concerned, they might increase their tally, but frankly, their manifesto didn't impress me. The country just doesn't have the money to implement hardcore socialist schemes. Socialism has destroyed this country. What we need in India today is center-right economics, and liberal political agenda. By center-right economics I mean opening of the economy, attracting more FDI, easy to do business, getting away with permit raj etc etc. As per liberal political agenda, the country should do away with old school of thoughts about couples renting a room at a hotel (not illegal but discrimination persists), LGBTQ rights (not illegal but discrimination persists), smoking marijuana (illegal), government encouraging more people to drink beer/wine as they have a lower % of alcohol as compared to rum/whisky etc etc. Minorities shouldn't be hounded by anyone, anyone means anyone. Reforms of Police and Judiciary. Online filing of FIR and tracking progress made (need just a web application), and so many more things to make the life of Indians easier.

    Talking about Police, policemen recruited in UP (bhaiyyas) should be posted in Nagaland for a lifetime of service, so that they can resist the pressure of the bureaucracy and corrupt politicians of their cadre state (IPS like, no caste/religious equations in cadre state), as also understand and etch it in their mind, that people from that part of the country look different, their food choices are different and they have a distinct culture which again makes them different, yet Indian in every sense. Just some random tidbits.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  3. #18
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    My very simplistic analysis.
    Idea is to imagine BJP has the popular vote yet that could still not translate into a win. I would not rule out a BJP defeat in this election. Whether its probable is still unlikely. The way the seats work with first past the post means anything is possible if the votes are there.

    To the common man, Roti Kapda and Makan are more important that rem mandir, nationalism, secularism, communalism and all other esoteric ideologies, good or bad.
    What about emotions ? Are elections fought on that or economy. Both Narasimha & Vajpayee left the economy in a very good state. How did the electorate reward them? Narasimha was cut down to size and you can see the seats loss with BJP in 2004. Piyush Goel mentioned the only reason the economy still worked well into UPA1 was since the commies & Congress were blocking each other that they could not undo the policy the previous NDA govt implemented.

    In 2004, BJP fought on "India shining" and what they have achieved. They lost.
    A 2 lakh drop in BJP votes means India shining was not responsible for the BJP loss. This analysis debunks that theory. Rather it is arguing that Congress was able to win by campaigning wider. Better translate that popular vote surplus into seats

    In 2014, Modi fought on how he would give India toilets, jobs and economic growth. The ideological message was played down. He won handily.
    The hindutva thing has been soft pedalled all through this administration and i don't see them pushing for it this time either. Yogi might make a few pointed remarks here & there.

    Modi seems to be playing up the insecurity theme. Those against are anti-India.

    This time congress has a strong message around their minimum income scheme (which sounds attrative) and may have a strong play with that. Modi needs to say what he will do on the economic front rather than resting on the laurels of the surgical strike.
    How to fund these schemes ? without more details it seems like more than the defense budget is needed every year for them. I really dread such a scheme and we will definitely fall behind on defence if such a scheme is enacted. Either that or the fisc will get worse. Now, should growth get into double digits then a bad fisc will still be sustainable but how long can we keep growth in that territory. Once such schemes are enacted they are never removed and over time become a burden.

    India needs development schemes not compensatory ones. US talks about populism now a days but India has been at it for decades. Congress promised farmer loan waivers in Karnataka last year, they are yet to deliver on them.

    The reason people didn't see much improvements is the govt had to clean up the mess of the last govt. They brought down the fiscal deficit from 7% to 3%. Cannot do that without pain. There is now room for measures that can improve the economy. It's more robust as well. Modi has brought in FDi year on year with the last year amounting to $60bn. We are overdue for a global recession in the next five years. A healthy economy will withstand blows better.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Apr 19, at 16:00.

  4. #19
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The opposition isn't holding together which opens the way for the BJP to sweep. 300 seem feasible ?

    Congress manifesto's oxymoronic promises show Rahul is a curious mix of misplaced idealism, reckless populism | FP | Apr 03 2019

    Chinese invested $65bn in venuezeuela back in 2007. They're still trying to get it back

    Lest we need reminders about how effectively socialism kills, we may only look at oil-rich Venezuela, once the fourth richest country in the world on per capita basis.

    “Venezuela is a woeful reminder that no country is so rich that it can’t be driven into the ground by revolutionary socialism. People are now literally starving — about three-quarters of the population lost weight last year… A country that has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia is suffering shortages of basic supplies.”

    And how did things unfold in Venezuela?

    former Venezuela president Hugo Chavez started the process of running the country into ground and Nicolas Maduro is finishing the task. Venezuela followed what The New York Times calls the “orthodox socialist script”. Chavez once promised to bring 21st Century socialism in Venezuela by nationalising the country’s vast oil industry to fund — Rahul please pay attention — government welfare programmes.

    “Chavez fired thousands of oil employees, executives and workers, replacing them with 80,000 political operatives. When Chavez threatened foreign corporations, they abandoned Venezuela, taking billions of dollars in investment with them,” wrote CNN. The State failed to produce same amount of oil in the same price point, and its economy started imploding.

    Under Chavez and then Maduro, government spending kept increasing, minimum wages were repeatedly raised and State-owned cooperatives that numbered roughly 100,000 by 2006 employed more than 700,000 workers. What followed reminds us of the destructive power of socialist principles and its close relationship with corruption.

    “Government overspending created catastrophic deficits when oil prices plummeted. Worker co-ops wound up in the hands of incompetent and corrupt political cronies,” wrote Bret Stephens in The New York Times. The government responded by printing more money and triggering hyperinflation that eventually turned Venezuela’s currency into garbage.

    “Inflation led to price controls, leading to shortages. Shortages led to protests, leading to repression and the destruction of democracy. Thence to widespread starvation, critical medical shortages, an explosion in crime, and a refugee crisis to rival Syria’s.”
    The road to serfdom beckons

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  6. #21
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Facebook has been cracking down on influence ops by PAk ISPR, A chinese company called Byte Dance as well as Congress & BJP IT cells. They have learnt how to deal with these matters after the 2016 US elections as well as the French & German elections. People are saying they are being heavy handed, well it looks like they are dealing with everyone in a similar manner.


  7. #22
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    PM Modi may face some civil service departures from his office if re-elected: Sources

    The last para - People in private companies including myself have worked for 14-16 hours almost daily. There were times I have worked for close to 48 hours continuously. So, WTF are these babus complaining about? These kind of people are the useless fat in the government that needs to be trimmed. With all the free facilities they get, some of them - oops - many of them still don't want to work, so how do they justify their lethargic attitude? Blame the centre-right government on communal lines.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  8. #23
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    ^ i don't know what to make of this article

    "The country needs a professional administration for economic development and can't depend on generalists," said Ashwani Mahajan, co-convenor of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), the economic wing of the RSS that has campaigned against some bureaucrats.

    Last year, Modi proposed bringing in at least ten professionals from the private sector into the civil service at the joint secretary level, but the plan has still to be implemented, and is facing strong resistance from civil servants.
    I agree with this

    There is a wider concern in the civil service about India being ruled by a Hindu nationalist party that some see destroying the country's previous tolerant and secular nature.
    However I am concerned about this. Though to date i see more accusation of it than actual demonstration.

    RSS functionaries have had a major role in successfully lobbying for big changes at the Reserve Bank of India, for example, leading to last December's resignation of its governor and his replacement with an official who is considered more loyal to Modi, officials said.
    And i don't know what to make of this other than to say it was a very public spat that should have been better handled. The impression i got is the FM wanted to dip into the national reserves but the RBI chairman didn't allow it.

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    However I am concerned about this. Though to date i see more accusation of it than actual demonstration.
    These guys who doesn't want to work will always find excuses. They have inherited this trait since independence. Chalta hai attitude. Now that they are getting squeezed, having to work 12 hours, they complain about tolerance and secular nature of Indian politics. These same guys were acting in cahoot with the previous Congress governments in looting taxpayers moneys for decades, keeping this country backward, and gifting themselves plum positions.

    And i don't know what to make of this other than to say it was a very public spat that should have been better handled. The impression i got is the FM wanted to dip into the national reserves but the RBI chairman didn't allow it.
    Yes. It should have been handled better and dipping into RBI reserves should only be for emergencies. But we have a career lawyer as the FM, so what good can we expect. Focus on opening the economy idiots, then you won't need to beg the RBI for money for your socialist crap policies.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  10. #25
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    TBut we have a career lawyer as the FM, so what good can we expect. Focus on opening the economy idiots, then you won't need to beg the RBI for money for your socialist crap policies.
    The amount of hate Jaitley attracts is legendary and this is even among those supporting the party : D

    Nalapat's slam is this NDA was a Vajpayee cabinet with a Manmohan administration. People were expecting Modi to replace the administration with people of his orientation but it never happened. I suppose that might happen now. And we will see what the results are.

    Modi's BJP-led alliance is tipped to win a slim majority in the April-May general election, pollsters say.
    A slim majority assumes Congress can cross 100 seats. Can they ?

    They are contesting on their own with the idea there will be post poll alliances. This model might have worked on a state level but it does not offer much to those that want a change as its unclear who and what policies will come after as a result of coalition compulsions.

    Congress starts to get dangerous if they touch 140. At this point they can enter coalitions and even form the next govt.

    The optimists think Modi can do 300+. I think crossing 200 is feasible.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Apr 19, at 20:12.

  11. #26
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Assam man beaten up, ‘forced to eat pork’ for selling beef

    What happened is a damn crime, not the fault of BJP or Modi.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The amount of hate Jaitley attracts is legendary and this is even among those supporting the party : D

    Nalapat's slam is this NDA was a Vajpayee cabinet with a Manmohan administration. People were expecting Modi to replace the administration with people of his orientation but it never happened. I suppose that might happen now. And we will see what the results are.
    Not hate, the feeling is of disgust for that incompetent person. He botched up GST and so many things he could have done. Agree with Nalapat. What people expected, and what people got. 7%+ GDP growth should be seen as an insult as far as the size and capability of the people of this country is concerned.

    A slim majority assumes Congress can cross 100 seats. Can they ?

    They are contesting on their own with the idea there will be post poll alliances. This model might have worked on a state level but it does not offer much to those that want a change as its unclear who and what policies will come after as a result of coalition compulsions.

    Congress starts to get dangerous if they touch 140. At this point they can enter coalitions and even form the next govt.

    The optimists think Modi can do 300+. I think crossing 200 is feasible.
    My gut feeling is NDA (BJP and allies) gets a majority. Somewhere around 290+. Frankly, I don't see the zeal of BJP workers this time. More than half the time was spent on fighting allegations of corruption from the Congress, which frankly was unnecessary.

    Congress will improve its tally, but I haven't done much research on them, so can't say right now, even then I don't think they will cross 100 seats. Regional parties will grab the remaining seats (BJP/Congress allies, 3rd front or whatever etc). However, right now, since we live in a state of flux, we might be surprised.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  13. #28
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    High time the opposition got its choon out



    what stands out ? no flags (unless you count the congress party flag), no soldiers or flash bangs.

    BJP got its tune out Mar 15. Only 1.1M views

    Congress got its tune out Apr 08. In 4 days it has 2.5M views

    Further more the BJP channel has three times the subscribers as the Congress channel

    All subscribers to the BJP channel saw the BJP tune at least once.

    But five times the number of Congress subscribers saw the Congress tune.

    They liked it so much each one played it five times, yes that must be it : D
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Apr 19, at 01:35.

  14. #29
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    High time the opposition got its choon out



    what stands out ? no flags (unless you count the congress party flag), no soldiers or flash bangs.

    BJP got its tune out Mar 15. Only 1.1M views

    Congress got its tune out Apr 08. In 4 days it has 2.5M views

    Further more the BJP channel has three times the subscribers as the Congress channel

    All subscribers to the BJP channel saw the BJP tune at least once.

    But five times the number of Congress subscribers saw the Congress tune.

    They liked it so much each one played it five times, yes that must be it : D
    BJP's video is getting close to 1.2M views. Congress', OTOH, has crossed 4M views. I'll be frank, I like the Congress' video more.

    But, do we want to become a banana republic? RahulG can't even argue, has no knowledge of anything significant, plays petty politics which doesn't do good to his image (being crown prince), and chants the mantra of socialist freebies. India is a country of freebies, every political party doles that out. But where the BJP is good, is not putting it in their manifesto overtly, which the Congress has yet to learn. If RG had any chance, he's lost it by now. There were so many issues with which the Congress could have cornered the BJP - job generation, demonetisation, few bits of polarisation the country has seen. But since he has no grey matter, he questioned the Government for the air-strike on Pak. He wanted proof. No self-respectful Indian would do that, particularly when we deal with this terrorist country. Then we have ridiculous sound bytes from Chidambaram, Mani Shanker, Digvijay and more. These oldies are taking Congress to its grave.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  15. #30
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Trinamool's tune



    Telegu Desam party



    National Conference comes across more like an ad

    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Apr 19, at 18:28.

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