Page 17 of 18 FirstFirst ... 89101112131415161718 LastLast
Results 241 to 255 of 258

Thread: Chinese actions in the South China Seas

  1. #241
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
    Join Date
    03 Aug 03
    Posts
    8,105
    Aquino is an incompetent leader. He should have made the incident escalate into a full blown military confrontation. The AFP might be defeated by the Malaysian military, but it will leave a scar in the way PH deals with Malaysia and there will be long term hostilities between the two countries and muzzies will be more marginalized and the PH will be forced to appropriate a larger budget into the Armed forces and focus on China will be lessened and China will continue to devour south east asia and make it a Chinese turf and slowly kick out the muzzzes. This is a Win win situation for all humanity and a big defeat for Abu troung the lslamist
    So please break it down for us what exactly they were to do to escalate ))
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  2. #242
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,189
    Quote Originally Posted by Pnoy View Post
    Mattis: US will defend Japanese islands claimed by China
    https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/asia/...sit/index.html
    Was listening to a book talk by Michael Hanlon , Senkaku Paradox.

    Paradox is fighting makes no sense but walking away could have catastrophic consequences.

    China plays these games with its neighbours. PH is not alone here.

    Some reply by doing crazy things like pick a fight with them in a third country ie Doklam.

    So what will the US do if China occupies Senkaku ?

    Nobody knows but he thinks the US will not start WW3 over islands nobody lives on and whose ownership USG has no opinion of. Don't want a repeat of Austrian archduke in 1914.

    There are eight islands. One's gone, fortify the remaining seven with some US or Japanese forces. Move some more of the 7th fleet in. x2 or 3 whatever Trump's doing to China for the long haul. Economic sanctions. The salami slicing comes with costs. Signal that this will be the last aggression that does not lead to a conflict. Red line.

    He wants responses that doesn't see US or Japan firing the first shot if China grabs a sliver here or there.

    Earlier in 2014 a journalist asks General John Wissler what would the US do if we woke up one day and the Chinese had occupied one of the islands

    His reply was if so instructed, they could take it back without requiring to put any boots ashore. This means either an amphibious assault or just bombing the trespassers on the island.

    Is this credible. maybe or not.

  3. #243
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,368
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    His reply was if so instructed, they could take it back without requiring to put any boots ashore. This means either an amphibious assault or just bombing the trespassers on the island.
    A lot easier than that. Just blockade the thing. There's no fresh water there.

  4. #244
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,189
    Great. just great. That will be the case with all of those reclaimed islands in the SCS or elsewhere.

    Little islands that no one can spend much time on.

    Only good for short stay girl scout excursions.

    Did the PLA officer who ordered these actions get a promotion ?

  5. #245
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    5,126
    ^ Both of you are forgetting one thing. Blockading SLOC is one thing, but if ADIZ is not enforced then PLAAF can fly supplies to those islands, including water.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  6. #246
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,368
    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    ^ Both of you are forgetting one thing. Blockading SLOC is one thing, but if ADIZ is not enforced then PLAAF can fly supplies to those islands, including water.
    Have to do SEAD first. Western destroyers have some very nasty SAMs.

    However, in the case of those disputed Islands with Japan, everyone has to leave during Winter. Wind and waves would make short work of any residence. Being exposed to hurricane scale winds day in/day out does not make for a nice deployment. The entire camp could be swept out to sea. The only reason why anyone want those pieces of rock is to extend their EEZ claims 200 miles from those position ... but nobody is going to live there.

  7. #247
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    5,126
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Have to do SEAD first. Western destroyers have some very nasty SAMs.
    I guess if USN blockades SLOCs, then ADIZ also comes into effect simultaneously?

    However, in the case of those disputed Islands with Japan, everyone has to leave during Winter. Wind and waves would make short work of any residence. Being exposed to hurricane scale winds day in/day out does not make for a nice deployment. The entire camp could be swept out to sea. The only reason why anyone want those pieces of rock is to extend their EEZ claims 200 miles from those position ... but nobody is going to live there.
    Very interesting.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  8. #248
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,189
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The only reason why anyone want those pieces of rock is to extend their EEZ claims 200 miles from those position
    Aha, China has finally accepted Land + 200 miles of sea = EEZ

    All disputes in the SCS will now come to an end.

    Yes ?

  9. #249
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    5,126
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Aha, China has finally accepted Land + 200 miles of sea = EEZ

    All disputes in the SCS will now come to an end.

    Yes ?
    Very clever. Good thought.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  10. #250
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,368
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Aha, China has finally accepted Land + 200 miles of sea = EEZ

    All disputes in the SCS will now come to an end.

    Yes ?
    Since when has any country been consistent with their national claims?

  11. #251
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,189
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Since when has any country been consistent with their national claims?
    On one hand question UNCLOS and on the other use it. Weak position & case.

    But this is about power and if some arrangement can be found where the plaintiff withdraws the complaint then a modus vivendi can be had.

    Tenuous, subject to change according to the govt of the day. What does China do then when the previous agreements get tossed out. Start the pressure again ?

    Even if the country is indebted there is no guarantee that government of the day just turns round and say screw you we're not paying back any more and your leases will soon be terminated. China is hardly going to land marines on their coast.

    heh, this is no plan for China.

    They're winging it on a hope and a prayer.

    The only way they keep the balls in the air is their influence and power has to grow by leaps and bounds and there are powerful players with their own interests at stake backing them. I just cannot see this happening at this point given China's behaviour.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 18 Jul 19, at 22:27.

  12. #252
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,189
    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Have to do SEAD first. Western destroyers have some very nasty SAMs.
    What about the forces on the island ? is there nothing in their arsenal to threaten ships enforcing the blockade ? all this A2AD business.

    Course the first shot by them means their island base turns into a crater.

    Maybe A2Ad will be more effective from the mainland only, to keep foreign navies at a distance. Easier replenishment as well.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 20 Jul 19, at 23:14.

  13. #253
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,368
    Not surprising considering the history of Chinese trying military shortcuts.

    Insufficent shore bombardment vessels? Put field artillery and tanks on the decks of freighters.
    Manpower shortages? Beef up a regiment to do a division's job.
    You don't have enough aircraft carriers? Build islands with runways.

    Here's the problem. These islands have to find the enemy in order to kill the enemy. Kinda hard to do when the enemy is a moving ship not wanting to be found. Your island, however, ain't going nowhere. The enemy has already found your island wheras the Chinese have to achieve weapons lock before they can fire. Western warships can stand outside of detection range and lobe cruise missiles galore.

    Yeah, not well thought out.

  14. #254
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    9,189
    So the Senkaku bit of his book is a non-event



    He also mentions the same dynamics at play if Russia were to occupy a town in say Estonia. Idea being to throw NATO into disarray.

    Envoke article 5 or not. Moscow gets to watch NATO tear itself apart over this question.

    I think i'm getting what he means by reading between the lines

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    A lot easier than that. Just blockade the thing. There's no fresh water there.
    Even though your suggestion makes perfect military sense he does not want military to be the sole arbiter. Because military sees every problem as a nail in need of a hammer.

    Consider this hypothetical. Blockade is enforced, hot headed PLA officer fires off some missiles. Maybe hits something, in response the western ships crater the Chinese island base. All goes FUBAR. US got sucked into some one else's territorial dispute. Now China & US are in a conflict.

    He wants to avoid such an eventuality. Lower downs for better or worse cannot be the ones that get conflicts going.

    So his recommendation of responses is fortify the remaining islands and economic warfare and not a blockade (i'm presuming) aka military response. He wants better integration between depts that usually do not talk to each other. He wants more stakeholders with votes over potential military responses. The treasury dept should be in on the war planning discussion.

    Nobody does planning better than the DoD and he's nervous that they are the first guys to be called in and the response invariably is military.

    Trump hasn't started any wars, people were saying at the outset he has surrounded himself with generals but then he's also nervous that Trump's messaging can lead to deterrence failure. Two examples. Korea 1950 & Kuwait 1990.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 22 Jul 19, at 09:09.

  15. #255
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    03 Sep 17
    Posts
    1,368
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Trump hasn't started any wars, people were saying at the outset he has surrounded himself with generals but then he's also nervous that Trump's messaging can lead to deterrence failure. Two examples. Korea 1950 & Kuwait 1990.
    He doesn't follow history very well. Of all the nuclear confrontations between the US and the USSR, it was Moscow, not Washington DC who backed down. The US will not be suckered into someone else's territorial dispute. The US will defend its vital sea trade lanes. The current conflict with Iran should serve as the example. Trump is ready to bomb Iran. It was others who talked him out of it when intel could not confirm it was the Iranians who planted those mines.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. China to seize foreign ships in disputed seas
    By cyppok in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 04 Dec 12,, 04:03
  2. Iowa on the high seas...
    By tbm3fan in forum Battleships Board
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 02 Jun 12,, 20:47
  3. China claims they've found 30 Illegal oil platforms in South China Sea
    By cr9527 in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 26 Mar 12,, 05:32
  4. China charts course toward secure South China Sea
    By VietPhuong in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 13 Jul 09,, 10:41
  5. South-east Asia: Indo-Chinese Flashpoint?
    By Rani Lakshmibai in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 159
    Last Post: 23 Jun 05,, 13:44

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •