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Thread: 2019 American Political Scene

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Ditto. We're just x number of Big Macs from the solution to our national embarrassment.
    He'll be 73 in June. Maybe with all the stress that this year is certainly going to heap upon him, he'll do us all a favor and cash in sooner rather than later.

    Can't wait for Cohen to start testifying in open session. And that's just the warm-up act.
    Congress is just warming up. The Dems have had time to think about how to do this. They are going to pick apart everything Trump has done for the past 4 years and beyond. Then there is Mueller, who is just chugging along rolling up the legion of dodgy people Trump has had doing his bidding. Grab your popcorn.


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  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    as in the primaries, or Nancy Pelosi's election as Majority Leader.



    who said discussion of likability is "taboo"? if anything, i'm acknowledging that the connection between likability and sexism is there and it's probably engrained, unresolvable for quite some time.

    numerous psychological studies have looked into how personality traits are perceived differently by gender among the public. ambition is fine in a man, looked down upon in a woman. this doesn't mean that any mention of likability is inherently sexist, just that it is something used as a cudgel much more often against female politicians than male politicians. i can't think of any female politician off the top of my head where she gets top marks for "likability", whereas i can think of multiple male politicos who bask in that particular glow.
    A handful of men out of how many elected officials? It's not easy to become a popular politician at a nation-wide level. You're talking an exceedingly small sample size of Americans who can possibly do something like that.
    Maybe HRC and Warren are just legitimately unlikable people, and maybe Pelosi isn't particularly likable because she looks like she's going to yell at for not opening the door to Old Country Buffet at 6:01AM on the dot, particularly when you are running a thankless, partisan position. McConnell and Schumer aren't likable and have low favorability ratings, and Paul Ryan was a decently likable guy and still unpopular in the exact same position.


    If you want a likable female politician, then see if Klobaucher will run, since she's pretty popular in her own state. Or convince Oprah or Michelle Obama to run. Or convince Taylor Swift to run in 2024 (2028?) You can't fault Americans for not liking HRC/Pelosi/Warren, they just aren't super-charismatic people, and they aren't going to appeal to everyone. This is immediately obvious if you put them side-by-side with Biden, Obama, Clinton, or Beto, none of who come across as ambitious, just articulate, passion, cool guys.


    FWIW, despite their structural advantages, a Dem President running a progressive "declare emergency" package like Trump is, is going to end up losing to more middle-of-the-road-GOP candidate. Also, Dems still have intra-party conflict, and the base is only going to claw itself apart if it does achieve permanent legislative majorities. That's how party politics inevitably works in the 2-party system. Except then, of course, you'll be losing to AOC "large and in charge," who will be coming after your money once she realizes her 70% tax on $10 million+ doesn't actually raise much money.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 12 Jan 19, at 00:35.
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  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    Congress is just warming up. The Dems have had time to think about how to do this. They are going to pick apart everything Trump has done for the past 4 years and beyond. Then there is Mueller, who is just chugging along rolling up the legion of dodgy people Trump has had doing his bidding. Grab your popcorn.
    Not until the shut down is over.

    If Trump stays the course the pressure builds on Pelosi. Refusing to fund border physical security while SNAP receipents and federal workers go without is not a winning argument with anyone. Holding fast to deliver a campaign promise err hack hack protect Americans from criminal aliens is a winning argument with at least his base. AS the pressure mounts on her she is place din a lose lose situation. If she gives in she gets punked by Trump and angers all the hard left freshman. If she doesn't she hurts Dem candidates in 2020... Afterall Congress has a lower approval rating than Trump and and no matter how hated he is on the coast the path to the White House runs through middle America.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Not until the shut down is over.

    If Trump stays the course the pressure builds on Pelosi. Refusing to fund border physical security while SNAP receipents and federal workers go without is not a winning argument with anyone. Holding fast to deliver a campaign promise err hack hack protect Americans from criminal aliens is a winning argument with at least his base. AS the pressure mounts on her she is place din a lose lose situation. If she gives in she gets punked by Trump and angers all the hard left freshman. If she doesn't she hurts Dem candidates in 2020... Afterall Congress has a lower approval rating than Trump and and no matter how hated he is on the coast the path to the White House runs through middle America.
    I actually agree with this. While Democrats can claim that they are simply standing by an earlier agreement with Congress Republicans that Trump walked back on, a few billion dollars for border security doesn't sound too unreasonable. By refusing to budge even a little, it is the Democrats who may end up looking unreasonable.

    And as you say, Trump will appear a hero to his base for fighting for his campaign promise; which while not a majority is a significant 35-40% of the electorate. I think the Dems should have simply offered a little more money, made a deal and moved on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Not until the shut down is over.
    Yet another reason for Trump to keep the government shut down. Of course, that doesn't do diddly squat for the state investigators that are breathing down his neck.

    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    If Trump stays the course the pressure builds on Pelosi. Refusing to fund border physical security while SNAP receipents and federal workers go without is not a winning argument with anyone. Holding fast to deliver a campaign promise err hack hack protect Americans from criminal aliens is a winning argument with at least his base. AS the pressure mounts on her she is place din a lose lose situation. If she gives in she gets punked by Trump and angers all the hard left freshman. If she doesn't she hurts Dem candidates in 2020... Afterall Congress has a lower approval rating than Trump and and no matter how hated he is on the coast the path to the White House runs through middle America.
    I agree with just about all of this as well.

    The only 2 niggling points are: Funding physical border security that actually helps the situation and funding Trump's vanity project/campaign promise are two completely different things.

    And second, the majority of America is blaming Trump for the shutdown. As well they should, given that he stated, with absolutely no ambiguity, that he personally owns the shutdown.

    Naturally a pathological liar like Trump isn't going to remember that...and neither will his hardcore supporters.


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  6. #51
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    GOP rejected Obama's executive reach, but accepts Trump's

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama stunned Republicans when he bypassed Congress and, relying on what he called his pen and his phone, used executive powers to enact his agenda, including protecting millions of young immigrants from deportation.

    Now, with President Donald Trump proposing an even more dramatic end-run around Congress to build his promised border wall with Mexico, many Republicans are uneasily cheering him on.

    The potential use of a national emergency declaration by Trump for the border wall shows the extent to which the party is willing to yield on treasured values — in this case, the constitutional separation of powers — to steer clear of confronting the White House and give the president what he wants.

    It's a different accommodation from just a few years ago. Then Republicans often called out Obama as overstepping his authority in using executive actions when Congress failed to act on White House priorities. They complained about Obama as "king," ''emperor" or "tyrant."

    Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., a leader of the House Freedom Caucus, said most conservatives would go along with Trump's decision to declare a national emergency as "the last tool in the tool box" for building the wall.

    "Does the president have the right and the ability to do it? Yes. Would most of us prefer a legislative option? Yes," Meadows told reporters this week. "Most conservatives want it to be the last resort he would use. But those same conservatives, I'm sure, if it's deployed, would embrace him as having done all he could do to negotiate with Democrats."

    Other Republicans say Trump has few options left after talks broke down at the White House over his long-promised border wall.

    "This is not something you would want to do," said Rep. Doug Collins of Georgia, now the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee.

    "But we've been put into this position," he said. "The Democrats are forcing him into a choice of doing the national emergency because they won't sit down and discuss it."

    On Saturday, the partial government shutdown will stretch in its 22nd day and Trump's plans for ending the stalemate are shifting yet again.

    Trump indicated he was slowing what had appeared to be momentum toward the national emergency declaration as the way out of the stalemate. Invoking the power would allow him to tap unspent Defense funds to build the long-promised wall along the border that was central to his presidential campaign.

    On the campaign trail, the president often said at rallies that Mexico would pay for the wall. But Mexico has refused forcing Trump to ask Congress for the money instead. Trump walked out of negotiations this week when Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democrats refused to give, saying they support dollars for border security just not the big wall Trump envisions. They call the wall ineffective and say it's a symbol that does not reflect the nation's values.

    After having talked for days about invoking the national emergency power to unleash the funds, the president hit pause Friday. "I'm not going to do it so fast," Trump said during an event Friday at the White House.

    Experts have said even though the president may have the authority to invoke powers under the 1976 National Emergencies Act, using it will almost certainly bring on a court battle. The courts did not allow President Harry Truman to nationalize the U.S. steel industry during the Korean War.

    Moreover, they say, it could lead the country into uncharted areas. Declaring an emergency could give the president access to many other powers, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law.

    "The president thinks that he can do whatever he wants by declaring something a national emergency," said Sen. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii who serves on the Judiciary Committee. "I think it's a very dangerous thing."

    But what cuts to the core of the concern on Capitol Hill is the executive branch wading into legislative domain to shift money Congress has already approved to the wall.

    The constitution provides the Congress, not the White House, the power of the purse, and lawmakers are not eager to cede their role to the president, even for a wall many Republicans support.

    Lawmakers on Capitol Hill objected to the administration eyeing shifting unspent disaster funding Congress approved last year for Army Corps of Engineer projects to help hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico, Texas and other areas to pay for the wall. By Friday, lawmakers said they were being told those projects will not be touched and the White House was now looking for other funds to pay for the border wall.

    Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, part of the GOP leadership, said at a forum Friday in Austin that the lawmakers "worked very hard to make sure that the victims of Hurricane Harvey - their concerns are addressed and Texas is able to rebuild."

    He said, "I will tell you that I will oppose any reprogramming of Harvey disaster funds."

    Republican Richard Shelby of Alabama, the chairman of the Appropriations Committee, acknowledged the dilemma, especially as the shutdown continues with no end in sight.

    Trump invoking a national emergency "might break an impasse and it needs to be broken one way or another," Shelby said as the Senate adjourned. But he prefers a negotiated settlement with Congress. "I'm still hoping we'll have a breakthrough, but right now I don't see one."
    ________________

    This is something that bothers the shit out of me, although it shouldn't, given how hypocritical politicians are.

    The hilarious part is how much Trump has "accomplished" via Executives Orders versus how little he's accomplished via proposed legislation...in a GOP-controlled Congress. That alone tells me how much of an utter failure Donald Trump is.
    Last edited by TopHatter; 12 Jan 19, at 23:34.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Not until the shut down is over.

    If Trump stays the course the pressure builds on Pelosi. Refusing to fund border physical security while SNAP receipents and federal workers go without is not a winning argument with anyone. Holding fast to deliver a campaign promise err hack hack protect Americans from criminal aliens is a winning argument with at least his base. AS the pressure mounts on her she is place din a lose lose situation. If she gives in she gets punked by Trump and angers all the hard left freshman. If she doesn't she hurts Dem candidates in 2020... Afterall Congress has a lower approval rating than Trump and and no matter how hated he is on the coast the path to the White House runs through middle America.
    I couldn't disagree with this more, except that Trump is playing to his hardcore base.

    Pelosi can certainly stay the course, because this is essentially 'Trump's shutdown', he said so himself, and that is how people perceive it, even if he didn't do so ('perk' of all the executive focus in recent years).

    To give in would open the floodgates for this sort of hostage taking tactic, and as you say would do far more harm to the Democrats than holding for however long they must. They really don't have a choice in it if they want to win 2020. To do otherwise would demoralize their base, and energize Trump's.

    The same holds true for Republicans too, thus the impasse. The issue is, Trump is the one who publically took responsibility for the shutdown, and he is also in the executive office.

    For those whose minds aren't made up already, that's critical. He is the face of government, and the face of this shutdown.

    So the inbetweens will increasingly blame Trump, as will (most) Federal workers and their families for him using them as hostages for his wall (which is in fact totally on him and his party).

    Under the assumption that Middle-America is predominantly red, this doesn't matter, because they'll vote Trump anyways, but that isn't the case, the swing states are still swinging and things can indeed turn blue as 2018 showed.

    There is still time until the next election, but this shutdown already will stay in the minds of federal workers and their family at least at the polls.

    I'm convinced Democrats won't cave due to this, but we will see with McConnell and the senate. Aside from that, the only way I can see this ending is Trump jumping into the fire and declaring a national emergency, to great criticism.

    :edit: approval polls aren't definitive proof, but 538 is a well respected site, and its polling trend would seem to support the conclusion that Americans are trending towards blaming Trump.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/
    Last edited by LongLurker; 13 Jan 19, at 15:20.

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    inexile,

    I actually agree with this. While Democrats can claim that they are simply standing by an earlier agreement with Congress Republicans that Trump walked back on, a few billion dollars for border security doesn't sound too unreasonable. By refusing to budge even a little, it is the Democrats who may end up looking unreasonable.

    And as you say, Trump will appear a hero to his base for fighting for his campaign promise; which while not a majority is a significant 35-40% of the electorate. I think the Dems should have simply offered a little more money, made a deal and moved on.
    doesn't matter if the Dems look unreasonable (not that they will-- they're currently winning the PR battle, for whatever that's worth).

    Congressional Dems simply CANNOT give into Trump under the current circumstances. they already compromised with the Congressional Republicans in negotiations prior to the shutdown, with tentative Trump approval. giving in now means that if this happens again, Republicans will know in advance they can roll House Dems.

    if Trump restarts government, -then- the two sides can negotiate. in fact, Dems offered the full $25 billion for the wall, not just $5 billion, in return for DREAMer protections. Trump walked away.

    right now Trump wants $5 billion without ANY countervailing offer to Dems. for that matter, Trump himself shot down the attempt at "compromise" that Pence offered, which was half that amount. the whole point of this entire exercise is a power game where Trump is trying at all costs to smash down House Dems negotiation power. it's not a goddamn "emergency" because Trump's OWN BUDGET didn't include $5 billion for a wall.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Most honest people can answer this question with a two letter negative;


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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    inexile,



    doesn't matter if the Dems look unreasonable (not that they will-- they're currently winning the PR battle, for whatever that's worth).

    Congressional Dems simply CANNOT give into Trump under the current circumstances. they already compromised with the Congressional Republicans in negotiations prior to the shutdown, with tentative Trump approval. giving in now means that if this happens again, Republicans will know in advance they can roll House Dems.

    if Trump restarts government, -then- the two sides can negotiate. in fact, Dems offered the full $25 billion for the wall, not just $5 billion, in return for DREAMer protections. Trump walked away.

    right now Trump wants $5 billion without ANY countervailing offer to Dems. for that matter, Trump himself shot down the attempt at "compromise" that Pence offered, which was half that amount. the whole point of this entire exercise is a power game where Trump is trying at all costs to smash down House Dems negotiation power. it's not a goddamn "emergency" because Trump's OWN BUDGET didn't include $5 billion for a wall.
    EXACTLY!!!

    The Democrats approved the budgetary request for the FY 2019 budget that was submitted as part of the budget. This $5.7 billion is above and beyond and was never in the budget....which is how this stuff works. Now if there is staff work which shows specifically that the additional funding is needed, then it can be submitted as a supplemental to the budget AFTER the budget passes. That is how it has worked for decades.

    As for 2020....I like what GVChamp siad. Personally I like SEN Amy Klobuchar
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Ditto. We're just x number of Big Macs from the solution to our national embarrassment.
    He'll be 73 in June. Maybe with all the stress that this year is certainly going to heap upon him, he'll do us all a favor and cash in sooner rather than later.
    Um, no. That is not a solution to anything. That'll just make Trump the guy whom the Dems could never beat. And give rise to more Trump copycats who will hold sway over the Republican base. Not to mention the deluge of conspiracy theories that the deep state bumped him off.

    No, Trump has to be seen to comprehensively lose in 2020 against a Dem candidate. That unfortunately means he will stay in power till then. It also means that millenials have to get off their asses and vote in 2020 to make sure that happens. Even in the midterms, when the Dem base was fired up, the millenial voting percentage was abysmal.
    Last edited by Firestorm; 14 Jan 19, at 19:01.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Um, no. That is not a solution to anything. That'll just make Trump the guy whom the Dems could never beat. And give rise to more Trump copycats who will hold sway over the Republican base
    We really need to abandon this myth that Trump "beat" Hilary Clinton, vis-a-vis what the majority of the American people wanted and voted for. It was the Electoral College that put Donald Trump in the White House, not the American people. As much as I loath Clinton, she beat him soundly in the national popularity contest. And I doubt there's anyone left of Trump's malignant blend of extremely-high profile going back many decades, a phony "self-made millionaire" mythlogy and all the rest of the fecal matter that makes Trump, Trump.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Not to mention the deluge of conspiracy theories that the deep state bumped him off.
    That will happen regardless of literally anything.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    No, Trump has to be seen to comprehensively lose in 2020 against a Dem candidate. That unfortunately means he will stay in power till then. It also means that millenials have to get off their asses and vote in 2020 to make sure that happens. Even in the midterms, when the Dem base was fired up, the millenial voting percentage was abysmal.
    I'd rather see him resign and retreat in disgrace like Nixon before he can be convicted. That would be enough to shatter even his narcissistic ego.

    And of course it wouldn't shield him in the slightest any state charges hanging over his head. To say nothing of the rest of his crime family.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    I'd rather see him resign and retreat in disgrace like Nixon before he can be convicted. That would be enough to shatter even his narcissistic ego.

    And of course it wouldn't shield him in the slightest any state charges hanging over his head. To say nothing of the rest of his crime family.

    Trial only and transparency suffices to clear the slate; all laid clean, honesty, truth.

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    I'd rather see him resign and retreat in disgrace like Nixon before he can be convicted. That would be enough to shatter even his narcissistic ego.

    And of course it wouldn't shield him in the slightest any state charges hanging over his head. To say nothing of the rest of his crime family.
    as much as i'd like to see that happen, this is not going to be in the cards. Trump has a far harder grip on Congressional Republicans than Nixon ever did. see this current shutdown, where McConnell can't (and won't even try) whip enough GOP votes for a supermajority. which, given Dem lockstep, shouldn't be -that- hard. and this is over very small stakes for the GOP compared to impeachment/conviction.

    i don't think anything can really shatter his ego, not even impeachment. he'd just say the Deep State robbed him. he'll be even noisier and Twitter-prolific once he gets out.

    what's darkly funny for me is the evolution of never-Trumper conservatives like Jennifer Rubin or Max Boot. they went from railing against Trump as the anti-thesis of Reaganite GOP values, only to find out to their shock and horror that most of the GOP base is actually far more attuned to Trump than Reagan...
    Last edited by astralis; 15 Jan 19, at 16:30.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    We really need to abandon this myth that Trump "beat" Hilary Clinton, vis-a-vis what the majority of the American people wanted and voted for. It was the Electoral College that put Donald Trump in the White House, not the American people. As much as I loath Clinton, she beat him soundly in the national popularity contest. And I doubt there's anyone left of Trump's malignant blend of extremely-high profile going back many decades, a phony "self-made millionaire" mythlogy and all the rest of the fecal matter that makes Trump, Trump.
    It is not a myth. He did beat her. Whether it was fair and square or not depends on how much the Russians were actually involved in undermining the elections. But the Electoral college argument is getting old. It is not as if Hillary found out she needed to win the EC after the election was over. She always knew that just getting the most votes overall wasn't enough and she needed to win the EC. If she didn't pay enough attention to that and manage her campaign accordingly, then it is her own fault.

    That will happen regardless of literally anything.
    The voices will be far more shrill if he just dies suddenly (even of natural causes) than if he merely loses an election. And it may not stop at voices alone.

    I'd rather see him resign and retreat in disgrace like Nixon before he can be convicted. That would be enough to shatter even his narcissistic ego.

    And of course it wouldn't shield him in the slightest any state charges hanging over his head. To say nothing of the rest of his crime family.
    Bad for his ego maybe, but it will be a lot healthier for the country as a whole if a demagogue like Trump is repudiated at the ballot box rather than in the judiciary or elsewhere.
    Last edited by Firestorm; 15 Jan 19, at 21:04.

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