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  • Excellent points made

    The Post-Balakot challenge | IE | Mar 11 2019

    There is a recognition that India’s strategic patience is over and that Pakistani terrorist adventurism should cease. India should emphasise this point. The international desire that hostilities should end is on a different footing as is the US’s intervention for this purpose. The question is if all this erodes India’s policy of no involvement of third parties in India-Pakistan relations. The fact is major powers take an interest in issues of war and peace — as does India in areas where its interests get involved.
    Another



    Interesting doctrinal observation.

    It was thought the escalation ladder began the moment India reacted to a terrorist incident. So it was India that world counseled to exercise restraint. India must not respond kinetically. Dangerous.

    After Balkote its becoming clear that the ladder begins the moment the terrorist incident occurs. The provocation. So it is Pakistan that the world counsels to exercise restraint. Don't provoke. India will respond. Now the onus of stopping the spiral lies with Pakistan as they began it.

    See the switch

    Complicates Pak planning. It has to.

    We're also one step ahead.

    The provocation begins not with the terrorist attack but with the preparations for that terrorist attack.

    Meaning India will not only reply to a provocation but if India has to pre-empt a major attack they will strike too
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Mar 19,, 04:14.

    Comment


    • A Smoldering Volcano: Pakistan and Terrorism after Balakot | Carnegie | Mar 14 2019

      In depth piece by Ashley Tellis. Details American involvement behind the scenes. Trump's administration handled this one just right.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Start handing top militants over as a CBM. Azhar is ailing, we will look after him. You have to win over the people in charge and that begins with the hardliners in India.

        After 26/11 nobody has patience for talk. Zero. Just like there was zero justice for 26/11.
        Pakistan is not handing anyone over to India - period. Modi can beg and grovel however much he likes. The solution is going to be along the lines of what I outlined and it will be gradual to minimize any potential domestic blowback.
        Yeah there is going to be blow back, there will likely be more Peshawar like attacks. But does this mean India should continue to be attacked because no action can be taken in Pakistan ? won't sell.

        We have the right to self defense.
        What you have is the right to share evidence to preempt terrorist attacks against India. I don't recall India sharing intelligence against upcoming attacks (since the justification for bombing trees and rocks in Balakot was to pre-empt some alleged terrorist plot), nor do I recall India sharing intelligence with Pakistan to preempt attacks in the recent past. With respect to Pulwama, as I pointed out, the bomber, explosives, materials and abettors were all local. IED/VBIED expertise is widely available within ISIS, AQ, AT, TTP, JuA etc it's not exactly some 'ISI State secret', so in essence India has absolutely ZERO credible evidence tangibly tying the Pulwama attack to Pakistan.

        That said, India is free to bomb trees and rocks as 'self defence' (like it did in Balakot), and Pakistan is free to respond and shoot down IAF jets in response (as it did when responding to Indian violations of Pakistani airspace after Balakot). Keep in mind that the PAF exercised restraint with the initial IAF incursion (standard peacetime RoE of warning intruding aircraft and escorting them back out of Pakistani airspace). That element of surprise and those RoE's will not be in place next time.

        JeM parliament attacks Srinagar & Lok Sabha then Pathankot and now Pulwama. How did JeM get on the radar after years of being quiet.
        Pathankot was claimed by the UJC and Pulwama was local so JeM has been largely quiet in recent years which goes back to my point of 'containment', while not ideal, has worked.

        Hafez Saeed moves around freely in Pakistan and advocates violence against us. This is a UN designated & banned terrorist in Pakistan.
        Do the UN sanctions prevent him from speaking publicly?
        From time to time he gets put under house arrest and then freed. Recently he applies for de-listing but was rejected.
        If the process allows him to apply for de-listing, then blame the process, not the individuals working through the process.
        Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
        https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

          Order to execute Pulwama most definitely came from the ISI. I don't buy the ISI cannot control its auxilliiaries argument. Militants that are out of control will be dropped and disappear.
          And you can make such a categorical claim based on what exactly?

          Militants that are 'out of control' are likely mid level commanders, and we'll never know whether they've 'disappeared'. If JeM can plot and carry out assassination attempts against the Army chief, collaborate with the TTP in conducting attacks on the Pakistani military (something you acknowledge) then you can't really argue that the military has this absolute control over the JeM.

          In addition, there is no motive for the ISI to push the trigger on these attacks. Indians and many commentators in the West have continued to cling to a largely outdated understanding of the mindset of the Pakistani military leadership, perhaps deliberately because it fits in with the broader US goal of propping India up as a hedge against China, which in turn requires controlling Pakistan. The Pakistani military leadership, going back to Kayani, has emphasized terrorism and economic growth being the two most critical challenges facing Pakistan. Improving domestic security dovetails with my previous comments on the domestic (referring to institutional leadership) consensus of disarming ALL non-State actors, with the State holding a monopoly on violence (Bajwa reiterated that last part a week or so ago).

          There has also been a recognition within Pakistan that India under Modi has accomplished more in terms of mobilizing Kashmir opinion against India than any isolated militant attacks. It's the Kashmiri stone throwers and protesters that give life to the dispute, not attacks on military camps, and that's where Pakistan wants to focus - to give a voice to the mass of locals demanding an end to Indian occupation.
          Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
          https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

          Comment


          • DE,

            And just to make clear, I'm not arguing against disarming/neutralizing any violent Kashmir focused, Pakistan based groups - I'm questioning the Indian rationale and motives to escalate while also questioning the Indian mantra of automatically blaming Pakistan regardless of what the evidence says.

            The way I see it, Pakistan has done a lot to reduce the violence from Pakistan based groups against India - something that Pakistan feels Modi especially has refused to acknowledge, and in fact gone out of his way to blame Pakistan for. He's engaged in hate-mongering & anti-Pakistan hysteria domestically through a manipulated media (all those anonymous government sources that pop up with fantastic claims on Indian TV and print) to the point where any major terrorist attack HAS to be blamed on Pakistan.
            Last edited by Agnostic Muslim; 20 Mar 19,, 15:17.
            Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
            https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
              And you can make such a categorical claim based on what exactly?
              How well it fits in with the Pak military agenda on India. Never against. That would be a death sentence.

              The timing of the attack to help Modi win. That's interference in Indian politics. Without Pulwama its was 50-50 whether the BJP would get a second term. I'd say its more certain now.

              Modi is good for business and the Pak military too : )

              Militants that are 'out of control' are likely mid level commanders, and we'll never know whether they've 'disappeared'. If JeM can plot and carry out assassination attempts against the Army chief, collaborate with the TTP in conducting attacks on the Pakistani military (something you acknowledge) then you can't really argue that the military has this absolute control over the JeM.
              Why didn't you take them out ? Loose cannons are a liability

              In addition, there is no motive for the ISI to push the trigger on these attacks. Indians and many commentators in the West have continued to cling to a largely outdated understanding of the mindset of the Pakistani military leadership, perhaps deliberately because it fits in with the broader US goal of propping India up as a hedge against China, which in turn requires controlling Pakistan. The Pakistani military leadership, going back to Kayani, has emphasized terrorism and economic growth being the two most critical challenges facing Pakistan. Improving domestic security dovetails with my previous comments on the domestic (referring to institutional leadership) consensus of disarming ALL non-State actors, with the State holding a monopoly on violence (Bajwa reiterated that last part a week or so ago).
              Nothing is outdated, that mindset has remained so remarkably consistent since 1947 that is ingrained by now.

              The other thing that is consistent is what you said. That things are changing. When one looks for what has changed one finds the same old.

              The line was more credible with Nawaz, look what happened to him. It has zero credibility with IK. A month after he entered office and people heard him they realised there was nothing to see. Nothing to expect. Nothing to hope for.

              I don't think in this case the US is propping up India as a hedge against China. This is the US using India to control Pakistan to achieve their objectives in Afghanistan.

              There has also been a recognition within Pakistan that India under Modi has accomplished more in terms of mobilizing Kashmir opinion against India than any isolated militant attacks. It's the Kashmiri stone throwers and protesters that give life to the dispute, not attacks on military camps, and that's where Pakistan wants to focus - to give a voice to the mass of locals demanding an end to Indian occupation.
              Those stone throwers & protesters are overground workers. What normal person takes their kids to a stone pelting event. What normal person interferes in security operations and comes in between. These people are trained to do that. They are not normal civilians.

              The corps commanders have made it clear that they do so at their own risk.

              There are just two districts in the whole of kashmir that have this problem. North & central are quiet. 15% of the population has an issue.

              The way we will deal with this is through legal frameworks. 35A will go and then it will be 370. The Hurriyat & separatists will be disbanded.

              The issue is terrorism. Until those attacks come down there is nothing to discuss.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Mar 19,, 21:52.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                DE,

                And just to make clear, I'm not arguing against disarming/neutralizing any violent Kashmir based groups - I'm questioning the Indian rationale and motives to escalate while also questioning the Indian mantra of automatically blaming Pakistan regardless of what the evidence says.

                The way I see it, Pakistan has done a lot to reduce the violence from Pakistan based groups against India - something that Pakistan feels Modi especially has refused to acknowledge, and in fact gone out of his way to blame Pakistan for. He's engaged in hate-mongering & anti-Pakistan hysteria domestically through a manipulated media (all those anonymous government sources that pop up with fantastic claims on Indian TV and print) to the point where any major terrorist attack HAS to be blamed on Pakistan.
                Well then maybe you need to do a better job persuading India about those efforts : )

                Kashmir based groups ? which ones. Allah Tigers, People's league, JKLF do not exist. Those are Kashmiri

                Instead what do we find ? Jaish e Mohamed, Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar e Tayiba

                Those aren't kashmiri based groups. Those are all Pak based groups. They still carry out operations in India because they have not been cut off at the source.

                India is not escalating. The provocation or terrorist act is the act of escalation.
                Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Mar 19,, 20:50.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                  What you have is the right to share evidence to preempt terrorist attacks against India. I don't recall India sharing intelligence against upcoming attacks (since the justification for bombing trees and rocks in Balakot was to pre-empt some alleged terrorist plot), nor do I recall India sharing intelligence with Pakistan to preempt attacks in the recent past.
                  How well did that sharing of evidence work with the Americans ? they found people that were named being warned and disappearing.

                  If you share evidence on people you know will attack India and take them out then great. Otherwise we will do it. We won't be sharing evidence before we take action. I have no idea why we stick to such a legalistic approach. Why do we play dossier dossier.

                  Do you expect a murderer to hang himself once evidence is presented ?

                  With respect to Pulwama, as I pointed out, the bomber, explosives, materials and abettors were all local. IED/VBIED expertise is widely available within ISIS, AQ, AT, TTP, JuA etc it's not exactly some 'ISI State secret', so in essence India has absolutely ZERO credible evidence tangibly tying the Pulwama attack to Pakistan.
                  That expertise is not widely available otherwise we'd be seeing more Pulwama's and over a period of time. A report earlier pointed out the bomb maker was an Afghan veteran, slipped into the country in Dec. I mean for high intensity type blasts.

                  That said, India is free to bomb trees and rocks as 'self defence' (like it did in Balakot), and Pakistan is free to respond and shoot down IAF jets in response (as it did when responding to Indian violations of Pakistani airspace after Balakot). Keep in mind that the PAF exercised restraint with the initial IAF incursion (standard peacetime RoE of warning intruding aircraft and escorting them back out of Pakistani airspace). That element of surprise and those RoE's will not be in place next time.
                  Why retaliate if only trees and rocks got hit. You can defend yourself or deny it ever happened. That would be the VFM move.

                  The onus is now on Pakistan to show restraint. No longer on India. You had those RoE's in place because that's what your sponsors told you to do. In fact if what i read is true in the future those restraints are going to be maintained. All your partners will be telling you to defuse the situation. For Pakistan to prevent attacks on India.

                  My side has made it clear that our attacks are on terrorists who we believe intend to attack India. We no longer will fight terrorists in India alone, anywhere in Pakistan is fair game as well.

                  Our actions do not target the Pakistani state, its infrastructure, its economy, its people or its military.

                  Pathankot was claimed by the UJC and Pulwama was local so JeM has been largely quiet in recent years which goes back to my point of 'containment', while not ideal, has worked.
                  Pathankot & Uri weren't locals. That was a highly trained jihadi unit. Where did they get that training from.

                  Do the UN sanctions prevent him from speaking publicly?
                  Where is the proof LeT has been dismantled. If it was then why would he preach violence against India. He's obviously doing it for recruitment purposes.

                  So much for those sanctions. They may have value for terrorists elsewhere.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Mar 19,, 21:15.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                    India seeks broad consensus in UNSC

                    Don't know what it will accomplish, but the squeeze is getting tighter for Pakistan.
                    Finally i got the answer to what it will accomplish. Sometimes the answer is right there in front but I didn't see it : )

                    EXACTLY what the title of that article says. Build consensus in favour of India's view on how to deal with terrorism. Meaning the PROCESS of getting him designated is more important than the result regardless what it may be. We got 14 out of 15 to agree with us. Basically lobbying on a global level. Longer China keeps putting it off the stronger the consensus gets for us. Listen to the professor



                    Just as it says, should there be an misadventure then Gwadar & Karachi are vulnerable. The former is a signal to China.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Mar 19,, 01:02.

                    Comment


                    • The Paks have moved their F16's to forward bases and are undertaking night flying. They've shifted terror camps to FATA now.

                      IAF asks for fresh ammo as Pakistan moves up F16s, takes terror camps to FATA | ET | Mar 20 2019

                      We'll be watching launchpads in PO J&K and taking them out should they present themselves as targets. If they can't get people into India then we've contained them right there.
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Mar 19,, 13:19.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Well then maybe you need to do a better job persuading India about those efforts : )

                        Kashmir based groups ? which ones. Allah Tigers, People's league, JKLF do not exist. Those are Kashmiri

                        Instead what do we find ? Jaish e Mohamed, Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar e Tayiba

                        Those aren't kashmiri based groups. Those are all Pak based groups. They still carry out operations in India because they have not been cut off at the source.

                        India is not escalating. The provocation or terrorist act is the act of escalation.
                        Typo - meant to say 'Kashmir focused groups based in Pakistan'.

                        With respect to 'persuading India', that's not going to happen, especially under Modi. Deflecting the failure of Indian policies in Kashmir and hiding the local component (and scapegoating Pakistan) allows the Indian government to absolve itself of responsibility.

                        There is nothing Pakistan can do if local Kashmiris choose to take the path of violence and utilize local (within India) resources to carry out those acts of violence, as occurred in Pulwama.
                        Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                        https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          How well it fits in with the Pak military agenda on India. Never against. That would be a death sentence.

                          The timing of the attack to help Modi win. That's interference in Indian politics. Without Pulwama its was 50-50 whether the BJP would get a second term. I'd say its more certain now.

                          Modi is good for business and the Pak military too : )
                          All of which is little more than speculation based on an outlandish and outdated understanding of Pakistan and specifically the Pakistani military.

                          Why didn't you take them out ? Loose cannons are a liability

                          Nothing is outdated, that mindset has remained so remarkably consistent since 1947 that is ingrained by now.

                          The other thing that is consistent is what you said. That things are changing. When one looks for what has changed one finds the same old.

                          The line was more credible with Nawaz, look what happened to him. It has zero credibility with IK. A month after he entered office and people heard him they realised there was nothing to see. Nothing to expect. Nothing to hope for.

                          I don't think in this case the US is propping up India as a hedge against China. This is the US using India to control Pakistan to achieve their objectives in Afghanistan.
                          it's completely outdated and reflects both a paranoia and an intransigence towards broader thinking. The Indian mindset is stuck in 1947.
                          Those stone throwers & protesters are overground workers. What normal person takes their kids to a stone pelting event. What normal person interferes in security operations and comes in between. These people are trained to do that. They are not normal civilians.
                          People who are sick and tired of being occupied and humiliated.
                          Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                          https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                            Typo - meant to say 'Kashmir focused groups based in Pakistan'.

                            With respect to 'persuading India', that's not going to happen, especially under Modi. Deflecting the failure of Indian policies in Kashmir and hiding the local component (and scapegoating Pakistan) allows the Indian government to absolve itself of responsibility.
                            The reason security comes out is because the politics failed. Now the reason put across to me is the militants make it impossible for politics to work.

                            The govt isn't absolving itself. And i don't think any one will give them a pass. But do they hold all the blame ?

                            Where is the security ? without that nothing else is possible. This is by design. Only separatist views allowed, anything pro India will be resisted.

                            I was hopeful when the BJP & PDP came together that they would moderate their more extreme impulses. Unfortunately it didn't work out.

                            There is nothing Pakistan can do if local Kashmiris choose to take the path of violence and utilize local (within India) resources to carry out those acts of violence, as occurred in Pulwama.
                            Who is leading them. So many commanders taken out. Where do they come from. They're not local.

                            What is positive is these guys are being caught because the population is reporting them.

                            Pulwama stands out from other acts. I would not club them together. The local ones are smaller in scale.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Mar 19,, 15:29.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              How well did that sharing of evidence work with the Americans ? they found people that were named being warned and disappearing.
                              Not when it came to Al Qaeda. And we're talking about preempting attacks based on specific intelligence related to a potential attack, not just pointing out the Hafiz Saeed lives there and there is a camp over there. The camps and militants, as I've already pointed out, will be mainstreamed gradually. What Pakistan can act on is to neutralize those actors that refuse to follow the 'containment' policy, which is where intelligence sharing from India comes into play.
                              If you share evidence on people you know will attack India and take them out then great. Otherwise we will do it. We won't be sharing evidence before we take action. I have no idea why we stick to such a legalistic approach. Why do we play dossier dossier.
                              Because you don't have the capability to 'take them out' without suffering military losses for even trying. The recent events have clearly established that.

                              That expertise is not widely available otherwise we'd be seeing more Pulwama's and over a period of time. A report earlier pointed out the bomb maker was an Afghan veteran, slipped into the country in Dec. I mean for high intensity type blasts.
                              The expertise may not be widely available but it is available, and it doesn't need the ISI or any other Pakistani state institution to provide it. VBIED's were not common in Pakistan either until the TTP and associated groups gained that expertise - who provided it to them?
                              Why retaliate if only trees and rocks got hit. You can defend yourself or deny it ever happened. That would be the VFM move.
                              The fact that the IAF hit nothing but trees and rocks is irrelevant - the fact is that the IAF violated Pakistani airspace and dropped bombs on sovereign Pakistani territory without justification. Pakistan was well within her rights to respond in self defence and make a point that future incursions would also be countered and civilian and/or military casualties in Pakistan by such actions will result in India incurring military casualties. The PAF 'pinged' several Indian military facilities during its attacks - that was to make a point.
                              The onus is now on Pakistan to show restraint. No longer on India. You had those RoE's in place because that's what your sponsors told you to do. In fact if what i read is true in the future those restraints are going to be maintained. All your partners will be telling you to defuse the situation. For Pakistan to prevent attacks on India.
                              Pakistan is showing restrain - India violated Pakistani airspace first and carried out an unjustified bombing in Balakot. Who do you think is going to get Pakistan to back down from a response against a future Indian incursion, and with what Army? 'Pressure' only works when it's backed up with action, and given the prompt response by the PAF, there is going to be no time for the US (which, lets face it, is really the only country that is willing and able to bring about any kind of tangible pressure on Pakistan) to apply pressure. Pakistan will make this a zero sum game for India, and 'restraint' will only be applied once Pakistan has evened the score or gone ahead, as it did recently.
                              My side has made it clear that our attacks are on terrorists who we believe intend to attack India. We no longer will fight terrorists in India alone, anywhere in Pakistan is fair game as well.
                              And the Pakistani side has made clear that India will suffer military casualties when Pakistan reacts in self-defence to Indian aggression.
                              Pakistan is not going to be a theocratic state to be ruled by priests with a divine mission - Jinnah
                              https://twitter.com/AgnosticMuslim

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Agnostic Muslim View Post
                                it's completely outdated and reflects both a paranoia and an intransigence towards broader thinking. The Indian mindset is stuck in 1947.
                                Its for your guys to show tangible change. Permanent change. That is how you will win people over.

                                Saying things have changed or will change without any tangible results on the ground isn't credible.

                                Attacks in the rest of India have come down dramatically since 26/11 but we see an uptick in violence towards the state & Kashmir from 2013 onwards.

                                Am not going with what the govt says but analysts watching developments on the ground. Nothing new is being observed.

                                If attacks in one area reduce they increase elsewhere. So where is the observable change in thinking then.

                                Only thing changing is tactics.

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