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Thread: The US 2020 Presidential Election

  1. #91
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    So:
    1. I don't think Trump himself is anything more than a harbinger, but I'm cynical. Things like fraying of NATO, hitting the press, pushing the judiciary to change by eliminating the filibuster: all things I expected the US to undergo.
    2. None of the institutions are doing better. The next President now has lee-way to do a LOT of legally shady stuff, while bashing the press at the same time, and forcing the party to more or less march in lockstep with him. Obama himself was already on Constitutionally dubious grounds, aided by an adoring press: how bad do you think he would have been had he been allowed to pack the Supreme Court, overtly order political investigations into his rivals, and had basically no dissent from his party?

    Things are going in a baddddddd direction.

    Voters may be more motivated...but...that's because they are hyper-partisan.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  2. #92
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    going back to the topic of this thread, what is interesting about the current horse race of the Dem primary is that Biden continues to hold strong but Sanders has come roaring back while overtaking Warren.

    i came across this twitter thread here via Krugman that seems to have pretty decent reasoning on why that is the case, from a center-left perspective (vs centrist or leftist, as he makes clear).

    https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/statu...99440243826688

    1/OK I want to rant about Warren, Bernie, the primary election, and how the topic shifted from stuff I was passionate about to stuff that leaves me cold.

    2/Earlier this year Warren came on strong with a series of bold plans for remaking the U.S. corporate system.

    I loved that, because the U.S. corporate system badly needs remaking.

    3/Warren's co-determination plan seemed like it could change the power relations between workers and owners, make companies invest more (and invest in their workers more), and change the way people thought about their employers.

    4/Warren's plan for "economic patriotism" was the smart export-focused industrial policy push I've been asking for.

    5/Warren's private equity plan had some technical issues, but overall it's very important to reverse the financialization of the U.S. economy.

    6/Warren's labor plan is great too. Sectoral bargaining would revive the U.S. labor movement.

    7/Her green manufacturing plan was also good industrial policy. Picking winners often fails, but climate change means we HAVE to pick this winner, or else.

    8/Her climate plans were also great.

    9/Warren's program seemed to offer the chance to fundamentally change the way U.S. business worked.

    It was stuff other people mostly weren't talking about before. It was smart. It was fresh. It had some rough edges, but all plans do. It was what I wanted to see.

    10/Then THIS happened. The debate moderators kept pressing Warren on health care - an issue she hadn't emphasized. She got bogged down in the question of whether she'd raise taxes.

    11/Warren responded by releasing two plans - one to pay for single-payer without "tax increases", another to phase in single-payer over time.

    By doing this, she changed the focus of her campaign to Bernie Lite. Centering health care, rather than reform of our industrial system.

    12/Obviously this was a POLITICAL miscalculation. It took the wind out of her campaign's sails, pleased absolutely no one, sent leftists toward Bernie and centrists toward (shudder) Buttigieg. Unless she makes a comeback, health care is what sunk Warren.

    13/But even worse, her pivot to health care changed the focus of the Democratic primary campaign.

    Instead of making the campaign about changing the way business in America is done, Warren allowed it to become all about health care. And that is bad.

    14/Democrats spent decades of political capital pushing through an ok-but-not-great universal health care system (Obamacare). Now it looks like they might spend more decades of political capital vilifying that same system and pushing for a big replacement.

    15/Now, Bernie has released his own versions of Warren's plans to strengthen labor, promote exports, curb financialization, etc. Sometimes these plans are even bolder than Warren's...on paper.

    But that's just "7 minute abs". Bernie's priority is health care.

    16/And beyond Bernie, it seems like the entire Democratic electorate AND the Democratic elite want to focus on health care, health care, health care. It's like the ghost of Ted Kennedy is in charge of the party.

    17/I don't like copays and deductibles, but are copays and deductibles really what's wrecking this country?

    Are we really going to spend the next decade or more fighting like hell just to overturn the Obamacare system so we can get rid of copays and deductibles?

    18/We need to change the way work is done in this country.

    We need to change the way people are paid in this country.

    We need to change the way companies invest in this country.

    Warren would have done that.

    Bernie will shout about it, but I don't think he'll do it.

    19/Bernie's followers and the DSA people talk a big game about "smashing capitalism", and if you talk to them one on one they'll talk about worker co-ops and stuff. But ultimately Bernie's campaign is just 1980s Ted Kennedy tax-and-spend, but MOAR MOAR MOAR.

    20/Which isn't bad, I'm all for more tax-and-spend. We need higher taxes and it would be nice if people didn't have to pay out-of-pocket health costs. But it leaves our system's deeper problems untouched.

    21/Warren's ideas for industrial and labor reform are (were?) genuinely new and fresh. They would have made America a trailblazer instead of just catching up with France.

    Hopefully President Bernie will actually do some of them, or at least try to.

    22/But the 2020 primary campaign's shift from industrial and labor reform to health care health care health care has made me pessimistic about the Democratic party's willingness and ability to change the things that really need changing in our economy.

    Oh well.

    (end)
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  3. #93
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    There is no evidence that Noah Smith has any idea what he is talking about. He is the same age as me and only had a brief tenure as an assistant professor before becoming a full-time columnist. The dude is basically Tom Friedman, perhaps smarter, but with vastly less professional and life experience. Dude really strikes me as a guy who is constantly trying to keep up an image.

    On the actual merits, Warren's shtick was always "I have a plan for that." Her only plan that received any scrutiny was health care. It fell apart because her plan for health care is obviously garbage and obviously not thought through. The same applies to her wealth tax plan, which only ever received scrutiny on Twitter. It is correct to assume ALL of her plans are garbage. What makes you think Elizabeth Warren can fundamentally restructure American corporate governance to be better when she can't even think through the basic ramifications of her own wealth tax and her solution to health care is the moronic Medicare-For-All?
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  4. #94
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The only question that matters is how well has Trump managed to drain the swamp since he entered office ?

    He has a habit of telling people how he follows up on campaign promises.
    He has indeed, quite opposed to his public persona, been extraordinarily patient. Why t'was only a year ago he was saying he was simply going to declassify the information around the FBI and CIA spying on him that is only now starting to dribble out. Make of that what you wish :-)
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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  5. #95
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    On the actual merits, Warren's shtick was always "I have a plan for that." Her only plan that received any scrutiny was health care. It fell apart because her plan for health care is obviously garbage and obviously not thought through. The same applies to her wealth tax plan, which only ever received scrutiny on Twitter. It is correct to assume ALL of her plans are garbage. What makes you think Elizabeth Warren can fundamentally restructure American corporate governance to be better when she can't even think through the basic ramifications of her own wealth tax and her solution to health care is the moronic Medicare-For-All?
    in this case, though, i put that Twitter thread there because the -political- reasoning is sound (differing from the policy debate here). a focus on healthcare essentially makes her Sanders-lite. she had a different shtick.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  6. #96
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    An Orangemanbad/Bernie match up? Oh sweet Saint Thomas More, hear my prayer...

    Suddenly, Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign is being taken seriously.
    For months, the Vermont senator was written off by Democratic Party insiders as a candidate with a committed but narrow base who was too far left to win the primary. Elizabeth Warren had skyrocketed in the polls and seemed to be leaving him behind in the race to be progressive voters’ standard-bearer in 2020.
    But in the past few weeks, something has changed. In private conversations and on social media, Democratic officials, political operatives and pundits are reconsidering Sanders’ chances.
    Story Continued Below

    “It may have been inevitable that eventually you would have two candidates representing each side of the ideological divide in the party. A lot of smart people I’ve talked to lately think there’s a very good chance those two end up being Biden and Sanders,” said David Brock, a longtime Hillary Clinton ally who founded a pro-Clinton super PAC in the 2016 campaign. “They’ve both proven to be very resilient.”
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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  7. #97
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i came across this twitter thread here via Krugman that seems to have pretty decent reasoning on why that is the case, from a center-left perspective (vs centrist or leftist, as he makes clear).

    https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/statu...99440243826688

    1/OK I want to rant about Warren, Bernie, the primary election, and how the topic shifted from stuff I was passionate about to stuff that leaves me cold.

    2/Earlier this year Warren came on strong with a series of bold plans for remaking the U.S. corporate system.

    I loved that, because the U.S. corporate system badly needs remaking.

    3/Warren's co-determination plan seemed like it could change the power relations between workers and owners, make companies invest more (and invest in their workers more), and change the way people thought about their employers.

    4/Warren's plan for "economic patriotism" was the smart export-focused industrial policy push I've been asking for.

    5/Warren's private equity plan had some technical issues, but overall it's very important to reverse the financialization of the U.S. economy.

    6/Warren's labor plan is great too. Sectoral bargaining would revive the U.S. labor movement.

    7/Her green manufacturing plan was also good industrial policy. Picking winners often fails, but climate change means we HAVE to pick this winner, or else.

    8/Her climate plans were also great.

    9/Warren's program seemed to offer the chance to fundamentally change the way U.S. business worked.

    It was stuff other people mostly weren't talking about before. It was smart. It was fresh. It had some rough edges, but all plans do. It was what I wanted to see.
    I counted 5 plus points in there and then this one negative

    10/Then THIS happened. The debate moderators kept pressing Warren on health care - an issue she hadn't emphasized. She got bogged down in the question of whether she'd raise taxes.

    11/Warren responded by releasing two plans - one to pay for single-payer without "tax increases", another to phase in single-payer over time.

    By doing this, she changed the focus of her campaign to Bernie Lite. Centering health care, rather than reform of our industrial system.

    12/Obviously this was a POLITICAL miscalculation. It took the wind out of her campaign's sails, pleased absolutely no one, sent leftists toward Bernie and centrists toward (shudder) Buttigieg. Unless she makes a comeback, health care is what sunk Warren.

    13/But even worse, her pivot to health care changed the focus of the Democratic primary campaign.

    Instead of making the campaign about changing the way business in America is done, Warren allowed it to become all about health care. And that is bad.
    How does just one negative overturn the other five ?

    14/Democrats spent decades of political capital pushing through an ok-but-not-great universal health care system (Obamacare). Now it looks like they might spend more decades of political capital vilifying that same system and pushing for a big replacement.
    Thus proving the repubs right that Obamacare was crap

    18/We need to change the way work is done in this country.

    We need to change the way people are paid in this country.

    We need to change the way companies invest in this country.

    Warren would have done that.

    Bernie will shout about it, but I don't think he'll do it.
    Those 'we need to change' bits are true for most countries that aren't resource rich exporters

    Hopefully President Bernie will actually do some of them, or at least try to.

    22/But the 2020 primary campaign's shift from industrial and labor reform to health care health care health care has made me pessimistic about the Democratic party's willingness and ability to change the things that really need changing in our economy.

    Oh well.

    (end)
    You don't have a lot to say about Biden ? is that because you don't think his chances are good of becoming the Democrat candidate

  8. #98
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    He has indeed, quite opposed to his public persona, been extraordinarily patient. Why t'was only a year ago he was saying he was simply going to declassify the information around the FBI and CIA spying on him that is only now starting to dribble out. Make of that what you wish :-)
    Hrm, that means not much to show for since he entered office

  9. #99
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Hrm, that means not much to show for since he entered office
    Well, apart from a booming economy, record Black and Hispanic employment and surviving not one but two coup attempts :-))

    Oddly enough, considering he's *-checks list-* a racist Islamophobic sexist racist fascist idiot child orange god emperor moron traitor racist f*ckwit racist did-I-mention-racist? totalitarian half-wit, he seems to have out-fought every single lefty in the entire continental US. With growing popularity.
    What that says about the left, I couldn't possibly comment.....
    Last edited by Parihaka; 29 Dec 19, at 02:57. Reason: edited to add traitor at Snapper's insistence
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  10. #100
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Well, apart from a booming economy, record Black and Hispanic employment and surviving not one but two coup attempts :-))

    Oddly enough, considering he's *-checks list-* a racist Islamophobic sexist racist fascist idiot child orange god emperor moron racist f*ckwit racist did-I-mention-racist? totalitarian half-wit, he seems to have out-fought every single lefty in the entire continental US. With growing popularity.
    What that says about the left, I couldn't possibly comment.....
    This is all good. It means he's figured out how to work with the swamp if not clean it out.

    There never is an incentive to clean it out because it will work with any one.

    If you try to clean it up you find out everybody is tainted.

    Nuclear option is off the table.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Dec 19, at 01:27.

  11. #101
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    This is all good. It means he's figured out how to work with the swamp if not clean it out.

    There never is an incentive to clean it out because it will work with any one.

    If you try to clean it up you find out everybody is tainted.

    Nuclear option is off the table.
    Yup. As the wall morphed into secure borders, the swamp morphed into the committed democrat operatives, who are happily outing themselves.
    Vindman still has a job, professionally staring out the window twiddling his pencil and hoping someone might come by and talk to him.
    Same as
    Name:  EM6LKelUEAAmnnw.jpg
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    Perhaps the two can go out for dinner together.

    Hell, even Bruce Orr is required to front up to his office in the basement each day. The rest of Washington has just gone 'meh, lets make a deal'.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Well, apart from a booming economy, record Black and Hispanic employment and surviving not one but two coup attempts :-))
    Easy to get a booming economy from a booming deficit and debt. But that all Trumpkin ever did until he got into money laundering. Want to know why Trumpkin Tower Moscow never happened? Just common sense for the Putin mafia; their money is already safe in Muscovy but makes nothing - they need it abroad - in places they like to enjoy the 'perversions' and the spiritual and moral 'decadence'. I mean floating around on superyachts with Belorusian 'sex therapists' is easy in the West.

    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Oddly enough, considering he's *-checks list-* a racist Islamophobic sexist racist fascist idiot child orange god emperor moron racist f*ckwit racist did-I-mention-racist? totalitarian half-wit, he seems to have out-fought every single lefty in the entire continental US. With growing popularity.
    What that says about the left, I couldn't possibly comment.....
    Add traitor.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Add traitor.
    Terribly sorry, shall add that to the list
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

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  14. #104
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Yup. As the wall morphed into secure borders, the swamp morphed into the committed democrat operatives, who are happily outing themselves.
    Vindman still has a job, professionally staring out the window twiddling his pencil and hoping someone might come by and talk to him.
    Same as
    Name:  EM6LKelUEAAmnnw.jpg
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    Perhaps the two can go out for dinner together.

    Hell, even Bruce Orr is required to front up to his office in the basement each day. The rest of Washington has just gone 'meh, lets make a deal'.
    It's funny how swamp & wall have parallels in my country.

    The trouble with cleaning the swamp is need to catch some big fish, he thought he had one, bidens and then they moved on him.

    Now the result is both get off, both sides happy.

    Public got a punch & judy show

    Are you not entertained...

  15. #105
    Dirty Kiwi Senior Contributor
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It's funny how swamp & wall have parallels in my country.

    The trouble with cleaning the swamp is need to catch some big fish, he thought he had one, bidens and then they moved on him.

    Now the result is both get off, both sides happy.

    Public got a punch & judy show

    Are you not entertained...
    The politics is where I'm entertained, especially the tête-à-têtes in places such as this.
    The civil servant coup, far less so. Where America leads, the rest follow. I'm less than impressed that Comey, Brennan et al's behaviour may be thought of as the 'new normal' amongst their contemporaries. Hang em as a reminder to all our employees.
    In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

    Leibniz

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